Jason Ross

I would disagree with this. Ben Brown either is going to be consistent enough to stay in a rotation, or he won't. Teams don't put yo-yo guys in there. When Brown's fastball isn't there, he's just not going to be useful at the MLB level past 2-3 innings that day, and no team is going to have a SP in their rotation every 5 days with that question. With Brown, he's got legitimately, an argument for the best curveball in all of the MiLB league wide, not just with the Cubs. Pairs with a 98mph fastball and a plus slider. Guys with that stuff just aren't number 4's. Even with middling command. Brown is either going to find middling command and he'll settle in as a high K higher-walk SP or he's just not going to find even middling command and be unstartable, IMO. I really don't think there's a world where Ben Brown settles in as a #4 or something. Some guys have that where "maybe they don't develop pitch X and it means they can't reach their full potential" type thing. With Brown, it's either the command is going to be good enough to where he'll stick in the rotation and he'll be pretty damn good, or it just won't, and he won't ever be in the rotation, from my perspective. I don't think I'd agree that most guys who are #4 types were guys that people thought had top of the rotation stuff. There are some of those types, but many were always guys who were thought of as mid-rotaiton or lower and settled in right where they thought. The road to MLB status is paved with failed prospects. Ben Brown, like all is more likely to fail than succeed. Maybe more so. But I don't really think there's a world where Brown's stuff leaves him in the middle ground. He feels all boom or bust when it comes to the rotation, and moreso than others. Especially with how easy his stuff would dominate as a leverage reliever.

Rumors are he's signing before the Winter Meetings. Not just Christmas, it could be within 2 weeks. If he doesn't sign by the end of the WM it would be shocking at this point.

While I do not doubt Ohtani is worth a good amount of revenue, I cannot buy he's worth $100m in revenue, per season. Thats kind of absurd.

I love Trout. His back injury is really a serious deal. I'd be pretty hesitant to sell the farm for a player who has the degenerative issue he has.

Horton is in his own tier of pitching prospects, IMO. I'm a monster fan of Horton. Ben Brown has TORP upside, Horton is much closer to that upside than Brown today.

Yeah, that's true. And really, probably fits with the Ohtani-timeline. If there are two serious clubs here, one of which is in the city that Shohei has been in for his career date, it probably shortens the signing timeline. It isn't like another club is going to magically find $400m in budget in December.

1. So he uses his slider a lot, but it's hard to sometimes tell what's a slider and what's a curveball. The separation between the two has been hard to distinguish and something he's been working on. Shape and velocity wise, they have similar profiles. 2. Yes. Big power sweeper and curve? He almost assuredly got even extra run. With that said, he was near a 13 K/9 in 2022 too, so I think it was minimal. His breaking stuff is so good that the added break probably wasn't necessary When it comes to relief, you can mitigate the impact of walks. Relievers carry BB/9's in the mid 4's and are consistently among the best in the game. Four of the top-10 fWAR'd relievers have walk rates over 4.30 per 9.Mostly because they carry absurd K numbers. Brown would be that type if possible. But yeah there's RP risk here and it's more likely that's where he ends up. He's not the type who's going to settle in as like, a#4. So he's either a TORP or a BP guy because he either figures out the fastball...or he doesn't.

Appreciate the kind words on the features. I agree, the system has come a long way. This isn't a system stocked with pitchability and safe players. We're very upside driven. We haven't even seen some of our biggest "tools" guys yet. Nazier Mule is coming off TJS and is a two way player (though almost assuredly a P long term) and I really like Jaxson Wiggins more than others (he's got a bit of similarities to how the Cubs got in on Horton on the "ground floor"), JP Wheat, as well, is another recent TJS guy the Cubs have. There's a few really fun pitchers the Cubs should start seeing.

I'm not sure it was out of character. The walk rates weren't bad in AA, but the work with the fastball was still needed. His fastball placement has always been a bit of a concern. I think AAA hitters were just better at not getting dominated by it like AA hitters were.

Yeah, I had said in another thread that it's probably really easy today to want to move someone like Brown over Wicks (who I really like!) because Wicks impacts the 2024 Cubs in a more concrete and obvious way. But the stuff is so good here that in a single years' time, if the control gets improved...singing a different song there wouldn't be very surprising. The upside is huge with Brown. It's just hard to be confident in it.

