Bertz

I think if you want to say that runs saved =/= runs scored then its incumbent on you to prove that out. Ditto tossing out park adjustments.

On a park adjusted basis the Cubs offense was better than their pitching last year. On top of that they've added Kyle Tucker, and you'd expect that the worst of Amaya/Busch/PCA's growing pains are in the rear view mirror.

A 1B is a virtual certainty. After trading Bellinger and Mervis there's not another 1B on the 40 man roster. Miguel Amaya has played 4 games at 1B since the pandemic, and as it stands he's the team's most experienced defensive option if Busch needs a day off. The question is what beyond that. If you don't add anyone, just give the spot to one of the lesser kids (Canario, Brujan, Workman), you're running out a lesser team to open the year but you're keeping a roster spot warm for when any of the prospects starts making noise at Iowa. If you add someone, like a Yoan Moncada or a Jorge Polanco, you give the team a *very* strong bench but make it that much harder to break any of the kids to break onto the roster. I'd prefer the latter but it's not a total slam dunk.

I don't know if I agree with this conclusion (I think it presupposes Brujan's name is written in pen on the OD roster), but if it is the right read I think you'd expect a RHH 1B and that to be that as far as the bench goes. If it is right read, I'd really want to work out a deal with the Tigers to keep Workman. Need as many potential bullets as possible down at Iowa for 3B if Shaw flops and Berti is your only MLB safety net.

I mentioned this in the megathread but this is a better place for it: If Berti is an upgraded version of Brujan this is great. If Berti is the primary backup to Shaw I'd be very nervous.

Berti instead of Brujan as the utility guy would be great Berti as the Matt Shaw handcuff....yeesh Losing out on Scott should mean we can squeeze in a third bench salary, so I'm hopeful for the former. Berti, Moncada, Canha, and Finnegan for instance likely comes in a bit under $30M still?

Is this intentional? Because if so bravo if not boy do I have some funny news for you.

One thing that's worth understanding is teams aren't dumb anymore. Okay aside from the Rockies teams aren't really dumb anymore. If a team does something that makes you go "why would they do that?" the best reaction is to dig into why they might have done that. There's invariably a reasonable explanation.

What do you think would be different about this offseason/2025 if the team had come in just below the tax line in 2024?

There are people really sweating Michael Arias? Like he would absolutely get demoted to AA if he were still in the org on opening day. There are upwards of 20 guys you would pick to save a game before you'd pick him right now. Like yeah the stuff is good (and to be clear, just good not amazing), and there's a chance he goes somewhere and it clicks, but so what? Relievers do that all the time. If you hold onto every reliever with a live arm just because you're scared of the 5% chance they suddenly develop command you're not going to have any depth options capable of actually getting outs.

If the team wants to add 3 bench guys instead of 2 to compensate for some of the lost oomph in the bullpen after missing on Scott, you could do worse than Bader. That said two of the last three years he's been worse against lefties than righties, so he's not necessarily still equipped to be that strong compliment to PCA that a younger iteration of Bader would have been. I have been surprised at how little attention a veteran backup CF has gotten. It seems likely that will be Brujan or Canario to open the year. Is it a resource thing, where they'd like a CF but want to fill other holes first? Is it a situation where they want PCA facing lefties for his development? Is it confidence that Alcantara will be up before too long?

In the bullpen I'm largely fine with it. When things were really bad last year part of why they couldn't pull out of the skid is that guys at Iowa like Palencia were also hurt and lesser prospects like Bailey Horn were struggling, so alternative options were to just ride it out or try our hand with the Colten Brewers and Thomas Pannone's of the world. As much as I chuckle at this and wonder how they're going to juggle it, it is nice to have someone like Ethan Roberts as like RP15 instead of RP9 or RP10. The rotation...yeah I still don't like the Rea decision. But I guess charitably if they want to really lean on depth and optionality Rea's ability to adapt and swing could prove valuable for maximizing how many starts from our younger more talented arms the team can fit into the schedule.

Yeah I put pen to paper on it under Trueblood's article yesterday because it's getting kind of ridiculous. Barring injury we don't know about, there's one spot open on the MLB pitching staff before you start having to cut guys. And Iowa's not a lot better unless the plan is to push legitimate prospects back down to Tennesee just to hoard arms.

This doesn't feel firm enough to post as a rumor, but from this morning's Athletic And paired with this "Add a closer" and "deepen the bullpen" as two separate items on the to-do list? I guess don't be surprised if they add two RPs of substance? I wonder if the second has to be a Raley who would be stashed on the IL, or if Keegan Thompson is pure placeholder at this point.

