Jason Ross

If you have a .93 run scoring chance and it goes up, it isn't just about scoring Pete in that scenario. If Pete gets picked off, then you still have a runner on. We have to understand run matrices are taking all of this into account. When we add runners, we expect more runs to be scored. And listen, again, if your best argument is anecdotal we are inventing "what ifs" then we should probably assume there is no correct choice. Two things can be true: 1. Maybe you'd have done something different. Frankly, I don't care. 2. It almost assuredly would not have changed the outcome. That's what I care about. Everyone playing Monday Morning manager here is just shuffling papers. Walking Nico, walking them loaded...everyone here probably lost.

it does and it doesn't. It doesn't mean Pete is more likely to score individually. We can assume that a single run is more likely to score because the number goes over 1: it's trying to assume how many runs you can expect. So if we expect .93 runs to score versus 1.4 runs, it's logically more likely one run scores with 1.4 than .93. And there is no data to suggest walking Nico is really lowering this. Kimbrel is high FB%, Nico is good speed and probably steals anyways, and Busch was a top- wRC+ in baseball against RHH last year and usually hits a lot of fly balls. It's a little wonky when determining extra innings as teams act differently. So it's imperfect, and I don't mean it to be perfect. And the Cubs don't need two runs which changes things. But point also remains; adding base runners isn't good. And of our best option is "this" than at best we are at "no clear answer" and we should probably stop acting like the Mets chose a braindead option versus a "no win situation" choice. Not that the you are just in general.

It frankly is embarrassing because of the over confidence of some people thinking their answer is a significantly better outcome. Yes. There is literally no good choice. Run matrices says adding runners increases scoring. There might be some small anecdotal reason you pitch to Busch over Nico, but its anecdotal. There is no correct choice here. People pretending there is a better option than the other is silly. And Cohen might get fired. He wont get fired because of this choice. That's asinine.

It really isn't. No one is getting fired because of a run scoring with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

And yet bases loaded 1 out is the highest run expectancy you could create. There is no clear answer and we gotta stop pretending there is. If "What I would have done" is add to the chances a runs scores, there just isn't a good choice. A run was almost always going to score there.

So then you *best* option is a bases loaded situation against Alex Bregman, with a pitcher who is struggling to throw strikes? Every option sounds bad. And to be clear here is your run matrix for a run scored in all of the possible situations: 3rd, 1 out: .930 runs scored 3rd and 1st, one out: 1.17 runs scored 3rd and 2nd one out: 1.4 runs scored Bases loaded one out: 1.6 runs scored All we are doing is making a run more likely to score by adding base runners. There is no clear answer here.

To put it another way; if your other option is "maybe the guy who was in the top-10 of RHH vs LHP last year is mentally not perfect" than there is no clear option for the situation you're in. The Mets were in a situation where almost anything they did was going to result in a run scoring.

Hoerner steals 2nd base with a fielders indifference immediately if you walk him. There is no double play option. The Mets aren't guarding against it with the game winning run on 3rd. Especially if it's PCA who goes on a steal attempt.

Kimbrel has very real L/R splits. Kimbrel doesn't get ground balls to begin with. Busch hits a lot more fly balls than Hoerner does traditionally. Pitching to Hoerner was the right call. Both are bad choices but you pitch R-R with the hitter more likely to hit it on the ground. Hoerner got the SF. Both are bad choices. Pitching to Nico is the better option even if he came through. The Mets were in a near lose-lose proposal.

It's probably the right call. Kimbrel doesn't get ground balls (he's on the very high fly ball% train) and Busch is a LHH. He's struggled for a few weeks but it's not a great matchup. Go after the guy who doesn't fly out deep very often and hope you get a ground ball or a pop up that way. Sometimes you're stuck between a bad place and a bad place. The Mets got stuck there. Good on the Cubs. Good sweep.

Assad looking solid. His 2 seam has some bite on it today.

He went up a level. Better pitching and Triple-A has a good deal of those "former MLB guys who are too good for Iowa but not good enough for a rotation" types. They're far more capable of attacking LHH to their weak spots. LHH league wide are worse against LHP (85 wRC+ in 2025) than RHH are against RHP (96 wRC+ last year). The Cubs also have Matt Shaw who hit lefties really well. The incentive to let a rookie LHH who provides no defensive value and therefore everything comes from the bat face LHP just flat out isn't there. So there isn't much of a reason for the Cubs to find out if he can hit LHP very much right now.

He is rehabbing tonight in Iowa.

Probably none. It isn't like Tread is brand new. Instead, it's way more likely that "this is what pitchers do" and we are just getting hit with it all at once.

Sounds decent. I'd prefer if that was more 94-96, as 92-94 feels a bit "over ager beating up on kiddos' but he has little experience above ACL so maybe balances out? Not terrible but not as fun as McGwite tossing 99 too.

