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Posted

Actually, I'll start by giving Dusty credit for throwing out the proper lineup yesterday. Hopefully, he'll stick with it for the better part of the season...

 

But, once again he showed his incompetence by incorrectly executing the double switch during the sixth inning. In the fifth, he took out Zambrano (9 hitter, due up 4th in the following inning) and replaced Jones (made the last out of the prior inning) with Pagan. Good move. Along comes the sixth innning and the Cubs bat around to get to the pitchers spot (now batting in the fifth spot)...Neifi pinch hits. Fine and good...other than Neifi being our #2 option off the bench. Here's where Dusty screwed up. Cedano ended the inning with a popout. Now Dusty if he wanted to keep the pitchers spot last should have let Neifi take over at short and put the new pitcher in Cedano's spot. Dusty in all of his infinite wisdom leaves Neifi in the game, but at 2nd for Walker...I know that Neifi is better defensively than Walker, but Dusty failed to realize that Walker was coming up third in the next inning and he'd just put the pitcher in that spot in the order...

 

Luckily for Dusty, the pitcher he put in couldn't get out of the sixth inning and he had a second chance to fix his mistake...and realizing he was wrong, he put Hairston in put the pitcher in Cedano's spot. He could have done this without removing Walker.

 

Don't we have anyone on the coaching staff that can figure these things out without wasting a player?

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Posted
I wouldn't put to much stock into what went on on the field yesterday. It was opening day and the Cubs, for the most part, were in control. IMO Dusty was trying to get most of the position players a chance to say they played on opening day. Everybody want to play on opening day.
Posted
I wouldn't put to much stock into what went on on the field yesterday. It was opening day and the Cubs, for the most part, were in control. IMO Dusty was trying to get most of the position players a chance to say they played on opening day. Everybody want to play on opening day.

 

Especially Todd Hundley.

Posted
Everybody want to play on opening day.
That's all that happened. No need to look too deep into some random double switches.

 

The more important thing to recognize is that the kids got the starts and the opening day lineup looked very much like most of this board's posters' "best case scenario" lineup.

Posted
Is there a reason or a need to be critical after a 16-7 victory on opening day?

Why not? So mistakes are ok as long as we win? If somebody wants to be critical about a certain aspect of the game then by all means they can be.

Posted
Is there a reason or a need to be critical after a 16-7 victory on opening day?

 

I think there is always a reason and a need to look to improve upon mistakes and/or faults no matter the previous result.

Posted
Is there a reason or a need to be critical after a 16-7 victory on opening day?

 

Without 2nd guessing Dusty's every move, what would people do?

Posted

I had the exact same concerns as bobbyd20. Maybe it's just a case of Dusty wanting to get everyone in the game, but I don't like seeing the starting guys out of the game so quickly. And yes, we built a good lead there in the 6th, but I didn't think the 5-run cushion would evaporate so quickly either.

 

I guess I'd rather keep the starters on the field, keep some guys on the bench just in case, and play each game to maximize our chances of winning rather than trying to get each player an AB on opening day. If our pen blew the lead and our only PH in the 9th was Blanco, I wouldn't be too thrilled. Yes it's nice when you can get bench guys some ABs, but the point isn't to play as many guys as possible in each game.

 

And I have no problem with criticizing players or the manager when the team won. Should we tell Zambrano "great game" just because his team put up 16? I hope not.

Community Moderator
Posted

It was opening day. The team scored 16 runs. I found nothing to be overly critical about, except the pitching staff giving up a ridiculous amount of walks and lead off base runners. They were REAL lucky the Reds didn't score a lot more runs yesterday.

 

But, I was also pleased that the Cubs drew a lot of walks, also.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Much as I like to criticize Dusty, this wasn't a mistake.

 

It was a blowout. And in blowouts, you have a chance to put in bench players for vets.

 

 

As for putting the pitcher in the 3rd spot......again, who cares? It was a blowout. Your logic only applies if it's a close game, and it wasn't.

Posted (edited)
Is there a reason or a need to be critical after a 16-7 victory on opening day?

 

Without 2nd guessing Dusty's every move, what would people do?

 

We'd probably end off bitter old cub fans who try their best to antagonize young whipper-snappers who like numbers.

