Jason Ross

This offseason is going to be nuts.

Did Imanaga make it to Chicago? I know Koji Uehara posted online he was in Chicago but hadn't seen Imanaga had made his way to the city.

Rogers posted an article today on a few things, and I think it's worth it to take note of a few things from a source : 1. The Cubs seem fairly confident that had the DH been in the NL in 2017 they would have won Ohtani 2. There seems to be a strange air of confidence coming from the Cubs on their current pursuit of Ohtani. Not that Rogers said that, just from the way it's written. Ohtani camp seemingly wants this quiet, so we'll have to read between the lines. Not saying I'm betting on a win here, just...odd? 3. Morel-for-Alonso tidbit dropped as something that could happen 4. Cody Bellinger does not appear to be coming back. Rogers states that the Cubs won't get into bidding wars for FAs (outside of Ohtani) and that one rival GM said "He's as good as gone".

He's listed at 5"7, 195, so I think Glasser is using his listed height. I haven't measured him, but I've read a few places that he could be as tall as 5"10 today and my guess is he weighs more than 197 today, too.

Is he a DH? Is he a catcher? If he hits so well, does it even matter? Next up in our exploration of the Cubs' top-20 prospect list is Moises Ballesteros, the Chicago Cubs' 2023 MiLB Hitter of the Year. Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK 2023 Season Review Moises Ballesteros, or "Big Mo," does not look like your typical professional baseball player. Listed as 5'7", 197 lbs on the Tennessee Smokies website, these numbers are outdated. Frankly, he looks more like he belongs on the Chicago Bears as a fullback than he does behind the plate of a Double-A baseball team. Looks can be deceiving, as Ballesteros has proved throughout his MiLB career to date, and he has earned every bit of being named the Cubs MiLB Hitter of the Year in 2023. Ballesteros has received aggressive promotions each year from the Cubs. 2022 saw the 19-year-old catcher spend more than a month in Myrtle Beach at the end of the season, posting a rather impressive 109 wRC+. Starting in 2023, "improvement" was the name of the game, as he lowered his strikeout rate to a miniscule 13%, increased his walk rate, ISO, batting average, on base, slugging, and finished with a 142 wRC+ in a further 56 games. Earning a promotion, "Big Mo" saw 56 games in South Bend that season. While the wRC+ was "only" a 128, this remains incredibly impressive for any catcher, let alone one who couldn't legally buy a beer. Showing impressive bat-to-ball skills, a mature approach allowed him to settle in comfortably despite the further increase in competition. While only hitting six home runs, he did swat 15 doubles during his time, suggesting that with maturity and growth, there is more power in the bat to come. For most players, a mid-season bump would be the only promotion earned, but for many of South Bend's best hitters (James Triantos, Kevin Alcantara, and Matt Shaw), they would get a chance to help AA Tennessee during their playoff run. Despite only posting a 40 wRC+ in 22 PAs, the time spent in Tennessee should suggest where Ballesteros will start in 2024, and he still showed that the impressive bat-to-ball skills were continuing to translate, striking out only three times in a limited run. Defensively, Ballesteros remains a work in progress, but there was some improvement along the way. His receiving skills are getting better and better. While still a bit off from the Major League team, Craig Counsell's hiring should be music to Mo, as Counsell's Brewers team has been the absolute best at taking mediocre framing catchers like Yasmani Grandal, Omar Narvaez and William Contreras and turning them into framing mavens. Counsell may bring over staff who can help the system squeeze the most out of all the catchers, top to bottom. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA The path ahead for Moises Ballesteros lies in Tennessee in 2024. Turning 21 midway through the season, he will be among the youngest hitters in Tennessee. I'm bullish on the bat, regardless of his level. Strong plate approaches are one of the best indicators an MiLB hitter can have for continued success, and you argue his plate approach is the best in the Cubs' system. If there's some room to grow offensively, it's turning those doubles into home runs. The questions for Mo will be the body and the defense. Alejandro Kirk is breaking molds with Toronto about what a catcher should and shouldn't look like, so there is some precedent for awkwardly shaped humans succeeding at that level. Thankfully, the bat is good enough here that a move to first basemen or as a designated hitter won't be the worst thing. This goes back to the offensive "grow"; however, the path to being a successful MLB 1B or DH is much more difficult, and those doubles will have to turn into home runs for that to be a viable path. Regardless, he's one of the most exciting hitters to follow in the Cubs system, and his outlook is quite bright. View full article

