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say there were to be a fire sale on the northside. who stays, who goes, and what for? how would you rebuild this organization from what's there?

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Posted

With our fourth loss in a row, 11th loss of the last 12 games, and 13th out of our last 15...this season is over. Wood's return will not turn it around. Neither will Lee or Prior. While those three might make us respectable, there is too big of a hole and too many teams to pass. The teams that are ahead of us in the division, while they may have holes, they aren't so weak to allow us to pass them.

 

It's time for Hendry to realize that this season is over and begin the firesale early. The earlier the parts are traded, the more value they have. The fans are already tired of this team, so alienating them should not be an issue. Hendry failed to address the main weaknesses of this team in the offseason, so now he must bite the bullet and begin to position this club for the future. Acquiring young talent that can be utilized either with the team or traded next offseason to re-position this team is a must. Here are some hypothetical moves I'd look at.

 

1. Attempt to trade Kerry Wood to the Rangers for either Danks or Diamond.

Wood would have to be convinced to waive his no-trade clause, but might be willing if Rangers' owner Tom Hicks agrees to pick up his 2007 option at 13 million. Danks has struggled this year at AA Frisco while Diamond is doing a little better. I'd prefer Diamond, but either would be a good return on Wood and would add to the young pitchers that the Cubs have in the minors. Acquiring one early would allow the Cubs time to assess whether they would like to keep the player or use in a future trade.

 

I could see the Yankees having interest in Wood. Their talent shelf is pretty barren, but packaging Wood with another player like Walker or Jones could get the Yankees really interested. I'm not sure if Wood would waive his no-trade to go to NY, but like the Rangers, the Boss could pick up the 2007 option. I'd want C.J Henry and Phillip Hughes if I'm dealing with the Yankees, but neither of those guys excite me.

 

2. Maddux to the Padres for George Kottaras and Brad Barker. The Padres could use another pitcher, especially now with the injury to Woody Williams. Maddux should flourish in Petco and probably wouldn't object to pitching for the Padres. Kottaras would add a nice catching prospect who projects well.

 

Another possible destination for Maddux could be Arizona. I'd want either Quentin or Gonzalez back in any deal with Arizona.

 

A third possible destination could be Oakland. There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

3. I'd openly shop Pierre and get as much value as possible. I'd look to hopefully find a team that overvalues him and doesn't look to closely at his current numbers. Packaging him with another player might help maximize his value.

 

4. I'd trade Williamson to whoever wanted him as well. I'd basically call all 29 teams and let them know he's available and take the best prospect or prospects I could get.

 

4. Any of Hairston,Rusch, Perez, Jones, and Walker would also be shopped. All of those players will have varying degrees of value across the league.

 

I'd try to find players to build around the core of Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Murton, and Cedeno.

 

With Prior, Zambrano, Marshall, Guzman, Williams, Ryu, and Hill are the core of the rotation, but not all will be counted on for 2007. The remainder of the season will determine which to keep and which to dump.

Posted (edited)

I would trade Wood, Miller, Jones, Hairston, Rusch, and Pierre (the latter three won't get much, admittedly).

 

You accumulate as many pitching prospects as you can from those trades, which the Cubs have a track record of developing. They'll give Hendry trading chips for later, at an appreciated value.

 

You offer Ryu and change soon to the Diamondbacks to get Carlos Quentin, then play Pie in CF and Quentin in RF, to get them some ML experience THIS year. I would sign Walker for 2007, which gives EPatt a chance to develop and arrive at Wrigley full-time at some point in 2007.

 

I would sign Maddux for 2007 and let him tutor Marshall, Guzman (#4-5 starters) and Hill (swing man out of the pen).

 

The team is just a few moves and health from being a very competitive team in 2007.

Edited by TXCubsFan
Posted
say there were to be a fire sale on the northside. who stays, who goes, and what for? how would you rebuild this organization from what's there?

 

 

Obviously Baker and his staff are history.

 

Keep Lee, Ramirez, Wood, Prior, Z, Miller, Cedeno, Murton, Howry, Eyre, Dempster, Theriot, Ohman and Barrett.

