BP predicts the '06 records

[JGalt73]

Each year BP forecasts runs scored and runs allowed using predited playing time forecasts and player projections (PECOTA) for all teams.

 

This year's NL Central predictions:

 

Cardinals: 88-73 (RS 772, RA 701)

Cubs 85-76 (RS 733, RA 689)

Brewers 83-78 (RS 752, RA 725)

Astros 81-80 (RS 724, RA 726)

Reds 80-81 (RS 801, RA 812)

Pirates 80-81 (RS 747, RA 754)

 

Their predictions for the Cubs are based upon: 28+ starts from Z, Prior, Maddux, and Williams with Miller and Rusch splitting the 5 spot. Wood is slotted at no starts and 100 innings of relief. The projection also uses a 3-way split of current 2B slot. They usually update the playing time projections throughout ST. (And, yes they did not round to 162 games!)

 

FWIW, your other projected NL winners:

 

Mets 88-73

LA 87-74

Phils 86-75

 

 

Last year the pre-seaon predictions were:

Cards 91-71 (802RS/707RA); Cubs 89-73 (759RS/690RA); Astros 78-84 (709RS/739RA)

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

[TXCubsFan]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

Which raises a good question, "When does Wood transition from a starter to a power closer?"

[shawndgoldman]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

What does BP project Wood to do? Less than 20 starts? If so, then i think the Cubs could improve on the above projection just out of a healthy season from Wood (yes, i know that may be asking a lot).

[Holy Cow]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

What does BP project Wood to do? Less than 20 starts? If so, then i think the Cubs could improve on the above projection just out of a healthy season from Wood (yes, i know that may be asking a lot).

 

BP projects Wood to get 100 innings of relief. And I think what you said was MPM's point. Anyway, the way to figure it out exactly would be to take his VORP from 2003 or maybe his career average VORP, subtract William's projected VORP, and plug into baseball's pythagorean theroem.

[otis89]

How come the records add up to 161 games?

[GhostRunner]

Glad to see that BP penciled in a heartbreaking 1-game deficit for the NL Wild Card berth. :evil:

 

Pardon me while I slip into a coma for the next 8 months and spare myself the grief of hoping. I do like the RA prediction, though.

[erik316wttn]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

Which raises a good question, "When does Wood transition from a starter to a power closer?"

 

Which raises another question: When will we have 500 threads about Kerry converting from starter to closer?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

How come the records add up to 161 games?

 

Cuz BP can't count.

[JGalt73]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

What does BP project Wood to do? Less than 20 starts? If so, then i think the Cubs could improve on the above projection just out of a healthy season from Wood (yes, i know that may be asking a lot).

 

BP projects Wood to get 100 innings of relief. And I think what you said was MPM's point. Anyway, the way to figure it out exactly would be to take his VORP from 2003 or maybe his career average VORP, subtract William's projected VORP, and plug into baseball's pythagorean theroem.

 

Per these projections:

Wood's VORP in 99IP (of relief) = 24

Williams VORP in 160IP (28 starts) = 7.0

 

If you play the numbers, you unfortunately have to remove the 2 games Wood "wins" with his 24 VORP in relief and change some of those innings to Williams (or someone) in the bullpen who is unlikley to be as good. If you suppose Wood would have a VORP of 36 with 50% more innings (150IP) and his bullpen replacement is Williams, then you're looking at another 12 runs prevented. So Wood in 150IP makes this team look about a win better, and in 200IP makes it look about 2 wins better.

[mhuber92211]

Looks like the race in the central will be a good one involving nearly all of the teams.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

 

What does BP project Wood to do? Less than 20 starts? If so, then i think the Cubs could improve on the above projection just out of a healthy season from Wood (yes, i know that may be asking a lot).

 

BP projects Wood to get 100 innings of relief. And I think what you said was MPM's point. Anyway, the way to figure it out exactly would be to take his VORP from 2003 or maybe his career average VORP, subtract William's projected VORP, and plug into baseball's pythagorean theroem.

 

Per these projections:

Wood's VORP in 99IP (of relief) = 24

Williams VORP in 160IP (28 starts) = 7.0

 

If you play the numbers, you unfortunately have to remove the 2 games Wood "wins" with his 24 VORP in relief and change some of those innings to Williams (or someone) in the bullpen who is unlikley to be as good. If you suppose Wood would have a VORP of 36 with 50% more innings (150IP) and his bullpen replacement is Williams, then you're looking at another 12 runs prevented. So Wood in 150IP makes this team look about a win better, and in 200IP makes it look about 2 wins better.

 

Damn. I was starting to get optimistic. [-X Will I ever learn?

[Vinestal]

This doesn't take into account Angel Guzman making his major league debut at the all-star break and then being lights out the rest of the season. Or any trades we might make at the trade deadline. I never take preseason predictions seriously there are way to many factors involved during a season. I think its time for some of our injury bad luck to be transfered to the Cardinals.

[Balsa]

I'm sorry but there's no way the Cardinals fall that much, and that the rest of the division does so well. There's no way the NL Central is gonna be that close top to bottom.

[ChiCubsFan]

Nobody in the NL even tops 90 Wins? Okay...

[Backtobanks]

Each year BP forecasts runs scored and runs allowed using predited playing time forecasts and player projections (PECOTA) for all teams.

