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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Cabada, Snell, Bailey and Reid are all worthwhile watches, IMO. Myles Bailey is a really fun add. 3rd round prospect from recent draft. Big whiff but maybe the biggest power in the entire system. Missed most of the year with an injury. Pitching in the AFL is historically "meh". Could put on a show and hit the ball a billion feet. Could strike out in every PA.
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I mentioned him above but I'm on the "Lawrence Butler" train. Overall numbers look piss ugly, but he rediscovered his swing recently. Since Aug 1st: 131 wRC+, .370 wOBA, 11 HR, 10.1 BB%, 26.1 K% Shouldn't be super expensive. Probably DH more than anything (not strong defensively) but I think he's a fun buy low candidate.
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I like Seiya, but just do not think this is a team who sinks more money into a 30+ player at a non premium position. Especially one like Suzuki, who, while he's had a good year defensively has certainly been up and down over his career and has some injury recurrences. His market will be very strong and the Cubs just seemingly never get connected to players at non-premium positions like that. I think Skubal is very unlikely just due to the circumstances. But I think Seiya is probably just as unlikely. Whatever they do to at LF/RF will probably be a combination of Shaw/Ramirez and some outside additions (Lawrence Butler is a close friend of PCA and I think he could be a possible option as a cheap trade target, for example). Love Seiya, but more than probably any one on the roster I've come to terms that he probably won't be back. Happy to be surprised, though.
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Skubal's pricetag probably makes him less likely, but honestly, I think Suzuki, not Skubal, is more likely to be somewhere else. Put another way, the Cubs spending a mega-contract on Skubal is more likely to me than the Cubs paying market value for a RF/DH. Both in terms of how I think the Cubs operate, but also what they will prioritize in the offseason, what they already have and how they view roster building in general.
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I've heard that one of the issues with Imai has to deal with soft skills and comfortability. Houston has never had an NPB player come over and apparently he's very schedule oriented and has struggled with this. Is that everything going on? Can't say. I was a big Imai guy so seeing him suck has been a bummer. I was rooting for him regardless of org.
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Kaima Taira is a SP the Cubs scouted recently. He's an interesting option, but one that I wouldn't be banking on. For a lack of a better way to explain it, think "What if Moises Ballesteros, but pitcher?" He's listed at 5'8" and over 200lbs, so first, the reason I brought up Mo is...well...he's an awkward looking human being. That shouldn't disqualify him, but I think it's important to note that for the comparison. Secondly is a question of "is this dude a SP?" When the Cubs saw him he sat comfortably at 97mph apparently, and has hit 100mph, but he's been a career reliever for most of his career. He logged 150 IP in 2023, then got hurt and went back to relieving and is back as a SP this year. He will be 27 when he comes stateside, so he'd have two years of starting under his belt and important to remember they go less in NPB. Can he hold up as a guy who goes every 5? He's a really fun dude. The stuff can really pop at times. He's on record talking about pitching science and data. But whether or not he holds up is a question.
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Yeah, I totally get that. Baseball owners are about the most easy group on the planet (sports wise) to despise. The Dodgers have some benefits (their TV deal is nuts!) so they spend more than others, but overall, the other 29 owners are nearly all shades of "has more money but cries poor" (and then there's the even worse group of "refuses to spend money and steals all of the revenue sharing" group).
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The Dodgers haven't signed everyone. They were thought to be the guaranteed winners of Trea Turner a few years ago, same for Corey Seager. They didn't sign Bichette last offseason. They didn't sign Bregman. They didn't get Juan Soto. They didn't sign Aaron Judge. The Dodgers will certainly splash money. I wouldn't expect that to stop any time soon. But they also won't sign everyone. They have not gotten every top-of-the-market free agent and while it's probable that they will be involved in most of them, there's nothing stopping the Cubs from signing Skubal.
