Jason Ross

Yeah, when it comes down to it, sometimes you can do the best sales pitch on the planet, but it's just not what someone wants to hear. It sounds like the Cubs are really, honestly, and earnestly in this. You don't make the final-4 over teams like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Red Sox if you're not in it to legitimately win it. It means you're clearly offering the right amount of money to get a seat at that table, and the right amount of everything else. I won't blame anyone if the Cubs lose out now. If they were playing poverty franchise, if they couldn't even get a seat at the table, if they tried one of the "we know you want a 12 year deal, but what about a 5 year deal with opt outs!" type thing...I think legitimately questioning them would be fair. But I think they've at least earned the benefit of the doubt this time on their effort. None of this is to say I'll be happy if they lose and are a bridesmaid, that they can pack in the rest of the offseason and say "well we tried" only that I'd understand that at least this time they did their best.

I'm pretty much in full-agreement with @Transmogrified Tigerand @Bertzhere. I don't think Montgomery is the worst player, or the worst outcome, but represents much of what I hope the Cubs stop doing; which is targeting the safer, less impactful market (regardless of his price tag) nearly exclusively. What the Cubs need, even if it comes with a bit of risk, are some upper echelon, impact talents on the team.

I don't think anyone here wants Juan Soto because they can "get a great player for cheap", and I certainly don't want that. I want the Cubs to get great players and Juan Soto is one. I would also very much advocate the Cubs to engage Juan Soto in legitimate extension talks during the season, and after the season if he is dead set on making his way to the free agent market in any event the Cubs acquire him. This isn't a case of "hey, it'd be great to get a good player for less" but "this great player is available and I think the Cubs should be acquiring those types". I also don't think the Cubs would have "one foot out" of the Shohei Ohtani door by also working on secondary avenues to acquire high impact players. I would not expect the Ohtani camp being offended if the Cubs were, simultaneously engaged with the Padres (a team who almost assuredly won't sell Soto until Ohtani makes a decision) nor would I expect the Cubs should be just sitting there and ho-humming until Ohtani makes a choice.

I think it's likely. The Cubs basically pulled the wool over everyone's eyes on Counsell. Did the same with Seiya Suzuki. I loved Seiya that offseason and I had gotten pretty pessimistic that the Cubs weren't in at all (with how little they were even mentioned) only to be incredibly shocked to see them having locked him up. When the Cubs move quietly, they move quietly.

I'd say his slight pessimism should be considered more than other's. But it really, to me, feels like even Rogers right now is likely being left out in the lurch (thus the hemming of probably and felt, in the tweet). I think if the Cubs are super serious here, they're not even telling Rogers.

He's a blowhard. But he's been on it since the Epstein regime took over. He was, for example, all over Jason Heyward too. In terms of connections, he's probably been the most consistently connected Cub beat reporter since like, 2013. I also feel like he can be a bit of a mouthpiece for the team, as well (likely why he's connected), and that, in turn, makes him a blowhard.

Yeah, there seems to be a very good amount of control teams have here. Why I remain pretty optimistic on the Cubs shots. The less we hear connecting them, the more they're remaining involved.

Sounds like that's the case. Seems like there's some truth to him not wanting the media circus at the winter meetings. So teams meet with him in LA on Saturday, Ohtani can make his choice at home on Sunday or Monday and then he can continue to stay away from the WM madness. Hopefully while he's making his choice he can call a few great moving companies to help him box things up to find a cool place in Chicago...

It's high time for the Cubs to be in on good players regardless of their control. Soto is under control for one year, but again, this is reflective in the cost of acquisition as well. I think the Cubs should be interested in other players who have one year of control as well. I would also argue Juan Soto is clearly available. The only people saying he's not has basically been San Diego (and likely to retain control). Most in the industry are firmly on the "he'll be traded" camp. And do we know we have at least talked to the Padres? Levine and Cermani said we were interested, but Rogers seems to have a different opinion. If anything, Rogers is pretty connected to the Cubs, while Cermani has broken a trade or two, and Levine, who has fallen off over the last decade, likely lag behind in terms of "current connections". Regardless a lot of this is up for interpretation, and none of it is fact. So if the Cubs have engaged with the Padres on Soto, I'd be happy. I think the Cubs are in a situation where they need to be more aggressive in acquiring the top talents available. If the Cubs are not involved in Soto, in the way that Brett Taylor interpreted Rogers words, then I would be concerned to a degree on their offseason plans. That doesn't mean I think the offseason is dead, but that perhaps the Cubs won't be acquiring the type of player I believe they should be targeting. I'm not in any way suggesting the Cubs must sell the farm for a single year of Juan Soto, but it's the type of a trade I firmly believe the Cubs should be very much around. I'm happy the Cubs seemingly are doing the right things to attempt to acquire Shohei Ohtani. That's the right thing to do. But sometimes you do everything you can (realistically) and in the end and have it not work out. They should be prepared for that, and I think part of that is making sure you're involved in Juan Soto as well.

My concern is not the Plan A vs Plan B but that Rogers made it seem (at least per Taylor) was that Soto wasn't Plan anything. Soto wasn't going to be dealt before Ohtani, but it'd likely be better for the Cubs to be engaging here the entire time instead of coming in hot if they miss Ohtani. I'm all for Ohtani as the first option (all in on it), but hearing the Cubs may not be interested on the Soto front at all (if, again, Taylor's interpretation is correct) would not be the best thing to hear coming from the Cubs, either.

