Matthew Trueblood

Sure, that’s an interesting alternative. Related to my proposal that they pursue Kirilloff for Bellinger, earlier this month. I don’t know that Wallner helps a lot for the balance of this season, because he can’t presently play first base, but it’s a good option. Where I draw a distinction is that if you get a Wallner (who comes with plenty of risk, short term and long term), that’s pretty much all you get. I’m still envisioning them getting a solid prospect in addition to Garver, in the version I described.

Well, probably not the first thing, though. No one who wants Bellinger is going to trade a productive full-time player for him. You trade for Garver (and this is obviously just one example) because that’s about as good/important a player as any contender is likely to give up for a guy who’s only around for a few months. Otherwise, they’re neutering their own move to improve. Then you take the rest of the value you’re in position to demand in the form of a prospect.

I can offer one gently used Nick Madrigal, and an exciting young arm named Horn.

The most daunting question facing the Cubs for the next week is whether or not they should trade Cody Bellinger. That question is bigger and more complex than whether or not the team is in contention, for various reasons. Still, a deal that netted the team immediate help would be easier to justify and execute. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports On the surface, any trade of Cody Bellinger would seem to signal that the Cubs are letting go of the idea of winning anything in 2023. If they're serious about reaching the postseason, trading a player as productive and as obviously talented as Bellinger seems hilariously misguided. No matter what, though, Bellinger is going to hit free agency when this season ends. That's why the team is even considering trading him. He's not going to sign an extension. The chance of that isn't 1 percent or 0.1 percent. It's not 0.001 percent. It's zero. He might re-sign with the Cubs, eventually, but only after testing the market and determining his full value. That doesn't mean that there's no value in keeping him now, from the perspective of wanting him around for the long run. Trading a player makes it less likely that they will be back the following year; the only thing that varies is the magnitude of that effect. In Bellinger's case, especially, holding onto him would confer an advantage on the Cubs, because they'd be able to issue him the qualifying offer, making signing him more expensive (however slightly) to everyone else than to them. So, if the Cubs are going to trade Bellinger, it needs to be because they get more in exchange than the prospect value of the draft pick they'd get if they lost him via free agency. The assumption has been that it also needs to be because they're out of the fight for the playoffs, but is there a version of a Bellinger deal that would allow them to compete even after his departure? To answer that question, start with this information: Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .282/.361/.507 at Double-A Tennessee. Since the All-Star break, in an admittedly minuscule sample, he's hitting .367/.424/.767, with seven extra-base hits, three walks, and just four strikeouts in 33 plate appearances. I'm generally against rushing prospects at all, and there's little doubt that Crow-Armstrong has more to learn in the minors, but that's rather tempting. Say, then, that the Cubs found the right fit for Bellinger in Texas. With Corey Seager on the injured list, the AL West-leading Rangers are down a key left-handed bat, and they're regularly starting Travis Jankowski in left field. If Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins could get the Rangers to include Mitch Garver in the return for Bellinger (as a throw-in, with the Cubs getting a quality prospect, too), the Cubs would have dealt Bellinger and added a useful right-handed bat at the same time. That's a need for the current Cubs roster, and into the breach left by trading Bellinger, the team could then plug Crow-Armstrong. This would be a high-risk maneuver. Getting back a piece like Garver would dramatically decrease the prospect value the Cubs could get for Bellinger, and Crow-Armstrong might not hit, which would leave the team damaged in both the short and the long term. Given the team's stuck-in-the-middle status, though, this move might also maximize their upside. They could get (a little) better in the long run, and they'd give themselves a chance to be a more functional, productive roster in the short term. They'd be improving their defense, even over Bellinger's fine glove work in center field, and they'd have a lineup of similar overall quality, with one fewer dynamic power hitter but one more lefty masher and one more true speedster. Being caught in the new purgatory created by MLB's bloated postseason format is not an enviable position. One way or another, the Cubs face some dilemmas this week. A Bellinger trade that both bolsters the farm system and preserves the potential for the team to chase down one of those playoff spots over the final two months could be the best way to thread this narrow-eyed needle. View full article

