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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    A bit, but nothing substantial Hard Hit Rate: 40.9% in April, 40.6% in May Barrel Rate: 9.6% in April, 10.3% in May GB Rate: 37.8% in April, 42.3% in May K's and BB's both went the wrong way as well, but less than a percentage point for each. Add it all up and the team's xwOBA has dropped a bit, from .350 in April (4th in MLB) to .341 (9th) in May. Their actual wOBA on the other hand has dropped from .348 (3rd) to .311 (16th). It's luck, these things ebb and flow. Everyone wants to make it some big failing but it's just something that happens.
  2. Bertz
    March/April BABIP - .303 May BABIP (coming into today)- .234
  3. Bertz
    Orioles are down early in Minnesota. If they don't come back they'll be 10 games under .500. Gotta be one of the more disappointing teams in recent history.
  4. Bertz
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    I decided to do a little Statcasting. Not sure how well links to there work but it should be a bunch of relevant stats by month going back to the start of last year. Caissie's power numbers picked up a bit in the second half last year, but have exploded this year. Hard hit rate over 50% both months is very good (80th-something percentile), but the barrel numbers are insane. For reference the average MLB barrel rate hovers around 8%. 20% is elite, there have only been 11 qualified seasons north of 20 since Statcast was implemented. Aaron Judge is the only guy who's ever topped 25 in a full season. The whiff rate is higher than last year, and last year was already kind of at the top end of acceptable. Here in May he's back closer to last year's range. He ideally would keep chipping away at it, but if the power is even close to legit it might not matter? Joey Gallo is right there as an easy comp. It hasn't manifested in increased production yet, but his xwOBAs have really jumped, so decent argument that he's been unlucky. Especially since, in addition to more barrels he's also juiced his pull rate (something I hadn't picked up on yet). He's at 50% on the year which is ~90th percentile. So tl;dr is that Caissie's batted ball profile is more or less perfect now.
  7. Bertz
    Why do you think I referenced Moises getting sent down in about a week?
  8. Bertz
    Caissie's contact numbers are slowly creeping up and he's keeping the GB% and EV gains
  9. Bertz
    Assuming he stays in a good place the next week+ I'd bring Shaw back up when they send down Moises
  10. Bertz
    Curious if Jefferson Rojas gets the bump to Tenn, and if not what they're looking for out of him before making the move. I wonder if they view Hernandez and/or Brethowr as close to being ready, if you hold Rojas back a week or two so that you can promote a cohort of guys up together. I think especially for a pair of middle infielders like Rojas and Hernandez there's some value to pairing them together as you send them up the ladder.
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    I'm here too. I don't think Tucker and Seiya are both on next year's team.
  13. Bertz
    Moises Ballesteros is 21 years and 6 months old. If he was an American college kid he'd be two months out from being drafted. So let's all agree to be chill if there are some rough edges to his game.
  14. Bertz
    The Cubs have played 35 games against teams over .500; the Cardinals have played 20
  15. Bertz
    Honestly I think it's less deception and more approach. He's a guy who's always been a little wild but he is FILLING the zone this year. I think hitters are doing the Anchorman "I don't believe you" bit about his ability to throw strikes now and getting burned.
  16. Bertz
    Marlins are getting Ryan Weathers back tomorrow, though that doesn't change your overall point. Looks like as things line up currently we'll only see approximately 5 lefty starters between now and the end of the month. But yeah I'm with you I'm not too antsy on Turner. I'd probably give it to the end of the month to make sure there's not a hot streak coming and to feel a little more confident that whatever kid replaces him (probably Long) is ready.
  17. Bertz
    Yeah he's coming up on a month of rehab at Iowa, which is longer than he was initially injured. And it's not like there hasn't been movement in the bullpen to free up a spot for him. The team clearly doesn't like what they're seeing and Brasier is probably another outing or two from being ready himself.
  18. Bertz
    This is fun! I would hope he could get a game or two at catcher while he's up too. Maybe have him catch Horton's starts? Also while not 1 for 1 substitutions for each other, I would add this to the growing list of signals that the team doesn't think Turner's going to pull out of it.
  19. Bertz
    Neither Verlander or Ray look fully cooked, but they're both well above room temperature. We *should* be able to take one of these two and secure another series win. Their lineup is a lot scarier against righties than lefties though, so they probably won't roll over these next two nights like they did yesterday.
  20. Bertz
    It's been really good to see him turn it around. Early in the year he just could not miss a bat in the zone to save his life. The zone contact rate against him through the second Dbacks series was a Madrigal-ian 95%, and very much *not* paired with a Madrigal-ian lack of pop. Starting with the Phillies series he's been missing bats like crazy, 61% in zone contact. He doesn't need to maintain that. or even come close. But if he can split the difference and sit approximately little south of 80% i think all the other pieces are there for him to resume the quality work he's done the last few years.
  21. Bertz
    Caissie's backslide on contact rate has been one of the biggest bummers this minor league season, but it has come with him juicing his hard hit rate AND slashing his GB rate, hence all the barrels.
  22. Bertz
    The Cubs' 4 game lead is the biggest of any division frontrunner right now
  23. Bertz
    This July I want Jed to take a big swing for someone with team control. Someone like Mackenzie Gore or Joe Ryan. A foundational piece and someone not set to hit FA after '26 like half the team. For now though? Like Squally laid out the absolute best case is an Andrew Heaney type. You're probably talking someone not too much better than Chris Flexen. Just stick with internal options like Horton or Wicks. You're getting some valuable developmental opportunity and you're probably not leaving a ton of production on the table.
  24. Bertz
    Curious if Hollowell heads immediately back down tomorrow. It's becoming clear that under Counsell a 2 inning relief appearance for an optionable arm is a kiss of death.
  25. Bertz
    Mild is still probably approaching a month? I'd give Flexen this next start against the Mets and then I'm hoping Cade Horton fills in. You could easily line it up to go vs. White Sox @ Marlins vs. Rockies Pretty much couldn't draw up a softer landing
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