Barry Zito

[Big Z 38]

Barry Zito is a FA this winter. Knowing Beane and the Moneyball, he won't w/ Oakland next year. Do you think we go after him at the deadline or do we wait until the winter and sign him then? He'd be a great pick-up, since he's a good pitcher, and he's healthy

[ltb]

i don't see it..he's been prone to disaster starts for a while now. that, and we will have a full rotation (assuming slots are filled from within, which is a legitimate possibility). the rotation could end up being 5 of z/prior/hill/guzman/williams/marshall but could also include wood or miller if they're re-signed. i don't see hendry paying zito the big money he will cost.

[srbin84]

I'd like to see Z/Zito/Maddux/Prior and the best of Guzman/Hill/Ryu next year.

[soccer10k]

I'd like to see Z/Zito/Maddux/Prior and the best of Guzman/Hill/Ryu next year.

 

I really don't want us to go after Zito. Ever since he won the Cy in 2002 he has been crap. I don't think we need to trade some of our good prospect for him. The way Zito is going, there is a good shot Marshall will be as good as Zito will be for the rest of his career. I know Zito has the potential for some good starts, but come on, Zito hasn't done anything an average pitcher couldn't do over the past 3 years. He has had 3 mediocre seasons. If we get an excellent deal for him, then yes, by all means trade for him. As for giving up quality prospects, which is what Billy Beane will want, definately don't do it.

[mg420]

with guys like marshall, guzman & hill the cubs have no need to spend big $ on an overrated zito. imo next year's rotation will probably look something like: z, prior, miller/williams, & 2 of hill, marshall & guzman.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

We're pretty stocked on left handed pitching (in the minors). Zito would be a waste of money.

[srbin84]

This team will go nowhere without signing one of the top SP's this offseason. You can't have a rotation where your only reliable guy is Zambrano. I think Zito would benefit from a move to the NL. He still has a 3.55 career ERA. If not Zito, I think we need to sign one of the following:

 

Tomo Ohka

Andy Pettitte

Mark Mulder

[stitchface]

definitely not pettitte or zito. way overpriced. keep in mind that career ERA includes about half his starts in Oakland. Mulder is the best of the bunch there for sure but Ohka would be cheaper. I am thinking going with internal options is the best idea for the Cubs right now. Is Ohka really much better than Williams or Guzman?

[srbin84]

definitely not pettitte or zito. way overpriced. keep in mind that career ERA includes about half his starts in Oakland. Mulder is the best of the bunch there for sure but Ohka would be cheaper. I am thinking going with internal options is the best idea for the Cubs right now. Is Ohka really much better than Williams or Guzman?

 

No, he's about the same as Williams. I like Guzman, but he hasn't done it in the majors yet and is injury prone. I don't count on Prior to make over 30 starts a year, so I think we need to anticipate him being on the DL for 25-50% of the season. That alone will give young guys a lot of opportunity. I'd like the top three to be filled by at least above average pitchers who typically make all of their starts.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Zito's gotten rocked to start out the last 2 years. Is he just a slow starter?

[stitchface]

definitely not pettitte or zito. way overpriced. keep in mind that career ERA includes about half his starts in Oakland. Mulder is the best of the bunch there for sure but Ohka would be cheaper. I am thinking going with internal options is the best idea for the Cubs right now. Is Ohka really much better than Williams or Guzman?

 

No, he's about the same as Williams. I like Guzman, but he hasn't done it in the majors yet and is injury prone. I don't count on Prior to make over 30 starts a year, so I think we need to anticipate him being on the DL for 25-50% of the season. That alone will give young guys a lot of opportunity. I'd like the top three to be filled by at least above average pitchers who typically make all of their starts.

 

I would wait until the end of the year to assess wood, prior and miller. At that point you might have a better read on williams, marshall, guzman, hill, and ryu as well and know better what you need. I wouldn't trade for Zito under any circumstances (barring a give away of course).

[soccer10k]

definitely not pettitte or zito. way overpriced. keep in mind that career ERA includes about half his starts in Oakland. Mulder is the best of the bunch there for sure but Ohka would be cheaper. I am thinking going with internal options is the best idea for the Cubs right now. Is Ohka really much better than Williams or Guzman?

 

No, he's about the same as Williams. I like Guzman, but he hasn't done it in the majors yet and is injury prone. I don't count on Prior to make over 30 starts a year, so I think we need to anticipate him being on the DL for 25-50% of the season. That alone will give young guys a lot of opportunity. I'd like the top three to be filled by at least above average pitchers who typically make all of their starts.

 

I would wait until the end of the year to assess wood, prior and miller. At that point you might have a better read on williams, marshall, guzman, hill, and ryu as well and know better what you need. I wouldn't trade for Zito under any circumstances (barring a give away of course).

 

Agreed. At least give Marshall and Hill the chance to develop into decent left handed starters before we trade for Zito.

[srbin84]

I'm talking about signing, not trading. And I'll only be able to trust Prior's health if he makes 30 starts this season, and that's already by the boards.

