Jason Ross

It feels like we're moving some goal posts here. It's changed from "he didn't meet expectations" to "I don't see the skillset of a first division starter", both of which I disagree on, but for different reasons. You remain overly hung up, for my tastes, on GB% and FB%. I don't see any major concerns here. Tweaks are likely to come, and I expect these things such as EV and LA are generally tied to the same thing with his hyper-aggressivity. These seem like minor symptoms to date of the underlying issue. Being a bit more choosey will place him in better counts, create more walks, and allow him to put more damage on pitches. I think it all comes back to the same thing...Matt Shaw has plus contact, plus power but to really get the most out of these skills needs to learn a little bit better of an approach. I don't think it's fair to expect a college hitter to have fixed these things over the course of a 170 PA MiLB stint. Which is why it comes back to "do I see an MLB first division start's skillset?" and that's an easy "yes". His skillset is that of a 55 grade hit tool, a 55 grade power tool (these are more averages, as others will be a deviation above or below here and there) with 45 grade defense and a 50 grade athleticism. That's what first division starters look like. He may not be a superstar, but he doesn't have to be to be a first division starter. I also see the flaws in the skillset, so those grades are the "what he can be" not "what he is today" (if he was that today he'd be in the MLB). But if our line for "what makes a first division starter and not" is "is imperfect today" than I think we're being rather unfair, because every prospect except truly generational talents have pitfalls and weaknesses that needed ironed out along the way. They needed to refine something, much like Shaw does. Shaw may never fix those weaknesses, refine those edges, but the skillset remains.

Ah horsefeathers. You're right. Stupid horsefeathers new CBA with their new rules. Either way, still love a 1 year Glasnow move.

