Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Man he must really not want to go to Detroit.
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I'm guessing it's tied to velo. There was a note in, I believe the Athletic, about how the Cubs felt they could get a little more velo out of him. I also saw someone, Brendan Miller maybe, noted that his velo was kind of all over the place last year. Like he was down a full MPH for the year but he had a lot of outings where he was still sitting 95.
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The Athletic: Cubs looking to be "Opportunistic"
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think my preference from where we go here is in this order: 1. Get something done with the Padres. A 3rd playoff caliber SP is basically the only remaining way to significantly juice this roster's win total, and we have some depth to deal from at Iowa. I have zero reservations about having two primo rental players. None. 2. Sign the best complimentary players you can to round out the roster. Can you get Robertson/Canha/Laureano for $25M? I think it's close! Even if you only want to spend $20M and push a bit more money to July you could sign two and skimp on the 3rd (e.g. swap in Stanek for Robertson). 3. Sign Bregman/Flaherty/Alonso - I don't expect these guys to get a 1 year deal, and I'm VERY nervous about adding a potential multi-year deal at $20M+ per year. That basically locks in that in order to extend Tucker Tom needs to raise payroll or Jed needs to move a significant salary. I do not like signing up for that a year in advance. I still vividly remember "Don't worry, we just need to trade Bryant to the Braves and then we can start our offseason." -
Over the last 3 years Statcast has him as a -5 defender at 3B over roughly half a season. I don't think you could count on him to get more than occasional time at 3rd. Similar to Patrick Wisdom last year, you'll be able to count on your fingers and toes the number of times he can play over there without it being a problem. I like Turner too, I think he's a good fit on the roster (I like him a smidge less than Canha), but we should just be clear eyed that he'd be primarily a 1B/DH.
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Kiley McDaniel 23 - Matt Shaw 50 - Moises Ballesteros 64 - Kevin Alcantara 86 - Owen Caissie 97 - Cade Horton Zyhir Hope was 70, Cam Smith 73, Jackson Ferris 93
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While there is always room for potential improvement, after adding Ryan Pressly and Jon Berti over the last week the Cubs' roster is looking reasonably complete. Jed Hoyer's offseason appears far from done however. The Cubs currently sit approximately $34M below the first Luxury Tax level according to Roster Resource, and Tom Ricketts confirmed he expects payroll to end up in that vicinity. Even if the team views the Luxury Tax line as a hard (self imposed) cap, they can add as much as $25M in salary and still leave buffer for mid-season maneuvering. According to a staff report from The Athletic, the Cubs are trying to take full advantage of their current position in the market: This would likely explain why rumors are all over the place right now. The team has been tied to Alex Bregman, David Robertson, and Michael King just in the short time since the Ryan Pressly trade was completed. With the aforementioned payroll flexibility as well as seven players on MLB Pipeline's recent Top 100 Prospect lists, the Cubs can plausibly land any player currently available. So expect additional moves from here, and whether it's genuine interest or another party trying to drum up leverage expect to see the Cubs included in a variety of rumors as well. View full rumor
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While there is always room for potential improvement, after adding Ryan Pressly and Jon Berti over the last week the Cubs' roster is looking reasonably complete. Jed Hoyer's offseason appears far from done however. The Cubs currently sit approximately $34M below the first Luxury Tax level according to Roster Resource, and Tom Ricketts confirmed he expects payroll to end up in that vicinity. Even if the team views the Luxury Tax line as a hard (self imposed) cap, they can add as much as $25M in salary and still leave buffer for mid-season maneuvering. According to a staff report from The Athletic, the Cubs are trying to take full advantage of their current position in the market: This would likely explain why rumors are all over the place right now. The team has been tied to Alex Bregman, David Robertson, and Michael King just in the short time since the Ryan Pressly trade was completed. With the aforementioned payroll flexibility as well as seven players on MLB Pipeline's recent Top 100 Prospect lists, the Cubs can plausibly land any player currently available. So expect additional moves from here, and whether it's genuine interest or another party trying to drum up leverage expect to see the Cubs included in a variety of rumors as well.
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Steamer's utility is in its availability not its accuracy. ZiPS is the gold standard among public systems.
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On top of this, the Cubs' farm currently is basically this Where the car is Iowa. So I don't want Jed to be a drunken sailor in dealing from that stockpile at AAA, but getting a borderline ace and essentially an IOU for a 2026 2nd round pick isn't the worst thing in the world from an organizational health standpoint. In moderation of course.