Ending his year with an injury, it'd be easy to forget the highlights of Ben Brown's 2023 season. Ben Brown's 2024 is one of the more interesting to explore. Will the tall hurler be in the Chicago Cubs rotation? Will he be a leverage reliever? Or will he be in another organization entirely? Image courtesy of Ben Brown 2023 Season Review Acquired from the Phillies for reliever David Robertson, Ben Brown wasn't a name many were familiar with at the 2022 deadline. With many upset at the Cubs' lack of movement on catcher Willson Contreras, the acquisition of Brown was somewhat under the radar. However, by the end of 2022, Brown had begun to turn heads. Finishing with 31 innings in his new organization in which Brown struck out over 12 per nine innings and limiting his walks, there were high expectations for him in 2023. Perhaps no prospect had a better start to the year than Brown. Over his first 30 innings, the righty would strike out an impressive 47 hitters, walking 11 and surrendering only two earned runs. His five-inning, ten-strikeout effort on May 10th, just his second turn on the mound in newly promoted Iowa, was one of his highlights of the season. At this point, it seemed not if but when Brown would be added to the Cubs' roster, with many seeing Brown as a potential impact leverage reliever to help the stretch run or even make a few starts. Enthusiasm would be halted on May 16th as Ben Brown showed flaws in his game. Giving up seven runs in just four innings, Brown's poor outing began to highlight a recurring theme for the pitcher: his spotty fastball command. Throughout the rest of the year, Brown's highlights were nothing short of spectacular, and his lowlights nothing short of dreadful. On May 27th and June 14th, Brown would strike out 11 hitters each game, limiting walks to just two. Following up each start, almost immediately, on June 2nd and June 25th, would see the right-handed fireballer surrendering six runs, as he struggled with walks in each outing (five in the first and three in less than a single inning pitched in the second). When Brown was on, his plus-plus curveball would be on feature. A big aspect of work the Cubs put in on Brown this year was separating his slider from his curveball. It wouldn't be the craziest thing for one to give Brown a 70 grade on his curveball. It's that good. The slider has come a long way, and these pitches generate ugly swings and misses out of the zone. When Brown was off, his fastball command would wane, both in and out of the zone. At times, you could tell Brown was forcing his fastball in the zone, resulting in poorly placed pitches and lots and lots of contact. After Ben Brown's start on July 30th, it was revealed that he had a lat strain and would end up missing the month of August. Coupled with the fastball command issues, Brown was never added to the Cubs 26-man roster. Upon returning, his command failed him fairly often, as he issued 11 free passes in just a little over six innings. It's hard to glean a lot from these innings, as Brown was not used as a traditional starter and only lasted one or two innings. There was likely rust in play here, and because of that, it's tough to tell the reasoning behind the walks. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It would be disappointing if Ben Brown didn't reach the majors in 2024. Even if his fastball command remains spotty, Brown has leverage reliever stuff that should help any bullpen in baseball. However, where Ben Brown ultimately ends up, in the rotation or the bullpen, will largely be determined by that fastball command. When Brown has his fastball, he is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type. Hitting the high 90s with those elite breaking balls, it's very difficult for opposing hitters to touch the man. When he doesn't, however, Brown is quite hittable. How the Cubs fix these issues and create a more consistent pitcher will be key to his development. However, there is a good chance that the lanky righty doesn't stay in the Cubs organization. The Cubs look likely to make at least one, or possibly more, trades to impact the parent team this offseason, and Ben Brown will likely be a name bandied about. As the Cubs are poised to keep high-end-prospect Cade Horton, others such as Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Brown will be names teams like the San Diego Padres should have interest in, for example, in a Juan Soto trade. It would be easy to see Brown as an acceptable loss because of how his 2023 ended, but we can't forget how it began. Brown has real upside, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him go on to have a career at the top of a rotation, regardless of the inherent risk. View full article

I think we are going to have to accept...there will be no leaks here. Also a good way to sus out those who have information and who don't. This likely will be very quiet until the very end.

Haha hey, fair play to be an optimistic person! If it helps, I also believe the Cubs are going to attempt to sign Ohtani to a real honest contract. I just don't believe Ben lol

Ben Devine does not feel like a legitimate source. He's NFL focused, seems to break no news, and keeps his post vague. His profile states "breaking Chicago news" but that hes a teacher. People who break news dont say they break news...they do it. As a fellow teacher, we dont break news (unless its breaking the news to my kids they have homework). I don't doubt the Cubs are putting together an offer based on what we have heard. I also don't doubt Ben Devine is hoping on sounding legit and is not a source worth monitoring.

Both he and Hector Gomez seem to do the same thing. Another way I look at Hector/Mike...they're Spanish speaking Bob Nightengales.