Edited by CubinNY
Posted

Dusty does it all the time. He double switches and moves the pitcher's spot in the wrong direction. Did it all of last season, still doing it this season.

 

Anyway, let's look at the moves he made yesterday:

 

Bottom fifth, 5-5 game, 2nd with 2 outs, Javier Valentin at the plate:

Dusty pulls Zambrano (4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R/ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 105 pitches), the right call. The pitcher's spot is due up fourth in the next inning. Jacque Jones made the final out of the top of the fifth. So Dusty replaces Zambrano with Angel Pagan, playing right field, and Jacque Jones with Will Will Ohman. Pitcher's spot now due up ninth in the next inning, and Angel Pagan can play defence and is hot at the plate. Javier Valentin is a switch-hitter, but his splits mean he's a lot less effective against lefties. Very good tactical move. It pays off as well, as Ohman retires Valentin to end the inning and Pagan singles in a run and scores in the top half of the sixth.

 

Top sixth, 10-5 game, bases loaded with 0 outs, pitcher's spot up, RHP Mike Burns pitching:

The Cubs have batted around, meaning that even though Dusty just double switched, the pitcher's spot is up. A real opportunity to blow this game wide-open, absolutely finish it, so you have to pinch-hit. On the mound for the Reds is a right-handed pitcher with apparently normal splits, so here someone that hits righties better than lefties would be suitable. And someone that hits period, of course. On the bench, Dusty has lefties Freddie Bynum (speed, on-base skills, but inexperienced at major league level) and John Mabry (normal splits, but maybe saving him for later), plus Jerry Hairston (not much of a split) and Henry Blanco (emergency catcher, can't hit, can't run). Any of the first three options would be fine here, right? Erm, nope. Dusty goes for Neifi Perez as his pinch-hitter, the very same Neifi Perez that's a career .254/.283/.339 hitter when not on teams playing their home games in Coors Field, and that's weaker against right-handers. Nice. Dusty gets away with it, as Neifi does what he always does and slaps at a pitch, resulting in a routine groundball. Fortunately, the infield is playing way in, and it gets past a despairing dive for a basehit.

 

Mid sixth, 12-5 Cubs

Having pinch-hit for the pitcher, Dusty needs to make a pitching change. With a pinch-hitter (righty Chris Denorfia as it turned out), lefty Tony Womack (better vs righties) and switch-hitter Felipe Lopez (better vs righties) due up, Dusty goes for Scott Williamson. Fair enough, I guess, because having unfortunately had to burn Ohman, and with Griffey, Dunn, Hatteberg all lefties, probably better to save Eyre for them than burn him here, and Williamson's good enough that you shouldn't have to worry about lefties and righties etc. But getting Williamson into the game, Dusty makes a dumb move. The pitcher's spot is due up sixth the next time the Cubs bat, so double-switching isn't imperative, Williamson probably isn't someone you want to stretch to two innings anyway, and Ronny Cedeno, who made the last out of the top of the sixth, plays good enough defence that you don't need to replace him. So just put Williamson in for Neifi Perez the pinch-hitter and be done with it. Nope, instead Dusty puts Wiliamson in for Todd Walker, due up third the next time the Cubs bat, and leaves Neifi Perez in the game, now playing second base. Upgrade on defense (though nothing that wouldn't have been achieved just by bringing Neifi in for Walker after the top of the seventh), big hit on offence, and very bad strategy, because he'll up having to burn players to correct the mistake.

 

Bottom sixth, 12-5 Cubs, bases loaded with no outs, Griffey and Dunn due up

Williamson didn't have it, managed to load them up with no outs. With the two big lefty hitting Reds up, this is the moment for Scott Eyre. Dusty correctly goes to him, and realising his previous mistake, brings him in for Ronny Cedeno, moves Neifi Perez to shortstop and replaces Williamson with Jerry Hairston Jr. It's the right corrective move but it burns Cedeno and Hairston as a pinch-hit option later in the game. In the end, with only five batters hitting in the top of the seventh, moving the pitcher's spot down from up sixth to up ninth ultimately didn't make a difference, but Dusty used the opportunity to stretch Eyre to two innings anyway, somewhat unnecessarily I'd argue.

