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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'm totally fine with Bregman going to Detroit, but when's the last time Ofman had sources worth a damn. Legitimately back to the Hendry era, no?
  2. Bertz
    Yeah I just posted in the general thread but Passan speculated just yesterday about the Padres signing Pivetta and then trading one of their guys.
  3. Bertz
    Soooooo Nick Pivetta to the Padres, and Jeff Passan wrote this yesterday Especially with Bregman sounding close, hold onto your butts?
  4. Bertz
    "Don't worry, we'll just dump money at the deadline while still maintaining our competitive ability" is like the epitome of the Tobias Fünke "but it might work for us" meme.
  5. Bertz
    Especially given he played winterball and didn't touch 1B yeah it's pretty clear this is a Bregman related deal. That said, they could have had Connor Joe or Ty France for just $200Kish more. So I'm curious which of these is why Canario's now the play: - Those guys were understandably not willing to wait on Bregman's decision before taking the bird in hand, so Jed's gotta scramble a bit - That $200K matters to Jed (might imply a sign Bregman keep Hoerner scenario?) - The team doesn't love Canario anymore (clearly) but still likes him more than that caliber of veteran It doesn't ultimately matter and we'll never know, but that second one popped into my head as a potential implication.
  6. Bertz
    Nodding to Trueblood's article this afternoon, I anticipate one bench player will be someone with a *very* tenuous grasp on a roster spot. They are keeping a spot warm until there's a multi-day but not IL-worthy injury or one of the prospects goes ultra instinct and forces a callup. Canario is still in the org IMO because there are certain permutations where it makes sense for him to be that guy compared to Workman or Brujan. But all three are clinging to the roster by their fingernails IMO.
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
    It should also probably be noted that Connor Joe and Ty France each signed 1/$1M contracts in the last week. Donovan Solano, whose current profile isn't too terribly different, got $3.5M. There's a pretty good chance we're talking about $4-5M rather than $8-10M, and the only alternative move this is truly incompatible with is Bregman
  9. Bertz
    I try to avoid linking to Twitter but Marquee doesn't cross-post videos and you can't screenshot one Counsell explicitly calls out the org's lack of depth at 1B. So I definitely expect one at this point. Likely Turner if no Bregman, and then someone more league minimum-y (Juan Yepez?) if paired with Bregman.
  10. Bertz
    Yeah Vlad Jr.'s probably the most expensive player they could plausibly add and even he'd be a smidge under $10M come the deadline? I don't hate the team holding onto more than the customary $10M for in season stuff, but once you get past like $15M you start leaving the realm of likelihood IMO.
  11. Bertz
    Why are you setting the bar at "up year" and "impact player" for someone everyone is clear eyed will be on the bench?
  12. Bertz
    Do you...think ZiPS (or any projection for that matter) doesn't know about this?
  13. Bertz
    If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance. Darn!
  14. Bertz
    Justin Turner has a 118 wRC+ the last three years, and ZiPS projects him for a 112 this season. That would make him the Cubs' 5th best hitter. None of the other bench options project to even 90. The projected offensive difference between Turner and Berti (our best offensive bench player currently!) is the same as last year's difference between Ian Happ and Bryce Harper. This also grossly underestimates how much playing time reserve players get. Even players who never hit the IL still miss ~20 games a year on average to normal rest. So while I'm in total agreement that Turner is primarily a 1B/DH at this point, there are ~80 starts to be had backing up 1B/DH/LF/RF (the latter two indirectly through Suzuki moving out of DH) even in a fantasy world where no one gets injured enough to hit the IL this upcoming season.
  15. Bertz
    This was Tucked away in Mooney's Bregman article last night. Combined with what Trueblood wrote, I'm assuming the Bregman backup plan is Turner and Robertson, maybe Finnegan.
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6130234/2025/02/11/cubs-alex-bregman-clubhouse-fit/ Again it's just vibes, but this really reads with a sense of inevitability. Especially from someone like Mooney who is very much *not* a cheerleader for the team.