I don't think we should worry a lot about his HR/.FB% in under 35 innings yet. He gave up 4 home runs over his last two starts of the season, despite giving up just a single home run in his first 5. His worst start as a major leaguer was his last one, and it's likely that exhaustion was beginning to set in; he didn't make it out of the second. Wicks was on 6 days rest and hadn't gone 5+ innings all year prior to the MLB bump where he went 6+ three separate occasions. It shouldn't be shocking that his barrel% jumped massively his last two starts as well. That last start alone saw him equal his strikes to his ball, and the strikes he threw were not in good spots. I think the kid was probably running on some fumes. When I say he "should" keep the ball in the ballpark, I'm speaking of the repertoire and his batted ball data so far. He throws a heavy dose of fastballs on the hand, changeups at the knees and curveballs. His high GB% should translate to MLB action (GB% has high correlation from AAA to MLB) and his 46.8% GB% in a full season would mark him 10th in the MLB for qualified hitters if he maintained it all season (which, unless his command died, is around what we should expect). We need more savant data before we can make definitives, but in limited time he showed impressive abilities for a rookie to miss barrels, and limit hard hits too. There's still a decent spread on what we can expect him to become. But I think he's got the profile of a pitcher who likely limits HR's, hard hits, and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground. That's FIP-beater profile stuff. One of the pitchers who's 2023 profile was most similar to Wicks? Well, It's Mr, Kyle Hendricks with a .85, the second closest pitcher to Wicks. We need more data before he is one, but he's got the pre-reqs.

I tend to be pretty hesitant to rely much on xData, as there's plenty of weird tidbits and fiddly nonsense in them. That said, just the savant data alone, the quality of contact and the BABIP on Bellinger's 2 strike approach...I'm concerned with Bellinger moving forward. I think some of that is how he handles 2 strikes he's going to get some BABIP luck. But there's also too much for me to think it can continue. Extreme outlier data, like Belli's 2-strike success last year is generally very hard to repeat. Especially if the plan is for Bellinger to spend most of his contract at 1b, a position far more dependent on his bat than CF, I remain fairly luke warm on the prospect of a long term Bellinger contract. Not entirely out, mind you, but there are players I'd much prefer the Cubs spend their money on first.

My guess is if Morel isn't used to get Soto, he'd be used to replace Wicks via a trade. Let's put it this way: if the Cubs traded Wicks to the Padres for Soto, then Morel to the Mariners to get Woo...the Cubs come out ahead. They might be more interested in Brown. They could be more interested in Wicks. I think we want them to be more interested in Brown today because he impacts the Cubs less today, but a year from today we could sing another song. We'll have to see what Brown becomes. He has legit ace-stuff with spotty fastball command that could get ironed out or not.

I'd trade Wicks. I like Wicks. Wicks has FIP-beater profile. He's also not so good you skip on a 25 year old 150 wRC+ hitter, even if it's for a year. His whiff rate is pretty unimpressive, and there's work to do. He can be as good as Jon Lester-lite IMO but as was suggested by @Bertz he could be as ho-hum as Kyle Freeland, too. Juan Soto is horsefeathers Juan Soto. PCA and Horton are the two guys who could be in a Soto trade that I would say "no" to.

Most recent rumors have been centered on young, MLB-ready (or close) pitching for the Padres desires in a Soto trade, so that might be why he's saying that. If the Padres are looking for young arms, then Morel might not interest them as much as Levine thought. With that said, there's a report today from Heyman that the Cubs are looking for multiple SP's. So that could be a situation and an indicator that someone like Wicks/Assad is in a Padres-Soto deal. So like Brown-Canario-Assad or something. Or Wicks+ something.