When Cade Horton was drafted seventh overall in 2022 by the Chicago Cubs, many fans questioned the Cubs' choice. A year later, arguing that this is anything short of a "best-case scenario" is hard. Just where do we go from here with the fireballing right-handed pitcher? And when might we see him taking the mound in Chicago? Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK 2023 Season Review Entering draft night 2022, rumors swirled that the Cubs would likely draft a hitter. Some believed second baseman Temarr Johnson could float his way down to the seventh pick, others like college sluggers like Jacob Berry or Brooks Lee, and there were possibilities of the Cubs going catcher with Kevin Parada. It was only an hour before the draft that it was suggested a team within the top 10 was looking into Oklahoma right-handed starting pitcher Cade Horton. When it was the Cubs' turn to make their selection (with Brooks Lee and Kevin Parada still on the board), it became apparent just who that team was. To say opinions on the pick were initially "mixed" would have been an understatement. Statistically, it would be easy to be underwhelmed with the college junior's numbers. With just 53 innings under his college belt and an ERA nearing 5.00, Horton being a top 10 pick seems curious. Where Horton came into his own was his last few starts of the season, as Horton showed at the College World Series, striking out a record 13 Notre Dame hitters, which put his name on the map. Displaying a new slider, the power righty became interesting. Many were wary that the Cubs were buying into the hype and less the pitcher, though, with such a limited track record, and it coming at the very end of the season. Entering 2023, Horton curiously started in Myrtle Beach, their low-A affiliate. This was somewhat odd for a first-round selection, but it was reported that the Cubs were just looking after his arm, as Horton was only a little over a year removed from rehabbing Tommy John. Myrtle Beach represented a more welcoming early-season climate, but the former Sooner was not long for low-A. Striking out five in just over two innings, Horton started fast. By May 10th, he was in South Bend. Despite his first start with the South Bend Cubs being arguably his worst start of the season (six earned runs, three home runs surrendered, in under four innings), Horton again made quick work of the league. At one point, in a 13-inning span from May 24th through June 7th, Horton struck out an astronomical 27 hitters in 13 innings while walking one. The righty would make 11 starts in South Bend before the Cubs again decided that his 12.45 K/9 and 3.83 (2.57 FIP) were just too good for the level, promoting him to Tennessee. Upon reaching the Smokies and AA, it wasn't long before it was clear he was also their best arm. In 27 innings, once again, Horton dominated. Striking out ten hitters per nine innings and with a 1.33 ERA, Horton started the two most important games of the season for Tennessee: their first playoff game and the title clincher. It was clear that with a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s and flashes 98mph, Horton's velocity wasn't an issue. We also knew about the slider: it's good. It was nice to see that Horton continued working on the changeup. While not a pitch he used often, it was a pitch he began to throw more and more as the season went along, specifically against left-handed hitters. Overall, the goateed pitcher struck out 117 hitters, walked just 27, and had a 2.65 ERA throughout 88 innings and 21 starts. It should be no shock that he was eventually named the 2023 Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year. There wasn't anyone else who was particularly close. Circling back to draft day, a lot of credit should go to Cubs area scout Ty Nichols on being high enough on Horton to suggest him in the 2022 draft. While fans may have only have seen the late season hype stemming from his scintillating College World Series starts, it was Nichols who had been in on Horton since his high school days (coming across him while scouting former first round pick Ed Howard). Cade Horton deserves all the awards he earned from his 2023 season, but I'd be remiss if Nichols didn't get mentioned for being the guy who found and lobbied for the MiLB Pitcher of the Year, too. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA There is no debate about how good of a season Cade Horton had, and there's little doubt that the Cubs made the right choices in the 2023 draft. Other players have had good starts, but Horton is behind Jackson Holliday as having the best starts of the entire field so far. Horton exceeded almost any "best case" for 2023 and allowed the Cubs to draft fellow-top-10 prospect Jackson Ferris. Does it get any better than 1-2 punch in the draft than these two? None of this should suggest the pitcher is perfect today. The moxie and the mound presence the first-year professional showed was special. Unlike other pitchers I've seen, Cade Horton flat-out-dominates hitters. He does not care about you and will throw his fastball down the pipe, asking you to do something about it. He can get away with that against hitters in lower levels, but it's going to be something he can't do at higher ones. It's not so much a command/control thing but a mentality he has. Being a bulldog is great, but you have to know your limits, too. I'd also like him to continue refining the pitch mix and the changeup. His fastball-slider combination is reminiscent of Spencer Strider. You could give him a 70 grade on his fastball and slider if you wanted to, and I don't think you'd sound insane. While Strider has also developed a changeup on the job, it'd be nice if Horton could dial that pitch in just a little more before he makes his debut. It's likely to be a place to work this offseason. The good news? There's a lot of data out there that suggests he could have a third plus pitch in his arsenal sooner rather than later. The question I've been debating for a while is, "When does Cade Horton make his debut in Chicago?" the answer might surprise you; my hot take of the offseason is that he will debut before May ends. That's an incredible timeline, but I think that highly of him. I think he's close to being ready now, and I'm not alone. Byran Smith, formerly of Bleacher Nation, thinks similarly. There isn't much more here to work on. A little tweaking. A little refining. But his fastball-slider combo plays now, and a little extra work with the changeup should give him enough of a mix to attack right-handed hitters and left alike. Someone will get hurt, and Cade Horton will get a chance to make a start. Based on what I've seen, I have a feeling Horton will impress enough that he does not go back down. I reserve this for few prospects, but I genuinely believe Cade Horton is a special talent. He's not generational, but he is special. This is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had for a while, and dare I say, since Mark Prior. View full article

I kind of love Glasnow on a one year deal. For his Lux tax, he's only $15m. It's a way for the Cubs to continue to play "woe is me" with the LT levels, but still get an arm that is capable of being an absolute terror when on the mound. Yeah, he's injury prone, but you don't need him for 7 years, you need him for one year. He threw 120 innings last year. If you get 120 innings out of him this year, well that's a 3.2 fWAR return on 21 starts. The Cubs have Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Javier Asad who can all eat some of those 10 other starts (though perhaps one goes back the other way - not Horton, of course). And this remains very wishful thinking, as we have to expect it's more likely we don't sign Ohtani than we do...but if you get Ohtani, then you have a ready made TORP who slots right back into the rotation next season. But that's a bonus. Like I said, wishful thinking.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of him any more. His pitch mix got a little funky last year. A lot more pitches registering as cutters (which is not a good Shane Bieber offering) and less sliders (which remains a plus Shane Bieber offering). His fastball velocity, using Savant, averaged the same velo as in 2022, which was at 91.3 mph. In 2022, Shane was a sub 3.00 xFIP while striking out nearly a batter per 9, so he's proven he's more than capable of being a front line starter with that velocity. What it comes down to, for me, is that slider/cutter thing. If his slider is flattening out, if he's lost a little touch/,mechanical thing or if it's pitch mix...I think there's a lot of optimism for a one year bounceback (not sure he'd be a long term guy though, with further velocity loss possible). The Cubs also, are among the best teams at finding velocity, so maybe there's some hope they can add a mph back here or there. If it's injury that has caused the decline of the slider and it's not a fixable item, then I think you're spot on that he's not the guy any more.

