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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    On the one hand I'm not feeling any of the high school bats in our range this year On the other hand, the Myrtle Beach lineup has been horrific, so it's hard to argue against the idea that in terms of organizational depth teenage hitters who can actually hit is a pressing area of need.
  2. Bertz
    This would be an extremely stupid game for the Cubs to win so that makes it more or less a lock
  3. Bertz
    A few things IMO #1. Like Muntjack said, the bar is on the floor right now #2. It has definitely gotten harder for hitters to break into MLB than in the past, but that's not to say *nobody* can have early success. It's just now gone from like a 50/50 deal to like a 30/70 deal #3. I see Long's long term role as owning the Turner role on this team. I'm fine pulling the trigger on giving it to him now. "But what if he's bad?" doesn't really move me because the pressure to compete is going to be just as strong next year
  4. Bertz
    Caissie is the most likely prospect to be traded this month by a fairly significant margin
  5. Bertz
    He's still too old for SB but Cam Sisneros just continues to mash
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    I'm curious if Cristian Hernandez makes the jump to Tennessee with Rojas in a few weeks. On the one hand he's doing well at SB but not really dominating in a way that calls for that mid-season promotion. On the other hand he is approaching a calendar year at the level, and I think there is some value to moving guys through the org with a buddy.
  8. Bertz
    I'm actually down for making the Long/Turner swap whenever. Long's had a prolonged slump and worked his way out, which tends to be the last box to check for the Cubs' to move a guy up a level. And Turner's had another month to show its not gonna happen. And letting him hold on to get dong #200 is the kind of good gesture the players see. Turner and Brujan out with Long and Willi Castro in would be a pretty perfect way to tie a bow on the position player group IMO.
  9. Bertz
    Lumpuy is 2/2 with a dong. He's actually been hitting a bit the last few weeks
  10. Bertz
    I think a couple things are true here with Moises - The raw power is pretty firmly average, and at 5'8" that's probably not going anywhere. That said some incremental improvements to his pull rate and GB rate should get him a little more over the fence production. His statcast data isn't that far off of e.g. Josh Naylor - The total offensive production on an age relative to league basis is incredible. He's the 4th youngest player in AAA this year, and yet is rocking a ~85th percentile xwOBA - His contact ability is superb, he looks like he should rock a sub 15% K rate long term So I do think most of his ceiling is riding on him sticking behind the plate. But the floor feels pretty high even as a 1B/DH, as I'm not sure there's more than a couple of bats in the minors who are more likely to be above average MLB hitters.
  11. Bertz
    Nico's a free agent after next season, which lines up more or less exactly with when you'd want to hand Rojas a job if he continues to progress at a good pace. And as much as I'm not wanting to take Shaw out back and shoot him like most of our fanbase, he's hardly done enough for us to consider 3B settled for the foreseeable future.
  12. Bertz
  13. Bertz
    Not even a little true
  14. Bertz
    He's also never thrown 100 innings in a season so comes with the same sort of durability considerations we have with Horton/Brown
  15. Bertz
    There is no reason to trade Rojas. Cash some of those Iowa chips instead.
  16. Bertz
    Really good look at the under the hood stuff for Alcantara. Things look fairly rosie.
  17. Bertz
    The fact of the matter is, because of the expectations around guys repeating their minor league level, Caissie's stock was probably (mildly) down this year until some point in the last week or two. He *needed* to have a stretch like this to justify keeping his status as a top ~50 prospect IMO. Caissie's certainly too good to be used on a rental, but I feel comfortable moving him this month. For instance I'd gladly include Caissie in deals for Griffin Jax or Edward Cabrera. I'd reluctantly include him in a Keller/Bednar deal. And I'm on the fence on a Kris Bubic deal. Ideally we would know what's going to happen with Tucker before we moved Caissie, but with Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros in hand it's not a massive consideration IMO.
  18. Bertz
    Everyone craps on BaseballTradeValues but it does at least help keep this kind of nonsense down
  19. Bertz
    Cam Sisneros continues to rake. With his age he's basically gotta continue racing through the system but sub 10% K rates with seemingly okay power is always worth keeping an eye on
  20. Bertz
    Yeah this feels like either something extremely benign like he got the runs or a hug watch. Because the timing wouldn't seem to line up with an injury at all.
  21. Bertz
    Ummmm do we know why Alcantara was pulled?
  22. Bertz
    This is so weird. Jaxon's last start was 6/20, and it looks like Futures Game Rosters were announced on 6/30. I would think if he got hurt in between he wouldn't have been announced to begin with? But with him being pulled It's hard to imagine anything but injury. Hopefully it's something obnoxiously persistent but not scary, like Hodge's injury earlier in the year.
  23. Bertz
    Probably worth noting that Amaya's breakout started a year ago this week. The anniversary of PCA's breakout is still 3 weeks out. And I'd say the under the hood stuff for Shaw is far less ugly than it was for either of those guys at the same juncture. That's not to say that Shaw will break out this week or this month or ever. But when these things happen they tend to happen really quickly and the reward is immense.
  24. Bertz
    I remember being fairly mad about the Nico pick. There's enough egg on my face there (he's still leading that draft in career WAR) that I refuse to get mad about drafting "boring" guys again.
  25. Bertz
    Nico Hoerner's a free agent in 15 months, Swanson's a 31 year old whose defensive metrics are down YoY, and the Cubs don't have a shortstop prospect worth a damn in AA or AAA.
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