Matt Murton 2006 projection

[NorthsideAvenger]

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/12/matt_murton_pro.html

 

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Would anybody be disspointed with this projection of Murton in 2006? Cause I wouldn't.

[Hosak8]

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/12/matt_murton_pro.html

 

^

Would anybody be disspointed with this projection of Murton in 2006? Cause I wouldn't.

 

I'd like to see closer to 20 HR.

[muntjack]

I think we'll see 20+ HRs in a full season. I find it fascinating that as soon as Murton's power was questioned last year, he started focusing on hitting HRs...........and it worked.

 

This guy has real talent.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's an earlier projictopn from Zips......

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5

[Guest]

As much as I like Murton and want him to succeed, I think a lot of us are getting too caught up in his 2005 numbers and placing unrealistic expectations on him. Yes, the .321/.386/.521 line looks nice, but should we really count on him repeating it? I'm not so sure.

 

Murton's GB/LD/FB split last season was 76/14/26. That in itself isn't too interesting, though it should be noted that players who hit that many ground balls rarely hit with much power. The really interesting thing is how often each of those batted ball types turned into hits. Here's murton's BA on each of the batted ball types, followed by the 2005 league average:

 

              GB        LD       FB
Murton     0.289     0.929    0.385
Lg. Avg.   0.257     0.717    0.237

More of Murton's GB than you'd expect found holes, almost none of his LD were right at a defender, and an astonishing number of his fly balls fell for hits. (Mostly due to the fact that over 25% of them landed in the seats.) If Murton's balls had fallen for hits at a rate similar to the league average he'd have only hit .257 last year, and his OPS would have been in the .750 range at best.

 

I'm not saying that Murton is a bad player or that he hasn't earned a spot on the 2006 OF, I'm just pointing out that a good portion of last year's success can probably be attributed to a bit of good luck. Unless he starts hitting more line drives and fly balls I think it's a bit foolish to count on him for a .900 OPS just yet.

[cubweiser03]

Here's an earlier projictopn from Zips......

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5

 

Matt Murton meet Michael Barrett. I take those numbers. The doubles projections seem a tad low though.

[10man]

At a glance, Murton looks like a right-handed version of Mark Grace so he will probably hit lots more doubles than that, but if Dusty actually allows him to get more than 500 AB's then i think he has it in him to reach 20 HR's.

[CuseCubFan69]

As much as I like Murton and want him to succeed, I think a lot of us are getting too caught up in his 2005 numbers and placing unrealistic expectations on him. Yes, the .321/.386/.521 line looks nice, but should we really count on him repeating it? I'm not so sure.

 

Murton's GB/LD/FB split last season was 76/14/26. That in itself isn't too interesting, though it should be noted that players who hit that many ground balls rarely hit with much power. The really interesting thing is how often each of those batted ball types turned into hits. Here's murton's BA on each of the batted ball types, followed by the 2005 league average:

 

              GB        LD       FB
Murton     0.289     0.929    0.385
Lg. Avg.   0.257     0.717    0.237

More of Murton's GB than you'd expect found holes, almost none of his LD were right at a defender, and an astonishing number of his fly balls fell for hits. (Mostly due to the fact that over 25% of them landed in the seats.) If Murton's balls had fallen for hits at a rate similar to the league average he'd have only hit .257 last year, and his OPS would have been in the .750 range at best.

 

I'm not saying that Murton is a bad player or that he hasn't earned a spot on the 2006 OF, I'm just pointing out that a good portion of last year's success can probably be attributed to a bit of good luck. Unless he starts hitting more line drives and fly balls I think it's a bit foolish to count on him for a .900 OPS just yet.

 

I understand that he may not put up a 900 OPS but when you mention grounders finding their holes is it possible that a guy that hits the ball on the nose will more than likely be able to do that?

[Guest]

As much as I like Murton and want him to succeed, I think a lot of us are getting too caught up in his 2005 numbers and placing unrealistic expectations on him. Yes, the .321/.386/.521 line looks nice, but should we really count on him repeating it? I'm not so sure.

 

Murton's GB/LD/FB split last season was 76/14/26. That in itself isn't too interesting, though it should be noted that players who hit that many ground balls rarely hit with much power. The really interesting thing is how often each of those batted ball types turned into hits. Here's murton's BA on each of the batted ball types, followed by the 2005 league average:

 

              GB        LD       FB
Murton     0.289     0.929    0.385
Lg. Avg.   0.257     0.717    0.237

More of Murton's GB than you'd expect found holes, almost none of his LD were right at a defender, and an astonishing number of his fly balls fell for hits. (Mostly due to the fact that over 25% of them landed in the seats.) If Murton's balls had fallen for hits at a rate similar to the league average he'd have only hit .257 last year, and his OPS would have been in the .750 range at best.

 

I'm not saying that Murton is a bad player or that he hasn't earned a spot on the 2006 OF, I'm just pointing out that a good portion of last year's success can probably be attributed to a bit of good luck. Unless he starts hitting more line drives and fly balls I think it's a bit foolish to count on him for a .900 OPS just yet.

 

I understand that he may not put up a 900 OPS but when you mention grounders finding their holes is it possible that a guy that hits the ball on the nose will more than likely be able to do that?

