Neifi vs. Walker defensively

[srbin84]

I'm wondering how much of Neifi's poor offense is cancelled out by his defense.

 

Neifi Perez career defensive stats at 2B:

 

GP 178 GS 138 FPCT .988 RF 5.78 ZR .833

 

That's basically one whole season. I couldn't find any 2B in baseball who can match these numbers.

 

Walker has a career FPCT .981 RF 4.75 ZR .792

 

I did some simple math and based on their career total chances per inning: Neifi is going to participate in 823 plays in a full season at 2B while Walker, in the same number innings, will participate in 680. Add to that the fact that Neifi is going to convert .7% more of his chances than Neifi and the disparity is even greater. I'm not sure how many more out that means we will have with Neifi as the 2B rather than Walker, but it seems like a lot.

 

 

* I did find one 2B who seems to be of the same caliber defensive 2B as Neifi, 9 time Gold Glove winner Ryne Sandberg. So basically, we have Ryne Sandberg defensively on our roster. I'm not saying that makes him a better player than Walker, but we should objectively look at the possibility.

[BigbadB]

823 plays on a ball to 680 is less than 1 extra play per game. How much of an impact can one more hit by the opposing team (Perez) per game be as opposed to getting on base (Walker's OBP compared to Neifi's) nearly 1 more time per game?

[moorecg]

823 plays on a ball to 680 is less than 1 extra play per game. How much of an impact can one more hit by the opposing team (Perez) per game be as opposed to getting on base (Walker's OBP compared to Neifi's) nearly 1 more time per game?

 

Theoretically, if Neifi keeps the other team off the bases one more time a game, and Walker gets on base one more time a game than Neifi...wouldn't it be a net wash between the two of them? With a possible edge to Neifi as the extra out would save our staff pitches which historically seems to be an issue with us.

 

 

(Note, I'm not advocating Neifi...just speaking hypotheticals here)

[BigbadB]

823 plays on a ball to 680 is less than 1 extra play per game. How much of an impact can one more hit by the opposing team (Perez) per game be as opposed to getting on base (Walker's OBP compared to Neifi's) nearly 1 more time per game?

 

Theoretically, if Neifi keeps the other team off the bases one more time a game, and Walker gets on base one more time a game than Neifi...wouldn't it be a net wash between the two of them? With a possible edge to Neifi as the extra out would save our staff pitches which historically seems to be an issue with us.

 

 

(Note, I'm not advocating Neifi...just speaking hypotheticals here)

 

We mustn't forget that Neifi is very good at making 2 outs with one swing of the bat, also.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

823 plays on a ball to 680 is less than 1 extra play per game. How much of an impact can one more hit by the opposing team (Perez) per game be as opposed to getting on base (Walker's OBP compared to Neifi's) nearly 1 more time per game?

 

Theoretically, if Neifi keeps the other team off the bases one more time a game, and Walker gets on base one more time a game than Neifi...wouldn't it be a net wash between the two of them? With a possible edge to Neifi as the extra out would save our staff pitches which historically seems to be an issue with us.

 

 

(Note, I'm not advocating Neifi...just speaking hypotheticals here)

 

The original math is faulty. You can't just multiply for a full season and compare, because the numbers were compiled under different circumstances. Common sense dictates that there are only so many balls the second baseman gets each game, and the number that Neifi can get to more than Walker is less than one full chance per game.

[srbin84]

The original math is faulty. You can't just multiply for a full season and compare, because the numbers were compiled under different circumstances. Common sense dictates that there are only so many balls the second baseman gets each game, and the number that Neifi can get to more than Walker is less than one full chance per game.

 

The math isn't 100% accurate, but pretty close and as close as we can figure when comparing the two. The point of all of this is to illustrate the importance of defense and the fact that these two players are pretty close to each other in value while the general opinion of fans would lead one to believe Walker is much better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The original math is faulty. You can't just multiply for a full season and compare, because the numbers were compiled under different circumstances. Common sense dictates that there are only so many balls the second baseman gets each game, and the number that Neifi can get to more than Walker is less than one full chance per game.

 

The math isn't 100% accurate, but pretty close and as close as we can figure when comparing the two. The point of all of this is to illustrate the importance of defense and the fact that these two players are pretty close to each other in value while the general opinion of fans would lead one to believe Walker is much better.

 

No, it's not close at all. There's way too much variance to even consider that an apt comparison. Neifi is an above average defender, Walker ranges from slightly below average to below average, depending on the year. Walker is a good hitter, especially for a second baseman. Neifi is an awful hitter, no matter what the position. His defense doesn't bridge the gap for his offensive deficiencies, not by a long shot.

[rawaction]

The original math is faulty. You can't just multiply for a full season and compare, because the numbers were compiled under different circumstances. Common sense dictates that there are only so many balls the second baseman gets each game, and the number that Neifi can get to more than Walker is less than one full chance per game.