In that vein, if there's something to give the Cubs credit here, they went about signing Seiya Suzuki in an incredibly quiet way. If Suzuki want's quiet, the Cubs under Hoyer have proven capable of that.

Wicks is going to be an underrated prospect, and likely, an underrated MLB pitcher. He's not a "sexy" pitcher. His fastball is, fine, but not overpowering, averaging just under 92mph. His best secondary pitch is a changeup, which doesn't move like a sexy slider or a big looping curve ball. He gets a lot of ground balls, and ground ball pitchers don't get to do a groundball strut like strikeout pitchers get to do. He's kind of goofy looking with the googles. But he's got a lot of the tools to be your typical "FIP-beater". He's going to get those ground balls and keep the ball in the ballpark with a changeup-curveball heavy load. He's a bulldog on the mound, he doesn't let his lower velo fastball hold him back; he throws it in on RHP hands (more ground balls!). I think he's a nice pitcher. He's not full-on-Hendricks, but there's some similarities. He's not full on Jon Lester, but there's some similarities there too, more in demeanor than anything. I think his upside sits as a solid #3 type. And I'll admit too; I underrated him on draft day. I'll brag all day about how I liked Horton and Caissie, but it's on me to admit I hated Jordan Wicks and I'm glad I was an idiot. Wicks is a good pitcher.

We'll just have to interpret what we're seeing differently, then. And for the record: when I say they "baby" their arms, I don't mean it as a negative. Quite the opposite...I think the Cubs have done a great job of understanding modern pitchers in making sure they don't throw innings that are superfluous to their development.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alexander-canario/22842/stats?position=DH/OF Data from 2023 is accurate. Looks like I accidentally read his CPX K% for AAA. Whoops! Good catch there. I think we agree on his trade value, even if we have a bit of a different view on Canario. Canario is better than Nelson (probably by a standard deviation), I'd be bummed to see the Cubs send him away for a project RHP out of the BP. I do think his value lies as the 2nd piece in a bigger trade (like for Soto, a controllable SP, etc...) or for a much better RP (a controllable leverage-type).

I can see where the confusion came than as for me "next year" is still 2024. I agree that the Cubs didn't commit to him long (though, upon a check, I don't see myself stating that). I agree, perhaps in the offseason after the 2024 season the Cubs may move Hoerner if they would rather go with Shaw. But that probably won't change where the Cubs play Shaw in the summer of 2024, either. I don't think he'll only play 3b in the MiLB next year, and expect he'll play some at second and some at third. But his pathway to playtime in 2024 is almost assuredly third. 2025 may prove to be different.

The Cubs do have internal limits, I'm about 100% on this. Even using Gallardo's season you mentioned...he went over 5 IP...once. 7 times he left after the 5th. Look at Horton's IP, last year. Consistently 4 until June. Then, 5IP or 4IP. Regardless of PC. Wicks? Not over 5 once (despite him going well over 5 a few times in the MLB). Birdsell went 5 or less in every start except one. Ben Brown made 6 twice. But those are kind of the only examples I can find of truly MLB upside guys going over 5. I really don't think it's an accident we see the cut off at 5 for MiLB arms and there's a pretty definite pattern org wide. Basically, guys with MLB upside just don't go more than 5 IP in the Cubs system outside of rare examples. I do know there's a "pitch limit" per inning which is around 30. We see guys get yanked consistently across the org on this one. Struggle in the first with walks, and you won't get any more. They definitely watch this which also makes me feel the 5IP thing is real. I think the Cubs have more than just innings limits. I do think they do well with programs, conditioning, and the like. But I think their underuse of the arms in the MiLB leading up to the MLB is a part of the equation, too. It's a full spectrum attempt to save pitchers from injury, IMO.

