Abreu at the deadline?

[CubinNY]

I was going to put this in the Caberra thread but I didn't want to hijack.

 

With Philadelphia's pitching they have the makings of falling out of he race quickly. Therefore, I'd say it is much more likely that Abreu gets traded around the deadline than Caberrra.

 

The question is: do the Cubs have enough young pitching talent get him?

 

What a beautiful dream:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Rameriz

Abreu

Murton

Barrett

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

The run socring potential is huge there.

 

Who to give up?

 

Hill

Marshall

Guzman

Pie

Ghallager

Momrol

 

I am sure Philly will be holding out for **** players

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

[CubinNY]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

[Mark_R]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Are you always this hostile?

 

Its not some great leap to say that the Cubs' success this season is contingent on starting pitching being healthy.

[Guest]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

That's true, but I'd also argue that having Wood, Prior, and Miller for five months each would be more beneficial to the team than upgrading from Jones to Abreu for two.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

[CubinNY]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

That's true, but I'd also argue that having Wood, Prior, and Miller for five months each would be more beneficial to the team than upgrading from Jones to Abreu for two.

 

That is not the point here. I will stipulate that having good starting pitching is more important than a upgrade in RF.

 

However, since 2003 in losing streaks of 4 or more games (46 games total) the Cubs averaged 2.8 runs. This includes six shut outs and nine games where they scored only 1 run. In other words, in 32% of those games the Cubs scored 1 run or less. The percantage goes up to 41% if we bump that up to two runs or less.

 

The question is if Abreu is available, do the Cubs have enough young talent to get him? It is much easier to accept an answer of no rather than a non secuitor, of ptiching will win.

Edited April 9, 2006 by CubinNY

[TrueBlueCubFan]

The Phillies will want a top of the line starter for Abreu. I'd rather have Z, b/c thats who it would take to get Abreu.

[Guest]

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

It usually takes offense and pitching defense to win:

 

74.1% of MLB division winners have been above average at both.

15.3% of MLB division winners have been above average at defense but not offense.

10.0% of MLB division wiinners have been above average at offense but not defense.

0.6% of MLB division winners have been below average at both. (The 1987 Twins, if anyone wants to know.)

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

It usually takes offense and pitching defense to win:

 

74.1% of MLB division winners have been above average at both.

15.3% of MLB division winners have been above average at defense but not offense.

10.0% of MLB division wiinners have been above average at offense but not defense.

0.6% of MLB division winners have been below average at both. (The 1987 Twins, if anyone wants to know.)

 

Pitching = defense?

[Guest]

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

It usually takes offense and pitching defense to win:

 

74.1% of MLB division winners have been above average at both.

15.3% of MLB division winners have been above average at defense but not offense.

10.0% of MLB division wiinners have been above average at offense but not defense.

0.6% of MLB division winners have been below average at both. (The 1987 Twins, if anyone wants to know.)

 

Pitching = defense?

Defense = not allowing runs.

[Roast]

If we could find a way to pry Abreu away from them without giving up Prior/Z then i'm all for it. Immagine this team:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Ramirez/Abreu

Abreu/Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

 

Z

Prior

Wood

Maddux

Marshall/Rusch/Williams/Guzman/whoever they dont take in the trade

 

That would be an INCREADABLY tough team to beat.

[FergieJ31]

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

It usually takes offense and pitching defense to win:

 

74.1% of MLB division winners have been above average at both.

15.3% of MLB division winners have been above average at defense but not offense.

10.0% of MLB division wiinners have been above average at offense but not defense.

0.6% of MLB division winners have been below average at both. (The 1987 Twins, if anyone wants to know.)

 

Interesting stat BK. Got any idea what the statistical significance of the 15.3% and 10.0% numbers are (a t-stat or some standard error estimate)?

 

As for the '87 Twins, they also were the only team to ever win a WS with a below-500 record on the road, if memory serves. (I was actually pulling for the Cards in that WS, so deep is my hatred for playing baseball in the Rollerdome.)

 

While I'd love to see Abreu in a Cub uniform I don't see it happening unless they overpay in pitching, which would be a huge mistake. Look at the Cubs' offense in 2003: a full year of Agony and Miller in the lineup. Offense isn't what took them to the NLCS that year.

Edited April 9, 2006 by FergieJ31

[srbin84]

Maybe if Philly keeps losing and is easily on pace for a 100 loss season by the ASG, we could get Abreu for prospects. It would probably take Pie and whatever young pitcher is most successful up to that point. If Marshall starts for the whole first half and has an ERA in the 3's, would you deal him for Abreu if they insisted on including him? It would kind of be like the risk we took trading Scott Downs for Rondell White, only on a much larger scale.

[abuck1220]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

 

You really think we can upgrade the offense w/o downgrading some other element of our team?

 

We don't live in fantasy land. Philly will get something valuable in return, not a bunch of minor league leftovers that could beat out Rusch and Williamson for a rotation spot.

[abuck1220]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

 

You really think we can upgrade the offense w/o downgrading some other element of our team?

 

We don't live in fantasy land. Philly will get something valuable in return, not a bunch of minor league leftovers that could beat out Rusch and Williamson for a rotation spot.

 

i don't know what philly would want in return, and neither do you. that's not really the point, though. you shouldn't automatically dismiss the notion of upgrading the offense just b/c you think pitching and defense wins championships (which isn't true, but whatever).