  18. Bertz
    Devers is pretty terrible at 3rd. I wonder if for like player politics reasons they know they can only ask him to move off the position for a Gold Glover, and so there's some incentive to add a Bregman/Arenado rather than ask him in a year to move for one of the youths like Campbell?
  19. Bertz
    Yeah it's admittedly just vibes but this all feels way too similar to the Bellinger stuff last year. I kind of assume it's the Cubs right now on an opt-out heavy deal, and he's holding out hoping for someone to step up and give him the lengthy deal he really wants. I wonder what the drop-dead dates are. Because Bellinger fit the Cubs roster *so* cleanly it was kind of whenever. But there are more moving parts with Bregman so I wonder if the Cubs have a line in the sand somewhere in the next week or two. Because the longer this goes the less likely I think they are to for instance deal Nico somewhere.
  20. Bertz
    There's a tough line to walk with the bench. You want to allow for the kids to be the fill-ins if there's a lengthy injury or extensive underperformance. I think that's part of why versatility has been the focus to this point. But at the same time, I don't think we can just punt on the bench. Right now the bench is Kelly, Berti, and two of Canario/Brujan/Workman. That group combined for 12 major league homeruns last year. ZiPS does not project any of them to crack a 90 wRC+ this year. It is an offensive black hole. Circling back to the kids, we don't have a good 1B candidate in the immediate term, certainly not a RHH one. Caissie's not played the position in real games, Ballesteros would ideally focus on catching, and Jonny Long hasn't played a game at Iowa. This team really needs an actual backup 1B, even if we'd quibble about who and how many resources to allocate to him. So i understand wanting to hold resources back for bigger moves, and that's certainly why this hasn't already happened already. You read the article and Turner's already got wife approval, this sounds fairly far along, and probably gets finalized within a day of Bregman's decision.
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    Angels signed Kenley Jansen. Wasn't an option here with him very understandably insisting on closing. But the relief market, in terms of guys you'd probably be willing to replace one of our incumbents with, is basically just Robertson now.
  23. Bertz
    More information about "The Athletic: Cubs Eying Justin Turner"
    The rumor du jour the last two weeks in Cubs land has been Alex Bregman. We finally have an indication of what the team's backup plan is if he chooses to go elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney indicate tonight the team is eying the aged Justin Turner. After the Cody Bellinger and Matt Mervis trades, the Cubs' roster is very thin at first base behind starter Michael Busch. Matt Trueblood wrote about the issue earlier today. Turner would give the time a far more viable backup than they have on hand currently. Turner is mostly a 1B/DH at this point in his career, so while his Baseball-Reference page says "Third Basemen" he would not be a threat to block Matt Shaw unless things went very very wrong for the rookie. Turner would likely play 1B and DH primarily, and get just a smattering of playing time at 2nd and 3rd.
  24. Bertz
    The rumor du jour the last two weeks in Cubs land has been Alex Bregman. We finally have an indication of what the team's backup plan is if he chooses to go elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney indicate tonight the team is eying the aged Justin Turner. After the Cody Bellinger and Matt Mervis trades, the Cubs' roster is very thin at first base behind starter Michael Busch. Matt Trueblood wrote about the issue earlier today. Turner would give the time a far more viable backup than they have on hand currently. Turner is mostly a 1B/DH at this point in his career, so while his Baseball-Reference page says "Third Basemen" he would not be a threat to block Matt Shaw unless things went very very wrong for the rookie. Turner would likely play 1B and DH primarily, and get just a smattering of playing time at 2nd and 3rd. View full rumor
  25. Bertz
    1. Fair for a longer deal is probably in the neighborhood of the 6/$156 the Astros presumably offered, maybe a smidge higher. Shorter is harder to say because the devil is in the details but comfortably north of what Bellinger got. Either an extra $5Mish AAV or a 4th year. 2. It sounds like Boras wants an AAV that beats Rafael Devers $31.3M, AND wants 6-7 years. I think you can justify either but not both. 3. My gut says he's a Cub and gets roughly the contract Trueblood laid out
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