AAA has been filled more and more with talent. But actually, the guys I am worried about exploiting approach issues are the guys who have existed in MLB organizations because they're crafty, hard workers, who win on the margins. That's who beats guys with approach. I think Matt Shaw can hit stuff. What I don't know is if Matt Shaw can learn how to decide when to swing. Just because it's a strike doesn't mean you need to swing. Just because it's 1-0 doesn't mean you have to swing. Matt Shaw has to learn what a good strike is. It's why I think AAA is where he'll face that issue. It's why someone like Davis has struggled in AAA to a large degree. There's velo in AA, but guys in AAA know how to get the fastball up at the hands. Their command is better. They are more developed.

I don' believe the Cubs are trading Nico Hoerner anytime shortly, and certainly not in the middle of next season. The Cubs are seemingly aiming high on their wishlist this offseason, and I'm getting a feeling that they're at least looking to be good, and not just "maybe good". Teams who are looking to be good rarely trade controllable assets who put up 3+ fWAR mid-season. The team also, seemingly, adores middle-field defense, and Hoerner shines there. I can see an argument that the Cubs may need to make choices next offseason, but right now, the Cubs aren't acting like a team who will be dealing him in July. That leaves 3b. The Cubs have had recent success with Madrigal to 3b, and Matt Shaw is athletic enough to handle the position in theory. How the translation would work is not something I can predict outside of suggestion, but we do know that upon reaching Tennessee, Shaw starting getting time at 3b. I don't think it's a coincidence. The path to playing time with the Cubs right now goes through 3b, not 2b. An injury to Nico Hoerner can change the math here. Lots of variables. But I do think Shaw would be on a track to play 3b moreso than a track to play 2b in 2024.

Yeah I tend to sit on the fence with how quick Shaw will promote. I don't think he'll struggle in Tennessee, personally and expect he won't stick there long, either. I'm guessing if things go well and he remains healthy, that he'll make his debut in Iowa by early-mid-May (the Cubs like to move some pitchers around in early May, and I could see him being apart of this type of movement). Iowa will be the kicker for his approach questions. I think there is a difference in the PCA and the Matt Shaw equations, however, which changes the timeline. PCA had Cody Bellinger and a hot Mike Tauchmann to contend with. I'm not sure Matt Shaw is going to have that contention. Madrigal doesn't have a "get super hot" profile to him (and even when he's "hot" it's likely a lot of ugly hits) and Patrick Wisdom tends to struggle if given bulk-work (he seemed to do much better with curated and planned PA's in the 2nd half of last year versus his "Babe Ruth for 1 week, useless for 2 months" version). I think Shaw's biggest contention may come from BJ Murray and not the Cubs current MLB roster. In that vein, Matt Shaw on a "Kyle Schwarber" type of a route to the MLB, where he saw no more than 58 games at any level, promoted in early July for the playoff push, seems pretty possible. All of that changes if the Cubs bring in a player capable of filling 3b. To a lesser degree, Jeimer Candelario could fill the "Cody Bellinger" roll of "could play one position or another" if they brought him back. But I've got a sneaking feeling the Cubs won't be adding much to 3b in FA or via trade currently.

Good thing with the Cubs, and *knock on wood*, is that they baby their MilB arms, hard. There plenty of limits for pitchers to hit and they yank them pretty hard. Throw more than ~30 some pitches in an inning? You're done. Throw 5 IP? Hit the shower. I know many people don't like this style and would prefer arms to go longer, but the Cubs have generally avoided major injuries throughout their system and I think the way they handle their arms is part of it. Would it be cool to see guys all ready to go 6+? Maybe, But I'd rather have an arm ready to throw 5 IP than missing the next 18 months because of TJS.

I'll give Madrigal some credit for a minute: regardless of motion/etc, Madrigal put in hard work over the offseason and did something I thought was comical; he became an above average fielding 3b. He increased his arm strength into the 46%, he posted elite OAA range and finished with a +8 DRS (which adds arm into the equation). It's 500+ innings and it's not enough data to make definitive statements...but if he can be that kind of a defensive 3b...I'm both happily shocked and glad to be wrong.

