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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    The draft being part of the All Star Break hurts too. Much in the same way that the offseason dies for a week or two heading into the arbitration deadline, draft prep is a huge lift in terms of man hours for industry folks.
  2. Bertz
    I hope that lasts another three days, but even with the injuries this is probably a .500ish team on talent and they're going to pull out of it at some point.
  3. Bertz
    I think this series is going to be less easy than folks think. The SP matchups are advantageous obviously, but the Twins' bullpen is monstrous and their position player group is solid. Add in being on the road and I don't think we should just assume a cake walk. I'll be happy with 3-3 this week heading into the break.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah he reads like if you put Nico and Dansby in a blender. That's probably phenomenal value but I don't expect this fanbase to process "10-12 homerun power" appropriately
  5. Bertz
    Reading up more on Houston since I hadn't paid much attention to him prior to this, and man this board would hate that pick lol
  6. Bertz
    Not super valuable since it reads like this is a dart throw rather than anything sourced, but Keith Law this AM
  7. Bertz
    I had not noticed, but Charlie Morton has basically been back to peak form for like two months now. And if you want an excuse to believe it's legit, his velo is up corresponding to that. It's really a tale of 3 seasons: First 4 Starts: 10.90 ERA (not a typo!), 5.82 xFIP, 93.3 MPH fastball Banished to the bullpen (7 long relief outings and one spot start): 4.43 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 94.3 MPH fastball Back to the Rotation (7 starts): 2.97 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 94.4 MPH fastball So he's back in the rotation, dominating, and didn't lose any velo from his time relieving. He CAN NOT be your only pitching addition, but if we add two SPs I'd be perfectly happy for Morton to be the lesser.
  8. Bertz
    In the Athletic this weekend they mentioned that the plan isn't to start Wicks, it's to continue to stretch out Flexen. I suspect that's publicly because Flexen has earned it and privately to put Wicks in advantageous situations to try and showcase him for trade. That said, the Yankees do absolutely mash lefties and the Twins very much don't, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do a Flexen/Wicks piggyback Thursday and push Rea back that extra day to Friday. I don't think you feel great about either game regardless, but I think k that arrangement gives you a couple extra percentage points on each matchup.
  9. Bertz
    I'm curious how badly the next few weeks need to go to turn the Cardinals into sellers. Their playoff odds are 32% at the moment, and they're just a game out of a wildcard spot. That's generally "cautious buyer" territory. However, they came into this season IMO pretty clearly wanting to sell. Assuming they tread water the next few weeks, I wonder if they at least sell Helsley and Matz?
  10. Bertz
    Yeah I want Cabrera pretty bad. I think my current favorite outcome for the deadline is Cabrera + Zac Gallen + Willi Castro. - Cabrera's the obvious big fish and would be here for a long time, so the hefty prospect price he'll inevitably cost should feel worth it for a good while - Gallen's having a tough year, but his velo is fine and he does keep having occasional dominant outings. He feels fixable, and if he's not it's not the end of the world because we added another starter. His tough year should keep the price reasonable - Adding two SPs is going to take a hefty chunk out of the farm, so I'd forego adding relief help. Not that we couldn't always use more, but the current group is doing quite well as is. And on top of that by adding both Cabrera and Gallen, you ensure both Brown and Horton are relief options at the end of the year, which should make up for that reliever we don't add via trade
  11. Bertz
    I know he only went 40 pitches but Jordan Wicks is going to be a big problem for opposing hitters if he's sitting 94.
  12. Bertz
    Statcast looks like it went down for the 3rd and the 4th, but Brown didn't throw any changeups the first two innings
  13. Bertz
    Booo, Mule had another game where he pitched great for a couple innings and then imploded
  14. Bertz
    They're a half step behind the holy trinity of the Rays/Guardians/Brewers, but the Cubs are clearly a "you get some benefit of the doubt" team when it comes to pitcbers.
  15. Bertz
    Because of potential seeding implications the Phillies winning is worse for us than the Reds and I'm not sure it's close
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    Moises is back in the lineup and behind the plate Caissie has already donged tonight
  18. Bertz
    They weren't bad in May you're just bucketing May and June together to try and make your point stronger.
  19. Bertz
    You realize you're making the *exact* same arguments that I did earlier right? Sample size and quality of competition. Ring any bells?
  20. Bertz
    lol
  21. Bertz
    Literally no one has said that. There are two camps here: "Their full season numbers are good so I'm not worried" "They were bad in June so I'm worried"
  22. Bertz
    That's all June though. Here are their monthly splits vs lefties April - 144 May - 100 June - 78 July - 114 Also doesn't it tell you something about the molehill you're making a mountain out of when you cherry pick a date range and the bottom line is still just "slightly below average"?
  23. Bertz
    Setting aside that I think it's silly to get worked up over small samples, they scored 3 runs in 6 innings *with the wind blowing in* against Andrew Heaney. If these are the sorts of games reinforcing your position I don't know what to tell you.
  24. Bertz
    Here's a useful exercise: Go look at the individual pitchers that make up that June playing time, and tell me if anything besides the fact that they're left handed stands out to you
  25. Bertz
    Interesting. My topline reaction would be that Rojas shouldn't be for sale so he shouldn't be part of these games, though I understand how irrational that is. It's also interesting because some teams (looking at you, Padres) have tried to game trade value the opposite way by getting everyone into a super favorable age relative to their league, so that even if they struggle you can say "but he's only 20".
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