DLEE IS SIGNED!

[C.C.]

5/65 million! Press Confernce Tomorrow!

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2404132

[soccer10k]

YES!! The news just keeps getting better.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's a good deal at 13 million per for an additional four years. Lee gets a nice 3 million raise this year in exchange for saving the Cubs 1-2 million per for the life of the contract. Lee also has a complete no-trade clause.

 

That no-trade clause may have been one of the things hanging things up for a few days.

 

I'm happy!

[mjohnson71]

I say good thing, but I really hope he can keep the numbers up. If he has a few sub .280 seasons (like everything before 2004) then it's a bad thing.

 

I know that's a very *duh* statement, but his career numbers just don't give me the warm fuzzy feeling.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3614

[minnesotacubsfan]

cooollll

[Rob]

I say good thing, but I really hope he can keep the numbers up. If he has a few sub .280 seasons (like everything before 2004) then it's a bad thing.

 

I know that's a very *duh* statement, but his career numbers just don't give me the warm fuzzy feeling.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3614

 

BP's five year forecast.

 

2006: .298/.384/.570

2007: .288/.375/.543

2008: .292/.380/.542

2009: .280/.365/.512

2010: .282/.366/.508

[C.C.]

One less worry for the next 5 years! This is a deal the Cubs had to do. The No-Brainer of the year...It's nice to have players that just love to play in Chicago. When you listen to players like Walker, Barrett, and Lee they truly love this team! Refreshing...

[C.C.]

What Rotoworld.com had to say about the deal:

 

Derrek Lee - 1B - Cubs

 

 

According to ESPN.com, the Cubs and Derrek Lee have settled at $65 million for five years.

An annoucement is expected on Tuesday. The deal includes a full no-trade clause, which seems fitting given that Lee could be costing himself at least $10 million-$15 million over the life of the contract. Apr. 10 - 6:41 pm et

[mjohnson71]

I say good thing, but I really hope he can keep the numbers up. If he has a few sub .280 seasons (like everything before 2004) then it's a bad thing.

 

I know that's a very *duh* statement, but his career numbers just don't give me the warm fuzzy feeling.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3614

 

BP's five year forecast.

 

2006: .298/.384/.570

2007: .288/.375/.543

2008: .292/.380/.542

2009: .280/.365/.512

2010: .282/.366/.508

 

I can stomach .280 to .300, but sub .280 is not cool.

 

1997 .259

1998 .233

1999 .206

2000 .281

2001 .282

2002 .270

2003 .271

2004 .278

2005 .335

[srbin84]

What Rotoworld.com had to say about the deal:

 

Derrek Lee - 1B - Cubs

 

 

According to ESPN.com, the Cubs and Derrek Lee have settled at $65 million for five years.

An annoucement is expected on Tuesday. The deal includes a full no-trade clause, which seems fitting given that Lee could be costing himself at least $10 million-$15 million over the life of the contract. Apr. 10 - 6:41 pm et

 

Couldn't agree more.

[C.C.]

Nice to see a player not be greedy.

[otis89]

Muy bueno.

[Rob]

 

I can stomach .280 to .300, but sub .280 is not cool.

 

1997 .259

1998 .233

1999 .206

2000 .281

2001 .282

2002 .270

2003 .271

2004 .278

2005 .335

 

First off, I'd toss out everything before 2000. It was long enough ago he was still just breaking into the league.

 

Secondly, batting average isn't all that useful of a stat in itself. I'd rather have Derrek Lee batting .260 than Juan Pierre batting .290.

 

And lastly, you have to look at the park he was playing in before he came here. Florida is a huge pitcher's park, and Chicago is much more neutral.

[Warpticon]

I say good thing, but I really hope he can keep the numbers up. If he has a few sub .280 seasons (like everything before 2004) then it's a bad thing.

 

I know that's a very *duh* statement, but his career numbers just don't give me the warm fuzzy feeling.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3614

 

BP's five year forecast.

 

2006: .298/.384/.570

2007: .288/.375/.543

2008: .292/.380/.542

2009: .280/.365/.512

2010: .282/.366/.508

 

I can stomach .280 to .300, but sub .280 is not cool.

 

1997 .259

1998 .233

1999 .206

2000 .281

2001 .282

2002 .270

2003 .271

2004 .278

2005 .335

 

I think you're concentrating waaaaay too much on a single statistic.

[Mizzou]

BP's five year forecast.

 

2006: .298/.384/.570

2007: .288/.375/.543

2008: .292/.380/.542

2009: .280/.365/.512

2010: .282/.366/.508

 

They have his AVG and OBP decreasing, then increasing, then decreasing again? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense - and is a reason why I put very little stock into these projections for several years down the road.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

DLee's just coming into his own in this league. I think his early career numbers are behind him. Look at the adjustments he's made between then and now. He's not even close to the same player he was. I'm really glad this deal is done. And to be honest, I thought it was going to cost the Cubs a lot more than that.

[Andy]

Cheaper would've been better, but I still think the Cubs will end up with a bargain in this deal.

