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Posted
I don't understand the Juan Pierre hate around here.

 

Speed is fine, but he cant steal to save his life, he gets caught 25% of the time.

 

75% is a very solid percentage. To say he can't steal to save his life is absurd.

 

75% is borderline. Not particularly good, but not terrible.

 

How many guys with over 15 SB attempts have a higher percentage? I think you would find he's in the top 15% or so, I don't know exactly. 75% would be above average for guys that do a bit of running.

 

It's better than many others, but the point is it hurts the team to be caught that often, more than it helps to be successful that often.

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Posted (edited)
I don't understand the Juan Pierre hate around here.

 

Speed is fine, but he cant steal to save his life, he gets caught 25% of the time.

 

75% is a very solid percentage. To say he can't steal to save his life is absurd.

 

75% is borderline. Not particularly good, but not terrible.

 

How many guys with over 15 SB attempts have a higher percentage? I think you would find he's in the top 15% or so, I don't know exactly. 75% would be above average for guys that do a bit of running.

 

 

I checked and there were 26 players with 20 or more SB in 2005. 20 of them were at 75% or better. 11 of them were at 80% or better and 5 were at 85% or better. Only 4 were below 75%.

 

The average percentage for all 26 was 79%.

 

Looking at the numbers, IMO you could easily categorize them as follows:

 

85% and up: Excellent

80-84%: Good

75-79%: Average

70-74%: Fair

65-69%: Poor

64 and below: Abysmal

 

Pierre's care average would put him in the fair category.

Edited by XZero77
Posted
he cant steal to save his life, he gets caught 25% of the time.

Isn't that the break-even point of SB effectiveness? I wouldn't call that "can't steal to save his life".

 

I think one of the "experts" on Baseball Tonight said that Pierre started last year with a leg injury which hampered his base stealing.

 

Which is interesting because his percentage was much worse in 2004, at a terrible 65%.

Posted

Juan Pierre had 57 stolen bases last season.

 

The Cubs, as a team, had 65. Derek Lee and Corey Patterson each had 15 apiece.

 

Who really cares what Pierre's percentage is, the guy is finally going to provide speed and a basestealing threat at the top of the order. Outside of the short Kenny Lofton era, when was the last time the Cubs had anything like that on the team?

Posted
Juan Pierre had 57 stolen bases last season.

 

The Cubs, as a team, had 65. Derek Lee and Corey Patterson each had 15 apiece.

 

Who really cares what Pierre's percentage is, the guy is finally going to provide speed and a basestealing threat at the top of the order. Outside of the short Kenny Lofton era, when was the last time the Cubs had anything like that on the team?

 

The percentage is far more important than the number. If you the thrown out too much, then you have cost your team more runs than you created with your successful steals. Pierre is still in the range were his steals are benficial, but not by a whole lot.

Posted
Juan Pierre had 57 stolen bases last season.

 

The Cubs, as a team, had 65. Derek Lee and Corey Patterson each had 15 apiece.

 

Who really cares what Pierre's percentage is, the guy is finally going to provide speed and a basestealing threat at the top of the order. Outside of the short Kenny Lofton era, when was the last time the Cubs had anything like that on the team?

 

I care very much what his percentage is. If he steals 65 bases and gets caught 50 times, then his basestealing "threat" is hurting the team with his running.

Posted

I care very much what his percentage is. If he steals 65 bases and gets caught 50 times, then his basestealing "threat" is hurting the team with his running.

 

Well, I'd agree with that, except that your example is simply ridiculous. He's not going to get caught 50 times, because that's stupid. He got caught stealing 17 times last season. Even if that's a bad percentage, he still outproduced our best base stealer last season by 42.

 

Juan Pierre is the new leadoff hitter, deal with it. He may not be perfect, but he's not terrible, and he's a whole heck of a lot better than anything we trotted out in the leadoff spot last season.

Posted
Don't want Mench anyway, the guys got a big head.

 

 

 

No way of telling how he would fit in the clubhouse.

 

They could always widen the clubhouse door, that way his head could fit through.