 

This year's NL Central predictions:

 

Cardinals: 88-73 (RS 772, RA 701)

Cubs 85-76 (RS 733, RA 689)

Brewers 83-78 (RS 752, RA 725)

Astros 81-80 (RS 724, RA 726)

Reds 80-81 (RS 801, RA 812)

Pirates 80-81 (RS 747, RA 754)

 

Their predictions for the Cubs are based upon: 28+ starts from Z, Prior, Maddux, and Williams with Miller and Rusch splitting the 5 spot. Wood is slotted at no starts and 100 innings of relief. The projection also uses a 3-way split of current 2B slot. They usually update the playing time projections throughout ST. (And, yes they did not round to 162 games!)

 

FWIW, your other projected NL winners:

 

Mets 88-73

LA 87-74

Phils 86-75

 

 

Last year the pre-seaon predictions were:

Cards 91-71 (802RS/707RA); Cubs 89-73 (759RS/690RA); Astros 78-84 (709RS/739RA)

 

That looks a little optimistic for the Pirates and Reds, but the others look reasonably accurate. I think if you take their predicted records as a starting point and then watch for an outstanding rookie to catch fire or a season-ending injury to a key player and adjust the predictions accordingly, they will be very accurate.

[JGalt73]

Nobody in the NL even tops 90 Wins? Okay...

 

Only 2 teams (St.Louis, Atlanta) actually had 90+ wins in the NL last year. And only 2 (St. Louis and Philadelphia) "should have won" >=90 games (91,90) based on how they hit and what they allowed as pitchers last year.

 

BP predicted only the Cards as the only >=90 game winner in the NL in 2005.

[Tim]

The method BP uses for this prediction is going to have everyone regress to the mean. So there will be very few 90 game winners/losers in either league.

[Soul]

I'm suprised they have us picked that good...

[frostwyrm]

Each year BP forecasts runs scored and runs allowed using predited playing time forecasts and player projections (PECOTA) for all teams.

 

This year's NL Central predictions:

 

Cardinals: 88-73 (RS 772, RA 701)

Cubs 85-76 (RS 733, RA 689)

Brewers 83-78 (RS 752, RA 725)

Astros 81-80 (RS 724, RA 726)

Reds 80-81 (RS 801, RA 812)

Pirates 80-81 (RS 747, RA 754)

 

Their predictions for the Cubs are based upon: 28+ starts from Z, Prior, Maddux, and Williams with Miller and Rusch splitting the 5 spot. Wood is slotted at no starts and 100 innings of relief. The projection also uses a 3-way split of current 2B slot. They usually update the playing time projections throughout ST. (And, yes they did not round to 162 games!)

 

FWIW, your other projected NL winners:

 

Mets 88-73

LA 87-74

Phils 86-75

 

 

Last year the pre-seaon predictions were:

Cards 91-71 (802RS/707RA); Cubs 89-73 (759RS/690RA); Astros 78-84 (709RS/739RA)

 

That looks a little optimistic for the Pirates and Reds, but the others look reasonably accurate. I think if you take their predicted records as a starting point and then watch for an outstanding rookie to catch fire or a season-ending injury to a key player and adjust the predictions accordingly, they will be very accurate.

 

Maybe BP thinks the NL sucks in general, and that's why 80 wins for the Pirates and Reds. I noticed ESPN only had 3 NL teams in the top 11 in their power rankings.

[soccer10k]

Nobody in the NL even tops 90 Wins? Okay...

 

The numbers agree with you. The last time no team in the National League won at least 90 games when playing a full season was way back in 1959 when the Los Angeles Dodgers won only 88 games but the Dodgers only played 156 games that year. That stretch, of course, is excludes the strike shortened seasons in 1981, 1994, and 1995. Even if the teams' records in those three seasons are extrapolated for a full 162 games, each would have had at least 2 teams win over 90 games. There would have been 4 in 1981, 4 in 1994, and 2 in 1995. Since MLB adopted the three division per league format in 1994, the least number of wins it took to gain homefield throughout the playoffs was 93 in 2001. Also, since the three division format was adopted, there have only been two seasons in which only two teams won more than 90 games (1995 and 2005). Based on that, I find it highly unlikely that no NL team will win at least 90 games this year and chances are that more than two will win at least 90 games.

[barryfoote]

The Pirates at 80 wins? This team hasn't won 80 games since 1992.

 

I believe that these were their major offseason moves: Sean Casey, Joe Randa , Jeromy Burnitz and Roberto Hernandez

 

I cant see these four players pushing them from 67 to 80 wins.

[AlamoCub]

The Pirates at 80 wins? This team hasn't won 80 games since 1992.

 

I believe that these were their major offseason moves: Sean Casey, Joe Randa , Jeromy Burnitz and Roberto Hernandez

 

I cant see these four players pushing them from 67 to 80 wins.

 

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. If Jason Bay continues at the level he played at last year, and Oliver Perez returns to his form from a few seasons ago, and Zach Duke and one of their other young pitchers step up, then I could see them pushing 75 wins. I think 80 is about the best they can hope for, but a lot will have to go right for that to happen.

[Ender]

Just because it doesn't predict anyone to win over 90 games doesn't mean someone wont' win over 90. There will be a good team that wins more than its fair share of 1 run games or just completely out performs their RS vs RA or has a lot of players put up career years (see the White Sox last year and the Nationals in the first half last year). Those type of events will push someone over their expected W/L records.

 

The same can be said for hitting projections. I would bet that at least one player hits 50 HR's next year, but there is not a single person I feel comfortable projecting as a 50 HR hitter. I would bet that someone breaks 140 RBI but I'm not sure I'm comfortable projecting any player in baseball to actually drive in 140 runs. Those events are generally are a combination of good health(see Teix and his 720 PA's last year), a better than normal year(see Andruw Jones) and luck(see Beltre's hit rate in 2004).