[Big Z 38]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

[srbin84]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

[srbin84]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

 

Well, IMO, Williams is equal to Haren and Zito is less valuable than Mulder or Hudson.

Edited April 16, 2006 by srbin84

[BigbadB]

The Cubs can't afford Zito. Zito will want a long term contract and at high dollars. Zambrano, Prior, Lee and Ramirez will be the high dollar contracts for next year. Along with medium range contracts to Jones and Dempster, and possibly even Pierre, there is just no way the Cubs can consider a long term commitment to a pitcher from outside the organization. There is also the possibility that Wood will be back next year as well, albeit at a discount rate compared to what he's making now.

 

That's another reason I wasn't a big fan of the 3 year deal to Jones, the 2 year deal to Neifi and the 2 year deal to Rusch. That's over 10m committed to 1 mediocre starter and 2 bench players for next year.

[srbin84]

The Cubs can't afford to trade for Zito. Zito will want a long term contract and at high dollars. Zambrano, Prior, Lee and Ramirez will be the high dollar contracts for next year. Along with medium range contracts to Jones and Dempster, and possibly even Pierre, there is just no way the Cubs can consider a long term commitment to a pitcher from outside the organization. There is also the possibility that Wood will be back next year as well, albeit at a discount rate compared to what he's making now.

 

That's another reason I wasn't a big fan of the 3 year deal to Jones, the 2 year deal to Neifi and the 2 year deal to Rusch. That's over 10m committed to 1 mediocre starter and 2 bench players for next year.

 

If Maddux is resigned, it will be for less money and Wood's 10 mil will be off the books; that should free up enought money. Not to mention Pierre makes about 6 mil and may be relpaced by Pie, who will be making basically nothing. If they Cubs aren't players this offseason, it's gonna be a long year in 2007. Right now, there is no reason to believe we can just put Marshall, Guzman, Hill and/or Ryu in 3 of the rotation spots and expect to have a winning record.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

 

Well, IMO, Williams is equal to Haren and Zito is less valuable than Mulder or Hudson.

 

I think Haren had a whopping 4.5+ K/BB ratio in pro ball at the time of the trade. Haren has better stuff than Williams and better control. He strikes out more hitters, walks less, and allows fewer baserunners. He is a far better pitcher than Williams is.

 

Zito may or may not be less valuable than Mulder and Hudson, but in a poor FA pitching market, he's worth a lot. He's also a lefty, which increases his value to many clubs.

[srbin84]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

 

Well, IMO, Williams is equal to Haren and Zito is less valuable than Mulder or Hudson.

 

I think Haren had a whopping 4.5+ K/BB ratio in pro ball at the time of the trade. Haren has better stuff than Williams and better control. He strikes out more hitters, walks less, and allows fewer baserunners. He is a far better pitcher than Williams is.

 

Zito may or may not be less valuable than Mulder and Hudson, but in a poor FA pitching market, he's worth a lot. He's also a lefty, which increases his value to many clubs.

 

Yeah, he probably will be overpriced, I agree. However, I evaluate pitchers based on ERA first and foremost, and Williams is actually better in that area.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

 

Well, IMO, Williams is equal to Haren and Zito is less valuable than Mulder or Hudson.

 

I think Haren had a whopping 4.5+ K/BB ratio in pro ball at the time of the trade. Haren has better stuff than Williams and better control. He strikes out more hitters, walks less, and allows fewer baserunners. He is a far better pitcher than Williams is.

 

Zito may or may not be less valuable than Mulder and Hudson, but in a poor FA pitching market, he's worth a lot. He's also a lefty, which increases his value to many clubs.

 

Yeah, he probably will be overpriced, I agree. However, I evaluate pitchers based on ERA first and foremost, and Williams is actually better in that area.

 

Williams has a better ML ERA. Haren has a much better minor league ERA (more innings to compare). Haren has one season under his belt. It's not exactly a fair comparison, IMO, since one bad game bloats ERA so much (compared to stats like WHIP, K/BB, and the more exotic stats).

[BigbadB]

The Cubs can't afford to trade for Zito. Zito will want a long term contract and at high dollars. Zambrano, Prior, Lee and Ramirez will be the high dollar contracts for next year. Along with medium range contracts to Jones and Dempster, and possibly even Pierre, there is just no way the Cubs can consider a long term commitment to a pitcher from outside the organization. There is also the possibility that Wood will be back next year as well, albeit at a discount rate compared to what he's making now.

 

That's another reason I wasn't a big fan of the 3 year deal to Jones, the 2 year deal to Neifi and the 2 year deal to Rusch. That's over 10m committed to 1 mediocre starter and 2 bench players for next year.

 

If Maddux is resigned, it will be for less money and Wood's 10 mil will be off the books; that should free up enought money. Not to mention Pierre makes about 6 mil and may be relpaced by Pie, who will be making basically nothing. If they Cubs aren't players this offseason, it's gonna be a long year in 2007. Right now, there is no reason to believe we can just put Marshall, Guzman, Hill and/or Ryu in 3 of the rotation spots and expect to have a winning record.