Posted
I'm really excited that we got Pierre, and I'm looking forward to seeing him this year! I like the threat he provides when he's on base, with that kind of speed you can definitely get in a pitcher's head - and let's face it....on the cubs, every little bit helps a ton. I'm also gonna like those times we've actually got a runner on 2nd when Walker/Lee/Ramirez come to the plate. I know he's not the greatest defensively, however, I think he's gonna be a nice addition to the club.
Posted

My. How. Things. Change.

 

And it was only yesterday I was getting insulted and lectured because I wanted to trade Corey Patterson. No, wait. That was last June.

 

Sorry, just couldn't help myself. For what it's worth, I'd rather be happy than right. (ie. I would rather have seen Corey succeed)

Posted
Don't want Mench anyway, the guys got a big head.

 

 

 

No way of telling how he would fit in the clubhouse.

 

Not as big as a previous RF that played in Chicago.

 

 

 

Or previous linebacker for the Bears.

Posted

Not to beat a dead horse--bad horse! bad horse!--but while I know there are studies out there on basestealing effectiveness, do they take into consideration the effect on the next batter? For example, say Pierre's on first and the pitcher is concerned. Does he throw a lot of fastballs to the next hitter, not willing to risk throwing a curveball in the dirt?

 

If you look at Luis Castillo's stats from last year--he had 370+ PAs batting second, all or almost all batting behind Pierre. He hit 307/389/381 in that spot. And he hit 365/427/432 with a runner--again, presumably Pierre--on first. That compares pretty well with his overall line of 301/391/374.

 

So yeah, maybe hitting while a basestealer is on first DOES get you better pitches...

Posted
Not to beat a dead horse--bad horse! bad horse!--but while I know there are studies out there on basestealing effectiveness, do they take into consideration the effect on the next batter? For example, say Pierre's on first and the pitcher is concerned. Does he throw a lot of fastballs to the next hitter, not willing to risk throwing a curveball in the dirt?

 

If you look at Luis Castillo's stats from last year--he had 370+ PAs batting second, all or almost all batting behind Pierre. He hit 307/389/381 in that spot. And he hit 365/427/432 with a runner--again, presumably Pierre--on first. That compares pretty well with his overall line of 301/391/374.

 

So yeah, maybe hitting while a basestealer is on first DOES get you better pitches...

 

Look at Castillo and Pierre's numbers since they've been together. When one does well, the other does poorly, and vice versa. Their OPS's are almost a perfect ratio.

Posted
Not to beat a dead horse--bad horse! bad horse!--but while I know there are studies out there on basestealing effectiveness, do they take into consideration the effect on the next batter? For example, say Pierre's on first and the pitcher is concerned. Does he throw a lot of fastballs to the next hitter, not willing to risk throwing a curveball in the dirt?

 

If you look at Luis Castillo's stats from last year--he had 370+ PAs batting second, all or almost all batting behind Pierre. He hit 307/389/381 in that spot. And he hit 365/427/432 with a runner--again, presumably Pierre--on first. That compares pretty well with his overall line of 301/391/374.

 

So yeah, maybe hitting while a basestealer is on first DOES get you better pitches...

 

I am not enomored by the move, but like I said in the thread about his acquisition, people have been pretty absurd in trying to diminish his skills.

 

I remember a year ago when arguments were being made about Walker leading off for the Cubs, some people who are currently bashing the deal were making this point: obp in a leadoff man is most important, but how often the batter reaches second base is critically important as well when it comes to scoring runs.

 

in that respect, you compare how often Pierre is able to reach second base on his own to Wilkerson or Walker, it adds value that Walker and Wilkerson can't necessarily bring. for a rough calculation, I'll use 2b + 3b + HR + SB(x.9).

 

2005 was a down year for Pierre and Wilkerson and an injury year for Walker:

Pierre 85

Wilkerson 67

Walker 41 (in 400 ABs, let's say 61 over 600 ABs)

 

2004 was by far Wilkerson's best year, arguably for Pierre too, and a illogically benched year for Walker

 

Pierre 77

Wilkerson 85 (do have to give a huge edge for all the dingers, but will he ever repeat that? shouldn't the homers he didn't hit in DC have turned into doubles last year? they didn't.)

Walker 38 (about 61 over 600)

 

for some reason I don't see the people that advocate Wilkerson, and bashing Pierre, pointing to the value reaching second on your own has to scoring runs even though many of them spoke of it last year when advocating for Walker for leadoff.

