Rosenthal on Nomar, Pie and Pierre

[Electron Blue]

This goes back to Davhern's blackjack example. Williams took some gambles, and in some cases, he made straight out bad decisions. Having your team win the WS does not mean you were the best GM in baseball that year, or anywhere near it. It's the same reason that Dusty and Guillen and other horrible managers reach and win the world series, yet are not good managers.

 

You realize you can't win at blackjack, right? The odds are always against you. I think that's a poor example.

 

True or not (I'm no gambler), doesn't matter. The example stands.

 

You have 19 - a good score that any novice knows to stand on. But you hit anyway and get absolutely lucky. Ignoring logic but winning anway is still illogical. If you want a baseball example: A GM has a five-time allstar center fielder who is in his early thirties, in good health, and showing no signs of decline. He also has a below average CF prospect who's done fairly well in AAA, but most scouts say he'll never be better than a fill-in for injuries. The GM cuts his allstar and puts his prospect in the starting lineup. The allstar goes on to spend most of the year around the mendoza line and the DL; the prospect wins the ROY and gets MVP votes. Was it smart? No. Did it pay off? Well, sure. Should the GM cut all his good players and replace them with mid-level prospects? No.

 

Of course maybe the GM was a genius and knew what he was doing. But if there's no reason to assume he did (given his own past and the pasts of the players he dealt with), how much credit for a job well done does he deserve compared to a job luckily done?

[CardsFanInChiTown]

BP on JW...

 

When you consider the balance of decisions, however, you have to acknolwedge that Williams has shown incredible development in the role of Sox GM. It's possible, maybe even probable, that Williams was dropped into a GM's role before he was ready. He had a bad start to his career, and made a lot of mistakes before he was ready to do his job. Now, however, he's doing the kinds of things--signing second-tier free agents, working the free-talent market, finding international talent making solid trades, building bullpens--that you look for in a championship-caliber GM.

 

I think the trade of Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome is as bold a decision as any general manager of a championship team has made in years. Beyond merely being bold, though, it's the right decision. Kenny Williams has shown that he's not going to get caught up in the hype of what the 2005 teams was or attached to the players who added a championship to his resume. That's the mark of a top-tier general manager, and it shows that Williams has developed into just that.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4624

[Andy]

If Burnitz had hit 45 home runs and hit .300 in RF for the Cubs in 2005, would that make signing him when you could have gotten a much more dependable Alou back for just a little more a smart move?

 

If Neifi somehow hits .285 next season with a .350 OBP and 15 home runs at short, does that make signing him to a 2 year, 5 million deal after having a sub-.300 OBP in 2005 any smarter?

 

If we traded DLee for Jose Reyes, scored 80-100 runs fewer than 2005, and won the World Series anyway behind career years from Wood, Williams, Rusch and Novoa, would Hendry be smart for making that move?

 

I'm not saying Kenny Williams is Forrest Gump up there, but the White Sox's championship this season was earned by eleven men: those Sox pitchers that all had great years.

[Geech]

I think Joe Sheehan is my least favorite BP author. I'm surprised he didn't just go right out and say that Kenny Williams does all the little things.

[YearofDaCubs]

If Burnitz had hit 45 home runs and hit .300 in RF for the Cubs in 2005, would that make signing him when you could have gotten a much more dependable Alou back for just a little more a smart move?

 

If Neifi somehow hits .285 next season with a .350 OBP and 15 home runs at short, does that make signing him to a 2 year, 5 million deal after having a sub-.300 OBP in 2005 any smarter?

 

If we traded DLee for Jose Reyes, scored 80-100 runs fewer than 2005, and won the World Series anyway behind career years from Wood, Williams, Rusch and Novoa, would Hendry be smart for making that move?

 

I'm not saying Kenny Williams is Forrest Gump up there, but the White Sox's championship this season was earned by eleven men: those Sox pitchers that all had great years.

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

[stitchface]

This goes back to Davhern's blackjack example. Williams took some gambles, and in some cases, he made straight out bad decisions. Having your team win the WS does not mean you were the best GM in baseball that year, or anywhere near it. It's the same reason that Dusty and Guillen and other horrible managers reach and win the world series, yet are not good managers.

 

You realize you can't win at blackjack, right? The odds are always against you. I think that's a poor example.

 

Did you see the example? If you hit on 19 and get a 2, does that make you smart? No, it makes you lucky. It's not a perfect example, but it's the idea of going against the best move and still having it work out.

 

BTW, ever read "Bringing Down the House"? You can win at blackjack.