 

Package Maddux, Marshall, Hill and Walker for RF/2nd base prospects.

 

Dump Pierre, Jones, other bums.

 

Call up Pie for CF and let him take his lumps.

 

You know whats really sad? We have an immense amount of talent. It's really taken some bad management (and injuries) to make us this bad.

Posted (edited)

Vance,

 

I agree with much of what you're saying. I might add that a Wood and Miller and change trade with the Rangers for both Diamond and Danks might be possible for the Rangers if they're in the hunt for the pennant.

 

I disagree about Maddux. If Hendry can convince Maddux to stay for 2007, I believe his value as a tutor for young pitching would be worth the extra payroll. He's been a good influence on Marshall, and I've noticed that Hill and Ryu have sat next to him in the dugout. I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty suggested the seating arrangement. Besides, I think you could get Quentin for Ryu and Marmol, tops.

 

IMO, Williams does not thrive on pressure. A trade to KC for whatever you can get would be good for KC, the Cubs, and Williams.

Edited by TXCubsFan
Posted
With our fourth loss in a row, 11th loss of the last 12 games, and 13th out of our last 15...this season is over. Wood's return will not turn it around. Neither will Lee or Prior. While those three might make us respectable, there is too big of a hole and too many teams to pass. The teams that are ahead of us in the division, while they may have holes, they aren't so weak to allow us to pass them.

 

It's time for Hendry to realize that this season is over and begin the firesale early. The earlier the parts are traded, the more value they have. The fans are already tired of this team, so alienating them should not be an issue. Hendry failed to address the main weaknesses of this team in the offseason, so now he must bite the bullet and begin to position this club for the future. Acquiring young talent that can be utilized either with the team or traded next offseason to re-position this team is a must. Here are some hypothetical moves I'd look at.

 

1. Attempt to trade Kerry Wood to the Rangers for either Danks or Diamond.

Wood would have to be convinced to waive his no-trade clause, but might be willing if Rangers' owner Tom Hicks agrees to pick up his 2007 option at 13 million. Danks has struggled this year at AA Frisco while Diamond is doing a little better. I'd prefer Diamond, but either would be a good return on Wood and would add to the young pitchers that the Cubs have in the minors. Acquiring one early would allow the Cubs time to assess whether they would like to keep the player or use in a future trade.

 

I could see the Yankees having interest in Wood. Their talent shelf is pretty barren, but packaging Wood with another player like Walker or Jones could get the Yankees really interested. I'm not sure if Wood would waive his no-trade to go to NY, but like the Rangers, the Boss could pick up the 2007 option. I'd want C.J Henry and Phillip Hughes if I'm dealing with the Yankees, but neither of those guys excite me.

 

2. Maddux to the Padres for George Kottaras and Brad Barker. The Padres could use another pitcher, especially now with the injury to Woody Williams. Maddux should flourish in Petco and probably wouldn't object to pitching for the Padres. Kottaras would add a nice catching prospect who projects well.

 

Another possible destination for Maddux could be Arizona. I'd want either Quentin or Gonzalez back in any deal with Arizona.

 

A third possible destination could be Oakland. There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

3. I'd openly shop Pierre and get as much value as possible. I'd look to hopefully find a team that overvalues him and doesn't look to closely at his current numbers. Packaging him with another player might help maximize his value.

 

4. I'd trade Williamson to whoever wanted him as well. I'd basically call all 29 teams and let them know he's available and take the best prospect or prospects I could get.

 

4. Any of Hairston,Rusch, Perez, Jones, and Walker would also be shopped. All of those players will have varying degrees of value across the league.

 

I'd try to find players to build around the core of Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Murton, and Cedeno.

 

With Prior, Zambrano, Marshall, Guzman, Williams, Ryu, and Hill are the core of the rotation, but not all will be counted on for 2007. The remainder of the season will determine which to keep and which to dump.

 

Wood's value might be at an all time low. I understand cutting your losses, but if Wood can stay healthy for one or two months, he will likely up his value dramatically, at which point you can decide what direction to take.

