Jason Ross

Pagan to the Reds: 2/$16m

Yeah, with Ohtani, there seems to be a lot of different and swaying views out there as to what he wants. We've heard he wants a winner. We've heard he wants to be close to the West Coast. We've heard conflicting reports that he cares less about geography and more about the ballpark. We've heard it's not just money. We've heard he wants little media attention on the meetings... It's a pretty interesting free agent experience. On one hand, he's the biggest MLB free agent since A-Rod, and on the other, it's been basically devoid of any leaks, speculation or anything other than a few "maybes". We won't see many free agent experiences like this one, I don't think.

I'd put this in the same category as Ohtani feels like a forgone conclusion to the Dodgers in that I think it's an easy connection to make (large market + need), but one that we'll have to see play out. If Ohtani ends up in LA, for example, I'd expect the Cubs to seriously pivot there and can largely match anything the Yankees provide if they're encouraged enough. Others as well.

Based on his followers there's a few decent ones in there. Does seem to have been out front on some Mets front office firings? If so that points to something. Hard to tell, as those four teams (minus the Angels) seem to be the four getting the most love right now in the media so kind of low hanging fruit plus his former team and LA rivals. Rangers being out might be notable, and lack of mention of the Giants might be interesting. These smaller sources are always so hard to pinpoint. I'm sure some of them have some people they know and others are just riding coat tails. Some of them are Chris Cotello who ended up being a real journalist and now covers the Red Sox and most are just guys hoping to make it seem legit.

I was thinking the same thing. It feels like that's where you'd start, but maybe that's why no one wants me to run their MLB franchise, either.

Per Andy Martino (NY Post) Trade talks between the Padres and the Yankees regarding Juan Soto have progressed to a point of exchanging names, though the ask was "very high" and the two sides are not close.

Yeah, if Dave wanted to be taken seriously he'd have to be something like DavesAnus420. With such a simple and boring name like "Dave" how can I even begin to believe the man has sources?

He was so bad last year, I forgot he existed.

We'll see. Maybe it's hopeful wishing, but with the reports that Ohtani may not be super jazzed about the ballpark out there, it may be more realistic to get Yamamoto. But the Yankees are lurking there, and it's hard to beat the Yankees (I.E. Aaron Judge).

I have a feeling they'll go with a 6-man rotation of sorts (though maybe no a full-set-6 man, if that makes snese?) The Cubs have 5 guys right now who can start (though not the 5 guys who should be "the rotation" if that makes sense) in Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Asad, and Smyly. Wicks has already a good amount of "6-man rotation" in him. Whether the Cubs go with a Glasnow, or a Bieber, or one of the Japanese arms, they'll also be somewhat of an innings-watcher. Japnese arms tend not to pitch as often/much as American arms, and Glasnow/Bieber have plenty of injury concerns. Kind of the perfect situation for a 6-man, if you ask me. So maybe someone gets a break here or there through the order, or a rest.

Oh for sure. There's some good stuff for Keegan. I really would like to see him get back to being useful. And it's possible! I just wouldn't let him stop me from Glasnow if we can!

Keegan Thompson is fine, but probably won't be counted on much from the Cubs point of view if things go well. You've got guys like Horton and Brown who will be more likely to start. Already have Wesneski/Asad/Smyly as multi-inning relievers. Injuries will happen, and he'd probably see innings, but he's likely going to be left on the outside moreso than the inside. He'll also be 29. Not suggesting he's toasted at that age, just that if the Cubs take take a 29 year old multi-inning guy that isn't likely for opening day roster duty and it helps turn into Tyler Glasnow (regardless of how much of a glass cannon he is), that's W in my book.

I'll address specifically the bolded: while I still disagree with some things (and that's fine, all's fair in love, and war, and prospect evaluations, frankly), I find this post far more fair than where we started, questioning whether he had met expectations to date or not. I'd rather we get to a point of fairness, even if we may see things differently, than unfairly looking at a prospect, if that makes sense. That's usually a very good place to be at the end of a discussion.

The Cubs just don't do this in the MiLB right now. For example, look at Wicks. He didn't go over 5 innings last year while in Tennessee or Iowa, but went 6+ his first MLB start. They seem to have a set limit they feel comfortable with at lower levels, while they ramp up PC and length at the MLB level.

Which very well could happen. It's going to be a risk a team takes. At the same time, it likely takes the cost of acquisition down, too.

