A Trade a Day: Ok, Let's Talk About Jeimer Candelario

If he can be had shopping from the DJ Herz level of prospect,  then sure, why not?

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If he can be had shopping from the DJ Herz level of prospect,  then sure, why not?

Oh for sure. To be clear, if it’s Herz, that’s as a secondary piece in a package of three guys, probably, but yeah. This is the benefit of a deep farm system. The Cubs can better part with that crop of guys than many teams can.

58 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If he can be had shopping from the DJ Herz level of prospect,  then sure, why not?

Wouldn’t Morel be the better option? Not that we don’t need an upgrade at 3rd but if Candelerio is that option, I’d rather just stick with Morel. 

I only think a move of this nature makes sense if some uncommon things happen in the next week to raise playoff odds to closer to a coin flip.  There are other 'buy' moves that could make sense even if that uncommon thing doesn't happen, but with Candelario's ceiling only being so high, the range of outcomes has too many instances where Candelario is similar/worse than the alternatives, who are not currently struggling(Cubs 3B have a 150 wRC+ in July).  Ironically it's not so different than the situation that shipped Candelario out of the Cubs org, though at least in that case the Cubs' playoff chances were much different.

I'm very tepid on a Candelario acquisition.  I don't believe in his glove at 3b; he's a career -16 DRS at 3b (granted a lot of this is the 2018 season) but overall, he's usually bad...his current +3 is the only season he's ever played this much 3b and been a positive (his only other positive was a +1 in 2019 in part time duty).  This goes with a pretty poor arm; 24% arm strength.  His wRC+ is good on the season, but his baseball savant data isn't very pretty.  He's 34% in average exit velocity, 42% barrel%, 44% chase rate, 35% hard hit...it's not the hit profile of someone you want to believe in heading forward.  He's also pretty one dimensional at the plate; he crushes fastballs and does nothing else.  

As a primarily platoon bat acquired to play some 1b/DH, you can sell me on a cheap trade (I.E. in the Dan Vogelbach mold last deadline).  But outside of that, Candelario doesn't fill me with much confidence as a 3b moving forward.  He's more likely to be bad at 3b than be good, and I'm not sure the baseball savant batted ball profile screams someone who's going to outhit being a negative fielder.

None of this is to suggest we shouldn't look to improve the 3b position in general, as our current 3b group is Patrick Wisdom (who I frankly don't believe belongs on an MLB roster trying to win), Nick Madrigal (who's surprised at his level at 3b but I don't think has the bat for position) and Christopher Morel (who needs to change his throwing angle to really be an option).  I'm just not much of a believer in Candelario.

25 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Wouldn’t Morel be the better option? Not that we don’t need an upgrade at 3rd but if Candelerio is that option, I’d rather just stick with Morel. 

I totally agree - I would like to see us put Morel at third and leave him there.  By playing him so many different positions in the past he has never learned any well, in fact he has been below average defensively at all of them.  he has shown some improvement at second because he's played there a good bit lately.  Now with Dansby back/Nico to second that will no longer be an option anymore so maybe the same extended exposure at third does the same for him.   I think his cieling is higher than Candelario's. 

1 hour ago, The20thK said:

Wouldn’t Morel be the better option? Not that we don’t need an upgrade at 3rd but if Candelerio is that option, I’d rather just stick with Morel. 

Depends on a *lot* of things, right? I think it’s clear that the Cubs have deep and well-founded reservations about Morel’s defense at third. Candelario, by contrast, is more or less reliable there, though without plus range. Offensively, he’s way, way more of a sure thing, but we’ve seen Morel’s upside and it’s tantalizing. I do think it’s telling that even now that Swanson is back, the default seems to be putting Morel at DH and using Wisdom or Mastrobuoni at 3B. We don’t have to agree with them, but if either the FO or the coaching staff simply don’t trust Morel at third, then he’s not a solution or an option at that position.

1 hour ago, Matt Trueblood said:

Depends on a *lot* of things, right? I think it’s clear that the Cubs have deep and well-founded reservations about Morel’s defense at third. Candelario, by contrast, is more or less reliable there, though without plus range. 