 

I don't like Pierre's stolen base percentage. I think it should be in the 80s to be an effective gamble. last year Pierre attempted 74 stolen bases. to have an 80 percent success rate he would have needed 60 sb. he had 57. three outs (sure, there are probably some pickoffs to work in there.) big deal. I'd much rather have him on second or beyond on his own at the rate he does get there.

 

also, to diminish his skills, everybody is acting like the sole aspect of speed is the stolen base. while wilkerson, and to a lesser extent walker, are both good baserunners, Pierre brings the following more regularly than the Ws:

 

score from second on a single

go from first to third on a single

score from first on a double

score from third on a groundball or flyout

turn dps into fc to first

go from second to third on a groundball up the middle

 

Walker is probably my favorite Cub, and I would love to add Wilkerson, but the lengths people go through to say that they would be every bit the leadoff hitter that Pierre is goes a little far. let's look at the entire picture, not just the additional slg and leave it at that. obp is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter, but Pierre's speed in the leadoff spot will lead to alot of scoring opportunities and avoid alot of outs, that would have been runners stranded and outs if it were Walker and Wilkerson out there.

Posted
Not to beat a dead horse--bad horse! bad horse!--but while I know there are studies out there on basestealing effectiveness, do they take into consideration the effect on the next batter? For example, say Pierre's on first and the pitcher is concerned. Does he throw a lot of fastballs to the next hitter, not willing to risk throwing a curveball in the dirt?

 

If you look at Luis Castillo's stats from last year--he had 370+ PAs batting second, all or almost all batting behind Pierre. He hit 307/389/381 in that spot. And he hit 365/427/432 with a runner--again, presumably Pierre--on first. That compares pretty well with his overall line of 301/391/374.

 

So yeah, maybe hitting while a basestealer is on first DOES get you better pitches...

 

I am not enomored by the move, but like I said in the thread about his acquisition, people have been pretty absurd in trying to diminish his skills.

 

I remember a year ago when arguments were being made about Walker leading off for the Cubs, some people who are currently bashing the deal were making this point: obp in a leadoff man is most important, but how often the batter reaches second base is critically important as well when it comes to scoring runs.

 

in that respect, you compare how often Pierre is able to reach second base on his own to Wilkerson or Walker, it adds value that Walker and Wilkerson can't necessarily bring. for a rough calculation, I'll use 2b + 3b + HR + SB(x.9).

 

2005 was a down year for Pierre and Wilkerson and an injury year for Walker:

Pierre 85

Wilkerson 67

Walker 41 (in 400 ABs, let's say 61 over 600 ABs)

 

2004 was by far Wilkerson's best year, arguably for Pierre too, and a illogically benched year for Walker

 

Pierre 77

Wilkerson 85 (do have to give a huge edge for all the dingers, but will he ever repeat that? shouldn't the homers he didn't hit in DC have turned into doubles last year? they didn't.)

Walker 38 (about 61 over 600)

 

for some reason I don't see the people that advocate Wilkerson, and bashing Pierre, pointing to the value reaching second on your own has to scoring runs even though many of them spoke of it last year when advocating for Walker for leadoff.

 

I don't like Pierre's stolen base percentage. I think it should be in the 80s to be an effective gamble. last year Pierre attempted 74 stolen bases. to have an 80 percent success rate he would have needed 60 sb. he had 57. three outs (sure, there are probably some pickoffs to work in there.) big deal. I'd much rather have him on second or beyond on his own at the rate he does get there.

 

also, to diminish his skills, everybody is acting like the sole aspect of speed is the stolen base. while wilkerson, and to a lesser extent walker, are both good baserunners, Pierre brings the following more regularly than the Ws:

 

score from second on a single

go from first to third on a single

score from first on a double

score from third on a groundball or flyout

turn dps into fc to first

go from second to third on a groundball up the middle

 

Walker is probably my favorite Cub, and I would love to add Wilkerson, but the lengths people go through to say that they would be every bit the leadoff hitter that Pierre is goes a little far. let's look at the entire picture, not just the additional slg and leave it at that. obp is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter, but Pierre's speed in the leadoff spot will lead to alot of scoring opportunities and avoid alot of outs, that would have been runners stranded and outs if it were Walker and Wilkerson out there.