I would say broadly the thing the team is doing (or maybe more accurate to say not doing) that feels questionable is at SP. On the position player side the team is running a good or very good option out everywhere but catcher, and catcher was kind of impossible to meaningfully upgrade this winter more than they did. Replacing Shaw with Bregman or Busch with Alonso would be simply be fans wanting a shiny new toy and likely not make the team significantly better. Bench help is still needed, but it sounds pretty clear that's still on the way. On the bullpen, I'd have liked Scott or Yates more than Finnegan (sounds like that's where we'll end up), but except at the very extremes closers just don't move the needle that much. They're also famously hard to predict. Josh Hader signed that big contract last winter and ranked in the 30-50 range in most metrics. SP I think more should have clearly been invested. Whichever of Assad/Rea ends up being the 5th starter, it feels like that is pretty easily the worst full-time spot on the roster. There are two questions which could move me towards being okay with punting on a SP trade however: 1. Does the team project themselves significantly ahead of the Brewers currently? 2. Is the team committed to paying inflated prices for a SP at the trade deadline? We've seen a lot in recent years that March/April are a bloodbath for SP injuries as guys get ramped up. IF you think you've got some cushion between you and the Brewers (5+ games?), there's some logic to waiting until July and buying SPs when you know they're healthy.

Looks like Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner are pretty close to locks to make it into the HOF tonight. Beltran's right on the edge. Final numbers are usually on average 5ish points lower than the ballot tracker

I like Brett but he's always been like this. He'll be calm and grounded but get WAY too attached to one random dude and snap once they sign somewhere else. Last winter it was Robert Stephenson. And then the non Bretts at BN are just generally dim.

I'm curious how many of these guys the team can even manage to hold onto into the regular season. Right now, once the inevitable FA closer is signed, the MLB pitching staff will be more or less locked in. SP - Steele, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Rea CL - TBD Free Agent SU - Pearson, Hodge MR - Merryweather, Morgan, Miller, Thielbar LR - K. Thompson Keegan probably doesn't have the tightest grip on a roster spot, but the only MiLB options above are Hodge and Morgan, who are VERY unlikely to open the year in the minors. Additions beyond the one expected require cuts. And Iowa's not much easier to crack! This is my assumption for what Iowa looks like SP - Brown, Wicks, Assad, Horton, Birdsell CL - Neely SU - Palencia, Little MR - E. Roberts, Hollowell, R. Martin LR - Poteet, Kilian So that leaves all of Zastryzny, Festa, Bickford, Richards, and Heller (am I missing anybody?) on the outside looking in to even get a spot at Iowa. There are some possible spots to open up (Martin to Tenn feels fair, demote Kilian while he converts to short relief?), but beyond a couple you'd seem to be harming the development of actual prospects. There will be injury, and having them in camp in case they pop isn't without value, but it feels like we're stress testing the adage that you can't have too much pitching.

They might prefer more velo. Yates has an all-universe level splitter but a below average fastball. And at 38 it's unlikely that improves.

Jonny Long practicing at 3B

Yeah I think Caissie's project for early this year at Iowa should be defensive versatility. Get some real 1B reps in, get some DH reps in (there's a mental component to DH a lot of young guys struggle with). If he's playing 6 days a week at Iowa it should be something like 2 days in right, 1 in left, two 2 at first, and one at DH. He needs to be set up to succeed if any of Happ, Tucker, Busch, or Suzuki go on the IL.

Over the last four years Estevez has a 3.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 4.29 xFIP. I'm too lazy to do the math on his xERA right now, but eyeballing it seems to be in line with his FIP. I also tend to look at xFIP first and proceed from there, but Estevez seems pretty likely to have something to him to mitigate his HR/FB numbers. He's not my first choice but he'd likely be a quality closer. The Phillies are *very* smart with pitchers and they made him their big deadline move last summer.

My general reliever pref list from here 1. Kirby Yates - Very good but old 2. David Robertson - Very good but very old 3. Kyle Finnegan - Just okay but the pitch design guys see lots of potential 4. Kenley Jansen - Good but old 5. Carlos Estevez - Good but in line for a multi-year deal 6. Paul Sewald - Bad 2024, pitch models still love him though

The value of Scott over the other FA closers is approximately 1 win. Bregman's not really much better than Hoerner, so the improvement for the team would be whatever Hoerner brought back in trade.