Oh, I agree - the Cubs definitely have reservations about Morel defensively.  My perception is that Morel is very coachable and a very hard worker.  Maybe I am wrong on that.  But if I'm right, kinda do like you did with Happ -  who was pretty poor defensively everywhere they put him, then they left him at one position and he improved dramatically.   Put him at third, leave him at third, work with him at third. 

10 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Oh, I agree - the Cubs definitely have reservations about Morel defensively.  My perception is that Morel is very coachable and a very hard worker.  Maybe I am wrong on that.  But if I'm right, kinda do like you did with Happ -  who was pretty poor defensively everywhere they put him, then they left him at one position and he improved dramatically.   Put him at third, leave him at third, work with him at third. 

 

Mmm. Except the Cubs didn't do that until 2022, when they were bad and knew they would be bad and the focus was solely on that kind of development project. They won't (and I think shouldn't) do the same as they did with Happ unless or until they fall out of contention, I would guess. I do agree that that's what you'd need to find out about Morel once and for all, and you need the data that that stability would generate about his offense, too. I'm just not sure they feel like they're in a position to take the risk that comes with it at the moment. Much could change in a week, though.

Give the 3B job to Morel. 
 

offseason

1. extend Bellinger

2. sign Chapman to play 3rd

3. sign Urias.

that’s a 90 win team at the start of ST. 

Depending on the price i wouldn't mind it.  Pretty sure Bellinger's days here are limited and also Stroman....  I'm hoping for a good package for both of them.   And we will have a very good shot at resigning Stroman. 

I'm kind of hoping the Cubs end up being both Buyers and sellers this week. 

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Give the 3B job to Morel. 
 

offseason

1. extend Bellinger

2. sign Chapman to play 3rd

3. sign Urias.

that’s a 90 win team at the start of ST. 

How so? Bellinger replaces Bellinger so no change. Urias hasn't been very good so its unlikely he gives the Cubs what Stroman has, so we'll be generous and call that neutral. Chapman would be an upgrade, but Chapman alone isn't take this team from 78-80 wins to 90. Also, you have Morel and Chapman playing 3B.

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Give the 3B job to Morel. 
 

offseason

1. extend Bellinger

2. sign Chapman to play 3rd

3. sign Urias.

that’s a 90 win team at the start of ST. 

I think it's an improved roster, but I would say it's not a 90 win team.  The current roster is really not that great; it's a team I think that borders on .500 capability, but needs variance to truly get above it (I know the RD is really high, but I think it's a bit artificially inflated for the talent level).  Urias and Stroman is a push, extending Bellinger is a push, so the improvement would thus be Matt Chapman, and I think Chapman' good but he's not 8 win good.  I think that gets the team around 85-86 wins with some positive variance.

20 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Give the 3B job to Morel. 
 

offseason

1. extend Bellinger

2. sign Chapman to play 3rd

3. sign Urias.

that’s a 90 win team at the start of ST. 

I would flip the heck out if the Cubs only shopped in the second tier of FA with tons of cap space, two CY caliber power SPs (Ohtani and Yamamoto), and the best LHH on the planet available 

I still really like the idea of a light sell with the ability to maybe add if its not too cost prohibitive.  The Cubs have a crapload of prospect depth and are going to have 40 man issues at some point.  I'm not saying lets just toss one carelessly at a rental during a season where we can barely be considered contenders, but we have that flexibility.

That said, I'm not sure where you can sell without torpedoing whatever small chances you have of competing.  The Cubs definitely don't have the starting depth to trade Stroman and still compete unless Wesneski pitches like he did down the stretch in 2022.  The Cubs pen is already weak and thin as it is, trading a pen guy to a contender will further hamper them.  I don't see how trading a guy who is projected to finish with 4-5 wins like Bellinger be a good thing for their playoff chances.

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I would flip the heck out if the Cubs only shopped in the second tier of FA with tons of cap space, two CY caliber power SPs (Ohtani and Yamamoto), and the best LHH on the planet available 

Setting aside Ohtani since he'll be a very unique situation and basically in a tier of his own, he has the Cubs signing/retaining like 3 of the Top 5-7 FA in this class, and probably the 2 best position players.

I've only caught a few games lately in which I have actually been able to watch each pitch, and I'm pretty sure Morel had an error in each of them. Each time he took his eye off the ball right before it reached his glove. Stupid errors. Little league horsefeathers. Totally preventable. But you wonder if he's consistently doing this horsefeathers at 23 years old still, how realistic is the hope that he actually stops. 

