Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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For those not watching
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God I love having a fast guy on the team
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The one thing I didn't like about the lineup last week that looked like the potential regular lineup was having Busch/Swanson back to back. In addition to mixing up L/R I like switching up power/contact. So this is cool, even I presume after Nico comes back and pushes Shaw to #9.
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The last time this team played games that counted, Pearson was the #2 in the bullpen pecking order and getting legitimate leverage innings. Pearson had a 2.73 ERA and 3.65 xFIP as a Cub while making on the fly mechanical adjustments. Like if Pearson's getting sent down, shouldn't we also send Hodge down to keep one of those out of options pitchers? I mean he doesn't have much track record either. As recently as last June he had a 5.74 ERA and a nearly 16% walk rate in AAA. Go to AAA and prove you can still throw strikes in the new calendar year, right? If Pearson looks broken during his side work this spring, sure, that's one thing. If we're sending him down for roster management then Jed has lost the plot. "The new and improved Brad Keller topped out at 98!" Cool. For Nate Pearson that's just a normal Tuesday.
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Curious what the level of concern is internally on Miller. He's not established enough that I feel comfortable saying he's just getting work in. But at the same time his roster spot felt pretty safe coming into the spring so he might simply just be getting his work in.
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The problem with Arizona Phil is he is well sourced, he's acutely intimate with roster management minutiae, but his baseball opinions are so so bad. It's a bit of Russian roulette reading him.
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That's the part I'm taking issue with. Unless they think he's got a real chance as a starter, or there have been red flags in what he's done on the backfields this spring, he shouldn't be at Iowa.
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If the team actually thinks Pearson can cut it as a starter, cool. If that is just a roster management play, that's really stupid. The fact that Pearson has only gone one inning each in his two spring training outings says it's the latter. Hopefully Phil is wrong.
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There was this annoying thing with Dusy the last few years where fans refused to acknowledge that he learned and grew from his Giants/Cubs era. He was no longer that guy with the Nats and Astros, and the reactionary response morphed into "actually he was never really *that* bad compared to his peers." No no, he absolutely was, and Cubs fans (and Reds fans) have numerous receipts. That's all a long winded way of saying I think CPatt ends up a star if he's 10 years younger. Between having actual numbers around defense and the flyball revolution he would have been more properly valued in the '10s and gotten way more runway.
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No TV today but AZ's park does have Statcast
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I actually think the likely avenue to Busch improving significantly is a reduced K rate rather than extra power. Among hitters with 300 PAs last year, here are Busch's percentiles in a few categories Contact Rate - 33rd In Zone Contact - 36th Chase Rate - 74th In Zone Swing rate - 49th Walk Rate - 85th Strikeout Rate - 13th That strikeout rate just does not fit with the rest of the picture. He has below average but not notably so in the contact department. He's patient but far from passive. There's just nothing under the hood that warrants a 28-29% K rate. This might have already started to course correct actually, as he ran a 25% in the second half that feels like a more natural place for him to settle. SSS but he's also improved his contact numbers this spring. The 80% contact rate he's currently got would be 66th percentile. He won't keep all those gains, though K/BB changes are the closest to sticky of any spring training stats. But if he can drop his K-rate from last year by 4-5 points that's a big deal. Back of the napkin I think that gets him up past the 3 WAR mark.
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Jays Centre: are strikeouts really that bad?
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Even for you this is a reach -
Jays Centre: are strikeouts really that bad?
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The number of times over the last 3 years Nick Madrigal came up with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and we left the at bat saying "Ah, well, nevertheless" killed any remaining horsefeathers I give about situational strikeouts. From a teambuilding perspective I am wary of too many strikeouts. But to me it's a symptom of susceptibility more than the strikeouts themselves. If the team wants to strike out 30% of the time but run a 110 wRC+ and not have any glaring pitch type susceptibilities that's fine. -
I like Christian Franklin a lot. I tend to think he's going to be a long term bench guy here.
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Not the most fun lineup aside from Shaw. Hopefully there's a fun surprise or two on the reliever front. Horton for instance is about due to get into a game.
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Great article from Sharma about Kevin Alcantara this AM. Lots of good stuff but this stood out. Expect some stretches where Alcantara (and presumably at other times the other prospects?) are up basically just to hang out and get used to the big leagues.
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It would be great if playing in CF is easier for Seiya. I've always heard that if you have the high level of athleticism for the position, skill-wise it's the easiest spot on the field. And it's a good point about the lights that might add some Seiya-specific help. It might also just be that with his problems it doesn't matter where he plays. He has the speed, he has the arm, he's just kind of a putz out there and makes more mistakes than a typical OF. So if he's going to make an extra misplay or two every month and otherwise be a plus outfielder, then does it matter if those misplays occur in Right or Center or Left?
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Most of the Cubs lefties are starting the night game against Cole Ragans and it is very much not going how you'd expect
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They do need to add them I believe. I might be missing some nuance but basically - The team will have a normal 26 man roster for both games - There will be 5 guys in Japan in case a roster move is necessary (probably all relievers, maybe 4 relievers and Brujan) - There are three roster spots for guys who will stay in the US. This is basically a short term IL for guys in a situation like Nico who are good to go for late March but not mid March Assad will likely go on the regular IL. I believe Taillon/Boyd will be on the regular 26 man roster, and then those 5 extra guys in Japan will likely be dudes like Keegan Thompson just on the outside of the roster looking in.
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That was a dominant inning from Merryweather. If we could get him even like 80% of the way to 2023 form that'd be amazing
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Seiya Suzuki starting in CF today Him as the backup CF addresses a number of issues, hopefully he makes the best of this opportunity
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Split squad today. One game on TV, the other in front of Statcast
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Following up on this. Seiya Suzuki's been our best power hitter the last few years, especially in terms of power to all fields. He has topped out at 115.5 MPH, and he has 114 balls hit in the air at least 106 MPH the last three years. If you limit him to just balls in the air and to the opposite field, he tops out at 110.0 and only has 9 balls at/above 106. Ian Happ only has one such ball , and it was just over the threshold at 106.5. Kyle Tucker has none! Cristian Hernandez appears to have big boy power, he's a true shortstop and he just turned 21. Exciting stuff.
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Cristian Hernandez hit a 106 MPH triple. It went 360 feet to the opposite field on a line If he finally breaks out that's probably the funnest thing that could happen on the farm this year outside of Iowa.