 

The math isn't 100% accurate, but pretty close and as close as we can figure when comparing the two. The point of all of this is to illustrate the importance of defense and the fact that these two players are pretty close to each other in value while the general opinion of fans would lead one to believe Walker is much better.

 

Isn't it also assuming that offense and defense are equal if you conclude they are of similar value? I think offense is at least twice as important as defense. And getting on base (where Walker and Neifi have the largest gap in production) is more valuable than just regular production. The last 2 especially so when you look at the team makeup of the Cubs. Sure for the Yankees, Walker and Neifi would be closer in value, because they have less of a need for offense. But for a team with an average at best offense, and well below average OBP....Walker has much more value than Neifi Perez.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Neifi is an awful hitter, no matter what the position.

 

2005 OPS:

Neifi - 681

Carlos - 763

 

I realize the sample size is much different, but c'mon...

[UK1679666180]

Neifi had the second best offensive season of his career last year and the second best defenisvely of his career.

 

Walker had either his best or second best season offensively last year and probably his second worst defensively.

 

Depending on how well Walker has recovered from his knee injury, it is more likely that Perez will regress more offensively (which was well below avg) and defensively. I expect Walker to regress offensively, but not as much as I expect Perez to.

 

Perez definitely has the lower margin for error b/c A)He is the inferior player and B)His offense last year was decent for backup middle infielder, if he goes back his career numbers, his only value will be as a late inning replacement.

[srbin84]

Let me reiterate that I want Walker to be the starting second baseman with Neifi replacing him for D every game we have a late lead in, but how can figure out how many more hits or extra bases Neifi takes away per game?

[UK1679666180]

It's impossible to find out an exact number.

 

Based on FRAA (fielding runs above avg.) Perez saved 22 more runs last year above avg.

 

While Walker scored 26 more runs above avg. than Neifi last year.

 

I expect each of those numbers to sway more in Walker's favor this year.

[srbin84]

It's impossible to find out an exact number.

 

Based on FRAA (fielding runs above avg.) Perez saved 22 more runs last year above avg.

 

While Walker scored 26 more runs above avg. than Neifi last year.

 

I expect each of those numbers to sway more in Walker's favor this year.

 

Interesting, how about how many runs below average Walker let up? Same for Neifi with offense?

[Abe Frohman]

Todd Walker is not the best defensive 2nd Baseman, but I think he gets a really unfair rap.

 

Take this comparison from his last full year, 2002. The next year, Luis Castillo won the Gold Glove at 2B in the NL. Castillo is considered one of the best defensive 2nd Basemen in the game. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do tell some of it.

 

L. C. 2003: 152 games, 286 putouts, 433 assists, 10 E, 99 DP, .986 F%

T. W. 2002: 154 games, 315 putouts, 438 assists, 8 E, 93 DP, .989 F%

 

The knock on Walker is his range and inability to turn the DP, but as those statistics show, Walker obviously got to as many balls (or more) and turned double plays at the same frequency as Castillo.

 

The next year for Walker was not quite so good defensively. He played in less games (139) and commit double the errors (16). Red Sox management claimed that no team had more hits that got through the right side than they did (an obvious knock on Walker), but I think it is kinda obvious that it is a concentration/work issue more than it is a "inability to field" issue.

 

To me, the 02 stats on Walker show that he can clearly play defensively. The question is why not every year?

[Bergy92]

if only we had Charlie Eppes from the FBI to help us figure out these Numb3rs?????

[UK1679666180]

It's impossible to find out an exact number.

 

Based on FRAA (fielding runs above avg.) Perez saved 22 more runs last year above avg.

 

While Walker scored 26 more runs above avg. than Neifi last year.

 

I expect each of those numbers to sway more in Walker's favor this year.

 

Interesting, how about how many runs below average Walker let up? Same for Neifi with offense?

 

Last year or their careers?

 

Walker was 6 runs below avg. on defense, 10 runs above avg. offensively.

 

Perez was 16 runs above avg. on defense, and 16 runs below avg. offensively.

[srbin84]

It's impossible to find out an exact number.

 

Based on FRAA (fielding runs above avg.) Perez saved 22 more runs last year above avg.

 

While Walker scored 26 more runs above avg. than Neifi last year.

 

I expect each of those numbers to sway more in Walker's favor this year.

 

Interesting, how about how many runs below average Walker let up? Same for Neifi with offense?

 

Last year or their careers?

 

Walker was 6 runs below avg. on defense, 10 runs above avg. offensively.

 

Perez was 16 runs above avg. on defense, and 16 runs below avg. offensively.

 

That's good enough. I suppose if you just project Walker's numbers from last year over a whole season, he's better than Neifi, but if Neifi started at second the whole season, his runs above avg. defensively would have been higher. All in all, these stats indicate Walker is a little better than Neifi in terms of these stats. Still, I think it has been proven these players are closer to each other in value than many of us thought.