Mike is the Pepsi to Hector Gomez' Coca-Cola. He was banging the drum on the Cubs and Correa last offseason, and while I do think the Cubs courted him, the reality of how close it was seemed to be quite far from Mike Rodriguez's "reporting". Add in how quiet Ohtani's camp is rumored to want this to be, and this feels a bit like Mike trying to jump into this so he can bang a drum at the end of the day if the Cubs sign him.

Hey, I love the conversation. This is why I post on a forum to begin with. My partner does not give two shits about Jordan Wicks home run rate in Tennessee as a 23 year old and whether or not his changeup is going to generate more whiffs. It's either I have these awesome conversations with intelligent like minded individuals on this place or I'll eventually drive her insane debating whether or not Owen Caissie's swing is too loopy to succeed at the MLB level. Thanks for the debates!

Working great here in Lexington, KY, Including battling through my incredibly odd work filter.

I think we have to remember that Amaya basically hadn't played catcher for two years and then spent time as a backup a bunch. Not that he wasn't getting work on the side, but rust probably falls into play. Amaya did score pretty high in framing data, finishing 24th of 65 catchers on baseball savants leaderboards, much higher than Gomes. His blocking data wasn't great, sitting in the bottom third. His pop time was about mid-pack, as well as his arm strength. I think overall he looked like a pretty average defensive catcher last year. With more time back and an offseason of work, it shouldn't be shocking to see improvement, but even if this is what he is, he's fine back there, if not impressive.

I've thought that the Cubs would keep a Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastrobuni rotation at 3b, with Madrigal getting more PA's than the others for a bit. Wisdom would get curated PA's in situations that suit him (more like what we saw from him in the 2nd half. Where I think he can be more useful at the plate) and Mastro will get a bit of run too. At least until the Cubs either have a prospect who's ready to take over or the Cubs address the position at the deadline. Chapman is an interesting case. Batted ball data like barrel%, hard hit%. chase rate, exit velo...all ranked very high. His BABIP was a career high by a pretty decent margin, and his ISO was a career low. He hit a ton of doubles and his HR total fell off. He had a monster April and a Monster July but was basically worthless the rest of the year. I can't tell if I think he's unlucky to have so many doubles, if the power is just dipping a bit turning the HR's into doubles, if his batted ball data is the way to look at it, or to look at how ineffective he was for four months. Glad I don't have to decide on him and that it is someone else's job.

I think context matters and I want to bring a bit of context to Wicks' numbers. So if we're looking at his career MiLB HR/FB%, he's got excellent HR rates in both A+ and in AAA, where the "high" data point seems to be is in Tennessee. So just factual information here but: 1. In 2022, Wicks surrendered five home runs in AA over eight starts. Four of them came in his first two starts, and one of them came in his remaining six. 2. In 2022 Jordan Wicks surrendered nine home runs in 13 starts in AA. We can interpret this data how we want, but when I see a pitching giving up 90% of his home runs in 2022 in his first two starts at a new level, I don't see an issue; I see growth. I see a pitcher who got a new level of competition and learned. 2023 AA data needs to be given an asterisk for anyone in the Southern League. For Wicks, according to his father he "hated that ball". A command over stuff pitcher likely is going to struggle a bit when you mess with the ball. It isn't shocking then, to see him struggle more with missing spots in that case, which, resulted in higher HR totals, especially if a pitcher "hated" that ball. So while I think in most cases it'd be fair to say "you're just rationalizing data to fit a view point" here, I think the AAA data does a lot of talking here too. Once he returned to a normal, non pre-tacked baseball, the HR's went back down despite an increase in competition. If he was truly getting beat by talent, I think we'd expect to see, at the very least, the HR/FB% remain closer to what he saw in AA, not decline again. And I know you didn't say it was terrible, but I don't think I claimed you did, either. I do think that when we contextualize his blips, there seems to be rationalization for them. He's got the profile of someone who should be able to keep the ball in play. Even if he's got a 13-15% HR/FB%, if he's getting 47% ground balls, it means he's going to give up less fly balls, regardless. 15% of a smaller number equates to a lower number of home runs.

Interesting! I missed that one. Good to see he was in Chicago a bit.

I'd be fine with Morel for Alonso as long as they filled DH with Ohtani or Soto. Once they fill the DH spot, Morel is surplus to requirements. I struggle to see the Cubs using him at 1b, regardless of what positional flexibility they're giving him. So they might as well turn him into something they'll use. On it's own it's a bit weird. Coupled with other moves it makes sense.

This offseason is going to be nuts.