 

 

So essentially what your saying in the simpliest form is that, "any time Pierre reaches base, he is automatically in scoring position." Works for me....and I do expect Pierre to get back to his career norms of .305/.355 (and no I am NOT worried or concern about power from Pierre, cause that is not his game)

Posted
Not to beat a dead horse--bad horse! bad horse!--but while I know there are studies out there on basestealing effectiveness, do they take into consideration the effect on the next batter? For example, say Pierre's on first and the pitcher is concerned. Does he throw a lot of fastballs to the next hitter, not willing to risk throwing a curveball in the dirt?

 

If you look at Luis Castillo's stats from last year--he had 370+ PAs batting second, all or almost all batting behind Pierre. He hit 307/389/381 in that spot. And he hit 365/427/432 with a runner--again, presumably Pierre--on first. That compares pretty well with his overall line of 301/391/374.

 

So yeah, maybe hitting while a basestealer is on first DOES get you better pitches...

 

I am not enomored by the move, but like I said in the thread about his acquisition, people have been pretty absurd in trying to diminish his skills.

 

I remember a year ago when arguments were being made about Walker leading off for the Cubs, some people who are currently bashing the deal were making this point: obp in a leadoff man is most important, but how often the batter reaches second base is critically important as well when it comes to scoring runs.

 

in that respect, you compare how often Pierre is able to reach second base on his own to Wilkerson or Walker, it adds value that Walker and Wilkerson can't necessarily bring. for a rough calculation, I'll use 2b + 3b + HR + SB(x.9).

 

2005 was a down year for Pierre and Wilkerson and an injury year for Walker:

Pierre 85

Wilkerson 67

Walker 41 (in 400 ABs, let's say 61 over 600 ABs)

 

2004 was by far Wilkerson's best year, arguably for Pierre too, and a illogically benched year for Walker

 

Pierre 77

Wilkerson 85 (do have to give a huge edge for all the dingers, but will he ever repeat that? shouldn't the homers he didn't hit in DC have turned into doubles last year? they didn't.)

Walker 38 (about 61 over 600)

 

for some reason I don't see the people that advocate Wilkerson, and bashing Pierre, pointing to the value reaching second on your own has to scoring runs even though many of them spoke of it last year when advocating for Walker for leadoff.

 

I don't like Pierre's stolen base percentage. I think it should be in the 80s to be an effective gamble. last year Pierre attempted 74 stolen bases. to have an 80 percent success rate he would have needed 60 sb. he had 57. three outs (sure, there are probably some pickoffs to work in there.) big deal. I'd much rather have him on second or beyond on his own at the rate he does get there.

 

also, to diminish his skills, everybody is acting like the sole aspect of speed is the stolen base. while wilkerson, and to a lesser extent walker, are both good baserunners, Pierre brings the following more regularly than the Ws:

 

score from second on a single

go from first to third on a single

score from first on a double

score from third on a groundball or flyout

turn dps into fc to first

go from second to third on a groundball up the middle

 

Walker is probably my favorite Cub, and I would love to add Wilkerson, but the lengths people go through to say that they would be every bit the leadoff hitter that Pierre is goes a little far. let's look at the entire picture, not just the additional slg and leave it at that. obp is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter, but Pierre's speed in the leadoff spot will lead to alot of scoring opportunities and avoid alot of outs, that would have been runners stranded and outs if it were Walker and Wilkerson out there.

 

So a single and a SB = .9, and a HR = 1? That's skewed in Pierre's favor, the extra bases Wilkerson gets makes him more valuable. Plus Wilkerson gets on base as much as Pierre, if not more often.

 

EDIT: And like Diffusion did so well before, if you're going to add SB to the extra bases, then you have to subtract CS from OBP, at which point Pierre's OBP is very pedestrian.

Posted

 

So a single and a SB = .9, and a HR = 1? That's skewed in Pierre's favor, the extra bases Wilkerson gets makes him more valuable. Plus Wilkerson gets on base as much as Pierre, if not more often.

 

EDIT: And like Diffusion did so well before, if you're going to add SB to the extra bases, then you have to subtract CS from OBP, at which point Pierre's OBP is very pedestrian.

 

I mulitplied stolen bases time .9 to account for attempted steals of third.