 

Top eighth, 12-7 Cubs, man on 1st with 2 outs, pitcher's spot up facing RHP Todd Coffey

Oh, so now Dusty pinch-hits with John Mabry, replacing Eyre who'd thrown 37 pitches. Mabry grounds out. Now, with the exception of Freddie Bynum and Henry Blanco, there's no-one available on the bench.

 

Mid-eighth, 12-7 Cubs

Dusty needs a new pitcher, pitcher's spot due up ninth, he goes for Bob Howry. Fair enough, I guess.

 

Mid-ninth, 16-7 Cubs

Howry pitched an inning and the pitcher's spot is due up next if the Cubs ever have to bat again, like that was ever going to happen. Murton made the last out of the top of the inning, so Dusty pulls him for the hell of it (ah, come on, you can't expect young kids to play nine innings!) and brings Ryan Dempster in to close out a 9 run game. Erm, okay. Freddie Bynum replaces Howry, playing left field. Double switch. So pointless, but I guess he just wanted to Bynum some PT. Still, what would have happened, hypothetically, if an outfielder had injured himself at some stage in the bottom of the ninth, with only Henry Blanco on the bench? Can you bring pitchers in to play the outfield?

 

 

Overall, 5/10 for Dusty, I say.

 

His pitcher usage was fine, pulled Z at the right time, brought in Ohman, right move, Williamson, no problem with that, brought in Eyre at the right time, Howry's fair enough and I don't really even have a problem with him using Dempster, but would have preferred it if he'd given Mike Wuertz the inning instead, because I think he needed it more with the ST he had. Extending Eyre to 37 pitches was excessive, but I don't really see the alternative, because if you bring Howry in to pitch the seventh, you need to use both our remaining available pitchers (Wuertz and Dempster) to pitch the eighth and ninth between them. We'd have been in a pretty bad situation then if there were any snags, such as a pitching injury, or one of the two being so ineffective that the game all of a sudden becomes close again.

 

But the blown double-switch and the pinch-hitting with Neifi decisions, plus not letting Cedeno and Murton finish the game, didn't like that. I think it sends out the wrong message to the two youngsters, especially to Cedeno, who was pretty much lifted at the first opportunity.

Posted

I think the bigger mistake was pulling Ohman for a pinch hitter with a five run lead and the bases juiced with no outs. just let him hit. worst case scenerio is a dp, and the guy he sent up is the master of hitting into the dp. better yet, send him up with instructions to not take the bat off his shoulder, and wait for a K or a BB. let Barrett, who has hit the ball hard all day, try to pick him up if he Ks

 

 

he should have recognized that the the umps strikezone was the size of a pea and the bullpens biggest weakness is walking guys, thus alot of bullpen pitchers might be needed. he especially should have recognized this considering there were 4 innings to go, and he only had one other lefty out of the pen, and going into an inning where the expected batters were pinch hitter, lefty, swith hitter who is better as a lefty, lefty, lefty.

 

edit for this - was typing when Diffusion entered his post, but I still would have left Ohman in.

 

second edit - it occurs to me that if Dusty did what I said, the cascading effect of bad moves never would have been made.

Verified Member
Posted
Dusty does it all the time. He double switches and moves the pitcher's spot in the wrong direction. Did it all of last season, still doing it this season.

 

Anyway, let's look at the moves he made yesterday:

 

Bottom fifth, 5-5 game, 2nd with 2 outs, Javier Valentin at the plate:

Dusty pulls Zambrano (4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R/ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 105 pitches), the right call. The pitcher's spot is due up fourth in the next inning. Jacque Jones made the final out of the top of the fifth. So Dusty replaces Zambrano with Angel Pagan, playing right field, and Jacque Jones with Will Will Ohman. Pitcher's spot now due up ninth in the next inning, and Angel Pagan can play defence and is hot at the plate. Javier Valentin is a switch-hitter, but his splits mean he's a lot less effective against lefties. Very good tactical move. It pays off as well, as Ohman retires Valentin to end the inning and Pagan singles in a run and scores in the top half of the sixth.

