Jason Ross

As a Theilbar truther: it's probably time for him to go.

I'm saying that his slider now moves the other way more and is 2mph harder than it was before. His slowest slider today was still 1mph heavier than his season average. And it wasn't like he was any harder last year on the pitch, either. He's had some arm-side run sliders before, but it still, over the course of the year, was glove side. And it wasn't sitting over 90+ mph either. You can see three sliders in this same PA. Notice: 1. the velo 2. the direction horizontally It differentiates itself from the the slider because it's slower and has less break on the horizontal axis. So it's not mis-identified by Statcast. It also isn't a hot gun, his fastball was 97.4 and Hoby Milner say 85.9 (87mph at MLB this year). It isn't an oddity of today either, he did this last go in Iowa. Is it a new pitch? Is this just a weird two-start thing? Hard to say for sure. But that appears as it is new in some fashion. Something happened. I'm working on an article on the implications of it over the next day or so because I'm still trying to understand it.

Yes. Except, it's the 3rd hardest slider in baseball at this velocity. So...it's a horsefeathers unicorn pitch.

For context: at 90.7mph on this pitch, it would be the third hardest slider thrown by any SP in baseball. Only Jose Fermin throws an arm-side slider at that velocity.

This is today Pay attention to the slider. It's also 2mph higher. We have a new pitch. His slider now has arm side run, not glove side run. It's much harder. He's throwing a reverse slider now and it's much harder. This is a big deal.

A perfect example of the limitations of the eye test for defense.

Now see, Hendricks is your typical FIP beater, though. Your traditional FIP beating profile is someone who throws a lot of strikes, gets a ton of ground balls, doesn't walk people, limits home runs. Sound like anyone? That's literally his entire game. Hendricks is *the* FIP beater. Assad...isn't. He doesn't really limit walks a ton. He doesn't get a lot of ground balls. And yet he's beaten his FIP his entire career. He is an enigma in that sense. By this point we would usually see that regression. And why I find him such an interesting case.

I meant to share this. Thank you for sharing it. I watched this last night and I adored it.

Skubal to Cubs confirmed.

Obviously an anecdote, but Passan said on his podcast he had a pitcher text him and say "I wish the Cubs would trade for me too!" No names, so it could have been someone horrible, so like, this isn't saying Skubal is coming to the Cubs for cheap. The defense the Cubs provide is likely quite interesting for pitchers, though, And that's at least a fun thought.

I think all of this is fair. Truly, a lot of this is wondering aloud and talking into the void about something I don't understand, It's easy to figure out why Tarik Skubal is good. And most of the time it's easy to predict regression. And then there is Javier Assad who just...refuses to regress. And I can't figure out if he's an outlier in that he's just managed to be not-very-good and he's just had a longer clock on turning into a pumpkin or there is a reason why he's able to stem off regression due to some sort of active skill. He seems like the kind of player we might be able to look back on in 15 years and understand him more (though like I said, I'm not sure he's not just a pumpkin and it's taken longer). There are lots of players (hitters more than pitchers) with the tools we had 15 years ago that I liked/disliked that I go back on and think "Oof, buddy. Bad take." And Assad feels like he might fit into that category (and he very well may not).

I think my thought goes back to the Goldstein quote I used. "Getting away from the norm". It's mostly a thought process here, but I'm really curious about outliers in general. Maybe Rea wasn't my best example, I was more thinking about Rea last year and hadn't pulled his page up, so I'll own that one. How about instead, Tanner Bibee. We are on 630 IP of him, he's not a groundball guy, he's not a velo guy, he's not an ultra-walk guy....and yet he's still beating his xFIP constantly at a very real and significant way. He's also a kitchen sink guy. (I think Bibee is better than Assad, he out Stuff+ him so I don't want to really compare the two directly). I think there's a ceiling with a "kitchen sink" approach but I wonder if they achieve a concept of "getting away from the norm" by actively having a handful of pitches in their tool chest. Consider this a thought process and not a research piece. Mostly thinking out-loud in written form as I attempt to square analytics and outliers.

I had used this quote from Kevin Goldstein in my article on Zeferjahn and I think it can apply here: "The further one can get from the norm, the more effective the pitch can be beyond just the pure speed". Now, this really doesn't have to do with speed, and that article was really on the shape of the fastball, so it's not a perfect quote, but like I said, I do think it can apply here. For Assad, the way he gets beyond the "norm" is the pitch mix. His modeling and shapes aren't special on the own, but I think where he "get's further from the norm" is that he can throw a fastball, a sinker, a curveball, a sweeper, a slider, a changeup. That isn't the norm. I'm hoping we eventually get more studies on the "kitchen sink" approach. I do think there's a natural ceiling there - I don't think aces or maybe even "playoff" starters can do this very effectively - but I do think it helps to find guys like Assad who can out kick their natural coverage, if that makes sense.

