Jason Ross

2023 Season Review Pete Crow-Armstrong entered the season with the hope of many that he may be able to make an impact at the highest level with the Cubs at some point. With strong defense and running, his path to Chicago was fairly clear as long as the bat continued progressing. The good news is that he did just that: he debuted with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. The bad news is that he didn't look particularly comfortable during his short stint with the team. Starting his season in Tennessee, Crow-Armstrong got a hot start in 2023 in his first real taste of the level. The quick-footed PCA, hitting .316 with a 129 wRC+, showed why people were so high on him. However, he showed flaws in his game, such as his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, walking just 3% of the time compared to a strikeout rate of over 22%. It's not that the K's were high, but his free-swinging nature was showing out a bit, causing his walk total to remain too low. Still, the hitter persevered and improved in this area while maintaining a strong offensive output. May saw his walk rate jump to 8% (though a dip in his wRC+ to 96), and a further lowering in his strikeout rate began to show that at least at the Double-A level, the flashy fielder was figuring things out on the other side of the diamond. June saw Crow-Armstrong take off and announce that maybe he was just done with Double A: walking 11% of the time now, posting an ISO north of .230 and with a 149 wRC+. By August 1st, it was time for promotion to the Cubs Triple-A affiliate in Iowa. Iowa started similarly to Tennessee for PCA: a bunch of strikeouts in his first few games and a little walking, striking out seven times in only 18 plate appearances. This kind of struggle wouldn't last long. Pete's next 51 PAs saw him hit three home runs, four doubles, and a triple of a .353 batting average and a 173 wRC+. More importantly? Only ten strikeouts, coupled with nine walks. Crow-Armstrong would hit a few skids here or there, posting a -5 wRC+ from August 20th through the 29th, but finished relatively strongly over his last 11 games (though with increasingly worse strikeout numbers). Looking for a spark, he was called up to the Cubs for the final handful of weeks. Sadly, his call up was not the spark plug the Cubs hoped it may have been. With his electric speed and defense, seeing the brash youngster catch fire wouldn't have been surprising. Instead, over his 19 plate appearances with the Cubs, PCA went hitless, striking out seven times and being caught stealing twice out of four attempts. It was kind of a disappointing run. Frankly, I think it was good for him... 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Where Pete Crow-Armstrong starts will be up for debate over the next few months. As of the writing of this article, the Cubs only have Mike Tauchman ahead of PCA on the center field depth chart. While Tauchman had some initial magic, he struggled to the tune of a sub-90 wRC+ over his last ~170 plate appearances. The Cubs could allow auchman to play "caretaker" of the position for the first month while Pete Crow-Armstrong readjusts in Iowa. There's no rush on PCA, and his first 19 PAs showed that he still probably has something to learn, even if it's simply a little humility. But for someone with as much confidence in himself, as PCA does, it was probably good to get knocked down a bit, as it should force him to reevaluate some of the things he can work on (namely, his plate approach). Craig Counsell's hiring for the managerial position may also affect this choice; Counsell was no stranger to playing rookies in Milwaukee (Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, to name a few) in important roles. He also was fearless in playing defensive first players (such as Turang and Jace Peterson). It wouldn't be crazy to think Counsell's pick would be the defensively near-elite Pete Crow-Armstrong based on his history. The Cubs may also re-sign someone like Cody Bellinger, who won the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year award. While Bellinger would be able to slide over to first base if/when the cocky kid was ready, it would be probable that he would start in center while PCA got some extra time in Iowa. How good is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and why is he in the number one slot? The first reason is his floor. Playing a premium position, providing excellent defense, and being a demon on the bases give PCA one of the easiest paths to two wins I've seen out of a prospect. Dalton Varsho, in 2023, posted an 85 wRC+ (.220/.285/.389 slash) but was still worth 2.1 fWAR because he was a +2.8 on the bases and +18 DRS in CF. Brenton Doyle was the worst-hitting center fielder in baseball with a horrible 43(!!) wRC+ but led the league in DRS for center fielders and was worth a whole win. All the Cubs' top prospect has to do is match Varsho with the bat, and he's a pretty near a lock for two wins. But what's the ceiling? That's a more complicated question. The reality is that there are a lot of outcomes here. If PCA controls the zone with the bat, settles down the approach, and allows the game to come to him just a little more, there's genuinely a 5+ WAR player here. He's got 20+ home run power and the swing to provide it; he has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and combined with the things we know he's good at (speed and defense), he could become a multiple All-Star. But if the approach isn't fixed and lags, that two-win floor might be where he settles in. He's our top prospect because he offers a unique combination of floor and ceiling, but he is not without fault. Regardless, there's a chance that the Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez trade in the summer of 2021 becomes the Mets version of Lou Brock, and while that may not happen, it's really fun to dream it, isn't it?