300 Win club

[soccer10k]

Tom Glavine now has 283 wins and, on a Mets team seemingly on the rise, it appears that if he plays next year, he should get there. But will any other active players get there? The only active pitchers with 200+ wins are(excluding the 300+ game winners of course):

 

Tom Glavine      283
Randy Johnson    269
Mike Mussina     230
David Wells      227
Jamie Moyer      207
Pedro Martinez   202
Curt Schilling   200

[Drew Doughty]

not soon. i think in 15-20 years you'll be seeing Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano being mentioned in this same kind of discussion though.

[sweetpeteman]

not soon. i think in 15-20 years you'll be seeing Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano being mentioned in this same kind of discussion though.

 

Only if Z gets onto a team that can actually win his games.

[Drew Doughty]

not soon. i think in 15-20 years you'll be seeing Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano being mentioned in this same kind of discussion though.

 

Only if Z gets onto a team that can actually win his games.

 

it could happen!

[Cubbies4Life]

I don't think we will be seeing anyone in the near future joining the 300 list but with the new wave of young pitchers like Liriano, Felix Hernandez, Zambrano, Kazmir we might start seeing some new guys added with them.

[Andy]

None of these guys are getting to 300 wins, I think Maddux will be the last one probably ever. For a pitcher to get to 300 wins he needs to AVERAGE 15 wins/year for TWENTY years. For a comparison, Johan Santana, who is 27, has 63 wins and is averaging about 12.5 wins per season since he became a starter full time in 2002. He would need to continue that pace until the age of 46 to get to 300.

[Neuby]

Glavine for sure will stick around till he gets his 300th , Johnson I don't think has enough in the tank to stick around another 2 years but I could be wrong. Johnson might be able to prolong his career with a move to the bullpen which I have heard him mention before the start of this season.

[soccer10k]

None of these guys are getting to 300 wins, I think Maddux will be the last one probably ever. For a pitcher to get to 300 wins he needs to AVERAGE 15 wins/year for TWENTY years. For a comparison, Johan Santana, who is 27, has 63 wins and is averaging about 12.5 wins per season since he became a starter full time in 2002. He would need to continue that pace until the age of 46 to get to 300.

 

Glavine has 283 and is currently 8-2 on the year. If the Mets continue to have a good team Glavine will have a chance if he pitches next year and doesn't get hurt. Even if he ends this year with a modest 15 wins that puts him at 290 going into next year. I think he gets it if he sticks around.

[Diffusion]

None of these guys are getting to 300 wins, I think Maddux will be the last one probably ever. For a pitcher to get to 300 wins he needs to AVERAGE 15 wins/year for TWENTY years. For a comparison, Johan Santana, who is 27, has 63 wins and is averaging about 12.5 wins per season since he became a starter full time in 2002. He would need to continue that pace until the age of 46 to get to 300.

 

Santana has made 118 career starts, and in those starts he has 59 career wins (he has 4 career wins as a reliever). That's exactly a win every other start. To reach 300 career wins then, Santana needs another 237 wins. So, at his current career pace, Santana would need to make another 474 starts. Starting 33-34 games a year, and not missing any starts, he should reach that point midway through the 2021 season, when he'd be 42. I think that's a better guestimate.

 

However, Santana, being a pitcher, isn't particularly likely to never miss a start over the next 14 years or so, and it'd be something else if he continued this torrid pace of his. On the other hand though, it's entirely possible that he may wind up at some point on a team capable of scoring runs for him, and that he therefore might be able to maintain or improve upon his current pace without the need for continuing to be quite as ridiculously good for such a ridiculously period of time.

 

It's possible that the Twins' reluctance to put him straight into the rotation full-time as of 2002 may end up costing him a shot at 300 wins, as might their pretty pathetic offence. It's hard enough to win 300 games as it is, it's harder to it when you're not a full-time starter before the age of 25 and your offence doesn't ever score any runs for you.

 

 

Through 27 years and 78 days (modern-ish era 300-game winners)

 

Greg Maddux - 102 wins (reached 300 aged 38 )

Roger Clemens - 95 wins (aged 40)

Tom Seaver - 95 wins (aged 40)

Don Sutton - 91 wins (aged 41)

Tom Glavine - 81 wins (might do it next year aged 41)

Steve Carlton - 77 wins (aged 38 )

Nolan Ryan - 69 wins (aged 43)

Johan Santana - 63 wins

Gaylord Perry - 24 wins (aged 43)

Phil Niekro - 4 wins (aged 46)

[CubsBullsBears]

Tom Glavine now has 283 wins and, on a Mets team seemingly on the rise, it appears that if he plays next year, he should get there. But will any other active players get there? The only active pitchers with 200+ wins are(excluding the 300+ game winners of course):

 

Tom Glavine      283
Randy Johnson    269
Mike Mussina     230
David Wells      227
Jamie Moyer      207
Pedro Martinez   202
Curt Schilling   200