[UK1679666180]

Still, I think it has been proven these players are closer to each other in value than many of us thought

 

Not if you look at their career.

 

Walker has been about 81 runs better than Perez, while having played in 130 less games.

[srbin84]

Still, I think it has been proven these players are closer to each other in value than many of us thought

 

Not if you look at their career.

 

Walker has been about 81 runs better than Perez, while having played in 130 less games.

 

Well, I guess we don't know what happens to Perez' defensive runs value when he plays a whole season at second. I already found stats that indicate he is Sandberg's equal at second base based on his career numbers. That is what intrigues me so much about him because Sandberg was a hell of a defensive player, and while I was too young to watch him play in his prime, all indications are from what I have heard about him and what I have seen stat wise that his defense played a big part in the Cubs success while he played. Just how much that superior quality of defense is worth vs. offensive production is still in question, but it seems to be quite valuable by your runs better stats. Can you find some of Sandberg's runs better defensive stats?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Well, I guess we don't know what happens to Perez' defensive runs value when he plays a whole season at second. I already found stats that indicate he is Sandberg's equal at second base based on his career numbers. That is what intrigues me so much about him because Sandberg was a hell of a defensive player, and while I was too young to watch him play in his prime, all indications are from what I have heard about him and what I have seen stat wise that his defense played a big part in the Cubs success while he played. Just how much that superior quality of defense is worth vs. offensive production is still in question, but it seems to be quite valuable by your runs better stats. Can you find some of Sandberg's runs better defensive stats?

 

Sandberg's value was that he could hit in addition to playing good defense. Neifi is barely above average defensively and hits as well as my little sister.

[UK1679666180]

Just how much that superior quality of defense is worth vs. offensive production is still in question, but it seems to be quite valuable by your runs better stats. Can you find some of Sandberg's runs better defensive stats?

 

72 runs above avg. for his career defensively, Perez is at 103 runs with most of it being at SS.

 

Of course, Neifi is about 221 runs below avg. for his career offensively, while Ryno was 260 runs above avg.

 

This indicates to me that Neifi is best used as a late inning defenisve replacement.

[srbin84]

Well, I guess we don't know what happens to Perez' defensive runs value when he plays a whole season at second. I already found stats that indicate he is Sandberg's equal at second base based on his career numbers. That is what intrigues me so much about him because Sandberg was a hell of a defensive player, and while I was too young to watch him play in his prime, all indications are from what I have heard about him and what I have seen stat wise that his defense played a big part in the Cubs success while he played. Just how much that superior quality of defense is worth vs. offensive production is still in question, but it seems to be quite valuable by your runs better stats. Can you find some of Sandberg's runs better defensive stats?

 

Sandberg's value was that he could hit in addition to playing good defense. Neifi is barely above average defensively and hits as well as my little sister.

 

I agree with you, but just from watching Walker with Cubs, not from the media perception, stats or anything else, I'd say Walker is as bad a defensive player as Neifi is an offensive player. I do like Walker a lot as a hitter though.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I agree with you, but just from watching Walker with Cubs, not from the media perception, stats or anything else, I'd say Walker is as bad a defensive player as Neifi is an offensive player. I do like Walker a lot as a hitter though.

 

Walker is nowhere near as bad defensively as Neifi is offensively. Walker is below average, not excruciating to watch. Neifi just plain sucks with a bat.

[srbin84]

Just how much that superior quality of defense is worth vs. offensive production is still in question, but it seems to be quite valuable by your runs better stats. Can you find some of Sandberg's runs better defensive stats?

 

72 runs above avg. for his career defensively, Perez is at 103 runs with most of it being at SS.

 

Of course, Neifi is about 221 runs below avg. for his career offensively, while Ryno was 260 runs above avg.

 

This indicates to me that Neifi is best used as a late inning defenisve replacement.

 

Cool, well, I still stick to the idea of starting Walker and replacing him with Neifi EVERY SINGLE GAME we have a lead in. I just hope Dusty knows how to use them. I highly doubt it though. Furthermore, I think every team should put a pinch runner in at least once a game. It kills me to watch them leave guys like Walker, Ramirez or Murton in there down by a run or two in the 9th when we have/had Hairston, Patterson, Goodwin sitting on the bench.

[goonys evil twin]

It kills me to watch them leave guys like Walker, Ramirez or Murton in there down by a run or two in the 9th when we have/had Hairston, Patterson, Goodwin sitting on the bench.

 

It kills you? Ramirez I can see. But Walker isn't nearly as slow as him, and Murton is reasonably fast himself. Anyway, I highly doubt there are many situations in which Dusty left a speedster on the bench in the 9th with Ramirez on base and the team down by a run.