 

He's still young. Personally, I keep him around.

 

I don't think Maddux nets Quentin, but who knows?

 

I sell high with Marshall, who took advantage of some very weak lineups to get off to a good start. Perhaps he could go with Maddux.

 

Since this isn't really a firesale (we're keeping plenty of elite, high-paid talent) I throw Ryu, Hill and Marshall at Florida for Cabrera and see if they bite.

 

Unfortunately, I think what we need most is a change in the organizations philosophy.

Posted

 

You know whats really sad? We have an immense amount of talent. It's really taken some bad management (and injuries) to make us this bad.

 

Immense? I'd say the Cubs have a handful of immensely talented players, but after Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Lee, and Ramirez the talent level is mediocre at best.

Posted
I would trade Wood, Miller, Jones, Hairston, Rusch, and Pierre (the latter three won't get much, admittedly).

 

You accumulate as many pitching prospects as you can from those trades, which the Cubs have a track record of developing. They'll give Hendry trading chips for later, at an appreciated value.

 

You offer Ryu and change soon to the Diamondbacks to get Carlos Quentin, then play Pie in CF and Quentin in RF, to get them some ML experience THIS year. You sign Walker for 2007, which gives EPatt a chance to develop and arrive at Wrigley full-time at some point in 2007.

 

I would sign Maddux for 2007 and let him tutor Marshall, Guzman (#4-5 starters) and Hill (swing man out of the pen).

 

The team is just a few moves and health from being a very competitive team in 2007.

 

I'm not quite sure what Wood and Miller are going to get you since they've been DLed all season. Obviously they need to pitch and show that they're healthy before anyone is going to take them. I really think Wood's trade value is so low that we would be better off keeping him and making a decision late in the season.

Posted
I would trade Wood, Miller, Jones, Hairston, Rusch, and Pierre (the latter three won't get much, admittedly).

 

You accumulate as many pitching prospects as you can from those trades, which the Cubs have a track record of developing. They'll give Hendry trading chips for later, at an appreciated value.

 

You offer Ryu and change soon to the Diamondbacks to get Carlos Quentin, then play Pie in CF and Quentin in RF, to get them some ML experience THIS year. You sign Walker for 2007, which gives EPatt a chance to develop and arrive at Wrigley full-time at some point in 2007.

 

I would sign Maddux for 2007 and let him tutor Marshall, Guzman (#4-5 starters) and Hill (swing man out of the pen).

 

The team is just a few moves and health from being a very competitive team in 2007.

 

I'm not quite sure what Wood and Miller are going to get you since they've been DLed all season. Obviously they need to pitch and show that they're healthy before anyone is going to take them. I really think Wood's trade value is so low that we would be better off keeping him and making a decision late in the season.

 

I understand your concern about their health, but the Rangers have an excellent chance of signing Wood to a long-term contract. They're weakness has been starting pitching, which could be remedied very quickly if Wood and Miller start for them. We remove the risk that Danks and Diamond may not become good starters. With both the As and the Angels playing mediocre ball, this might be the time for the Rangers to take a chance on veteran pitching, which with luck might get them to the World Series.

Posted

 

Wood's value might be at an all time low. I understand cutting your losses, but if Wood can stay healthy for one or two months, he will likely up his value dramatically, at which point you can decide what direction to take. He's still young. Personally, I keep him around.

 

The truth is we have two options with Wood. One is to keep him for 2007 at 13 million or let him be a FA and try to re-sign him. If we do the second option, we're on equal footing with the other teams. The first option makes little sense, no matter how well he pitches the remainder of the season. While I'm not making this deal tomorrow, I think it would be part of an eventual sale. Furthermore, if Wood looks healthy, the Rangers (or Yankees or Diamondbacks) get maximum value by getting him sooner rather than later.

 

 

I don't think Maddux nets Quentin, but who knows?

 

You may be right, but if not Quentin, I'd take Carlos Gonzalez.

I sell high with Marshall, who took advantage of some very weak lineups to get off to a good start. Perhaps he could go with Maddux.