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The projections like Cease and King pretty equally, but Cease has WAY more track record (including shocking durability for someone who throws as hard as he does) and way better pure stuff. I imagine that impacts trade value to a meaningful degree.
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Festa is the roster casualty
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I suspect when ZiPS does their full run that Dodgers/Braves gap will close a decent amount. Even with the Dodgers adding Sasaki and Teoscar since that run, the IP totals for the rotation in the Fangraphs depth charts are laughably optimistic. That said I do otherwise think that feels right. Braves and Dodgers are the two best teams in the league (probably either league), and we're as good as anyone not in the NL outside of those two. Because of the sorry state of the NL Central we've hopefully got a fairly direct path to a playoff spot.
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King would be exciting and take this offseason from good to great. Even if you don't extend him, you can go into next winter with two QO free agents and basically commit yourself to retaining one of them (obviously Tucker would be top priority). I will say, given the drop-off from Cease to King, plus the presumed inclusion of Suarez, I don't think you can include Brown or Alcantara. I think Preller needs to take back a bit more quantity over quality in this instance. Assad/Wicks/Caissie instead of Brown/Alcantara for example.
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He has said before he thinks Caissie's contact issues are disqualifying. Justin Crawford running GB rates in the 60s and 70s is fine though apparently.
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Nope. Maddux threw 92 when he was young, which by early 90's standards was well above average. Similarly his K rate was 18.9% from 91-01. The league K rate at that time was 16.2%
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Caissie has his share of warts, but I do feel like some prospect fatigue is setting in and he's not getting proper credit for his age relative to league. He was the 10th youngest player to get at least 200 PAs at AAA last year. If he was at AA he'd have still been around 30th. I can't help but wonder if he'd put up a ~160 wRC+ a level lower if he wouldn't be getting more love right now.
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Keith Law: 14 - Matt Shaw 33 - Kevin Alcantara 46 - Moises Ballesteros 74 - Cade Horton No Caissie, which shouldn't surprise as Law's been the low man on Caissie for years. Cam Smith at 43 and Zyhir Hope at 58. No Jackson Ferris.
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A backup 1B feels pretty essential. Even if it's not someone exciting, Ty France for instance, it's the most definitive remaining need for the team. The backup 1B right now on a short term basis is probably Miguel Amaya? For a long term basis it'd be Ballesteros. That's bad, really bad. Carlson is a fun look for a backup CF. Prior to 2024 he even at his worst mauled lefties. He's young enough that you can easily believe last season was an aberration. And if he still sucks oh well by Memorial Day decent chance we're ready to call up Alcantara.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
Bertz replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Kind of wild that this team just punted an entire offseason. A couple outfielders and a couple pitchers and this team is in the same neighborhood as the Cubs and Brewers. Or in the other direction sell Gray and Helsely and you likely bring back some very real talent. Instead they're just sort of idling because of this awkward Mozeliak/Bloom succession plan. -
I would take the 1B. That said there *should* be room for two of these. In that case I'd take the 1B and the reliever. One of Mark Canha/Justin Turner and one of David Robertson/Kyle Finnegan rounds this roster out very nicely. You also can't totally rule out a Bregman or a Flaherty. Though I think at this point I'd take the two complimentary players and just plan on making another big deadline move.
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For Busch, I'm really hoping they have Caissie moonlight at 1st. He should be the injury backup for any of Happ, Suzuki, Busch, or Tucker IMO. On top of that, I'd be floored if they don't add a RHH 1B to the bench. On a short term basis. like finishing out the game Busch is injured in, each of Happ, Tucker, and Amaya have some 1B experience. For PCA I suspect the backup will be one of Brujan/Berti/Canario to open the year. But I suspect the reason they're not sniffing around for a real backup CF is that they want Alcantara to spend a good amount of time on the MLB roster this year and handle that role.
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The Athletic guys said similar:
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Bello is a bit more than I was expecting to give up. Not necessarily talent wise, but that much talent and NOT on the 40 man is a bit more than I expected.
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We haven't seen the financials on Kirby Yates yet right? I suspect all of the old FA old closers come in the $12-15Mish range. Pressly would IMO slot in slightly behind Yates and slightly ahead of Robertson/Jansen if he were a FA. I'd guess the cash isn't more then $1-2M, and if it is it is basically acting to buy the player(s) going back.