Yep. Of course a you'd expect a guy who always hits the ball on the nose to knock out more line drives than Murton does, as well. Then again, 160 PA and 122 BIP isn't much of a sample size to draw conclusions from one way or the other.

[Southpaw191679666239]

How is this a "transaction" ? :P

[UK1679666180]

It definitely isn't out of the reach to forecast an OPS around .800. If you can get a .290/.340/.460 out of your likely #7 hitter making the League minimum, you'll have two things probably. 1)A strong line-up 2)A great bargain.

 

Of course, you could have a manager who has shown an inability to put together a correct batting order. :)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Here's an earlier projictopn from Zips......

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5

 

I would be ok with that line from Murton. It's not great, but a 280+ average with a 350 OBP would be satisfactory.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's an earlier projictopn from Zips......

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5

 

I would be ok with that line from Murton. It's not great, but a 280+ average with a 350 OBP would be satisfactory.

 

Yeah, he's definitely a keeper !! :wink:

 

Even if I don't know how to spell projection, eh?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Here's an earlier projictopn from Zips......

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5

 

I would be ok with that line from Murton. It's not great, but a 280+ average with a 350 OBP would be satisfactory.

 

Yeah, he's definitely a keeper !! :wink:

 

Even if I don't know how to spell projection, eh?

 

Yes, he is. Plus, the fact I have his minor league jersey just adds to my appreciation of Mr. Murton.

[WrigleyField 22]

I stopped playing baseball early in little league so correct me if I'm way off base here.

 

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

 

And for the record, a .280 .350 .430 line would be awesome, anything more is icing on the cake.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I stopped playing baseball early in little league so correct me if I'm way off base here.

 

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

 

And for the record, a .280 .350 .430 line would be awesome, anything more is icing on the cake.

 

To me, a .780 OPS for a corner OF falls short of awesome. Realistic, but nothing special.

[WrigleyField 22]

I stopped playing baseball early in little league so correct me if I'm way off base here.

 

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

 

And for the record, a .280 .350 .430 line would be awesome, anything more is icing on the cake.

 

To me, a .780 OPS for a corner OF falls short of awesome. Realistic, but nothing special.

 

Eh, maybe my lowered standards are a mixture of the feeling I get when I think about the production we got from the spot last year, the fact that hes a rookie, the fact that he would only be hitting 7 or 8, and the feeling of not wanting to be dissappointed.

 

I guess I was saying mopresore that the .280 .350 line would be great. Some more power would be nice since hes a corner OF I suppose.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

As much as I like Murton and want him to succeed, I think a lot of us are getting too caught up in his 2005 numbers and placing unrealistic expectations on him. Yes, the .321/.386/.521 line looks nice, but should we really count on him repeating it? I'm not so sure.

 

Murton's GB/LD/FB split last season was 76/14/26. That in itself isn't too interesting, though it should be noted that players who hit that many ground balls rarely hit with much power. The really interesting thing is how often each of those batted ball types turned into hits. Here's murton's BA on each of the batted ball types, followed by the 2005 league average:

 

              GB        LD       FB
Murton     0.289     0.929    0.385
Lg. Avg.   0.257     0.717    0.237

More of Murton's GB than you'd expect found holes, almost none of his LD were right at a defender, and an astonishing number of his fly balls fell for hits. (Mostly due to the fact that over 25% of them landed in the seats.) If Murton's balls had fallen for hits at a rate similar to the league average he'd have only hit .257 last year, and his OPS would have been in the .750 range at best.

 

I'm not saying that Murton is a bad player or that he hasn't earned a spot on the 2006 OF, I'm just pointing out that a good portion of last year's success can probably be attributed to a bit of good luck. Unless he starts hitting more line drives and fly balls I think it's a bit foolish to count on him for a .900 OPS just yet.

 

The thing about Murton that suprised me was how man ground ball IF hits he had in the minors and majors.

[Guest]

The thing about Murton that suprised me was how man ground ball IF hits he had in the minors and majors.

Yeah. During his MLB time last season he was scratching out IF hits at about the same rate Pierre was.

[Guest]

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

I'd argue that there such variations are mostly due to luck, though there's probably a bit of luck involved. If and when I find the time I might take a look at how stable those numbers tend to be from year-to-year. The results would give us a better idea of just how much is due skill and how muchis due to luck or other factors.

[Diffusion]

I stopped playing baseball early in little league so correct me if I'm way off base here.

 

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

 

And for the record, a .280 .350 .430 line would be awesome, anything more is icing on the cake.

 

To me, a .780 OPS for a corner OF falls short of awesome. Realistic, but nothing special.

 

Obviously it's below league average production from LF, but he's making way below league average money and has way below league average experience of the majors. You offer me .280/.350/.430 in well over 500 PAs from Murton next year here and now, and I'll snap your hand off, because that is pretty awesome production from a rookie. If he was still eligible for RoY, he'd pretty much have it sown up with that kind of performance.

[Bote McBoteface]

I think if Murton is anywhere near on pace for those numbers by mid-season, and he isn't playing every day than Dusty should be round-house kicked by Waker Texas Ranger.

[imb]

i just hope he keeps getting those crap singles. or figures out how to get hits that arent crap singles.