These are the types of errors that make you really question his viability. His power rage to start the season has really propped up his overall numbers. It would be great if he at least found his power again.

I'm really interested in seeing how they navigate the 40 man issues that are coming. That is a lot of intriguing talent, feels like several names would get chosen.

2 hours ago, Matt Trueblood said:

Mmm. Except the Cubs didn't do that until 2022, when they were bad and knew they would be bad and the focus was solely on that kind of development project. They won't (and I think shouldn't) do the same as they did with Happ unless or until they fall out of contention, I would guess. I do agree that that's what you'd need to find out about Morel once and for all, and you need the data that that stability would generate about his offense, too. I'm just not sure they feel like they're in a position to take the risk that comes with it at the moment. Much could change in a week, though.

2 hours ago, Matt Trueblood said:

Mmm. Except the Cubs didn't do that until 2022, when they were bad and knew they would be bad and the focus was solely on that kind of development project. They won't (and I think shouldn't) do the same as they did with Happ unless or until they fall out of contention, I would guess. 

It's not like they've never played him at third, this year....they have.

Hell, they played him in left in Minute Made Park and cost us a frickin game.  

I understand your point - I do, but if that's the reason they won't because it's too risky...well - how many games this year have we risked games playing not only Morel out of position, but I can go on for a while.  We've been risking games at first base practically all year. 

1 minute ago, CubUgly said:

It's not like they've never played him at third, this year....they have.

Hell, they played him in left in Minute Made Park and cost us a frickin game.  

I understand your point - I do, but if that's the reason they won't because it's too risky...well - how many games this year have we risked games playing not only Morel out of position, but I can go on for a while.  We've been risking games at first base practically all year. 

Mastro, Mancini, and Wisdom in right! Yes, they’ve done some wild horsefeathers that way. The difference is that I think they felt they had no choice in those situations, but they *are* fairly comfortable with Wisdom, Mastro, and Madrigal as defensive 3B even while still trying to contend. Again, I’m with you. I just see a distinction they might be drawing there, between being cornered and proactively choosing a risky alignment. 

What's weird to me is that Morel had a really good reputation at 3B in the minors. 

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

What's weird to me is that Morel had a really good reputation at 3B in the minors. 

Did he have a good reputation or did people speak highly of his ability to not be forced off the position due to physical limitations(e.g. he has a cannon)?  He has 39 errors in 156 MiLB games at 3B, and 3B hasn't been the dominant position he played at a level since South Bend in 2019.

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Did he have a good reputation or did people speak highly of his ability to not be forced off the position due to physical limitations(e.g. he has a cannon)?  He has 39 errors in 156 MiLB games at 3B, and 3B hasn't been the dominant position he played at a level since South Bend in 2019.

iirc, it was along the lines of him having the tools to play it at an extremely high level, making some big-time, highlight-reel plays there during games, and a caveat along the lines of "he just needs reps there to be more consistent".

I actually just came here to say: Christopher Morel's scouting report in the MiLB would have read something along the lines of: 

Quote

"great glove, questionable hit tool, decent power.  Hyper aggressive promotions causes overall numbers to look worse than he's been but defensive upside gives him a solid floor".

His best tool was his glove.  I'll also say this; MiLB defensive scouting reports are always a bit shaky because there's just no data down there; we're going off eye reports and some of these things just can't be scouted.  Javier Baez was supposedly a weak fielder at SS, Albert Almora was supposedly a plus CF'er, for example.  Doesn't make all scouting reports bad, but defense is easily the most subjective of all.  
 

Not sure if this is a case of "Morel's scouting report just over inflated his defense" or "he's been bussed around so much, MLB-AAA, and positionally, that he's just out of sorts".  

8 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Give the 3B job to Morel. 
 

offseason

1. extend Bellinger

2. sign Chapman to play 3rd

3. sign Urias.

that’s a 90 win team at the start of ST. 

No it’s not…. Stroman is gone…. You basically break even there

bellinger needs traded now….. he’s played 2/3 of his games and thats a good year for him. He’s made of glass and not someone we need extended. Resign for two years? Sure why not. But that’s it!!!