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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Nightengale has not had a high profile gaffe yet this offseason. Curious if this is that gaffe. Even at his best though, he certainly doesn't get benefit of the doubt over mounds of local reporting.
  2. Bertz
    This is really good. I've mostly been focusing on Wicks' velo for this season. There seems to be a sweet spot around 92.5 where he starts missing a lot more bats and feeling viable. But I like this look at his secondaries. And honestly any pitcher who's not a finished product (and maybe even some who are) you have to wonder what Zombro has planned for them. If the team does up the sinker usage and teach Jordan a death ball, it feels like they'll have basically reverse engineered Jordan Montgomery? Hopefully it's that easy.
  3. Bertz
    You're certainly not wrong, and it's a big part of why I'm not thrilled about Bregman. But I also don't want to throw good money after bad. Swapping Bregman/Nico does two things - Shifts the talent on the team to be more offense-oriented (and I gotta admit, the lineup looks way sweeter with Bregman) - Makes the team's financial situation potentially worse in 26/27/28 I'm fairly comfortable with the team's talent level right now (also part of the reason I'm pumping the brakes on this whole thing), so I'd want some player talent to offset that potential financial cost in 2026+. To borrow a phrase if there's a way to thread the needle, something like Hoerner + a young SP for Tanner Houck, that's great! But I'm also cool bolstering the farm, going to war with this team, and worrying about the rotation again in July. What I don't want to do is get laser focused on Nico for a SP and end up regretting it because the options available at this 11th hour weren't the best.
  4. Bertz
    If Bregman/Tucker leave you still have that money you earmarked for them to spend elsewhere. Plus the aforementioned prospects for Nico. I'd of course want Tucker to get retained (and I'd want Bregman to walk) but it's hardly going to ruin the team if both guys walk.
  5. Bertz
    I'll say on the Nico piece, one of the benefits to backfilling him with Bregman is I don't think you *need* some stud MLBer back. Like when the Cubs and Mariners talks around Nico were hot and heavy the talk was the Mariners wanted to make a deal with prospects and the Cubs needed MLB talent back. With a Nico deal looking contingent on adding Bregman, the MLB team is not left lacking by a trade. I'm fine if the Mariners want to send us prospects, as long as it's a deal where we get strong value.
  6. Bertz
    Dylan Moore is ideally a high quality utility guy, so I think if the Mariners have the desire Nico is still a fit I'll throw out the Red Sox and Guardians as possible fits too.
  7. Bertz
    He was really on the Paredes stuff and a few other things. Did not seem as on several other things (Bellinger I wanna say?) But yeah this feels inevitable right now. I'm just gonna focus on how well Bregman ties the lineup together and hope the specifics once I see them assauge my concerns.
  8. Bertz
    So I think these are good points and worth expanding on. - Bregman's year one opt out is probably a good bit more likely to be exercised than Bellinger's. The big reason IMO is age. Bellinger's heading into his 29 season, so wanting to stick around and try for a better platform year was viable as 30's still not old for a FA. Bregman will be entering his age 32 season next year, and would be entering 33 in '27. Bellinger had a session that made opting out iffy and stayed put, while Bregman would have more urgency even with a comparable mild disappointment of a season - Signing Tucker's not a guarantee. That said, it's potentially a really strong FA class (a lot of pitching, so maybe it won't stay that way). So you do want that money either way to pivot. Much in the way that the Yankees "replaced" Juan Soto with Cody Bellinger and Max Fried
  9. Bertz
    You have to get through 2026 first. Right now payroll for '26 is about $185M (there's of course some wiggle room this far out). $30M for Alex Bregman and $35M for Kyle Tucker for example would have the team already a smidge over the Luxury without any supplemental or complimentary moves. It's not impossible the team runs a higher payroll next year. The team did it once before in 2019, and 2026 has been the clear payroll spike season for a few years now. But notice I said the team has done it once before. 15 years under Ricketts, one year where they significantly passed the cap. Can't take for granted that's a move Jed has available to him. So if you sign a big multi-year deal this year, your options for next year are: - Hope Tom's feeling generous - Let Tucker walke - Have an offseason where you do *nothing* of substance beyond adding Tucker - Be backed into a corner where you have to trade payroll (and several of the prime suspects have no trade clauses!) It's not an impossible situation, but it sucks. And I'm not sure Alex Bregman is the move that feels worth putting yourself in that sucky situation.
  10. Bertz
    This is very interesting to me. Is this because the Dodgers couldn't get someone else to pay more (they DFA'd Brasier, other teams could easily wait them out) or because Jed affirmatively paid down Brasier's already modest $4.5M salary? The latter would definitely make you raise an eyebrow when paired with the Bregman stuff.
  11. Bertz
    Speaking of payroll and Bregman. After Brasier Roster Resource has the Cubs right at $30M under the tax for this year. So one of these three things is seemingly true: - The Cubs are out on Bregman - The Cubs are willing to go above the LT - The Cubs have another deal (presumably Hoerner) lined up after adding Bregman to send some money out I guess technically a 4th possibility is that Bregman costs less than $30M, but I find that very hard to believe on a short term deal.
  12. Bertz
    Happ and Suzuki have full NTCs, and Taillon has a partial one. Not impossible to work around (Suzuki sounded potentially amenable at the Winter Meetings) but potentially quite messy and complicated.