As we continue to ponder whether the Cubs should become buyers or sellers over the next week, it's important to identify the glaring needs for the team, should they lean toward buying. After all, while the team earned the right to be talked about as contenders for a few more days after their strong finish to the recent home stand, we know they're not good enough to win the NL Central without some reinforcements. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports Even in the process of winning five of their last six, the Cubs showed the vulnerability of their bullpen. Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. look much less reliable lately than they did a month ago, and the underbelly of that relief corps has always been a problem. Since it became clear that Brandon Hughes was compromised by his balky knee, it's been especially urgent that they find a lefty to get important outs in middle relief. Here, then, are three guys who could fit that role, and in whom the Cubs should have interest between now and next Tuesday. Brent Suter, LHP, Rockies The famously soft-tossing Suter is not going to rack up strikeouts, but he's posted a dazzling 2.62 ERA even while calling Coors Field home. He has one of the league's most deceptive deliveries; excellent extension that makes his velocity play up toward average; a great changeup that misses bats against righties; and a new blend of four-seam fastballs and sinkers that seems to have fully neutralized hitters. His opponents' average exit velocity is the lowest in baseball and of his career, south of 84 miles per hour. He can move his four-seamer around the zone according to the handedness of the opposing hitter and the pitches he's trying to set up, and his sinker's action is surprisingly nasty. A free agent at the end of this year, Suter should be relatively easy to acquire, though his shiny numbers will draw multiple suitors. Reports are that the Rockies do expect to trade him. Matt Moore, LHP, Angels If the Angels scuffle on the road trip on which they've embarked for this week, they'll end up needing to sell pieces at the deadline, however strongly they might prefer to cleave to contention while they still have Shohei Ohtani. Moore would be an attractive trade chip, in that scenario. Since converting to the bullpen for good at the start of 2022, he's run an ERA around 2.00, striking out over 25 percent of opponents and inducing a good amount of weak contact. This version of Moore throws about 94, with good life on the fastball. His changeup and curveball both miss bats. His command isn't what one might wish it were, but he's still a solid setup option from the port side. Aaron Bummer, LHP, White Sox It's a good time to buy low on Bummer. His ERA for the year is 6.82. That doesn't come close to matching his skills or even his actual performance, though. He's not a relief ace, but he'll strike out batters at a high rate and get lots of ground balls with his famously heavy sinker. Bummer walks too many batters, but he'd be useful as a middle reliever who can induce a key double play or come up with a clutch strikeout against an imposing lefty batter. None of these guys should cost the Cubs a high-end prospect, but Bummer could come closest, because he's under team control for 2024. The right to control a non-elite reliever for one extra season isn't all that valuable, so if the White Sox set a high price on Bummer because of that status, the Cubs need to move on. If they can obtain him at a price that reflects his uneven results, though, it could be a great way to balance and deepen the bullpen. View full article

For a month or so, the 2023 Pirates had us fooled. They stayed in first place about that long, and they hung around on the periphery of the NL Central race for most of May. Since then, it's been a true downward spiral, and as a result, Pittsburgh is a seller again at this year's trade deadline. Intriguingly, according to both Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal, the team is open to trading both elite closer David Bednar and All-Star starter Mitch Keller. The fit here is, obviously, awkward and unlikely. The Pirates will command high prices to actually trade either of the two, with Bednar under team control for three seasons beyond this one and Keller still controllable for two. It's only fair that the Cubs will flinch at the notion of giving up sufficient young talent to pry them away, knowing those players could be playing in Pittsburgh for several more years. For their part, the Pirates probably don't want either the real disadvantage or the fan blowback that would come with trading a key piece to a division rival who might use them to stay ahead of Pittsburgh as that team tries to turn the corner and return to contention. Still, it's worth dreaming on a little bit. Bednar, 28, is one of the half-dozen best relievers in baseball. He's consistently fanned over 30 percent of opponents over the last three seasons, and this year, he's adding plus command to his resume, walking fewer batters and making fewer mistakes over the heart of the plate. He'd be the anchor of the bullpen for years to come, and a significant boost for the very thin group the Cubs have here in 2023. Keller took longer to reach a high level of performance, with a couple of false starts, but he's enjoyed a bat-missing breakout in 2023 and his team control could make him a very appealing bridge from the Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman Era to the Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris Era. Intradivisional dynamics might nix these targets, but they're the kind of players the Cubs do need to consider as they seek creative solutions to their medium-term problems. View full rumor

Mastro, Mancini, and Wisdom in right! Yes, they’ve done some wild horsefeathers that way. The difference is that I think they felt they had no choice in those situations, but they *are* fairly comfortable with Wisdom, Mastro, and Madrigal as defensive 3B even while still trying to contend. Again, I’m with you. I just see a distinction they might be drawing there, between being cornered and proactively choosing a risky alignment.

