Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)

[JGalt73]

Available now at BP, no work for me today...

 

The "rookies" projections:

 

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP in 473 PA

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP in 542 PA

 

...more to come...

Edited January 28, 2006 by JGalt73

[BigbadB]

Wow, Dusty is going to play the kids. :shock:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wow, Pecota was right with my .340/.420 prediction for Murton.

[JGalt73]

Your starting five:

 

Maddux: 202 inn (30 starts), 3.77 ERA, 32.2 VORP

Prior: 196 inn (30 starts), 3.28 ERA, 41.5 VORP

Williams: 158 inn (27 starts), 4.71 ERA, 9.1 VORP

Wood: 100 inn (15 starts), 3.52 ERA, 22.4 VORP

Zambrano: 224 inn (33 starts), 3.29 ERA, 49.3 VORP

 

6th starter: Rusch 104 inn (12 starts), 4.56 ERA, 9.0 VORP

[goonys evil twin]

Your starting five:

 

Maddux: 202 inn (30 starts), 3.77 ERA, 32.2 VORP

 

I don't buy that for Maddux. That's barely a stepdown from their prediction from 2004 188.0 3.56 33.8. I thought I saw he was at 28.1 last year. So they are assuming he'll improve? He'll turn 40 this year, and his past 3 ERA+ have been 105, 113 and 101. I realize he doesn't have any real comparables throughout history, but I think we would be lucky if he just doesn't regress. Counting on improvement seems far-fetched.

 

 

note, I just googled VORP and Maddux for my numbers, so if some other source has something else, I could be wrong.

[JGalt73]

And eight position players:

 

Barrett .272/.336/.443, 16.0 VORP

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP

Jones .268/.327/.441, 6.0 VORP

Lee .298/.383/.570, 51.0 VORP

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP

Pierre .297 /.348/.361, 13.0 VORP

Ramirez .293/.356/.540, 42.0 VORP

Walker .279/.341/.424, 15.0 VORP

 

 

That outfield is scary (27.5 VORP!).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Your starting five:

 

Maddux: 202 inn (30 starts), 3.77 ERA, 32.2 VORP

 

I don't buy that for Maddux. That's barely a stepdown from their prediction from 2004 188.0 3.56 33.8. I thought I saw he was at 28.1 last year. So they are assuming he'll improve? He'll turn 40 this year, and his past 3 ERA+ have been 105, 113 and 101. I realize he doesn't have any real comparables throughout history, but I think we would be lucky if he just doesn't regress. Counting on improvement seems far-fetched.

 

 

note, I just googled VORP and Maddux for my numbers, so if some other source has something else, I could be wrong.

 

BP has 28.1 for Maddux in '05.

[JGalt73]

Your starting five:

 

Maddux: 202 inn (30 starts), 3.77 ERA, 32.2 VORP

 

I don't buy that for Maddux. That's barely a stepdown from their prediction from 2004 188.0 3.56 33.8. I thought I saw he was at 28.1 last year. So they are assuming he'll improve? He'll turn 40 this year, and his past 3 ERA+ have been 105, 113 and 101. I realize he doesn't have any real comparables throughout history, but I think we would be lucky if he just doesn't regress. Counting on improvement seems far-fetched.

 

 

note, I just googled VORP and Maddux for my numbers, so if some other source has something else, I could be wrong.

 

Not sure why, but the Bill James abstract is similarly optomistic on Maddux: 210 innings, 3.56 ERA. Perhaps it's because the only pitchers regularly pitching at age 40 are generally very good (or have been)?

[bhogg]

I think Maddux's success will be directly related to the health of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (assuming Z is his normal self).

 

IF maddux is allowed to be the 4th starter, I think he'll flourish.

[goonys evil twin]

IF maddux is allowed to be the 4th starter, I think he'll flourish.

 

I don't know what this means. His job will be the same regardless. And over the course of the year, he'll face the same level of competition regardless. If those guys are hurt and they try to get him to throw 8-9 innings a game, it will have an effect, but I don't see that happening. Spot in the rotation doesn't really have an effect on performance. The only exception might be if you took an unstable unproven kid and made him your opening day guy and put all your hopes on him. That stress might affect him.

 

But Greg's spot in the order is not going to affect how he pitches.

[Jehrico]

I wonder if the better pen would have anything to do with it...no excuse for Dusty letting him go over 6 innings next year...

[Guest]

That outfield is scary (27.5 VORP!).

Can't say I'm surprised. Once again our outfield looks to be one of (if not the) worst in the majors. Aside from Lee and Ramirez the offense as a whole is quite unimpressive, particularly if Neifi ends up usurping a larger portion of Walker's ABs than BP predicts.

[frostwyrm]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

[cubweiser03]

Maddux: 202 inn (30 starts), 3.77 ERA, 32.2 VORP

What?! God just isn't that kind to Cubs.

 

Williams: 158 inn (27 starts), 4.71 ERA, 9.1 VORP

Williams may be fat but his ERA wont be that fat if he is a starter.

I dont have any beefs with the others.

[stitchface]

I wonder if the better pen would have anything to do with it...no excuse for Dusty letting him go over 6 innings next year...

 

I don't think PECOTA accounts for your teammates. That would be reflected in his IP (should be about 180 if you are right).

[JGalt73]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

[stitchface]

gross. i sure hope he doesn't get 400 ABs.

[Jon]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

407 PAs? I don't think him going from batting leadoff to batting second would reduce his PAs that much.

[cubweiser03]

gross. i sure hope he doesn't get 400 ABs.

yeah and how do they figure cedeno/walker/neifi are going to get 1200 PA. Guess Hairston is getting 0 PA at 2nd.

[stitchface]

The team has nothing to do with it. Its projected based on the previous three years, age, and some other factors. Nobody considers where they are playing though or who their teammates are.

[shawndgoldman]

Available now at BP, no work for me today...

 

The "rookies" projections:

 

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP in 473 PA

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP in 542 PA

 

...more to come...

 

Is VORP normalized to position, or is defense included, or both? Why does Cedeno get more VORP with lower rate stats over fewer PAs?

[sethuel1]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

I'd take a .032 IsoD out of Neifi.

[sethuel1]

Available now at BP, no work for me today...

 

The "rookies" projections:

 

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP in 473 PA

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP in 542 PA

 

...more to come...

 

Is VORP normalized to position, or is defense included, or both? Why does Cedeno get more VORP with lower rate stats over fewer PAs?

 

Nice, another SCer! Welcome!

[stitchface]

I believe it is normalized to a position - so that would suggest Cedeno's D is better than Neifi's.

[JGalt73]

Available now at BP, no work for me today...

 

The "rookies" projections:

 

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP in 473 PA

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP in 542 PA

 

...more to come...

 

Is VORP normalized to position, or is defense included, or both? Why does Cedeno get more VORP with lower rate stats over fewer PAs?

 

VORP is additive, position dependent, and only includes offense.