Both of these are fun names to be in on. Both have big upside with a few question marks and with only one year left on their contracts, can both offer an interesting mix of "cheaper than normal to acquire a front line arm" while also providing immediate front line help.

Hey, Murton set some records in the NPB out in Japan.

Yeah, we'll see where we go from Caissie. I'll say this about him: I'm a big, big fan. I think his upside is below that of unicorn Alcantara, his floor lower than that of recent 1st rounder Shaw, but I think between all three, he's my favorite in "tier 2" prospects. I'm probably a bit on an island with that one, and I'll admit some bias here (I've been in on the ground floor of Caissie and him being good will make me feel smarter than I should). With that said, there's so much fun in his bat. This is the profile of a power hitting middle-order force we haven't seen role through the system for a while. We've seen athletic players, we've seen defensive wizards...but someone who can just mash his way to the majors hasn't really been seen for a while outside of Kris Bryant and that's basically a decade ago now.

We shall. At this point, until the Cubs play him there (or don't), probably not worth to consistently rehash it over the next 4 months. We both know how we feel, and as said, I'll be glad to be wrong. Hell, he might be traded and we'll never know!

He's played SS and LF as well. As I said originally, I don't think the Cubs control a daily lineup. But I also think it's pretty obvious he won't be playing much, if any, of those positions with the Cubs (he sucks in LF, Swanson and Hoerner would be ahead of him at SS). So I don't read much into him playing 3b. The interesting thing to me was always the quote from the Cubs that he was going to play 1b. That's clearly from the Cubs. I still remain pretty unconvinced the Cubs feel he can play 3b. There will be little until the Cubs actually commit to him playing 3b that will change that at this stage. Maybe he will. I'll be glad to be wrong.

Interest? Yes. It'd be hard to find a match, though. The Astros don't seem like "take an immediate step back" is on the menu right now, so they'd want MLB-now players. The Cubs have PCA and Horton (who's unlikely to be dealt for one year of Bregman, regardless of how good he is) and Christopher Morel (who, unless the Astros seemingly rate him differently as a 3b, would likely have the same "what the hell do we do with this guy?" quandry) as players they could offer but don't super fit either teams' desires. It would be hard to envision the teams matching up in my brain but maybe someone is more creative than I in this regards.

Yeah, the Cubs aren't on a "Ohtani or we're fucked" plan for the offseason, certainly.

Yeah, I'd guess the Cubs are going to be in on Ohtani first and foremost. The good news is that because the Cubs are generally chasing the big fish here (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Imanaga, Soto) they're not really very behind. I also think there's optimism Ohtani gets done this week. Not calling a guarantee, but if you want to avoid media frenzy there's little better time to sign than the week before the WM's.