In the latest episode of the weirdest Cubs podcast on the web, we gain a sponsor (kind of) but lose (most of) our hope. It's live, it's thrilling, and it's very much a rebuild. Check it out. Image courtesy of Matt Trueblood via Spotify for Podcasters This is the long-awaited special episode, recorded from the unofficial podcast headquarters in bucolic Homewood, Ill. It's a late-nighter, and it shows. Let's get weird. Together in one room for the first time in the podcast's short history, the four co-hosts discuss whether Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Cody Bellinger, and other Cubs should be traded before next week's MLB trade deadline; bemoan the frustrating Thursday night loss they attended together; and try to widen the lens to take better stock of the long-term position of the organization. Within that are questions of who is to blame for the team's disparity between talent level and record; the relative merits of various minor-league replacements for Patrick Wisdom or Julian Merryweather; and the best players to wear the number 39 in Cubs history. It's a bit contentious, a bit bizarre, and very much a circuitous conversation. We had fun, though, and so can you. View full article

Mmm. Except the Cubs didn't do that until 2022, when they were bad and knew they would be bad and the focus was solely on that kind of development project. They won't (and I think shouldn't) do the same as they did with Happ unless or until they fall out of contention, I would guess. I do agree that that's what you'd need to find out about Morel once and for all, and you need the data that that stability would generate about his offense, too. I'm just not sure they feel like they're in a position to take the risk that comes with it at the moment. Much could change in a week, though.

Depends on a *lot* of things, right? I think it’s clear that the Cubs have deep and well-founded reservations about Morel’s defense at third. Candelario, by contrast, is more or less reliable there, though without plus range. Offensively, he’s way, way more of a sure thing, but we’ve seen Morel’s upside and it’s tantalizing. I do think it’s telling that even now that Swanson is back, the default seems to be putting Morel at DH and using Wisdom or Mastrobuoni at 3B. We don’t have to agree with them, but if either the FO or the coaching staff simply don’t trust Morel at third, then he’s not a solution or an option at that position.

Oh for sure. To be clear, if it’s Herz, that’s as a secondary piece in a package of three guys, probably, but yeah. This is the benefit of a deep farm system. The Cubs can better part with that crop of guys than many teams can.