[CubinNY]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

 

You really think we can upgrade the offense w/o downgrading some other element of our team?

 

We don't live in fantasy land. Philly will get something valuable in return, not a bunch of minor league leftovers that could beat out Rusch and Williamson for a rotation spot.

 

Fatasy land? No one in this thread has suggested that the Cubs trade "surplus" pitching. As I wrote in the very first post, it will take the best the Cubs have to offer. I also posed the question, do the Cubs have enough?

 

I don't think anyone would advocte trading Zambrano or Prior. I certianly am not.

 

How hard is it to answer, no?

[BigbadB]

If the Cubs were to find a way to land someone like Abreu at the deadline, which I'm pretty skeptical, I'd have Abreu batting 2nd, not 5th.

 

If Pierre were to get closer to his .360 OBP and then you had Abreu and his .400+ OBP hitting second, Lee and Ramirez would be in heaven.

 

If the Cubs would have thrown Abreu money at Brian Giles this past offseason, they could have had that without giving up anything other than compensation picks in the June amateur draft, and they still could have had that kind of OBP at the top of the order. But, didn't happen.

 

I would agree with anyone who said that you would really need to WOW Phily to pry him away.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

 

You really think we can upgrade the offense w/o downgrading some other element of our team?

 

We don't live in fantasy land. Philly will get something valuable in return, not a bunch of minor league leftovers that could beat out Rusch and Williamson for a rotation spot.

 

i don't know what philly would want in return, and neither do you. that's not really the point, though. you shouldn't automatically dismiss the notion of upgrading the offense just b/c you think pitching and defense wins championships (which isn't true, but whatever).

 

You don't win crap w/o pitching. Never did I say defense wins championships. I'll thank you kindly to not put words in my mouth. :)

 

Hendry doesn't propose fantasy bs trades and hope some GM is stupid enough to take them (according to Schuerholz). He goes value for value. Abreu does not suck. It's going to take more than a couple mediocre pitching prospects to land him. If you want to brush that off as something we can't possibly know. Cool. Why even bother talking about this? After all, it's theoretically possible we could get ARod for Ryu and Cabrera for Jones.

 

It's not as simple as upgrading the offense. It's a trade off. Upgrade one position, downgrade another and/or the farm.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Our team will win or lose b/c of pitching, not Abreu in RF.

 

Give me a break. Pitching has not been the problem with this team, its been offense. It has alwys been offense, last year the Cubs were near the top in HRs, SLG, and BA. And only in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Same in 2003 and 2004. The Cubs have the pitching to win, but not the offense.

 

So are you saying the Cubs shouldn't try to upgrade? That is pretty assinine.

 

Yeah, we'll trade some surplus pitching for Abreu. I'm sure they'll take a package of Marshall and Hill for Abreu.

 

Offense doesn't win division titles. Pitching does.

 

yep. so if you have a chance to upgrade your offense you shouldn't even do it.

 

You really think we can upgrade the offense w/o downgrading some other element of our team?

 

We don't live in fantasy land. Philly will get something valuable in return, not a bunch of minor league leftovers that could beat out Rusch and Williamson for a rotation spot.

 

Fatasy land? No one in this thread has suggested that the Cubs trade "surplus" pitching. As I wrote in the very first post, it will take the best the Cubs have to offer. I also posed the question, do the Cubs have enough?

 

I don't think anyone would advocte trading Zambrano or Prior. I certianly am not.

 

How hard is it to answer, no?

 

The names you threw out are all minor leaguers. There was nothing in your first post about "the very best the cubs have to offer."

[CubinNY]

 

I am sure Philly will be holding out for **** players

 

Regardless, I think Philadelphia will be thinking about rebuilding. I don't think high dollar players will be want they want. I think they will want top notch ready-to-contribute young players.

[Outshined_One]

The Phillies have pretty good talent that they'll want to cash in on while they're cheap and under contract (Rollins, Utley, Howard), but their pitching is just a mess. If they go through a rebuilding process, the Philadelphia fans won't be all that kind to them.

 

What's going to matter is how the Cubs' pitching prospects perform up to the deadline. It will take top of the line pitching to land Abreu. If Guzman tears his rotator cuff, Rich Hill goes Ankiel on us, Marshall busts spectacularly, and so on, then I don't think the Cubs will have the ammo to trade for Abreu. However, if Hill regains his consistency, Guzman blows away AAA, and Marshall posts good numbers in the majors...options will present themselves.

 

The only thing I'd worry about would be Dusty moving Jock to left with Abreu starting in right. I think Murton will show enough with his bat over the next few months to justify starting every day...but you never know.

[Warpticon]

If Jones flames out completely, you know what I'd rather do than chase Abreu?

 

What do the Mets need? Since they apparently have no intention of actually playing Victor Diaz, I'd see what it'd take to pry him away.

[BigbadB]

If Jones flames out completely, you know what I'd rather do than chase Abreu?

 

What do the Mets need? Since they apparently have no intention of actually playing Victor Diaz, I'd see what it'd take to pry him away.

 

Jones makes for a decent platoon option with Nady. I'm game. But, if Beltran continues struggling, I'd be interested in knowing how much of his contract they'd be willing to eat.