While perhaps not your intention, this feels a bit on the nitpicky side. We can't expect to see linear data, progression isn't linear. His K% went up a pretty "within standard deviation" 3% in September. That doesn't mean ominous things so much as "sometimes you strike out a little more. Sometimes you strike out a little less". Same thing with the home runs in a truncated (half a month) final month of October. It takes about one good week of 2-3 home runs and that's not an issue. Moving on to the baseballs, sure, 42.3% wasn't only the baseballs, but I also never claimed it was only the baseball. As I stated in the posted above: I think it's a combination. But we can't just ignore that the baseball had a profound effect. It did: as did his age, and his learning. It's wrapped up pretty heavily in a hard to distinguish bog of factors. The overall trend line is what matters here, not the small month to month fluctuations. When we're over analyzing a small increase here or a dip here, we're doing ourselves a disservice and hiding the true story, IMO. Same with the BABIP. Is .400 maybe a bit high? Maybe? But Owen Caissie crushed the baseball when he put it in play. He's significantly better than most of the talent in AA. He was leading the Southern League in HR's well into August, despite being the youngest player. And this isn't the first time he's had great BABIP's, being over .350 at every level so far. I think it's just a small thing and probably isn't really worth investigating too indepth on. So it's maybe a wee bit flukey, but there's so much good here that it just feels like an unnecessary worry. None of this is to say we can't find flaw in Caissie. He's not hitting LHP well (though, this is a pretty common issue for almost any lefty in baseball), he does have questions defensively long term, and how he continues to handle K% issues at higher levels are all real things we should be watching. But I think the smaller issues you're looking at are beyond the scope of what we really should be concerned at as of now.

I think it's certainly questionable. Last year was a weird year for Hayden, as he seemingly added a little bit of velocity and then lost the control of the fastball he had at the end of 2022. He's susceptible to LHH today, but he's got one great pitch, and a fastball that could get back to being fine. The Rays really enjoy multi-inning guys, and I could see them taking Wes in as a "mutli-inning" type, working on a way to attack LHH and transitioning him back into the rotation. I think as of today he isn't, but I don't think the idea of him being a SP is dead, either, if that makes sense. The Rays have a way of working with some guys like him.

Not that I think Wesneski would be the only return, but Hayden Wesneski seems like typical "Rays guy". Sweeper slider, lots of funk...I wonder how much he would interest them.

I would start by saying there's little to nothing flukey here. We have to frame BABIP in different ways when we look at MiLB data sets. We're used to, many times, looking at it as a "fluke" stat, because in the MLB, it's rare to see a player head above heels the rest of the talent level around him, but the MiLB is a different situation. Many times high BABIP can be a good sign and with Caissie and his extreme exit velocities, this seems like a case of "this dude is better than those around him". We shouldn't expect him to carry a .400 BABIP at the MLB level, but we also shouldn't assume he's a fluke in AA either. It's a positive, not a negative right now. So, I disagree with this as well and the issue is that that you're using the wrong data. You have to do per-PA because walks matter here. What you've created is a wrong data set, especially for a player like Owen Caissie who walks a lot. AB's don't count walks, PA's do, so you've essentially punished him for walking if you use ABs instead (For example, if you hit 10 times and walk 4, while striking out 2 times, in the first example you'd have 6 AB's, or a 33.3% K%, when in reality your K% for those 10 appearances was really 20%.). If you want monthly k-rates, use fangraphs. You can go under the game-log tab and select certain data points to match dates. For example, here's his K% per month using the proper format of K's and PA's: April: 43.2% May: 34.5% June: 31.7% July: 25.5% (new baseball alert) August: 28.6% September: 23.7% Another data set, this time comparing the different baseballs only: Pre-tacked: 33.7% Regular Baseball: 27.1% See how much better these look? This isn't a fun-with-data thing either, it's a proper representation of his K%. I think it's clear both that the pre-tacked baseball was a massive change for Caissie, as one of his biggest single, full month drops was from June to July (the league saw a 3% increase in strikeouts alone) and that Caisisie improved his bat to ball throughout the entirety of the season month-to-month. The strikeouts can become a concern, but his ability to work through this, is probably the biggest story of the entire 2023 year for me. An Owen Caissie who can control his strikeouts has everything in his arsenal to be an elite power hitter.