Glavine, yes. Johnson, Mussina, maybe. Pedro, if his toe hold up, and he stays around long enough, yes. Boomer and Moyer, no way

[3finger]

Through 27 years and 78 days (modern-ish era 300-game winners)

 

Greg Maddux - 102 wins (reached 300 aged 38 )

Roger Clemens - 95 wins (aged 40)

Tom Seaver - 95 wins (aged 40)

Don Sutton - 91 wins (aged 41)

Tom Glavine - 81 wins (might do it next year aged 41)

Steve Carlton - 77 wins (aged 38 )

Nolan Ryan - 69 wins (aged 43)

Johan Santana - 63 wins

Gaylord Perry - 24 wins (aged 43)

Phil Niekro - 4 wins (aged 46)

 

Age each guy first appeared in the majors:

 

Maddux - 20

Clemens - 21

Seaver - 22

Sutton - 21

Glavine - 21

Carlton - 20

Ryan - 19

Perry - 23

Niekro - 25

 

And for the new kids:

 

King Felix - 19

Z - 20

Kazmir - 20

Bonderman - 20

Cain - 20

Liriano - 21

Santana - 21

 

I like Bonderman's chances the best, although I could easily see none of these guys making it. Unlike the other pitchers on this list, Bonderman is on a team that's already good and looks like it will stay that way for a while.

 

Cain is about to become a very good pitcher for a very bad team. That formula worked at times for Carlton, but he started every fourth day.

 

Z has a chance if the Cubs minor league system produces above expectations and alien invaders seize Dusty Baker.

 

In any event, as Diffusion suggested, most of these guys will be derailed by injuries -- maybe not really bad ones, but enough to keep them short of 300.

[BigSlick]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

[Backtobanks]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

 

Spoken like a true Cub fan.

[BigSlick]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

 

Spoken like a true Cub fan.

 

huh? Explain to me how a pitcher who goes out there and posts up 7 shut out innings and gets a no decision doesn't get recognized for his performance, but Mark Buehrle can give up 7 runs in the 1st and still win his game.

 

Its a pretty lame stat. Maybe the lamest of all. I think quality starts should be the determining factor, along with ERA, K/9 and BB/9

[Roast]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

 

Spoken like a true Cub fan.

 

huh? Explain to me how a pitcher who goes out there and posts up 7 shut out innings and gets a no decision doesn't get recognized for his performance, but Mark Buehrle can give up 7 runs in the 1st and still win his game.

 

Its a pretty lame stat. Maybe the lamest of all. I think quality starts should be the determining factor, along with ERA, K/9 and BB/9

 

He was making a joke about how the cubs dont win.

[Roast]

Oh, and as for the "wins are overrated" argument.

 

I totally agree.

 

On a year to year basis. Yea, every year you see a pitcher who really isnt that great hit 15-20 wins (see Estes, Ortiz) because his team scores for him alot. But as the years drag on you wont see those guys repeat those performances. If someone reaches 300 wins, they're studs.

[BigSlick]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

 

Spoken like a true Cub fan.

 

huh? Explain to me how a pitcher who goes out there and posts up 7 shut out innings and gets a no decision doesn't get recognized for his performance, but Mark Buehrle can give up 7 runs in the 1st and still win his game.

 

Its a pretty lame stat. Maybe the lamest of all. I think quality starts should be the determining factor, along with ERA, K/9 and BB/9

 

He was making a joke about how the cubs dont win.

 

I get it, I just thought he was a rival fan or something.

 

Forget it.

[TB_11]

Is this the right time to mention that wins are overrated?

 

Yea?

 

Ok.

 

Wins are overrated.

 

True, but it's hard to argue that anyone who got into the 300 win club in the modern era was anything less than a great pitcher for a lengthy period of time. The "wins are overrated argument" comes into play if someone mentions that "because pitcher A didn't get 300 wins, he doesn't deserve to be in the HOF," which is often the argument against Blyleven in the HOF.

[soccer10k]

Oh, and as for the "wins are overrated" argument.

 

I totally agree.

 

On a year to year basis. Yea, every year you see a pitcher who really isnt that great hit 15-20 wins (see Estes, Ortiz) because his team scores for him alot. But as the years drag on you wont see those guys repeat those performances. If someone reaches 300 wins, they're studs.

 

And that's the key. When looking at the whole career of a player wins are not overrated because, like Roast said, it takes a great pitcher to keep getting 15-20 wins year after year.

[sunnydoo]

I would have to say that Glavine will get there, especially since he reworked his deal so that he can head to the ATL next year.

 

I would also say Moose will get there too, IF he stays with the Yanks (he is a potential FA at seasons end). He is going to need some major run support to help him pick up 68 more wins over the last 5 years of his career. But 13 wins a year should be doable.

 

Johnson is a ? mark, but should make it to the HoF because of the marks he has set while being left-handed.