 

If we're not going to contend, which we aren't, I keep my youngsters until at least the offseason. Marshall is a keeper for now...we'll determine how long in September.

 

Since this isn't really a firesale (we're keeping plenty of elite, high-paid talent) I throw Ryu, Hill and Marshall at Florida for Cabrera and see if they bite.

 

Unfortunately, I think what we need most is a change in the organizations philosophy.

 

But it is a firesale. I'm not opposed to getting Cabrera or any other mega talent, but I'd wait and make those moves in the fall. Getting and keeping as much young talent now positions the Cubs to have lots of players and prospects to offer in those type of salary cutting moves this fall.

Posted
Vance,

 

I agree with much of what you're saying. I might add that a Wood and Miller and change trade with the Rangers for both Diamond and Danks might be possible for the Rangers if they're in the hunt for the pennant.

 

I disagree about Maddux. If Hendry can convince Maddux to stay for 2007, I believe his value as a tutor for young pitching would be worth the extra payroll. He's been a good influence on Marshall, and I've noticed that Hill and Ryu have sat next to him in the dugout. I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty suggested the seating arrangement. Besides, I think you could get Quentin for Ryu and Marmol, tops.

 

IMO, Williams does not thrive on pressure. A trade to KC for whatever you can get would be good for KC, the Cubs, and Williams.

 

I think Maddux has to go. If you like Maddux, just outbid everyone for him this fall. His agent is Boras so you won't get any deals by signing him early.

 

Furthermore, by sending him to another team, the Cubs could increase the liklihood of re-signing him as they won't have to worry with the pesky arbitration deadline if they don't offer and they won't I would handle Maddux differently, even letting him have some say as to where he is traded.

 

While Quentin might could be had for a Ryu or Marmol, I'd rather have all three. Maddux is an impending FA, so that means he's considered lost for this season unless he signs the extension NOW. In doing a firesale correctly, emotional ties cannot cloud the judgement. Any player not signed for 2007 must be offered to maximize the returns.

 

I love Walker, but with his contract up after 2006, he's gone if I'm the GM. I might try to get him back in 2007, but I'd trade him without hesitation now.

Posted
Vance,

 

I agree with much of what you're saying. I might add that a Wood and Miller and change trade with the Rangers for both Diamond and Danks might be possible for the Rangers if they're in the hunt for the pennant.

 

I disagree about Maddux. If Hendry can convince Maddux to stay for 2007, I believe his value as a tutor for young pitching would be worth the extra payroll. He's been a good influence on Marshall, and I've noticed that Hill and Ryu have sat next to him in the dugout. I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty suggested the seating arrangement. Besides, I think you could get Quentin for Ryu and Marmol, tops.

 

IMO, Williams does not thrive on pressure. A trade to KC for whatever you can get would be good for KC, the Cubs, and Williams.

 

I think Maddux has to go. If you like Maddux, just outbid everyone for him this fall. His agent is Boras so you won't get any deals by signing him early.

 

Furthermore, by sending him to another team, the Cubs could increase the liklihood of re-signing him as they won't have to worry with the pesky arbitration deadline if they don't offer and they won't I would handle Maddux differently, even letting him have some say as to where he is traded.

 

While Quentin might could be had for a Ryu or Marmol, I'd rather have all three. Maddux is an impending FA, so that means he's considered lost for this season unless he signs the extension NOW. In doing a firesale correctly, emotional ties cannot cloud the judgement. Any player not signed for 2007 must be offered to maximize the returns.

 

I love Walker, but with his contract up after 2006, he's gone if I'm the GM. I might try to get him back in 2007, but I'd trade him without hesitation now.

 

Sound reasoning. I hope Hendry is smart enough to raise the white flag this season.

Community Moderator
Posted
I would exclude Barrett from the "core" of the team. In fact, I suggest trading him whenever you can.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Barrett is the best offensive catcher in the NL right now. I'd hold on to him, but if trading him was part of a larger plan to rebuild this franchise, I wouldn't object.

Posted
The Cubs should wait at least a few more weeks before starting a firesale. Besides the Cubs would get more value closer to the deadline.

