He might have had a HOF caliber career if you exclude his numbers from 1998 on. But well before? Not a chance. Going into the 1996 season he only had 277 HR's on his career. For a power hitter, those aren't HOF numbers. Going into his 1998 he had just 387 HR's. Still not HOF numbers for a power hitter. Well obviously if you take his career numbers at that point they don't stack up. Point is that he had OPS+'s of 164, 134, 130, 143, 175, 224, 137, 200, and 223 all before he went to St. Louis. It's not like he was a middling slugger before he broke the record. I'll agree with that. Like cheapseats and wolf pointed out, HOF voters look at counting numbers and before he hit 70, McGwire didn't have enough to get into the Hall of Fame. But McGwire, when healthy, was one of the most feared sluggers in baseball during his career.