Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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This spring the Chicago Cubs have not been immune to the pitching injury bug that plagues baseball every March. Thankfully to this point they have not been among the teams hardest hit. Despite that, reporting tonight out of The Athletic indicates that Jed Hoyer is still active on the market for starting pitching: It's not totally clear how much of this is laying groundwork in case an injury arises versus how much the team is intent to add a starter even as things currently stand. The Athletic also reports that the team had an offer out to Andrew Heaney before he signed with Pittsburgh, though he theoretically could have been a fit in the bullpen as well. NorthsideBaseball's own Matthew Trueblood also reported last month that Hoyer was still talking with the Padres hoping to land Dylan Cease, so bigger game may be on the table if it's available. -
This spring the Chicago Cubs have not been immune to the pitching injury bug that plagues baseball every March. Thankfully to this point they have not been among the teams hardest hit. Despite that, reporting tonight out of The Athletic indicates that Jed Hoyer is still active on the market for starting pitching: It's not totally clear how much of this is laying groundwork in case an injury arises versus how much the team is intent to add a starter even as things currently stand. The Athletic also reports that the team had an offer out to Andrew Heaney before he signed with Pittsburgh, though he theoretically could have been a fit in the bullpen as well. NorthsideBaseball's own Matthew Trueblood also reported last month that Hoyer was still talking with the Padres hoping to land Dylan Cease, so bigger game may be on the table if it's available. View full rumor
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Megan had an update on the pitching too. Basically Taillon/Boyd are going to start the two exhibition games, so they won't be on the 26 man roster against the Dodgers. So the bullpen against the Dodgers seems likely to be the 8 guys we expected coming into camp, Rea for long relief, and then one of those 4 she called out (most likely Keller IMO). Although that's only 12, so Keegan Thompson too?
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2025 MLB Draft Thread
Bertz replied to Outshined_One's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I know you don't even know what you're talking about anymore, but how is writers charging money to read their writing fascism? And I know you're going to go straight to ESPN/Disney but they've been behind a paywall for over a a decade, so explain it to me in terms of mid size shops like Fangraphs/BP/Baseball America. -
Shaw has not had a lot of hard contact this spring but he's worked a lot of deep counts
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I think this is someone really big who didn't normally wear stirrups during a brief foray into stirrups. I'm kind of thinking Schwarber?
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I'm torn because on the one hand this team used 9 SPs last year, and it would have been 10 or 11 if they had anyone left they thought was more viable than Kyle Hendricks. Rea provides some floor above literal replacement level options. On the other hand, how many Ben Brown/Cade Horton/Daniel Palencia/etc. bullets get wasted down at Iowa because Rea's just sort of there and in the way? It's not hard to see the latter outweighing the former. On Brown and Horton specifically though, I think there's some benefit to having them start once a week at Iowa and try to stretch out how long they're in the rotation before they inevitably have to shift to the pen. Both guys are likely capped in the 120-130 innings neighborhood this year. I'd guess from a long term development/durability standpoint 20 starts and 20 relief outings is better than 15 starts and 30 relief outings.
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And overnight Gerrit Cole. This one sounds especially bad.
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That's totally fair on Amaya. I have been reticent to buy in too hard on his second half breakout, but there was nothing especially flukey under the hood there. And to your point he does grade out shockingly well on the bat speed front.
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George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez to the IL today. Guess we're at the point of the spring where the pitching injuries are going to start piling up.
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If I'm reading Spotrac correctly, and that's an open question since I'm not nearly as financially literate with NFL as I am MLB, it's $43M *before* doing any maneuvering.
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We just don't have anyone in the same stratosphere as KB. And to be fair no one currently has a prospect in the same stratosphere as KB. But I think if you lop KB off the top of the 2014 ERA farm this crew is fairly comparable. To your point though this farm is in ROUGH shape below Iowa. There's enough teenage talent at Myrtle that I'm hopeful we have a clear sense of what the next wave looks like by this summer. But South Bend's roster is a bit weak and Tenn's is pretty much a disaster.
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I think too Brasier and Miller fill the same role in the bullpen. So even beyond his effectiveness do we really want two ROOGYs in the pen? On the flip side I saw yesterday that if they option Pearson for a few weeks they get an extra year of control. It's yucky but I'm sure that enters into the calculus.
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Game covered by TV and Statcast today
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Feels very likely Rojas is hurt, especially him not being in that box score above. I'm hoping because it's so quiet it's a sign that it's just bumps and bruises.
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Not a huge surprise but Mooney says that the expectation is that Brad Keller makes the team. Also notes that Ben Brown will be a SP. So combined with the above you'd presume he's going to open the year in Iowa.
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I presume that last night's lineup is the "real" lineup with a little bit of shuffling in the bottom half once Hoerner is back (Hoerner 5th, Shaw 9th?). Counsell is clearly following the Braves/Dodgers playbook of maxing out the power at the top of the order, and I'm here for it. So I think you're right about how a guy like PCA, whose OBP is going to teeter on the edge of the 2's and 3's, shouldn't actually lead off. I also think that for the Cubs lineup specifically, you *want* him down there at like 7th. Unless Dansby can get his groundball rate back under 40% or Gage Workman is starting on a given day, there's not a plus power hitter in the 5-9 spots of the Cubs order. So I want Nico and especially PCA to run like hell. The proverbial three run bomb likely isn't coming until the lineup flips back around to Happ. So A) you need to pull the other levers you have to pressure the opposing pitcher and B) the opportunity cost on a caught stealing is comparatively low.
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And that's why you should never post
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Ben Brown looks incredible. Really curious how much of a chance he's got at the #5 spot vs. Rea.
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There's just no chance he tops 100 innings this year. And honestly at his age and with the value he generates as a hitter good chance he never does again.
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Jays Centre: are strikeouts really that bad?
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think mainly there's just no free lunch. Whether it manifests as homeruns or doubles or line drive singles, if your primary focus as a hitter is on "not striking out" you're almost certainly going to have a worse batted ball profile. Are there hitters who have chosen wrong? Almost certainly. But everyone's choosing to make a tradeoff. -
Yeah this is definitely the OD lineup
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I would guess our weak bench certainly hasn't helped things, but I think some of it is just life with the DH. There's a reason teams prioritized a 9th reliever over a 4th bench guy. And for the Cubs specifically Swanson's durability + the existence of Hoerner means they don't have to carry a dedicated backup shortstop. I am hoping for better bench play. Turner would make me nervous as a starter but still feels very qualified for bench work. Workman seems really fun, and Berti/Kelly are boring but I mean that as a compliment. Add in that our injury replacement at most positions is a Top 100 prospect and this *should* be a really deep team.