It feels like we're moving some goal posts here. It's changed from "he didn't meet expectations" to "I don't see the skillset of a first division starter", both of which I disagree on, but for different reasons. You remain overly hung up, for my tastes, on GB% and FB%. I don't see any major concerns here. Tweaks are likely to come, and I expect these things such as EV and LA are generally tied to the same thing with his hyper-aggressivity. These seem like minor symptoms to date of the underlying issue. Being a bit more choosey will place him in better counts, create more walks, and allow him to put more damage on pitches. I think it all comes back to the same thing...Matt Shaw has plus contact, plus power but to really get the most out of these skills needs to learn a little bit better of an approach. I don't think it's fair to expect a college hitter to have fixed these things over the course of a 170 PA MiLB stint. Which is why it comes back to "do I see an MLB first division start's skillset?" and that's an easy "yes". His skillset is that of a 55 grade hit tool, a 55 grade power tool (these are more averages, as others will be a deviation above or below here and there) with 45 grade defense and a 50 grade athleticism. That's what first division starters look like. He may not be a superstar, but he doesn't have to be to be a first division starter. I also see the flaws in the skillset, so those grades are the "what he can be" not "what he is today" (if he was that today he'd be in the MLB). But if our line for "what makes a first division starter and not" is "is imperfect today" than I think we're being rather unfair, because every prospect except truly generational talents have pitfalls and weaknesses that needed ironed out along the way. They needed to refine something, much like Shaw does. Shaw may never fix those weaknesses, refine those edges, but the skillset remains.

Ah horsefeathers. You're right. Stupid horsefeathers new CBA with their new rules. Either way, still love a 1 year Glasnow move.

When Cade Horton was drafted seventh overall in 2022 by the Chicago Cubs, many fans questioned the Cubs' choice. A year later, arguing that this is anything short of a "best-case scenario" is hard. Just where do we go from here with the fireballing right-handed pitcher? And when might we see him taking the mound in Chicago? Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK 2023 Season Review Entering draft night 2022, rumors swirled that the Cubs would likely draft a hitter. Some believed second baseman Temarr Johnson could float his way down to the seventh pick, others like college sluggers like Jacob Berry or Brooks Lee, and there were possibilities of the Cubs going catcher with Kevin Parada. It was only an hour before the draft that it was suggested a team within the top 10 was looking into Oklahoma right-handed starting pitcher Cade Horton. When it was the Cubs' turn to make their selection (with Brooks Lee and Kevin Parada still on the board), it became apparent just who that team was. To say opinions on the pick were initially "mixed" would have been an understatement. Statistically, it would be easy to be underwhelmed with the college junior's numbers. With just 53 innings under his college belt and an ERA nearing 5.00, Horton being a top 10 pick seems curious. Where Horton came into his own was his last few starts of the season, as Horton showed at the College World Series, striking out a record 13 Notre Dame hitters, which put his name on the map. Displaying a new slider, the power righty became interesting. Many were wary that the Cubs were buying into the hype and less the pitcher, though, with such a limited track record, and it coming at the very end of the season. Entering 2023, Horton curiously started in Myrtle Beach, their low-A affiliate. This was somewhat odd for a first-round selection, but it was reported that the Cubs were just looking after his arm, as Horton was only a little over a year removed from rehabbing Tommy John. Myrtle Beach represented a more welcoming early-season climate, but the former Sooner was not long for low-A. Striking out five in just over two innings, Horton started fast. By May 10th, he was in South Bend. Despite his first start with the South Bend Cubs being arguably his worst start of the season (six earned runs, three home runs surrendered, in under four innings), Horton again made quick work of the league. At one point, in a 13-inning span from May 24th through June 7th, Horton struck out an astronomical 27 hitters in 13 innings while walking one. The righty would make 11 starts in South Bend before the Cubs again decided that his 12.45 K/9 and 3.83 (2.57 FIP) were just too good for the level, promoting him to Tennessee. Upon reaching the Smokies and AA, it wasn't long before it was clear he was also their best arm. In 27 innings, once again, Horton dominated. Striking out ten hitters per nine innings and with a 1.33 ERA, Horton started the two most important games of the season for Tennessee: their first playoff game and the title clincher. It was clear that with a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s and flashes 98mph, Horton's velocity wasn't an issue. We also knew about the slider: it's good. It was nice to see that Horton continued working on the changeup. While not a pitch he used often, it was a pitch he began to throw more and more as the season went along, specifically against left-handed hitters. Overall, the goateed pitcher struck out 117 hitters, walked just 27, and had a 2.65 ERA throughout 88 innings and 21 starts. It should be no shock that he was eventually named the 2023 Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year. There wasn't anyone else who was particularly close. Circling back to draft day, a lot of credit should go to Cubs area scout Ty Nichols on being high enough on Horton to suggest him in the 2022 draft. While fans may have only have seen the late season hype stemming from his scintillating College World Series starts, it was Nichols who had been in on Horton since his high school days (coming across him while scouting former first round pick Ed Howard). Cade Horton deserves all the awards he earned from his 2023 season, but I'd be remiss if Nichols didn't get mentioned for being the guy who found and lobbied for the MiLB Pitcher of the Year, too. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA There is no debate about how good of a season Cade Horton had, and there's little doubt that the Cubs made the right choices in the 2023 draft. Other players have had good starts, but Horton is behind Jackson Holliday as having the best starts of the entire field so far. Horton exceeded almost any "best case" for 2023 and allowed the Cubs to draft fellow-top-10 prospect Jackson Ferris. Does it get any better than 1-2 punch in the draft than these two? None of this should suggest the pitcher is perfect today. The moxie and the mound presence the first-year professional showed was special. Unlike other pitchers I've seen, Cade Horton flat-out-dominates hitters. He does not care about you and will throw his fastball down the pipe, asking you to do something about it. He can get away with that against hitters in lower levels, but it's going to be something he can't do at higher ones. It's not so much a command/control thing but a mentality he has. Being a bulldog is great, but you have to know your limits, too. I'd also like him to continue refining the pitch mix and the changeup. His fastball-slider combination is reminiscent of Spencer Strider. You could give him a 70 grade on his fastball and slider if you wanted to, and I don't think you'd sound insane. While Strider has also developed a changeup on the job, it'd be nice if Horton could dial that pitch in just a little more before he makes his debut. It's likely to be a place to work this offseason. The good news? There's a lot of data out there that suggests he could have a third plus pitch in his arsenal sooner rather than later. The question I've been debating for a while is, "When does Cade Horton make his debut in Chicago?" the answer might surprise you; my hot take of the offseason is that he will debut before May ends. That's an incredible timeline, but I think that highly of him. I think he's close to being ready now, and I'm not alone. Byran Smith, formerly of Bleacher Nation, thinks similarly. There isn't much more here to work on. A little tweaking. A little refining. But his fastball-slider combo plays now, and a little extra work with the changeup should give him enough of a mix to attack right-handed hitters and left alike. Someone will get hurt, and Cade Horton will get a chance to make a start. Based on what I've seen, I have a feeling Horton will impress enough that he does not go back down. I reserve this for few prospects, but I genuinely believe Cade Horton is a special talent. He's not generational, but he is special. This is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had for a while, and dare I say, since Mark Prior. View full article