 

I'm not saying we should make the trades as soon as possibe, but I think the offers, etc should begin now. If a team makes a great offer now, then take it.

 

In some cases, waiting is best. A team might get more and more desperate closer to the deadline. On the other hand, sometimes teams might pay more now because they will have the player over a longer period of time.

 

Either is just as likely as the other, but it is imperative that the shop open and the Cubs see what the offers are. This is a flawed team, yet it still has a strong core. Getting pieces that can augment that core in 2007 or be used to acquire better pieces is essiential if the Cubs are to move forward.

Posted
I would exclude Barrett from the "core" of the team. In fact, I suggest trading him whenever you can.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Barrett is the best offensive catcher in the NL right now. I'd hold on to him, but if trading him was part of a larger plan to rebuild this franchise, I wouldn't object.

 

That's an excellent point. I included Barrett as part of the core because he's signed beyond this year, is not a drag on the team, and seems to be part of the team's plan. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be moved, but moving him isn't a priority.

Community Moderator
Posted
I would exclude Barrett from the "core" of the team. In fact, I suggest trading him whenever you can.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Barrett is the best offensive catcher in the NL right now. I'd hold on to him, but if trading him was part of a larger plan to rebuild this franchise, I wouldn't object.

 

That's an excellent point. I included Barrett as part of the core because he's signed beyond this year, is not a drag on the team, and seems to be part of the team's plan. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be moved, but moving him isn't a priority.

 

The only guy in the "core" that I'm not real keen on right now is Ramirez, but that's largely based on his recent play. If I try judging objectively, he's one of the real good 3rd baseman in the league and has solidified a position that's been a trouble spot for the Cubs for as long as I've been alive. Even still, I'm not real happy with him right now.

Posted
I would exclude Barrett from the "core" of the team. In fact, I suggest trading him whenever you can.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Barrett is the best offensive catcher in the NL right now. I'd hold on to him, but if trading him was part of a larger plan to rebuild this franchise, I wouldn't object.

 

That's an excellent point. I included Barrett as part of the core because he's signed beyond this year, is not a drag on the team, and seems to be part of the team's plan. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be moved, but moving him isn't a priority.

 

The only guy in the "core" that I'm not real keen on right now is Ramirez, but that's largely based on his recent play. If I try judging objectively, he's one of the real good 3rd baseman in the league and has solidified a position that's been a trouble spot for the Cubs for as long as I've been alive. Even still, I'm not real happy with him right now.

 

and it is possible to blow the whole thing up...and if I had heard any rumblings that Ramirez would opt out of his contract, I'd probably trade him too.

 

One thing that must be considered is that outside of some starting pitching, next year's FA class is as weak if not weaker than last year's. The Cubs aren't going to be able to completely rebuild through free agency. Having these contracts (Wood's 11 million, Maddux's 9 million, Walker's 2.5) come off the books will not be enough to position the team in a good place, yet it will help some. We need to acquire players who will help or players whom we can trade for players that can help. That's what this firesale should accomplish.

Posted
I would say that Aram is available for the right price, He is very good but he is so lazy and it seems like he is just going thru the motions when he is at bat. He should be a leader on the team since he is one of the only ones left over from 2003 but he does not seem to be into the game at all.
Posted

Just a few comments:

 

With our fourth loss in a row, 11th loss of the last 12 games, and 13th out of our last 15...this season is over. Wood's return will not turn it around. Neither will Lee or Prior. While those three might make us respectable, there is too big of a hole and too many teams to pass. The teams that are ahead of us in the division, while they may have holes, they aren't so weak to allow us to pass them.

 

It's time for Hendry to realize that this season is over and begin the firesale early. The earlier the parts are traded, the more value they have. The fans are already tired of this team, so alienating them should not be an issue. Hendry failed to address the main weaknesses of this team in the offseason, so now he must bite the bullet and begin to position this club for the future. Acquiring young talent that can be utilized either with the team or traded next offseason to re-position this team is a must. Here are some hypothetical moves I'd look at.

