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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah Lugo's basically in the same situation as Stroman a few years back: - The peripherals make it clear he's having a pretty good year rather than the stellar one his ERA would imply - Even at his best his durability/finesse profile doesn't really fit the archetype teams prefer in playoff starters - The player option acts as a poison pill to shred his value Even if you want to be bearish on guys like Alcantara or Brown, Lugo's value is so nominal I'd be shocked if they don't far outstrip him.
  2. Bertz
    The Royals are also horribly desperate for outfield help so the fit goes both ways.
  3. Bertz
    I've noticed Gallagher going every Saturday instead of every six days as well. I wonder if some of these guys that are pitching well and in the process ars piling up innings are getting a set day of the week to subtly conserve their innings.
  4. Bertz
    Honestly a relief. His last two outings have been horrific (7 BB and a HBP in 9 batters) after seemingly righting the ship for like a month prior. Hopefully we can blame this injury.
  5. Bertz
    So it's definitely PCA or Tucker, I don't think anyone else has even a decent argument. PCA has generated the most raw value, Tucker's close behind and has had oodles of clutch. I do think Carson Kelly deserves some love though. Him going Aaron Judge for a month helped this team excel during an extremely difficult part of the schedule. Even with him coming back to earth he's still been IMO one of the biggest stories for this team.
  6. Bertz
    Circling back to this. You can't get too exact this far out, but right now payroll looks like it's about $170M to open next winter. That's ~$75M under the tax line. Lop $10M off for the general wiggle room Jed likes and you're around $65M to spend. Keller's about $18.5 and Bednar will probably be in the $8-10M range. Now we're down to the $35-40M neighborhood. Tucker if we're so lucky would likely eat damn near every dime of that himself. It doesn't look super hard to move money this winter. Alternatively if PTR is going to juice payroll for a year next season has looked like the logical one for a while. But it just should be noted that adding even a medium sized salary like Keller or Alcantara to next year's teams requires some future creativity or us to change some fundamental assumptions around team spend.
  7. Bertz
    Because of the pitchers friendliness of the Southern League his ~.800 OPS is a 137 wRC+. I wonder if we see him go to Iowa and Rojas to Tenn as corresponding moves. Given the calendar in a few weeks right around draft time?
  8. Bertz
    Keller's not a sexy move, but he's a solid pitcher and would help bridge the post 2026 roster cliff. I think you *have* to trade Taillon this winter if you add Keller now, but that shouldn't be that hard (presuming his dong issues are temporary like they were in '23). I also think this team deserves some benefit of the doubt in getting the most out of "boring" pitchers like this. Bednar is the prize though. He is back to being a certified monster of a closer. Adding him and pushing everyone in house and inning earlier really changes the complexion of that group.
  9. Bertz
    This tells me that either: - Fulmer is just on the roster as a warm body to take two innings at some point this series when the bullpen needs length - One of Brown or Horton is going to Iowa for Shota. It's not Colin Rea to the pen
  10. Bertz
    Probably that yeah. Though if Horton or Brown get sent to Iowa he could stick around a bit longer. Hodge seems likely to get a couple more outings at Iowa so Fulmer might have a week+ to try and show something.
  11. Bertz
    It would be great when paired with the return of Shota, but between how uncommon deals are this early, Jed's deliberate pace, and how turkey the standings are for a lot of bubble teams (e.g. Arizona) I'm skeptical. Levine was first on the Luzardo stuff last winter so who knows maybe he's sniffed something out.
  12. Bertz
    Michael Fulmer is back. I expect the fanbase to be totally chill and normal about this
  13. Bertz
    I'm skeptical they make a deal for a SP early, but certainly at 3B if they do anything it's just going to be for a bench bat to add a less terrible alternative to Vidal Brujan and give Shaw a break against some of the tougher righties. Not him for obvious reasons but someone like Miles Mastrobuoni.
  14. Bertz
    Yeah I think in this relatively new world where there's nothing between Complex Leagues and Low A we probably need to afford more grace to guys their first month or two in full season ball than we would have five years ago.
  15. Bertz
    From the Cards' beat writer this morning in the Athletic We'll likely get official word on the rest of the series in the next few hours, but it would be a departure from how they've been operating.
  16. Bertz
    Assuming Gray isn't going on Thursday, this is the hardest pitching matchup this series. That said Liberatore's not especially scary. His swing and miss, hard hit rate, ground all, and barrel rates are all below average. He throws a ton of strikes though, so it's a question of whether it's a night where balls find holes. He's basically turned into the lefty Miles Mikolas.
  17. Bertz
    The Athletic this AM mentioned that the Cardinals have been very diligent about giving their SPs five days of rest, and credit that with much of their surprising success. So they could pitch Gray on Thursday, but it would be a break from what they've been doing all year.
  18. Bertz
    The team scored 11 runs in 15 innings this week against Freddy Peralta, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert.
  19. Bertz
    Looking at roster resource the pitching opponents are finally slowing down. They have us missing Sonny Gray against the Cardinals this week, and missing Hunter Brown against the Astros this weekend. We do get Framber Valdez on Sunday, but otherwise nothing really scary. Although on the flip side I don't know that anyone coming up can really be called bad. A lot of young guys who are mostly just solid at this stage of their career.
  20. Bertz
    Projections are inherently conservative. That's tied for the 5th best in the league with the Tigers, Mets, Mariners, and Astros.
  21. Bertz
    The thing that cracks me up most is the complete inability to consider context. Like "Wrigley is the biggest hitters park in the league when the wind is blowing out and the biggest pitchers park in the league when the wind is blowing in" is a thing you learn on day 3 of becoming a Cubs fan? How has the last month been so flummoxing to so much of this fanbase? And don't even get me started on the lack of ball knowing on display when like, Zack Wheeler has a good day.
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    Wow what a crazy coincidence that since Monday the pitching is struggling and the the offense is hot after it being the total opposite before. Crazy crazy coincidence.
  24. Bertz
    Caissie was very nearly a Marlin this winter already, and Alcantara's likely to be the best SP on the market. You shouldn't get too attached to specific names when thinking about trades, but at the same time if I was drafting potential trades based on likelihood Caissie for Alcantara would be my #1 pick by a mile.
  25. Bertz
    Yesterday the wind was going out a normal amount to left, but screaming out to CF and RF. I believe it's supposed to do the same today. So I think the reason for substitutions is the lack of off says in this part of the schedule, while the "why Brujan" is probably literally just because he's a lefty.
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