Bingo. He's made definable and noticeable changes in hit hit profile. He's added some launch angle, and it so far has resulted in more line drives and flyballs. Because the LA change, it's something that we can trace back to a reason; it does not appear random. The flyballs may conceivably lower his batting average and yes, he may lose a single or a few that way. To use last year's sample size, he hit 549 balls in play (I subbed out all PA's that resulted in some sort of baseball that did not land in the field of play. HR', K's, BBs, sacs, HBPs...you get the picture). Using his new numbers that would have resulted in (roughly, I'm doing some quick napkin rounding): GB's: 181 ground balls FB's: 209 fly balls LD: 157 line drives *Note this sample is two balls in play short because of rounding but it's not going to really effect the outcome, so don't @me when someone counts this as 547. I know! Using 2025 league xBA on those results it would have resulted in the following numbers of hits. This does not differentiate between singles, doubles, triples, whatever...but it is quick napkin outcomes: GBs: 45 hits FBs: 37 hits (I also subtracted HR's from league xBA here for this to be fair) LDs: 97 hits This quick, napkin math results in 179 hits on ball in play using this quick data. Obviously this isn't entirely scientific, there are lots of other factors in play (ev, pull%, does this change his approach?) but it's not really supposed to be a scientific experiment. It's just a quick thought experiment to ballpark us. Any error isn't likely to cause egregiously different outcomes than this napkin math. Adding back in the seven home runs, he would have been at 186 hits. In 2025 Nico Hoerner recorded 178 hits. So even if someone wants to +/- 10 the amount of hits, Hoerner is right there, and that's without adding a single home run to the tally of a guy hitting the ball in the air more often. To recap: the expected amount of hits Hoerner would lose using this approach is... seemingly none. It appears he would have had more non-home run hits based on league expected batting average. And this assumes he wouldn't hit any more home runs, which is probably unfair.

I have tried to explain this to you multiple times. If he were losing base hits due to his hitting the ball "in the air" then we'd see this reflected in xBA. Expected BA takes into account EV and launch angle. Meaning, if his xBA was sitting in the mid .200's this year, we'd be seeing someone who was losing hits. His xBA last year was .292. They're identical. I brought up an anecdote because it's pretty good timing for you to be complaining about him "trying to hit HR's" only for him, you know, like 3 hours later hitting one. It's quite coincidental, and frankly, pretty funny. And let's really look at your complaint about "balls in the air". So far this year he's hitting 10% less ground balls, 8% more line drives and 4% more fly balls. His xwOBA and xSLG are currently his best ever. He also has his highest pull flyball rate. Lets go back to that xBA thing because it goes directly to complaining about this. He's currently pulling fly balls at the his highest% of his career. in 2025 here is the difference between pull% in the air and just balls in the air: Pull: BA: .484 xBA: .394, wOBA: 889 Total: BA: .261, xBA: .252, wOBA: .426 Which is why what Hoerner is doing right now matters. Hoerner over the last three years has a pullair% that has gone from 14.5%, to 17.5%, to 22.5% this year. So sure, his HR% was lower before, but he's turning on more things and hitting the ball less on the ground and hitting more line drives. Remember, you're worried about him losing "singles" but league data says xBA goes up when you pull the ball in the air. Even if we eliminate all home runs, xBA is better on balls in the air pulL% by .40 points league wide. Line drives, which he's doing 8% more of this year has similar results. Data goes way up on ld% vsd gb%. xBA in 2025 on line drives were .619 vs .249. So even if you're worried he's going to lose a few hits with added fly balls, he will add far more by his LD% going up, and he's likely to hit a few more home runs. It's all going to balance out and then some if all of these numbers keep up. At what cost? Right now he's the best version of him ever. So what in the world are we whining about? It's just inventing "maybes" and "what ifs" to be worried about. It's pretty silly.

Yep. Shota is a very good pitcher at this velo. I know we are all bummed about losing Cade. Maybe no one more than me; Cade has been my dude since the draft. But if we get this Shota this year, that's a major upgrade. He is a very good SP when he sits here.

I shared this thread multiple times this off-season and I'd like to share it again. Shota at 92-93 mph is doing exactly what Langin said he'd do. Shota remains a razor thin pitcher with razor thin margins: at 91mph he isn't capable of this. But if the velo sits here in 2026, we have a guy. And this is why the Cubs offered a QO. Because this was worth that risk. 26 swings and misses tonight. 26.

That has everything to do with xBA haha. xBA takes into account angle and EV. What it doesn't take into account is directional hitting. But whoopsies, he hit another home run. Booooo! He really should lower that launch angle.

Not really, though. He's already outpacing his xBA. If he were underperforming his xBA, for example, we could start to dig into why he was giving up hits. Instead he's outpacing it. So he's not giving up hits...he's finding more. He's even increased his xSLG over last year's numbers, but we're probably too early to say much there. If he keeps up his current pace of xwOBA, he'll smash his career high, there. As well, complaining about Nico's EV is just a bad argument. High contact, high swing hitters like Nico have profiles: they swing slower and have lower EV. Why? Because slower swings stay in the zone longer and create more contact. They create less EV and because he's capable of hitting more balls into play that he chases, this will also result in low contact numbers. He's 87th percentile in batting runs value right now. There's next to nothing to complain about here. Sometimes he's going to hit the ball hard and it's not going to be a home run. And to be very clear, he's not pulling the ball any more than normal and he's still "spraying line drives". He has 7% more LD's than last year. And his pull% is the same as last year. So I'm really not sure what more you want. He has traded ground balls in favor of line drives.

His BA is .303 and his xBA is .294.

His breaking ball has always been a really really good pitch. He's worked super hard on the velo aspect of his game. Reports from college were him hitting in the high 80's a bunch. He's such a cool story.