 

Top sixth, 10-5 game, bases loaded with 0 outs, pitcher's spot up, RHP Mike Burns pitching:

The Cubs have batted around, meaning that even though Dusty just double switched, the pitcher's spot is up. A real opportunity to blow this game wide-open, absolutely finish it, so you have to pinch-hit. On the mound for the Reds is a right-handed pitcher with apparently normal splits, so here someone that hits righties better than lefties would be suitable. And someone that hits period, of course. On the bench, Dusty has lefties Freddie Bynum (speed, on-base skills, but inexperienced at major league level) and John Mabry (normal splits, but maybe saving him for later), plus Jerry Hairston (not much of a split) and Henry Blanco (emergency catcher, can't hit, can't run). Any of the first three options would be fine here, right? Erm, nope. Dusty goes for Neifi Perez as his pinch-hitter, the very same Neifi Perez that's a career .254/.283/.339 hitter when not on teams playing their home games in Coors Field, and that's weaker against right-handers. Nice. Dusty gets away with it, as Neifi does what he always does and slaps at a pitch, resulting in a routine groundball. Fortunately, the infield is playing way in, and it gets past a despairing dive for a basehit.

 

Mid sixth, 12-5 Cubs

Having pinch-hit for the pitcher, Dusty needs to make a pitching change. With a pinch-hitter (righty Chris Denorfia as it turned out), lefty Tony Womack (better vs righties) and switch-hitter Felipe Lopez (better vs righties) due up, Dusty goes for Scott Williamson. Fair enough, I guess, because having unfortunately had to burn Ohman, and with Griffey, Dunn, Hatteberg all lefties, probably better to save Eyre for them than burn him here, and Williamson's good enough that you shouldn't have to worry about lefties and righties etc. But getting Williamson into the game, Dusty makes a dumb move. The pitcher's spot is due up sixth the next time the Cubs bat, so double-switching isn't imperative, Williamson probably isn't someone you want to stretch to two innings anyway, and Ronny Cedeno, who made the last out of the top of the sixth, plays good enough defence that you don't need to replace him. So just put Williamson in for Neifi Perez the pinch-hitter and be done with it. Nope, instead Dusty puts Wiliamson in for Todd Walker, due up third the next time the Cubs bat, and leaves Neifi Perez in the game, now playing second base. Upgrade on defense (though nothing that wouldn't have been achieved just by bringing Neifi in for Walker after the top of the seventh), big hit on offence, and very bad strategy, because he'll up having to burn players to correct the mistake.

 

Bottom sixth, 12-5 Cubs, bases loaded with no outs, Griffey and Dunn due up

Williamson didn't have it, managed to load them up with no outs. With the two big lefty hitting Reds up, this is the moment for Scott Eyre. Dusty correctly goes to him, and realising his previous mistake, brings him in for Ronny Cedeno, moves Neifi Perez to shortstop and replaces Williamson with Jerry Hairston Jr. It's the right corrective move but it burns Cedeno and Hairston as a pinch-hit option later in the game. In the end, with only five batters hitting in the top of the seventh, moving the pitcher's spot down from up sixth to up ninth ultimately didn't make a difference, but Dusty used the opportunity to stretch Eyre to two innings anyway, somewhat unnecessarily I'd argue.

 

Top eighth, 12-7 Cubs, man on 1st with 2 outs, pitcher's spot up facing RHP Todd Coffey

Oh, so now Dusty pinch-hits with John Mabry, replacing Eyre who'd thrown 37 pitches. Mabry grounds out. Now, with the exception of Freddie Bynum and Henry Blanco, there's no-one available on the bench.

 

Mid-eighth, 12-7 Cubs

Dusty needs a new pitcher, pitcher's spot due up ninth, he goes for Bob Howry. Fair enough, I guess.

 

Mid-ninth, 16-7 Cubs

Howry pitched an inning and the pitcher's spot is due up next if the Cubs ever have to bat again, like that was ever going to happen. Murton made the last out of the top of the inning, so Dusty pulls him for the hell of it (ah, come on, you can't expect young kids to play nine innings!) and brings Ryan Dempster in to close out a 9 run game. Erm, okay. Freddie Bynum replaces Howry, playing left field. Double switch. So pointless, but I guess he just wanted to Bynum some PT. Still, what would have happened, hypothetically, if an outfielder had injured himself at some stage in the bottom of the ninth, with only Henry Blanco on the bench? Can you bring pitchers in to play the outfield?

 

 

Overall, 5/10 for Dusty, I say.