Doubt it. Unlike last year, the Cubs don't really have a group of 40-man choices to make. Perlaza elected for FA, Vazquez was added, the rest are either okay to be picked, or highly unlikely to be picked. Cubs won't add-40 men guys with the offseason I (think/ihope) they'll have to eat spots.

When the 2022 draft concluded, many were left a little bummed out with the Cubs selection of Cade Horton at the top of the draft. But Horton's selection allowed the Cubs enough money to get Jackson Ferris. How did Ferris' first season turn out? Image courtesy of Jackson Ferris 2023 Season Review Jackson Ferris entered the 2022 draft with enough hype and helium that some mocked him for going to teams in the late first round. As Ferris "slid" down the board, it became more apparent that it was because a team higher in the draft had saved just enough slot money in their war chest to get the prized pitcher to fall to them in the second. That team was the Chicago Cubs. A left-handed pitcher who already stood 6'4", there was lots of projection in Ferris' body. It was easy to look at the lanky lefty on draft day and assume a team could unlock some added velocity, work with his breaking pitches, and create a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation style stuff on the backend. Part of the issue, however, lay in the mechanics. A bit of "funk" comes with this kind of a pick, and learning how to create consistency was going to be part of the problem. 2023 saw the Cubs somewhat aggressively pushing Ferris to Myrtle Beach. One of the top-lefties in the last class, this was aggressive, but probably where he belonged (and did he show he belonged!). As discussed previously, Myrtle Beach is a good place for pitchers in general, but it takes work for a 19-year-old pitcher at any level. It was clear, however, that the left-handed hurler would be good from his first turn on the mound, striking out seven and walking only one over three shutout innings. This foreshadowed things to come, as Ferris would finish striking out well over a hitter per inning throughout his 56 innings. More impressively, he surrendered only a single home run all season (and it took until August), likely due to his strong ground ball rate. The season wasn't all perfect peaches and rainbows for Ferris, as he saw a high walk rate of five hitters per nine innings pitched. There was a 20-inning stretch between July 26th and August 31st (his penultimate start), which saw the pitcher walk 17 hitters across just 20 innings. This downside comes with a pitcher with a lot of "funk" in his delivery. It's also what comes with the territory of a 19-year-old kid making his first foray into professional baseball. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA I fully expect the Cubs will give Jackson Ferris the bump to South Bend. Regardless of the walk rate, 2023 was a wonderful season for the young arm. Ferris is just too good for low-A, and his struggles are more with himself than with kids at that level. South Bend is not so pitcher-friendly and should give another level of competition. As we move forward, I expect the Cubs to work specifically on adding velocity and working on his mechanics. Over the last few years, few organizations have done a better job unlocking pitcher's velocity like the Chicago Cubs, so this is likely a place of emphasis. Standing well over six feet tall, Ferris offers tons of extension on top of his impressive velocity (sitting 92-95 mph usually and the ability to touch a few mph higher). If the Cubs can coax this average up a little to the 94-96 mph range, they'll have an arm around the top of the leaderboard for left-handed starting pitchers league-wide. The mechanics will be the biggest sticking point. The good thing about a "funky" delivery is that it can keep hitters uncomfortable in the box and makes pitch-tracking harder. However, this comes at the cost of consistency, and working on ensuring that the consistency improves will likely be important moving forward. Jackson's stuff is good enough to stand on its own, so the Cubs may want to clean up his delivery a bit. Regarding an ETA, we're still a few years off from seeing Jackson Ferris in Chicago. A full year across levels in South Bend and Tennessee is still lying in front of him, but he seems like the kind of arm who could be a quick mover if he can hone his control. There's legitimate top-of-the-rotation stuff and ceiling in Ferris's arm. With all starters comes every caveat of "Can he stay healthy?" so there will be a bit of luck involved here, too. Overall, he's a name that could pop up as a top-100 name in mid-2024, and by the end of the season, he could have the kind of stuff to force his way near the top 50. View full article