  13. Bertz
    Unless Ricketts is cool with a one year spike in payroll, which we should all treat as a "believe when I see it" deal, it would make keeping both guys tough. Not impossible, but you'd have to move some payroll, which is never as easy as you want it to be.
  14. Bertz
    Bullpen right now would presumably be: CL - Pressly SU (1 inning) - Brasier, Hodge SU (multi-inning) - Pearson Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather That's a good pen as is. If anyone else gets added Merryweather would seemingly be next on the chopping block. Similarly if Rea doesn't win the 5th starter spot Merryweather would seem to be the one to go. I also wouldn't hate a small Tyson Miller trade. I feel like him and Brasier are a bit duplicative.
  15. Bertz
    (pending what a Nico trade return would look like)
  16. Bertz
    This is a good point. The Brewers signing Christian Yelich to a mega extension immediately after he had mangled his knee comes to mind.
  17. Bertz
    None of this sounds worth a Bellinger contract and a 2nd round pick.
  18. Bertz
    Yeah Kilian is probably nothing at this point, at least as a SP. He did have a big time velo bump last spring out of the bullpen, so you can at least dream on him in short relief. 98-100 generally plays even when it's fairly flat.
  19. Bertz
    Yeah I think if they don't make the move now it becomes imperative to do it at the deadline. But, I do think there's enough support in place that I don't feel too bad about waiting for July. We saw last year, the Brewers were pretty successful with Freddy Peralta and a bunch of innings eaters. They were able to do this thanks to: - A strong defense to mitigate all those extra balls in play - A stellar bullpen to lock down close games and minimize unnecessary exposure for the weaker parts of the rotation - A good offense that wins plenty of games where the pitching gives up 3/4/5 runs I think, especially if we end up with Robertson or Suarez the Cubs should likely have all 3 of those components and be able to win plenty of games started by Taillon/Rea/Assad. Add a playoff starter in July for the stretch run and we should be good.
  20. Bertz
    Kiley McDaniel releases his full Top 10 1. MattShaw 2. Moises Ballesteros 3. Kevin Alcantara 4. Owen Caissie 5. Cade Horton 6. Jefferson Rojas 7. James Triantos 8. Brandin Birdsell 9. Yahil Melendez 10. Jaxon Wiggins
  21. Bertz
    I have not exactly been rah rah for Bregman previously, but I think I'm fully out on him after reading this. You have to have one hell of a subsequent deal lined up for Nico (or Shaw?) for this to feel anywhere near worth it.
  22. Bertz
    I suspect the goal for him, especially if the team ends up with another bonafide late inning arm like Robertson or Suarez, is going to be a multi-inning setup man akin to what Keegan Thompson was at his peak. I think this does a few things: - It plays to Pearson's strengths that you highlighted above - It builds in a rest day for the rest of the other late inning arms. You had an article on this a few months back, but teams are trying to move away from back-to-backs and certainly avoiding three days in a row. Being able to bring Pearson into the 7th or 8th and letting him just take a game to the house is potentially really valuable - It provides a role on the team that Brown and/or Horton can also step into. I don't think either guy should have the door shut on starting, but I do think expecting more than 120-130 innings out of either this year is a pipedream. I also think either guy would rock this type of role. 15 starts and 20-25 high leverage long relief appearances might be the best way to thread the needle between development and providing value
  23. Bertz
    To TT'S point, the numerous reliever -> starter transitions the last few years show that more or less any currently healthy fully veteran pitcher can throw up 120-150 innings without a gradual buildup. For Boyd specifically, he had forearm issues for two years, which are often a precursor to elbow issues, and then his elbow popped which compromised parts of two years. This isn't a second TJ, this isn't a labrum, this isn't a Jacob deGrom situation where every part of the kinetic chain seems compromised. He's a pitcher, so I wouldn't stake my reputation on him staying healthy, but I'm less worried about him than I am most pitchers because of his age and his velo.
  24. Bertz
    I believe the Rangers series lines up for us to get deGrom too. Though with him I kind of wonder if the Rangers don't ease him into the year to get him to last deeper into the season, similar to what the Dodgers are trying to do with Ohtani.
  25. Bertz
    Have you seen this thing? https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2025/fullseason April is ROUGH, and the first two weeks of May aren't a lot better - The Cubs have 3 separate series against the Dodgers - 8 of the first 14 series are against teams Pecota and Fangraphs project to make the playoffs - 3 more of those 14 series are against teams projected over .500 - The Cubs only face two outright bad teams: the Pirates and A's, and both series are on the road. The Pirates have an off day before our series, so you have to presume they'll line things up to give us Paul Skenes and Jared Jones Even if this team is the goods and ends up winning 95 games, it's very possible they enter May under .500 and don't start pulling away from there until closer to Memorial Day. That said it's not totally doom and gloom. There are some silver linings even early in the year - After the Cubs leave New York on 5/11, it's nearly a month before they play another good team (YMMV on the Tigers, otherwise the Phillies on 6/9) - Because of the Japan series, the team has A TON of off days early on. Except May 1st, every Thursday until June is an off day, with a couple Mondays sprinkled in as well - Since the Cubs open in Arizona, they knock out a "west coast trip" without it actually being a lengthy trip
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