I agree. It's a very weird thing. My guess is that he's probably a sum of his parts guy who tends to play up over his xFIP in some fashion. I don't believe his true talent is a 3.50 ERA guy. But 400 IP in, and he consistently smashes his xFIP so I also think there's something there. One thing that I do think we need more studies on is the concept of "kitchen sink" throwing. We have seen Colin Rea use kitchen sink to keep hitters off balanced. I think there's a pathway here to FIP beating by just having a lot of offerings to keep the hitter off (in a way this is why Zeferjahn's fastball is so good. Unique pitches stand out and kitchen sink is a different way to offer a unique look). One thing I do think is important is the velocity. At 93-94mph (last night, he was 93.7mph) I think you can make a real argument that he's a quality #5 with the ability to outpace the underlying. Under 93mph he's entirely less interesting. Maybe he was super amped up last night but he carried that velo throughout the game as he was still averaging 94mph on the fastball in the 6th. He also got a lot of ground balls last night, more than normal. He's an enigma. I keep thinking that he'll regress...he just keeps trucking.

He's had some chances to be a starter. Over his career he has a 4.70 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP. This doesn't entirely square with his ERA which is under 3.50 and I think there's a fear that the ERA isn't real. Most of the time when we see a low ERA and a high xFIP, the way you can get there is either "positive luck" in that...you're going to regress sooner rather than later or you are doing something that allows you to beat it like a really low walk total or a lot of ground balls. The weird thing is...he maintains a low ERA but doesn't do the traditional FIP-beating things. He's a ~44% ground ball guy in his career which is alright but not elite. He's a career 9.1% walk rate...not amazing. So I think the fear has been "this guy is about to blow up" because a 4.57 xFIP...is bad. That would be 8th worst in baseball for qualified starters. But here's the swerve; he's been doing this long enough that...maybe he just beats his xFIP? Maybe this is just who he is? He's at 400 innings, it's enough of a sample that you can argue it might be real. He just keeps doing it. And if he throws as hard as he did last night, he's probably better than we thought. You can understand why the Cubs have been and are probably a little hesitant; that velo hasn't always shown up and the underlying data tells us to be hesitant. At the same time, he's probably at a point where you could feel semi-confident about entering a season with him as a #5. He'd be upgradeable at the deadline if it doesn't work out, he wouldn't likely be *so* bad that he's a disaster.

Eddie debuted a new pitch in Iowa: it's a reverse slider. I have no idea what to make of it, yet and I've got a few lines out to some people who might help figure out what to make of it as well. But it's a fascinating development.

It probably doesn't from a numbers stand point with those 6 specifically. I do think they'll piggy Rea and Holmes for a start or two as he fully builds up. And when Cabrera comes up, I do think you can play some games there pushing starts off and moving them around a bit. But I also wonder just how much Cabrera will have been built up. He's missed a good chunk. He might become another bullpen guy where you use him as a supercharged 2-3 innings type and let him air it the hell out.

I'm sure he'll be hit in the feels. He's an athlete. That will hurt. But I think he's a teammate and he understands that he's the next best rotation option on the team. Being in Iowa helps the team right now. And when he comes back, he'll bust ass again like he always done.

With Holmes and Guasman to add, I don't think it's one or the other. My guess is those are the two who will head to Iowa. EDIT: And Milner behind those two shortly.

It's a numbers game and a business. They have to add two more SP's in the next handful of days. Assad has options and options keep guys around for a bit longer. But so do injuries. He'll be back.

My guess is that Assad will head to Iowa, though, tonight shows you what can be on the best of days. Baseball is brutal, and he's likely going to be a causality of "there's no such thing as too much pitching". But it's a tip-of-the-cap that we have gotten to a point, any point this year where we go "you know what? That guy who looked really good? We might have too many guys right now".

I stopped paying attention for a few minutes, popped my head up and immediately said to myself "Who the horsefeathers is Diaz?" until I realized it's just EDWIN DIAZ casually entering a game he's losing because the Dodgers are an all-star team.

It's a top-10 fastball based on shape. Great offering.

Zefer-zshawn.

On June 23rd he moved on the rubber towards 3rd base. He's walked 4 hitters since then, and just one in his last 11 outings.