 

1. Attempt to trade Kerry Wood to the Rangers for either Danks or Diamond.

Wood would have to be convinced to waive his no-trade clause, but might be willing if Rangers' owner Tom Hicks agrees to pick up his 2007 option at 13 million. Danks has struggled this year at AA Frisco while Diamond is doing a little better. I'd prefer Diamond, but either would be a good return on Wood and would add to the young pitchers that the Cubs have in the minors. Acquiring one early would allow the Cubs time to assess whether they would like to keep the player or use in a future trade.

 

I could see the Yankees having interest in Wood. Their talent shelf is pretty barren, but packaging Wood with another player like Walker or Jones could get the Yankees really interested. I'm not sure if Wood would waive his no-trade to go to NY, but like the Rangers, the Boss could pick up the 2007 option. I'd want C.J Henry and Phillip Hughes if I'm dealing with the Yankees, but neither of those guys excite me.

 

2. Maddux to the Padres for George Kottaras and Brad Barker. The Padres could use another pitcher, especially now with the injury to Woody Williams. Maddux should flourish in Petco and probably wouldn't object to pitching for the Padres. Kottaras would add a nice catching prospect who projects well.

 

Another possible destination for Maddux could be Arizona. I'd want either Quentin or Gonzalez back in any deal with Arizona.

 

A third possible destination could be Oakland. There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

3. I'd openly shop Pierre and get as much value as possible. I'd look to hopefully find a team that overvalues him and doesn't look to closely at his current numbers. Packaging him with another player might help maximize his value.

 

4. I'd trade Williamson to whoever wanted him as well. I'd basically call all 29 teams and let them know he's available and take the best prospect or prospects I could get.

 

4. Any of Hairston,Rusch, Perez, Jones, and Walker would also be shopped. All of those players will have varying degrees of value across the league.

 

I'd try to find players to build around the core of Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Murton, and Cedeno.

 

With Prior, Zambrano, Marshall, Guzman, Williams, Ryu, and Hill are the core of the rotation, but not all will be counted on for 2007. The remainder of the season will determine which to keep and which to dump.

Your right that the only way Kerry would likely waive his no trade is if his option is picked up. But the team trading for him would have to see him pitching lights out for two months and believe he will remain healthy. Even if they do they would be picking up a 20 mil commitment. That limits the number of teams to a few, and limits what we could get in return.

 

Just like Wood, Maddux will cost the team acquiring him 4 to 5 mil. That will also limit what we get back. No way we get Quentin or Gonzales.

 

Pierre out priced himself believing he can get Furcal/Damon money after last offseason. He better get that obp above .350 for us to receive any value.

 

Williamson will fetch a mid level prospect(s), but he likely won’t want to stay here with Dempster established at closer.

 

No one is likely to take on Jones’s contract till at least the off-season as there are better options that are short term rentals out there. Neifi won’t fetch much. Rusch would have to pitch much better in the pen the next two months, but again a low to mid leve prospect(s) at best. Hairston and Walker are gone after the year, but again won’t fetch mutch.

 

I don’t really see getting much back that will help us in the future from the above, other then a few average prospects and the celebration on this board.

 

Ramirez is interesting, since he can opt out after this year, but he would have to go on a real tear very soon. He could net us some better prospects.

 

Miller is cheap, and if he can show he’s recovered he’s a low risk low cost player that can also bring back some value.

 

Blanco and Mabry are also free after this year, but won’t net much.

 

If the Cubs do have a fire sale and don’t bring Dusty back, I would see it more as a sign that the team is being sold then a shake up.

 

But given that the Cubs sold out on the first weekend again, I would expect Hendry to try to resign Wood, Maddux, and Ramirez (if he opts out) at the bare minimum.

Posted
What worries me the most is I don't think Hendry would consider this kind of drastic move. He strikes me as the type that doesn't like to admit a mistake has been made.
Posted
Hendry will probably trade a few people but I don't think he will clean house, if he did it would be admitting that he put together a #### team. I think he and dusty are to proud to admit they made a mistake, they would rather run the player or team into the ground than admit they messed up.

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