 

You aren't taking into account raises to many of the currently rostered players. Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano and Prior. That gobbles up a lot of that money right there. Zambrano and Prior figure to lock down 2 spots, and I would venture to guess that one or maybe even two of Maddux, Wood, Miller and Williams would lock down a 3rd and/or 4th spot, with one of Marshall, Guzman, Brownlie or Ryu locking down the last spots. If Guzman is back to complete health, he's going to be a very dominant pitcher.

 

The Cubs may want to bring Pierre back. Of the currently rostered players, none of them are deemed as lead off hitters per organizational philosophy. Pie isn't a lead off hitter either. If they don't bring back Pierre and Pie is penciled in to play CF, who leads off for the 2007 Cubs? Walker probably won't be back. Barrett, Lee, Cedeno, Ramirez, Murton, Pie and Jones. 2nd base is the only place they may fill next year, and there really aren't that many "lead off" hitters that play 2b. At least not true lead off hitters given the organizations definition of a lead off hitter. In 2008, Patterson might be ready, but I doubt he'd jump all the way to the bigs to start off next season.

[srbin84]

Do you think we could swing Williams for Zito at the deadline? Oakland has a rotation 6-deep w/o Zito, and Williams is under team control for 4 more years after this. It would fit the moneyball scheme perfectly for Beane.

 

Yeah, it seems like Beane would make that trade as long as there wasn't a better offer on the table.

 

Haha. Williams isn't that good. Look at what it took to land Mulder and Hudson.

 

Well, IMO, Williams is equal to Haren and Zito is less valuable than Mulder or Hudson.

 

I think Haren had a whopping 4.5+ K/BB ratio in pro ball at the time of the trade. Haren has better stuff than Williams and better control. He strikes out more hitters, walks less, and allows fewer baserunners. He is a far better pitcher than Williams is.

 

Zito may or may not be less valuable than Mulder and Hudson, but in a poor FA pitching market, he's worth a lot. He's also a lefty, which increases his value to many clubs.

 

Yeah, he probably will be overpriced, I agree. However, I evaluate pitchers based on ERA first and foremost, and Williams is actually better in that area.

 

Williams has a better ML ERA. Haren has a much better minor league ERA (more innings to compare). Haren has one season under his belt. It's not exactly a fair comparison, IMO, since one bad game bloats ERA so much (compared to stats like WHIP, K/BB, and the more exotic stats).

 

Ok, well, I guess we just have a difference of opinion in that regard. They are both around 350 innings. I think that's enough to where I certainly couldn't say one is far better than the other.

[srbin84]

The Cubs can't afford to trade for Zito. Zito will want a long term contract and at high dollars. Zambrano, Prior, Lee and Ramirez will be the high dollar contracts for next year. Along with medium range contracts to Jones and Dempster, and possibly even Pierre, there is just no way the Cubs can consider a long term commitment to a pitcher from outside the organization. There is also the possibility that Wood will be back next year as well, albeit at a discount rate compared to what he's making now.

 

That's another reason I wasn't a big fan of the 3 year deal to Jones, the 2 year deal to Neifi and the 2 year deal to Rusch. That's over 10m committed to 1 mediocre starter and 2 bench players for next year.

 

If Maddux is resigned, it will be for less money and Wood's 10 mil will be off the books; that should free up enought money. Not to mention Pierre makes about 6 mil and may be relpaced by Pie, who will be making basically nothing. If they Cubs aren't players this offseason, it's gonna be a long year in 2007. Right now, there is no reason to believe we can just put Marshall, Guzman, Hill and/or Ryu in 3 of the rotation spots and expect to have a winning record.

 

You aren't taking into account raises to many of the currently rostered players. Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano and Prior. That gobbles up a lot of that money right there. Zambrano and Prior figure to lock down 2 spots, and I would venture to guess that one or maybe even two of Maddux, Wood, Miller and Williams would lock down a 3rd and/or 4th spot, with one of Marshall, Guzman, Brownlie or Ryu locking down the last spots. If Guzman is back to complete health, he's going to be a very dominant pitcher.

 

The Cubs may want to bring Pierre back. Of the currently rostered players, none of them are deemed as lead off hitters per organizational philosophy. Pie isn't a lead off hitter either. If they don't bring back Pierre and Pie is penciled in to play CF, who leads off for the 2007 Cubs? Walker probably won't be back. Barrett, Lee, Cedeno, Ramirez, Murton, Pie and Jones. 2nd base is the only place they may fill next year, and there really aren't that many "lead off" hitters that play 2b. At least not true lead off hitters given the organizations definition of a lead off hitter. In 2008, Patterson might be ready, but I doubt he'd jump all the way to the bigs to start off next season.

 

Well, ok. I would be pretty disappointed if we brought back Wood and Miller though. I'm sick of having more than half of our rotation go on the DL every year.