Tom, while I respect your opinion, and always appreciate differing views, I have a hard time agreeing here. Matt Shaw posted a 197 wRC+ and a 120 wRC+ against age appropriate levels. He made strong contact, hit for power and contact, and showed out incredibly well. Tommy Troy, selected in the same range with a similar profile as Shaw (plus contact, plus power, short frame, questions on defense) did not have anywhere near the successes Shaw had, for example (posted a 114 wRC+ during 99 PA's in A+ on his own). If these results don't even "meet expectations" than I fear the issue is not with Matt Shaw and with the expectations placed on him. It's also pretty fair to expect that the Chicago Cubs feel as though he, at the very least "met" expectations or they wouldn't have promoted him to Tennessee. Ultimately, the Cubs have piles more data and scouting than we do, and therefore, carry far more weight here in that determination. I think we should also point out that much of his MiLB data has yet to stabilize (including both his ground ball and his fly ball rate). While I will also point out, most of his other data has yet to stabilize at any individual level, the only data people can really point to as being even "meh" is groundball/flyball or his walk rate (which is really just a product of approach, one of the known concerns with Shaw). In the end, it's not enough information at any level right not to truly change what we think of Shaw, but there's plenty to likely begin to confirm things. Shaw has an approach that should lead to pretty good flyball rates. We believe his bat to ball skills are quality, and that he has some approach things to fix. The only thing not super seen in the data is flyball/groundball, and this has yet to stabilize. I think you're placing far too much importance on small sample size flyball data instead of a more holistic approach here.

I really don't think this is shiny new toy syndrome. All Shaw has done has perform thus far. It's not hard to see where people are excited about him. He's got draft pedigree, a history of performance in both college and the Cape, and now performance in South Bend and Tennessee (though small) to bank on. At least from my stand point, it isn't that he's just new...it's that to date every challenge thrown at him he's met or exceeded expectations. There's flaw there in a swing happy approach (and I did mention that plenty, at least in my opinion) but it isn't something that hasn't been ironed out with others. It's sometimes just okay with being happy about something, even if it is new. No issues debating whether he should be "number three" versus a few other players in the same tier of prospects (Caissie, Alcantara, most notably) but much the of the praise he's getting feels fairly warranted and seems supported by the industry as well. We'll see where we go from here and what he becomes. Though if you're hoping to trade him this offseason to a team who thinks he's a SS, I think you'd be hard pressed to find an organization who thinks he'll settle there. Which isn't to say he can't be traded, only that I think just about everyone out there is in a pretty hard agreement that he's just not a SS.

Duh. Brainfart.

It doesn't feel bad on paper, but also feels very thin. It looks like 3 pretty good arms in Mikolas/Matz/Gray, a bounceback Gibson (who had decent underlyers) and Lance Lynn who looks toast. There's little depth there. It's not bad, but it's so not going to be a strength, either. If this is what the Cubs biggest competition is going to be, they really should be winning this division with proper spending limits and ambitions.