I'm not even sure he's worried about being wrong. I think this entire process is really that secretive. The feeling I get here is that everyone is really that in the dark. Every team is being that quiet and leaks are that impossible. It's all "feelings" and "probablys" because they have such little actual information. Obviously I don't know myself anything, but I really think everyone is going to be surprised to some degree (either the timing, the announcement, the team, the number...) in some way when it finally hits. Including people who usually have a line on these things.

Feels like the type of speculation we've seen. "Probably" and "felt". Seems cut from the same cloth as the Olney stuff before. Fair assumptions that the Dodgers are the easy choice, but without concrete knowledge of it.

I think that's a fair response. But I also think there's a lot of latitude between high and zero. Like, medium would fit both criteria. I do think it would be a bit of a surprise, as I think many have assumed "Ohtani + Dodgers" is a clear and forgone conclusion. I also think the Angels being a choice originally was a surprise. I certainly don't expect Ohtani to come to the Cubs. But I'll remain optimistic that it's realistic until he doesn't, as well.

I'd normally agree with this, and while I didn't hear the interview, Taylor certainly made it seem like it wasn't a "Well we'll just cycle back to Soto" thing. It very well may end up that way, Taylor could be interpreting things wrong...who knows. But still, I'd rather not be hearing it's like that, than hearing the Cubs are on all fronts looking to add truly impactful talents.

I would say we know very little about what Ohtani wants. It seems clear he wants to win. It seems like a four team race, maybe five if San Francisco is in. And it's reportedly not necessarily just a geographical decision. Past that...lots of speculation. It's a weird free agent experience.

Jeff Passan on Yamamoto: "the 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who's who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix."

Jeff Passan on Ohtani this AM: "The Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, who were among the initial group of suitors, have turned their attention to other players, sources said.” "Among those confirmed by sources to be still in the bidding: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Angels. The San Francisco Giants have long had a fondness for Ohtani, though where they stand in these sweepstakes is unknown."

I think he has a far more stable foundation that Hamilton. There's questions on Pete Crow-Armstrong's total bat, but his offensive ability right now is at least a standard deviation better than Hamilton (and that's being cautious on the downside. If PCA is ~95 wRC+ hitter, or a league average center fielder at the plate, he'd be much better of a hitter, and if he's better then that...well you can see where I'm going), who is a career 66 wRC+ hitter, has 24 career home runs (a number Pete Crow-Armstrong could legitimately match in a year), and his best season was that of a 78 wRC+. I don't think PCA will add as much on the bases (though, still could be a terror), but overall, think he's a far more complete baseball player.

I'd prefer the Cubs to be kicking the tires here regardless of his free agency status, personally. Juan Soto is a great baseball player and the Cubs need great baseball players. It's true, he's only controlled for a year, but that also should be reflected in acquisition cost. There's certainly a line where I wouldn't cross on Soto, but if the Cubs miss out on Ohtani, they should probably be checking out this one. At least from my point of view There just isn't any one else in free agency who is so good (outside of the unicorn, of course) that I'd pass on a chance at the impact Soto can have. With the way Brett explained Rogers' report, it sounds less like Soto is plan 1b and more like it's not on the cards. Which, I'm just not sure if I'm all that excited about. Maybe it reflects their confidence in Ohtani and this is all moot.

I would guess where there is a will, there is a way. Perhaps Maquee sells their international broadcast rights to a Japanese broadcasting company? So while I can't really say how these things work...I would bet my ass that it does.

I would really hope not. Lots of offseason to go, so I'm going to do my best not to panic after this. Hell, we might get Ohtani and everything will be awesome! Right?! Right...

Yeah, exactly how I feel about that. It'd be one thing if it was like Matt Spiegel or Dave Kaplan reporting this. It's another to hear from Rogers. Even more disappointing that it doesn't appear to be because of their pursuit of Ohtani, which makes me a *bit* worried about their chances of landing those big time bats they really need. If they eggs are in the Ohtani basket, that's still an uphill battle. There aren't many other big hitters out there. I'd be pretty bummed, ultimately, with like a Matt Chapman / Ryhs Hoskins toe-the-line offseason, for example.

I don't like hearing that about Soto.

Yep! Everyone's guessing. Ohtani is incredibly secretive here. Teams have seemingly been told not to leak anything. Journalists are seemingly not leaking anything (and I have to think a few people out there know something. There's no such thing as a full secret). I've been telling myself here for a bit...until someone like Passan/Rosenthal releases this one not to worry about what we see from other accounts because it's got to be just speculation. Maybe if we saw multiple locals (Levine + Rogers) "break" it, than maybe I'd be willing to believe it...but I don't think they'll know first.

Conveniently, that screengrab on the tweet leaves out the next paragraph, which I think clarifies his position: "I still think the Dodgers are going to wind up being the fit for him, he said. "They're in a position of how they handled their payroll where they can offer him a lot of money and he'd be teamed with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, so he'd have a lot of cover" Without that quote, it makes it seem like Olney knows he's picked the Dodgers. With that quote, it's clear he's speculating it's the Dodgers. I still think the Dodgers have to be considered the favorites. They're a great team in the city he's already in. But I think Olney is doing a lot of what most are doing right now; they're guessing.