 

I don't suppose Diffusion worked in the number of outs prevented and the scoring opportunities made available by the things I listed above though did he? or are those things not valuable in scoring runs?

 

I have no math or statistical accumen to determine these things, but consider....

 

it's not hard to imagine Pierre's speed would prevent 15-20 outs a year by turning double plays into fielder's choices when Wilkerson would have been a part of a double play. that's worth, what, about 20-25 points in obp?

 

as for the dingers that Wilkerson hits...let's say he hits 20 more. assume Pierre reaches second on his own 25-30 times more in a year. 10-15 times Pierre will score anyway, so that diminishes the added value of Wilkerson's slg right off. now let's talk about all of the times Pierre will reach second, third and home when Wilkerson would not. what's that worth? 10 runs? easily. 30 runs? quite possible.

 

your points lead me right back to a theme from above, you are completely discounting the various roles that speed plays in scoring runs.

Posted

 

So a single and a SB = .9, and a HR = 1? That's skewed in Pierre's favor, the extra bases Wilkerson gets makes him more valuable. Plus Wilkerson gets on base as much as Pierre, if not more often.

 

EDIT: And like Diffusion did so well before, if you're going to add SB to the extra bases, then you have to subtract CS from OBP, at which point Pierre's OBP is very pedestrian.

 

I mulitplied stolen bases time .9 to account for attempted steals of third.

 

I don't suppose Diffusion worked in the number of outs prevented and the scoring opportunities made available by the things I listed above though did he? or are those things not valuable in scoring runs?

 

I have no math or statistical accumen to determine these things, but consider....

 

it's not hard to imagine Pierre's speed would prevent 15-20 outs a year by turning double plays into fielder's choices when Wilkerson would have been a part of a double play. that's worth, what, about 20-25 points in obp?

 

 

your points lead me right back to a theme from above, you are completely discounting the various roles that speed plays in scoring runs.

 

I really think you're overstating that role. As Diffusion pointed out in another thread, 2/3 of plate appearances in the leadoff role were with no one on base. You claim that 15-20 times more per year Pierre beats out a DP than Wilkerson. Wilkerson has 24 CAREER GIDP. Pierre grounds in to DP's as much if not more often. Plus, since only 33% of PA's come with a man on, and even less with only a runner on first, you're saying that almost 10% of those PA's Pierre saves an out by not GIDP instead of Wilkerson. Overstated.

 

as for the dingers that Wilkerson hits...let's say he hits 20 more. assume Pierre reaches second on his own 25-30 times more in a year. 10-15 times Pierre will score anyway, so that diminishes the added value of Wilkerson's slg right off. now let's talk about all of the times Pierre will reach second, third and home when Wilkerson would not. what's that worth? 10 runs? easily. 30 runs? quite possible.

 

I have no idea what you're talking about in this passage. Wilkerson gets on base more, and he hits for more extra bases. A single and a SB is not as valuable as a double or especially a HR.

Posted

 

So a single and a SB = .9, and a HR = 1? That's skewed in Pierre's favor, the extra bases Wilkerson gets makes him more valuable. Plus Wilkerson gets on base as much as Pierre, if not more often.

 

EDIT: And like Diffusion did so well before, if you're going to add SB to the extra bases, then you have to subtract CS from OBP, at which point Pierre's OBP is very pedestrian.

 

I mulitplied stolen bases time .9 to account for attempted steals of third.

 

A stolen base doesn't advance other baserunners in the same way as a total base does. Therefore it's not as valuable. Lefty thought that maybe a stolen base is worth half a total base. I thought, maybe it's a bit more, I guessed it was worth two thirds of a total base. But I don't really know exactly what it's worth.

 

I don't suppose Diffusion worked in the number of outs prevented and the scoring opportunities made available by the things I listed above though did he? or are those things not valuable in scoring runs?

 

No, they are somewhat valuable, and, no, I didn't work in things like that. What I did do though was add a caveat, that if we absorded basestealing into Pierre's numbers by adding stolen bases times a constant to slugging and subtracting caught stealings from on-base, then we had to consider Pierre an excellent baserunner, whereas Walker quite obviously can't be considered that at all (though he's not bad or anything). This relies on you being able to make a distinction between baserunning and basestealing though.