 

His pitcher usage was fine, pulled Z at the right time, brought in Ohman, right move, Williamson, no problem with that, brought in Eyre at the right time, Howry's fair enough and I don't really even have a problem with him using Dempster, but would have preferred it if he'd given Mike Wuertz the inning instead, because I think he needed it more with the ST he had. Extending Eyre to 37 pitches was excessive, but I don't really see the alternative, because if you bring Howry in to pitch the seventh, you need to use both our remaining available pitchers (Wuertz and Dempster) to pitch the eighth and ninth between them. We'd have been in a pretty bad situation then if there were any snags, such as a pitching injury, or one of the two being so ineffective that the game all of a sudden becomes close again.

 

But the blown double-switch and the pinch-hitting with Neifi decisions, plus not letting Cedeno and Murton finish the game, didn't like that. I think it sends out the wrong message to the two youngsters, especially to Cedeno, who was pretty much lifted at the first opportunity.

 

Good analysis. I would just add that extending Eyre was unnecessary, as I said yesterday.

 

I've just accepted that I will rarely understand a Dusty double-switch.

Posted
Extending Eyre to 37 pitches was excessive, but I don't really see the alternative, because if you bring Howry in to pitch the seventh, you need to use both our remaining available pitchers (Wuertz and Dempster) to pitch the eighth and ninth between them.

 

You are forgetting the best option which was to let Williams pitch innings 7-9, as you should with your long man in blowouts. It was 12-6 going into the bottom of the 7th. It was an obvious move to have your long man warmed up. Jerome should be able to get you through 3 without blowing a 6 run lead. There's absolutely no justification for extending an important short-man coming off years where there was already concern that he was overused.

Posted
Extending Eyre to 37 pitches was excessive, but I don't really see the alternative, because if you bring Howry in to pitch the seventh, you need to use both our remaining available pitchers (Wuertz and Dempster) to pitch the eighth and ninth between them.

 

You are forgetting the best option which was to let Williams pitch innings 7-9, as you should with your long man in blowouts. It was 12-6 going into the bottom of the 7th. It was an obvious move to have your long man warmed up. Jerome should be able to get you through 3 without blowing a 6 run lead. There's absolutely no justification for extending an important short-man coming off years where there was already concern that he was overused.

 

agree completely. this move combined with my comments about Ohman is how I would have handled it. let Ohman work through the sixth inning and all the lefties, then let Williams finish the game. if he gets in trouble, then bring in Williams, Eyre, Howry, Dempster. if you're worried about getting them work, give them all a bullpen session after the game.

 

Dusty did this all year last year. the Cubs carried a long man all year long, and I can recall a bullpen pitcher used as a long man one time, Hill for Z in Milwaukee. without looking through the game log, I don't think a relief pitcher had an outting more than 2 innings the rest of the entire year.

Posted
I think the bigger mistake was pulling Ohman for a pinch hitter with a five run lead and the bases juiced with no outs. just let him hit. worst case scenerio is a dp, and the guy he sent up is the master of hitting into the dp. better yet, send him up with instructions to not take the bat off his shoulder, and wait for a K or a BB. let Barrett, who has hit the ball hard all day, try to pick him up if he Ks

 

I disagree. 10-5 with the bases loaded and no outs is the best chance you're ever going to get of killing the game off. With the umpire's small zone, in that ballpark, against a very potent Cincinnati offence, a five run lead isn't as big as it sounds (indeed, the Cubs had already blown a five run lead in the game, and they blew at five run lead in the last Spring Training game too, for what that's worth). Ohman's the first pitcher you've used out of the bullpen, so you've got another five if you need them. You can afford to burn Ohman, go for the jugular with the best pinch hitter you've got, and the worst case scenario then is that you need to bring in another pitcher, you have one less pinch-hitter to use later and you still have a five run lead. The best case scenario is that the game is absolutely over and the Reds have no chance of recovering from a eight, nine, ten run deficit.

 

You send Ohman up to bat and tell him not to swing, yes, there's an outside possibility that the pitcher you're facing can't throw a strike and he manages to walk him, or he hits him, or he throws a wild pitch. But I don't think the chances of that are particularly high. A lot more probable is that Ohman strikes out or pops-out (in which case the Reds are a double play from getting out of the inning, and, for what it's worth, Barrett did hit into a double play!), or he hits a weak groundball somewhere. Maybe that's good enough to get a run home, or maybe with the infield in there's a play at the plate and it's not. Or maybe the infield can turn a double play, conceding the one run but very much stopping the big inning in its tracks.