 

Not if you don't count (and believe me I have firsthand knowledge of how you can beat the house). Anyway the point is you are taking a weighed risk - if you know you can't win without getting hit on 19, then why not take the hit? The risks KW took were not big risks because the consequences of failure are not disastrous and the alternatives were bleak. He took the chances he did because they had a chance to win. Would you prefer accepting no chance to win? Yea he got lucky, but he gave himself the opportunity to get lucky. The difference with your blackjack example is that you can still win with a 19 - KW couldn't win without taking the hit.

[Geech]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think Joe Sheehan is my least favorite BP author. I'm surprised he didn't just go right out and say that Kenny Williams does all the little things.

 

Honestly, I thought it was a little over the top however in the saber world I think JW is underrated.

[YearofDaCubs]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

 

Some of it was luck however most teams that win the WS are at least a little lucky.

[YearofDaCubs]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

 

Some of it was luck however most teams that win the WS are lucky.

So KW deserves no credit for building the WS roster and hiring the manager?

[Andy]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

 

Some of it was luck however most teams that win the WS are lucky.

So KW deserves no credit for building the WS roster and hiring the manager?

Wasn't it a batboy or something that told Guillen to pinch hit Blum in Game 3 of the World Series? (I definitely heard Guillen say this in an interview on ESPN)

 

Sign him to a contract because he helped win a title!

[YearofDaCubs]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

 

Some of it was luck however most teams that win the WS are lucky.

So KW deserves no credit for building the WS roster and hiring the manager?

Wasn't it a batboy or something that told Guillen to pinch hit Blum in Game 3 of the World Series? (I definitely heard Guillen say this in an interview on ESPN)

 

Sign him to a contract because he helped win a title!

Guillen is the type of guy who would make things up. Secondly, that is only one game how about the others? You guys see it the way you do and call it pure luck. I will see it the way I do and say that the man deserves credit for what he did with the team last year.

Edited December 14, 2005 by YearofDaCubs

[stitchface]

ozzie does more things well than dusty. probably than 50 percent of major league managers.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

ozzie does more things well than dusty. probably than 50 percent of major league managers.

 

I hate how ozzie has his players bunt in the 1st inning however I think he does a very good job handling his pitching staff.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Earned by 11 men eh? Gee, I forgot the pitchers can score runs too. Come on that's ridiculous. Don't forget it was KW who put the team together as well. Like I said before I'm not saying KW is the best GM in baseball but he deserves credit for winning the WS. It's that simple.

 

How many runs did KW score?

How is that relative? He is the one who put the team together. Nor did I say it took 11 men to win the WS which is what I am responding to. Frankly, I'm surprised how some of you are completely discounting what he did last year by calling it pure luck. Sour Grapes.

 

Some of it was luck however most teams that win the WS are lucky.

So KW deserves no credit for building the WS roster and hiring the manager?

 

No, check out my earlier posts. I think he does.

[EastonBlues22]

For a further gambling analogy....

 

Say you're sitting on a pair of aces, but you think some else probably has trips or a straight. It doesn't make any sense to go for two pair (even though it offers the best odds to improve your hand), because two pair doesn't beat trips or a straight. What you need is a flush, so that's how you play your hand...even if the odds of getting that flush are a lot less than what they would be to get two pair.

 

If KW thought those were the risks that he needed to take to build a team that COULD POSSIBLY win it all...then he did the right things. It's quite possible that other moves might have had better chances of moderately improving the team...but if KW didn't think those moves would produce a team capable of winning it all, then it didn't matter what the odds were of improving through those deals because it would be playing for second place.

 

Better to take the risks needed to win it all and have both the chances of succeeding and failing miserably than it is to play it safe and be neither a winner or a loser.

[stitchface]

and the only other alternative is to fold . . .

[NCCubFan]

Williams definitely deserves credit for this past season. He showed a willingness to make bold moves that paid off. Whether his moves continue to pay off in the future remains to be seen, but for one season I don't think anybody can reasonably deny him any credit.

[Mizzou]

I don't know what this thread is about anymore and I'm too drunk to find out, but when I was at the bar earlier, ESPN news was constantly talking about how the Yankees have offered Nomar a contract to play 1B. I don't get that station at my house, so I'm not sure how much of the story was being rehashed, but I just figued it'd be worth mentioning that the Yankees have (apparently) offered Nomar a contract to play 1B.

 

If he accepts, I'll be very inclined to switch my allegiance from Boston to New York in the AL East. I understand Hendry's motives for not offering Nomar a contract (and for the most part agree with them) but that doesn't change the fact that I'm a bigtime Nomar fan.