I kind of love Glasnow on a one year deal. For his Lux tax, he's only $15m. It's a way for the Cubs to continue to play "woe is me" with the LT levels, but still get an arm that is capable of being an absolute terror when on the mound. Yeah, he's injury prone, but you don't need him for 7 years, you need him for one year. He threw 120 innings last year. If you get 120 innings out of him this year, well that's a 3.2 fWAR return on 21 starts. The Cubs have Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Javier Asad who can all eat some of those 10 other starts (though perhaps one goes back the other way - not Horton, of course). And this remains very wishful thinking, as we have to expect it's more likely we don't sign Ohtani than we do...but if you get Ohtani, then you have a ready made TORP who slots right back into the rotation next season. But that's a bonus. Like I said, wishful thinking.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of him any more. His pitch mix got a little funky last year. A lot more pitches registering as cutters (which is not a good Shane Bieber offering) and less sliders (which remains a plus Shane Bieber offering). His fastball velocity, using Savant, averaged the same velo as in 2022, which was at 91.3 mph. In 2022, Shane was a sub 3.00 xFIP while striking out nearly a batter per 9, so he's proven he's more than capable of being a front line starter with that velocity. What it comes down to, for me, is that slider/cutter thing. If his slider is flattening out, if he's lost a little touch/,mechanical thing or if it's pitch mix...I think there's a lot of optimism for a one year bounceback (not sure he'd be a long term guy though, with further velocity loss possible). The Cubs also, are among the best teams at finding velocity, so maybe there's some hope they can add a mph back here or there. If it's injury that has caused the decline of the slider and it's not a fixable item, then I think you're spot on that he's not the guy any more.

Both of these are fun names to be in on. Both have big upside with a few question marks and with only one year left on their contracts, can both offer an interesting mix of "cheaper than normal to acquire a front line arm" while also providing immediate front line help.

Hey, Murton set some records in the NPB out in Japan.