 

You are forgetting the best option which was to let Williams pitch innings 7-9, as you should with your long man in blowouts. It was 12-6 going into the bottom of the 7th. It was an obvious move to have your long man warmed up. Jerome should be able to get you through 3 without blowing a 6 run lead.

 

That's a very interesting and persuasive argument, and you're right that I did overlook it. However, on the flip side, I think an argument can be made that getting all your pitchers into a game just to get a feel for proper competitive baseball again is worth something. Also, Jerome Williams doesn't deal with who should be pitching the bottom of the sixth (or would you bring him in there maybe?), and when you consider how bad Williams looked in Spring Training, and that the Reds' offence is predominantly left-handed, I don't think it's necessarily as obvious that Williams can pitch three or four innings without giving up six or seven runs. Sure, he should, but it's not always that simple.

 

There's absolutely no justification for extending an important short-man coming off years where there was already concern that he was overused.

 

And there's no justification for completely overreacting either. The Cubs have an off-day today, Eyre didn't throw on Sunday either, the Cubs have another off-day coming up on Thursday. In five days then, he'll have thrown 37 pitches, plus any that he throws tomorrow. It's not ideal that so many come in one outing, obviously, but it's not as though Eyre hasn't done it before - from 2003-05, he exceeded 30 pitches in an appearance 10 times. It's one outing, a bit early to start talking about systematic pitcher abuse or whatever it is you're worried about. The circumstances yesterday, with the offence batting around without making an out with the other bullpen lefty on the mound, were somewhat exceptional.

Posted
That's a very interesting and persuasive argument, and you're right that I did overlook it. However, on the flip side, I think an argument can be made that getting all your pitchers into a game just to get a feel for proper competitive baseball again is worth something. Also, Jerome Williams doesn't deal with who should be pitching the bottom of the sixth (or would you bring him in there maybe?),

 

Williamson and Eyre pitched the 6th. Williams goes 7-9. Wuertz, Howry and Dempster are available in case Jerome implodes.

 

 

There's absolutely no justification for extending an important short-man coming off years where there was already concern that he was overused.

 

And there's no justification for completely overreacting either.

It's one outing, a bit early to start talking about systematic pitcher abuse or whatever it is you're worried about.

 

Who is completely overreacting? When I noted the problem yesterday I acknowledged that it was nitpicky in nature. But, it is symptomatic of the problems of having Dusty as manager, one of which is the failure to think ahead with bullpen moves. My guess is he didn't even consider Williams. He's constantly caught behind on these moves, and he's done stuff like this, unnecessarily extending guys, over and over. So while the first game is too early to start judging this year's team, it's not too early to start noticing the continuation of trends from the past 3 years of Dusty in Chicago, not to mention earlier in his career, when he built his reputation as a terrible in-game strategist, bullpen mismanager and arm abuser.

Posted

 

I disagree. 10-5 with the bases loaded and no outs is the best chance you're ever going to get of killing the game off. With the umpire's small zone, in that ballpark, against a very potent Cincinnati offence, a five run lead isn't as big as it sounds (indeed, the Cubs had already blown a five run lead in the game, and they blew at five run lead in the last Spring Training game too, for what that's worth). Ohman's the first pitcher you've used out of the bullpen, so you've got another five if you need them. You can afford to burn Ohman, go for the jugular with the best pinch hitter you've got, and the worst case scenario then is that you need to bring in another pitcher, you have one less pinch-hitter to use later and you still have a five run lead. The best case scenario is that the game is absolutely over and the Reds have no chance of recovering from a eight, nine, ten run deficit.

 

I think our differences in opinion on the situtation center around our differences in how willing we are to burn Ohman. against the left handed dominate lineup of the Reds, I think Ohman was needed for more than just one batter.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

I can understand analyzing this from a baseball strategy standpoint, and coming to the conclusion that Dusty's moves weren't the best or didn't fit the situation.

 

But given the lead we had it's going a bit too far to crucify Dusty here. If it's a close game, and he blows it big time (which we all know will happen), then I'll take it the next step.

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