Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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This feels relevant given the Cubs literally added Colin Rea. I'd imagine Taillon and Boyd grade out well by this measure as well.
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I wonder how long you give Pressly in a situation like this. Obviously it's not the trade deadline or the winter meetings, there's some time to think things over. But do you give him a day? The weekend? Until the #2 guy on the Cubs' list is about to sign elsewhere?
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Yeah that's kind of hard to turn down. That said 3 years is a bit of an awkward contract length for him as a 30 year old. He'd re-enter FA too old to get more than ~3 years again but clearly wouldn't have banked enough before that for that to feel totally worth it. I wonder if this is a situation for a swell-opt like what Shota or Gerrit Cole have. - Cubs and Bregman agree to a 3 year deal - Bregman has the chance to opt out after year 1 - Cubs have a chance to "nuh uh" that opt out by adding 2-3 years onto the original contract
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- alex bregman
- matt shaw
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Sure, that's not wrong. I think once we get off of paper into real games and injuries start taking their toll the depth will make it's mark though. Like we're all underwhelmed by Colin Rea, but by volume he was the #3 starter for the Brewers in '23 and the #2 starter last year. And both teams comfortably won the division. The point there is not "Colin Rea is secretly good actually" but instead the point is that the rotation we talk about in February and the one we get in June are very different and not in a good way. I mean hell look at last year's Dodgers for an extreme example.
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I'm really talking myself into the Pressly/Robertson combo. That has a real chance to give us a Yankees style bullpen of doom. It also leaves money for at least one more quality bench add, pretty decent chance for two. It's not as sexy as Bregman or Flaherty, but we'd be looking at a strong roster top to bottom.
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Fun fact I just found. Pressly projects slightly better than any Brewers reliever. They will still have a better bullpen than us on paper, but between our improvements and their losses it's not looking like the major advantage it has been the past 8 years
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At this point if you add a closer and a backup 1B, this team is plausibly complete. Closer will likely take low 8 figures, and the 1B can vary (at the low end there are always Garret Cooper types available). So I suspect that we see a closer added very soon here, and then Jed can just be opportunistic for whatever scenario presents itself as the best way to spend the remaining ~$20M. Flaherty? Awesome. Two closers? Great! Max Scherzer? It's worth a shot! I'd guess this ties into Bregman. Bregman is the best player still available by a healthy margin. He also, at a likely ~$30M salary, does not fit as cleanly into the team's budget as other options. So I would guess Heyman is not making things up, but in practice this is Jed and Boras trying to nail down with certainty that Bregman to the Cubs won't work so that both sides can move on.
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Yeah if we're going to make a move like this Bregman is not the guy I'd use this bullet on. Both for Bregman-specific reasons and Matt Shaw reasons. One year pillow deal so he can shed his QO and re-enter next year's market? Hell yeah. 5 year deal? Eeeekkk.
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I think Nico would definitely go. I don't know that it would be Seattle. Nico for Castillo would no longer work financially, and the Mariners appear to have really stuck to their guns on the "we're not trading our young pitching" pledge. Cleveland maybe? I know they traded away a very similar guy in Gimenez, but Nico is signed to a much shorter term so he wouldn't be blocking Bazzana long term.
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I saw this AM that the Rangers are considering having Jon Gray move into late inning relief. That's either a very sad attempt at leverage or a very funny sign that they're tapped out financially.
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David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think the assumption should be that most of the guys who have minor league options will be using them until there is injury or underperformance. There will be injuries, particularly early in the year, but the goal with the pitching staff this winter both in words and actions certainly seems to be maxing out on depth. I love Brown as much as anyone, but he threw just 55 innings last year and none after early June. He can make a handful of starts at Iowa before it should be considered wasting bullets. -
David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't imagine Pearson will ultimately get a real crack in the rotation. That said, if he's stretching out maybe he's used as a 2-3 inning guy (with leverage!) a la Keegan Thompson at the height of his powers? A bullpen like this would be pretty horsefeathering sweet: Closer - Pressly 1 Inning Setup - Robertson, Hodge Multi-Inning Setup - Pearson Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar That multi-inning setup role Pearson resides in would also be an opportune role to get Brown/Horton/Birdsell into the mix at various points through the year as well. -
David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Robertson is a veteran closer, but has not always insisted on save opps. So it may not be an accident that it's Pressly and Robertson getting talked about concurrently. You can pair Pressly and Robertson, while you (probably) can't pair Pressly and Jansen for instance. -
This really sounds like it's more or less ready to go and just contingent on Pressly saying yes. I also liked this:
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David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm an "age is just a number" guy for pitchers, though I will say 40 and beyond does make me a little extra nervous. But Robertson has been consistently dominant since he came back from TJ so it's hard to find anything wrong with him besides his birthday. This would get a hell yeah from me. -
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6084614/2025/01/23/astros-alex-bregman-free-agent-discussions?source=user-shared-article My guess is there's a deal done conditioned on Bregman going back to the Astros and/or Pressly waiving his NTC. That's mean Bob jumped the gun but it's still likely to go down.
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This is a really good question, I believe the answer is no though. I believe on an administrative level we'd return him, he'd go back to being a non 40 man prospect for the Tigers, and then we'd acquire him as such.
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Usually when there's a disconnect like this between the national guys and the local guys it's a semantics thing and the team just doesn't like the deal being framed as almost done. Inevitably though a deal gets confirmed within an hour or two. Bob though is very liable to just totally bungle something like this.
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Ryan Pressly took a step back last year, but he was still 29th among relievers in Stuff+ (one spot ahead of AJ Puk, two spots behind Luke Weaver) and 44th in xFIP (two spots behind Luke Weaver, 4 behind Tanner Scott). So yes he's declined but he's gone from elite to still very good. ZiPS projects him for a 3.35 ERA. Probably knock a 10-15 points off of that in the conversion from Houston to Wrigley.
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Nice, I wanted Pressly during certain variations of the Tucker deal. I would rank him pretty close to Kenley Jansen among the FA RPs, so at his salary the player return needs to be nominal. One of our relievers feeling the roster squeeze like Keegan Thompson?
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By the way this math has been done ad nauseum. Here's a Pete Palmer article from 43 years ago that built on three already existing analyses: https://sabr.org/journal/article/runs-and-wins/
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Cade Horton either needing shoulder surgery or twelve months of rehab is a prominent that comes to my mind.
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No. It's the contrarian who the burden of proof falls on. Especially given your propensity to make horsefeathers up, I'm not going to put effort into proving e.g. the sky isn't purple.