In finishing a must-win homestand 6-4, the Cubs gained little clarity about next week's MLB trade deadline. That they avoided becoming outright sellers constitutes that win they needed, though, and it gives us cause to talk about what acquiring a valuable rental bat would look like. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Cody Bellinger hit so well over the last week and a half that he has simultaneously cemented himself as the best impending free-agent hitter who could be traded at this deadline, and decreased the likelihood that he actually will be. If we nix Bellinger (at least for the purposes of this discussion) as a trade candidate, then the guy who emerges as the top rental bat on the market is former Cub (and especially Cubs prospect) Jeimer Candelario. Non-tendered by the Tigers after a miserable 2022, Candelario has regained the form he showed in 2021 this year with the Nationals. The Cubs saw just how dangerous he can be last week. He only collected three hits in 14 plate appearances during Washington's stop at Wrigley Field, but two of them left the park. On the year, he's hitting .254/.333/.474, with 27 doubles, two triples, and 15 home runs. In over 800 plate appearances in 2020-21, he batted .278/.356/.458, so this isn't a new level for him. It's just a return to what he's demonstrated the ability to do in the past. Candelario's defense is always a bit of a Rorschach test. He gives you things to like and things to dislike, and even defensive metrics tend to give mixed or contradictory reports on him. In that way, he's not dissimilar from the Cubs' incumbents at the hot corner, Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel. By and large, though, he's looked better this year than in the last two, and he wouldn't in any way compromise the defensive phalanx the Cubs have strived to create. Nor is it hard to see how Candelario would fit into the lineup. He's been consistently better as a left-handed batter, against right-handed pitchers, but he's not bootless against lefties, either. The batting orders in the wake of a trade for Candelario could shake out something like this: vs. RHP vs. LHP 1 Tauchman - DH Hoerner - 2B 2 Happ - LF Suzuki - RF 3 Candelario - 3B Candelario - 3B 4 Bellinger - CF Swanson - SS 5 Suzuki - RF Bellinger - CF 6 Swanson - SS Happ - LF 7 Mervis - 1B Gomes - C 8 Gomes - C Wisdom - DH 9 Hoerner - 2B Mancini - 1B The improvement in each of those, relative to the team's current options, is obvious and immense. Candelario isn't the transformational masher Cubs fans would most love to see the team find somewhere, but he's a superb lengthener of a lineup like this one. He'd give the Cubs the occasional home run, but also fit well into their perpetual plan to draw walks, hit doubles, and apply pressure by stringing together hits. Of course, even after that encouraging weekend against the lowly Cardinals, it feels a bit odd to talk about the team landing a player who would be a true rental. Candelario will hit free agency after this season, and the Cubs would probably have to give the Nationals something commensurate with the value of a compensatory draft pick, because (like Bellinger) he's played his way from being cut by one team to being worthy of a qualifying offer from another one in less than a year. That's just to enter the bidding; the final price would have to beat the offers likely to come in from a handful of other contenders in need of an offensive boost. Part of the price for Candelario could be one of the third basemen the Cubs have already used this year: Wisdom, Madrigal, or Morel. If it were the latter, surely, that would be all Chicago would be willing to give up, and even it would feel awfully rich. Morel's lack of a clear defensive home and his streakiness during long exchanges of adjustment with MLB pitchers make him risky to keep, but his power, speed, and overall upside make him risky to trade, especially for a short-term asset. He has five years of team control left after 2023, and won't reach arbitration eligibility until 2026 because of the Cubs' choice to keep him in Iowa for almost six weeks to start this year. Wisdom, believe it or not, has some trade value, because he'll still have three years of team control (albeit as an over-30, arbitration-eligible slugger whose homers might inflate his earning power past his usefulness) left when this season ends. So might Madrigal, despite his ups and downs and even despite his relentless battles with injuries. Neither could carry a trade for Candelario on their own, though. The Cubs do have a laundry list of players who make sense in a deal like this one, though. This winter, they face tough decisions about whether to add several players to their 40-man roster, or expose them to the Rule 5 Draft. These include Triple-A hitters Jake Slaughter, Luis Vazquez, and Yonathan Perlaza, and Double-A arms DJ Herz, Kohl Franklin, Richard Gallardo, Carlos Guzman, Porter Hodge, and Luke Little. The Nationals would have to add any of those guys (or Michael Arias, whom I mentioned in yesterday's post about trading with the woebegone Royals for starter Brady Singer) to their roster this winter, too, of course, but they have much more deadweight and space on their projected roster to fit them. The Cubs could pair one of their controllable big-league pieces with one of those guys to put together a competitive offer, or go a step further and include B.J. Murray--a kind of mini-Candelario, who seems to be passing the Double-A test with flying colors in his second full pro season and who looks like an imminently useful big-league hitter. Murray doesn't need to be added to the 40-man until after next season, and would be an appealing trade chip for a Washington team trying to assemble a more competitive roster in the medium term. That Candelario is only a short-term addition will hold his price down, even as teams vie for the right to land him. The Cubs wouldn't need to part with any of their top-tier talent to get him. Giving up Morel would really sting, but a package of Wisdom, Hodge, and Murray has some chance of getting the deal done. Again, it's bizarre to talk about trading for a rental player while trade rumors still swirl around Stroman, Bellinger, and others, but the Cubs earned themselves and their fans the right to think about it for (at least) a couple more days. View full article

Obviously, the return for him would be basically zilch. BUT: Carson Kelly since the start of 2022: .207/.271/.321. Tucker Barnhart since the start of 2022: .215/.287/.265. And he hits lefty! They genuinely might be helped by having him, however incrementally.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are reeling, and they took another painful hit Sunday. Rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno, the prized acquisition of their offseason and a key part of their strong first half, landed on the 10-day injured list with shoulder inflammation. Moreno has been playing through that problem for a while now, and his diminished performance has been one small part of the team's major slide throughout this month. The D'Backs could be an interesting fit for a trade involving Yan Gomes, or even one for Tucker Barnhart, depending on Moreno's prognosis. Because it's been a while since they were relevant in the Dodgers-dominated NL West, Arizona will try to make the most of the opportunity this season presents. They feel a bit like the 2015 Cubs: loaded with talent, but skidding the wrong direction at the deadline and not inclined to sell the farm in order to get this particular club over the top. They're just entering what they hope will be a years-long winning window. However, GM Mike Hazen did say they would be aggressive in their search for upgrades, and they've been creative traders in the past. Zac Gallen came to Arizona in a challenge trade for Jazz Chisholm, Jr. The deal that brought Moreno to the desert this winter in exchange for Daulton Varsho was similarly bold and (in an era of boring, buyer/seller, value-focused dealing) unusual. Could that mean that this emergent need creates an opening for packaging Gomes with a pitcher like Michael Fulmer or Marcus Stroman to give the Diamondbacks help on two fronts, in exchange for one of the more exciting prospects in their strong system? I already wrote about what trading Fulmer to Arizona could look like last week, and I also covered the possibility of packaging Stroman and Gomes. This one bears watching, even as the Cubs walk the line between buying and selling. View full rumor