 

Then I argued that baserunning wasn't worth the difference between them.

 

it's not hard to imagine Pierre's speed would prevent 15-20 outs a year by turning double plays into fielder's choices when Wilkerson would have been a part of a double play. that's worth, what, about 20-25 points in obp?

 

Further to what CPat said...

 

Juan Pierre hit 305 groundballs last year in 719 plate appearances (10 GIDP, career high!)

Brad Wilkerson hit 126 groundballs in 661 plate appearances (6 GIDP, career high!)

 

So you know why Pierre always seems to only just be beating out double plays? Because he all he does is hit so many frigging double play groundballs!

 

Anyway, since Wilkerson hits into less double plays, I think we should hold the extra double plays against Pierre. Another reason not to want him. He kills rallies with his double plays!

 

as for the dingers that Wilkerson hits...let's say he hits 20 more. assume Pierre reaches second on his own 25-30 times more in a year. 10-15 times Pierre will score anyway, so that diminishes the added value of Wilkerson's slg right off. now let's talk about all of the times Pierre will reach second, third and home when Wilkerson would not. what's that worth? 10 runs? easily. 30 runs? quite possible.

 

Whatty what what?

Posted

on the double plays, you guys are both forgetting that being a part of a double play is not solely a factor of hitting into them. how many times a year will Pierre v. Wilkerson force the fielder to take the sure out at first instead of turning a double play when he is the runner on first? that is preventing outs. no two ways about it. as for the number of times this happens, I'll leave it to the stat heads to figure that out.

 

as for the number of DPs hit into, sure, Pierre killed 4 more rallies last year with double plays. how many more rallies than Pierre did Wilkerson kill with his massive amounts of strikeouts? I'm not huge on the productive out, but when the difference in the number of double plays is not vast, ie. 4, but the nuumber of times a baserunner has a chance to advance to a base closer to home, ie 30-40, where do you strike the balance?

 

just another chip in Pierre's favor as far as OBP goes. how more many times a year will Pierre turn a bobble into a reached on an error, whereas the same bobble will be an out for Wilkerson? is that worked into the equation? how about the number of times Pierre turns a pitch getting away into a wp/pb when Wilkerson doesn't move. does Pierre get credit for extra slugging?

 

the point about dingers, and by correlation slugging is this. in my calculation of reaching second base on their own, there is no doubt that Wilkerson reached home on his own more often than Pierre. however, over the course of their careers, Pierre reaches second or beyond on his own at a much greater rate than Wilkerson. you subtract the number of homeruns from the times reaching second on their own, and the gap is even greater. probably on average 30-40 times more per year. that's alot, and that translates to runs. not sure runs like Wilkerson's HRs, but it will translate into alot of rus that Wilkerson never even had the opportunity to score because he was standing on first.

 

the second point is best illustrated by example. if Pierre scores from first on a double, whereas Wilkerson only reaches third on the same double, does Pierre not deserve an additional tally in the total bases column when comparing him to Wilkerson? what about all the other times in a year that Pierre will take a base that Wilkerson could not? considering the myriad of situations in which this takes place, ie the wp/pb example above, how many extra bases a year will this translate into?

 

the point about batting first in the order being taken too far because the one hole batter doesn't always lead off is well taken. however, batting in the one hole means batting behind the eighth and ninth hole, generally the two worst hitters in the lineup. so doesn't that diminish the value of having extra slugging in the one hole? I think this is aptly demonstrated by Wilkerson's paltry RBI numbers when compared to his number of extra base hits. and another point on this, you care that Wilkerson will mover runners along with his extra slugging, but I'm sure will say that the runners moved along by Pierre's outs doesn't matter.

 

 

I've said many times, the problem with sabr is it reaches alot of conclusions without measuring everything or measuring everything accurately. it has become just as dogmatic as traditional baseball scouting and analysis.

Posted
how many times a year will Pierre v. Wilkerson force the fielder to take the sure out at first instead of turning a double play when he is the runner on first?

 

Probably less than 5 and more than 0. In otherwords, an insignificant amount.

Posted
Corey has totally killed his trade value by refusing to play winter ball. The impression he creates is that he sucks and doesn't give a damn. If I were a GM I wouldn't give up anybody good for Corey.

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