 

We all look forward to you finishing your career here in Chicago, Derrek - keep on mashing!!! :D

[CubsWin]

The Tigers signed Magglio Ordonez last season to a contract in which he is guaranteed 15M this year, 12M in '07, 15M in '08 and 18M in '09.

 

I don't know how Lee's contract breaks down, but it averages out to 13M per year while Maggs is getting paid 15M per. Maggs is 2 years older, coming off of a major injury and isn't a gold glove candidate at his position.

 

This comparison makes it look like Hendry did well.

[treebird]

Cheaper would've been better, but I still think the Cubs will end up with a bargain in this deal.

 

We all look forward to you finishing your career here in Chicago, Derrek - keep on mashing!!! :D

 

id be shocked if this ended up as a bargain. i think the best case scenario is it's a good deal at the beginning and then not horrible at the end but more than you'd like to pay.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

The Tigers signed Magglio Ordonez last season to a contract in which he is guaranteed 15M this year, 12M in '07, 15M in '08 and 18M in '09.

 

I don't know how Lee's contract breaks down, but it averages out to 13M per year while Maggs is getting paid 15M per. Maggs is 2 years older, coming off of a major injury and isn't a gold glove candidate at his position.

 

This comparison makes it look like Hendry did well.

 

That Maggs contract makes the D.Lee contract look like a steal.

[Wheelimus]

I'd be shocked if it didn't end up being a bargain.

 

I attribute the rise of Derrek Lee to be a mixture of hitting in a better park, having an energetic home to play to, and figuring out how to get in his groove earlier in the season.

 

If he keeps it up, he's a big money player and we got a deal. Konerko got close to 60 didn't he? We were going to have to pay market value to keep Derrek.

 

I mean, what was the alternative to paying this, taking our chances in free agency or hoping that Dope or Sing put it together quick?

 

Good sign.

[Rob]

BP's five year forecast.

 

2006: .298/.384/.570

2007: .288/.375/.543

2008: .292/.380/.542

2009: .280/.365/.512

2010: .282/.366/.508

 

They have his AVG and OBP decreasing, then increasing, then decreasing again? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense - and is a reason why I put very little stock into these projections for several years down the road.

 

It does make some sense, actually. Besides the fact they aren't major fluctuations, most of this is based off his historic comprables. There were probably a few who did bad one year and dropped out of the league... so they brought the average down for one year and then his comprables kept it up.

 

Yeah, I know it's convoluted.

 

To be completely honest, I don't put a whole lot of faith in the projection either. DLee is certainly a lot more athletic than his counterparts. And the further into the future you try to predict, the harder it becomes.

[CubsWin]

Cheaper would've been better, but I still think the Cubs will end up with a bargain in this deal.

 

We all look forward to you finishing your career here in Chicago, Derrek - keep on mashing!!! :D

 

id be shocked if this ended up as a bargain. i think the best case scenario is it's a good deal at the beginning and then not horrible at the end but more than you'd like to pay.

If you look at the fact that Furcal is getting paid 13 million a year for the next 3 years and then compare Lee's numbers to Furcal's you might change your mind.

 

If you look at Magglio's contract or Beltran's contract you might change your mind.

 

Carlos Delgado will be 34 in June and will be paid more money over the next three seasons than Lee at age 30 just agreed to get.

 

So its possible that the best case scenario is that this contract turns out to be a "bargain" if the going rate for a player of his ability turns out to be 3-5 million more than what he agreed to. But it is more likely to just be a really good deal for the Cubs and not something you could call a bargain.

 

However, since the deal starts this season when he is 30, the last year of this contract will be when he is 34. I don't see his production falling off much during that time simply because of his age. So I don't understand why you think it is likely that this contract will be "not horrible at the end but more than you'd like to pay". I guess if he is being paid 17 or 18 million at the end then, yeah, but we haven't learned the yearly breakdown of this contract yet.

[CubsWin]

I'd be shocked if it didn't end up being a bargain.

 

I attribute the rise of Derrek Lee to be a mixture of hitting in a better park, having an energetic home to play to, and figuring out how to get in his groove earlier in the season.

 

If he keeps it up, he's a big money player and we got a deal. Konerko got close to 60 didn't he? We were going to have to pay market value to keep Derrek.

 

I mean, what was the alternative to paying this, taking our chances in free agency or hoping that Dope or Sing put it together quick?

 

Good sign.

Don't forget the adjustment he made in hitting the inside fastball. That was the one thing he attributed most of his success to last season and he has shown the ability to hit the same pitch again this season. It doesn't look like he is going to lose that ability anytime soon.

[Warpticon]

Cheaper would've been better, but I still think the Cubs will end up with a bargain in this deal.

 

We all look forward to you finishing your career here in Chicago, Derrek - keep on mashing!!! :D

 

id be shocked if this ended up as a bargain. i think the best case scenario is it's a good deal at the beginning and then not horrible at the end but more than you'd like to pay.

 

I think the odds are pretty good that Lee is still an above average 1B by the end of his deal. I think 13 mil is going to be fairly cheap for that level of production by '10.