The runs allowed would, in a vacuum, suggest that the Cubs' pitching plan didn't work well against the Cardinals Saturday. Considering how bad a matchup the Cardinals are for Drew Smyly and the Cubs bullpen, though, it was par for the course. Next time through the rotation, it's time to try something more like a real solution. Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports It's been a steady but inexorable tumble for Drew Smyly, since his strong start to the season. His seasonal ERA is up to 4.69, but that doesn't even begin to tell the full tale of his woes. Over his last 10 appearances, he's thrown 48 1/3 innings, with an ERA of 7.08. Opposing hitters are hitting .327/.397/.599, When Smyly takes the mound, the whole league is hitting like likely NL MVP Ronald Acuna, Jr. Smyly still flashes the ability to get outs. He's not completely washed up. In fact, he has 12 strikeouts and just two walks over his last two appearances. He's just not able to get through entire outings without breaking down a bit and getting hit hard. Whether the Cubs can stay in contention for the balance of this month or not, then, it's time to demote Smyly to the bullpen. By using Michael Fulmer for the first full turn through the St. Louis order Saturday, the Cubs signaled that they're aware of that fact--even if the primary motivation for doing it was really the Cardinals' uniquely deep and platoon-capable bench, which gave David Ross trouble Saturday in a game started by fellow southpaw Justin Steele. Just as the Cubs finished their rain-disrupted win at Wrigley, Hayden Wesneski took the mound in Iowa. He twirled five scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and striking out eight, without walking a batter. For Wesneski, it was the next in a line of starts in which he's been as good as Smyly has been bad. Going all the way back to when he was first optioned to Triple A in mid-May, Wesneski now has 12 appearances between that level and the big leagues. Over that span, he's fired 41 1/3 innings, and he's running a 2.83 ERA. He's fanned 49 batters and walked 14, and opponents are hitting .182/.261/.338. He's had some good batted-ball luck, but when he's right, he manages contact quality well, anyway. Right now, he's very much right. One major adjustment for Wesneski has been turning into primarily a four-seam fastball guy, rather than the primarily sinker guy he was last year and to open this season. He's still utilizing slightly different release points for his four-seamer and cutter than for his sinker, sweeping slider, and changeup, but he's found better ways to be deceptive and effective while doing so. For one thing, he's slid back toward the first-base side of the rubber, after trending toward the third-base side early this year. For another, he's getting more comfortable shaping his slider, using it more as a true sweeper against righties and getting more depth on it against lefties. Perhaps most helpfully, though, Wesneski is starting to use the top of the strike zone with that four-seamer. Because his heater lacks elite rise, he'd been very reluctant to do that in the past, but the result was that hitters could cover his whole arsenal without having to commit to one offering or another. He's creating better contrast with better location now, and it's made a huge difference. Regardless of whether the rest of the Cubs' season needs to be spent evaluating players for the future or whether they become surprising contenders with another surge through the deadline, Wesneski is the right man for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. The team won't need to get cute or creative every fifth day. They just need to make Smyly the lefty reliever missing from their bullpen, and promote Wesneski back to the majors. View full article

And if the project didn’t take, Singer would be a potentially killer reliever, too, with that two-pitch mix and the possibility of his stuff playing up in shorter bursts. A nice fallback plan if you invest in him.

The velocity is a limiting factor for him, no doubt. Worth noting. I think you probably unlock an extra tick if you get him throwing a four-seamer, but that’s speculative. I think I agree with your note about the prospects who’d be involved, too. It’s tough. I didn’t want to list off the entire Tennessee rotation, and I didn’t dig into position players, but yeah, guys like Herz, Hodge, McGeary could just as easily be parts of the discussion.