The Cubs drafted Matt Shaw, the former Maryland Terrapin shortstop, in the first round of the 2023 draft, but he does not appear to be a future shortstop at the highest level. Will he be a second baseman? A third baseman? And where do we think he fits into the long-term plan? Image courtesy of © Ron Schloerb/Cape Cod Times / USA TODAY NETWORK 2023 Season Review The Big 10 has a great reputation for producing first-round draft picks in football, hockey, and basketball. Sadly for the conference, it does not have a long history of producing the same high-impact baseball draft picks. Matt Shaw, Big 10 player of the year in 2023, hopes to show that the Big 10 can produce hitters just like they can NFL quarterbacks. Selected 13th overall, the Cubs hope Matt Shaw can become a power threat in the middle of their order. One thing that is clear with Shaw is that he's got impressive power despite his size. Standing at a listed 5'11" and weighing in at 185 lbs, the diminutive infielder doesn't look like a player who would become the all-time home run hitter at a Power-5 conference. Despite this, he hit over 50 home runs during three seasons at Maryland, punctuated by his impressive junior year. Shaw was not recruited as a future first-rounder but let his bat do the talking. Improving his batting average, on base, slugging, home runs, OPS, stolen bases, and doubles from his sophomore to his junior year, it was hard to deny that come to the All-Star break, someone was going to grab the athletic Terp shortstop relatively high in the draft. Upon being drafted by the Cubs, Shaw was immediately sent to the Arizona Complex league. In just three games, it was clear the former college product would not stay in Arizona long, picking up a .500 batting average in his first 11 plate appearances. While South Bend would likely present a higher challenge, this was also quickly proven false. At South Bend, the hitter would take only a further 89 PAs to force a promotion once again. Hitting .393 over 20 games, with four home runs, four doubles, and three triples on his way to a whopping 197 wRC+, Shaw once again proved that minor league hitting at this level wasn't a problem for him. More impressive than those numbers may have been his 13.5% strikeout rate. Shaw does tend to swing early and often, but his bat-to-ball skills and a swing that shortens his large leg kick with two strikes helped him keep the strikeouts quite low. On August 27th, the Cubs decided they had seen enough and once again promoted the young hitter to Tennessee. Another level yet similar story would ensue. Matt Shaw would be a vital member of the Southern League Championship-winning Tennessee Smokies in another small, albeit impressive sample size. In 15 games, Shaw would hit another three home runs, four doubles, and a triple, finishing with a 120 wRC+. By the end of the season, Shaw had just 170 PAs but had already sped through three levels with strong successes at each. Not everything was perfect, however, as there was one glaring flaw in the power hitter's game: his plate approach. Displaying a hyper-aggressive "swing at almost anything" style at the plate, Shaw walked under 5% of the time at every level. While his strikeouts remain in check, his highest strikeout rate is just over 17% at AA Tennessee. Eventually, pitchers are going to be good enough to begin to exploit his free-swinging style. This is something to watch as we move forward into 2024. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's expected that Shaw is at least placed back in Tennessee to begin the season, as 15 games is likely too small of a sample size for the Cubs to assume he's mastered the level (though it took only a few more at high-A South Bend for the Cubs to move him up, so who knows?). If the slugger can continue where he left off, it will likely be a short stay, and by May 1st, he could even see his bags packed for Iowa. This is a fairly decently likely outcome with how comfortable he looked last year at the level. Iowa, however, should provide the kind of challenge he should need. Getting Shaw to stay within the zone and pick out his strikes (and not just any old strike) will be important for his development. A >5% walk rate is too low, and the hitter will eventually start getting himself out on pitcher's strikes. His bat-to-ball skills are certainly a plus, as well as his power, but if he swings at everything, he won't get himself into the kinds of favorable counts that will allow him to flash that power. There's something to be said about waiting for your pitch, and while there's likely always going to be a fairly aggressive style, taking the foot off the gas just a little would probably be good for him. Defensively, it's hard to pick where he'll end up. First things first: He's not a shortstop at the next level. He's a little squatty, and while he's athletic, he won't stick here. When asked who Shaw compares himself to, he has said, "Dustin Pedroia," you can see it in his stature, his bat, and, if he ends up at second base, his position. The problem is the Cubs don't have an opening at second base after they locked up Nico Hoerner until 2026 at least (unless a trade changes that, but that feels unlikely). With how fast the Cubs have pushed Shaw and their current major league roster needing a better solution as of writing this article, his ultimate home in Chicago may be at third. Third base, though, is a bit of an awkward fit because the Terp isn't expected to be a shortstop due to his lack of arm strength (usually considered a necessity for solid third base defense). The Cubs did a great job of extracting plus defense out of another weak-armed second baseman last year in Nick Madrigal, a player who I never thought would be a capable third baseman, so it's unfair to discount this path as impossible. When will we see Matt Shaw coming to a major league stadium? It's possible to see him any time mid-season, though it shouldn't be counted on. The Cubs similarly pushed Kyle Schwarber from draft day to the MLB roster, as he debuted after just 124 games in the minor leagues between 2014 and 2015. It's hard to say that will happen here, as Shaw has under 50 games, but by July 1st, he'd pick up another 60 or so games and be fairly close to that total. Suppose the Cubs keep the current cast of characters at the third base position (Nick Madrigal recently re-signed Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni). In that case, poor production or an injury (at either second or third) could create an opening for him to slip through. However, he will likely make his MLB debut later, maybe even in September. The Cubs shouldn't count on Shaw but shouldn't discount the idea that he could be ready, either. Regardless, it should be a fun follow, and he has many of the hallmarks of a fast riser. View full article

The AAV is fine. I wouldn't bank on 36 and 37 year old Maeda getting more than 200 innings in those two years. Why I wouldn't have signed him to a guaranteed second. That second year can be a big deal (as we're seeing with Mancini, Smyly, Barnhart...), Especially where we are at in the offseason. Kenta is a pretty solid pitcher. He's also pretty often hurt. The offseason is very young still. I wouldn't be jumping on second year guarantees for back end guys yet.