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There's no reason the Cubs cannot do both. This shouldn't be a "what-about-ism" and two things can be true at the same time: 1. The Chicago Cubs do need to develop more arms. Internally the hope is that with Tyler Zombro now as the pitching director, a conveyor belt will be created. But this takes considerable time. You don't just find pitchers under the pillow. The Brewers don't either. If the Cubs do this correctly, it's probably two or three years down the road before we really see the fruits. 2. The Chicago Cubs have the resources to go get one of the X-best SP's this offseason and should do just that. Even more so if the first step is going to take years.
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He's said nothing of the sort. Not only would Scott Boras have to do considerable damage control (at what point would the Dodgers have to offer him a big contract if he said that?) but it'd be the first time any free agent of any sort did that months before they become a FA. Any comments he's made have been just general praise for organizations but not really anything that should make anyone believe he's signing with LAD immediately. I know everyone has this defeatist attitude about all free agents who are good, but the Dodgers won't sign everyone and the Cubs can sign players. I think we can be skeptical without defeatist (not saying you are for the record, just the general sentiment across Cubdom).
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As with the offseason, I wouldn't put him in the plans, but we should also realize that Skubal is going to plug the market. You can *probably* get someone like David Peterson, who was essentially on the DFA-chopping block mid-year and isn't going to be heavily valued in on a quick one/two year deal with a team like the Cubs (it's kind of perfect-storm placement for him, to be fair). Peterson builds value to hit the market again at 32 or 33 and the Cubs get a back-end guy. Win-win. Beyond that, the market is likely going to be a standstill. Even with the CBA stuff. It probably speeds up a bit (teams and players don't have the time to dance in a protracted offseason) but Skubal is going to set the market and then the market will follow (as we usually see). So I think we can do two things: 1. Enter the market with Skubal in mind, do our thing 2. Understanding backup plans
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I'd sign one of Holmes/Peterson quick, and then I'd be heavily focused on Skubal. I know, I know, everyone is going to dog pile with the "the Cubs would never" thing, and they deserve skepticism there, but there's some belief on the part of people who have some knowledge on these things that the Cubs have admired Skubal and their belief is they will be involved. Based on those things we can fully assume they know the general price at that point and they know Boras. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but if I really think about everything, I'm more inclined to believe the first mega contract they would dole out would be a SP regardless of their roster construction and given their roster construction and potential generational type talent on a team-friendly deal? This is the time.
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Good win. Offense looked really good; they beat up on Lopez the way you'd hope. Assad a little iffy in the pen, but whatever. David Peterson, very good. Since coming to Chicago Peterson has been shockingly good: 4.15 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 3.99 xFIP. 20.6 K%, 10.6% BB%, You'd hope for a bit better walk and strikeout rate, but a 50% groundball rate will help erase the walks. As an aside, I think he's shown enough worth to consider a multi-year contract (Two years and like a third option with a buyout on his end?) as a good 4/5 option for a rotation that could probably use that.
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He's not the dominant pitcher he was five years ago, but he's 99th percentile chase, 81st percentile whiff, 70th percentile xERA. You aren't going to score a lot off of him, and it's not really a winning proposition.
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Should be an interesting matchup as both teams are similar to each other. The Braves pitch better than the Cubs and the Cubs hit better than the Braves, but both are definitely slanted towards being offensive teams who have to out-hit. their pitching. Obviously the Braves have Sale, but beyond him, Lopez and Perez should be very "gettable". Bullpen wise, they can close games out well (Lee, Fuentes and Iglesias) but they are pretty mortal if you can take a lead and miss that trio. I'm not a "must win" a series kind of guy, but this feels like the kind of series you want to see the Cubs take two out of from an aesthetic standpoint.
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YEAH! ZEFERJAHN.,
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Josiah Hartshorn & Ángel Cepeda to AA
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I would say very little. AFL isn't really where the best pitching is and Hartshorn has played more baseball this year more than he likely ever has. Let him play a couple of playoff games in Knoxville, tip your cap "good season, kid" and let him rest and get ready for next year. -
This doesn't come from an angry position but can I ask *why* you hate that stat? Do you hate it because there is a legitimate flaw? Or because it doesn't jive with your vibes? I ask that not to be a jerk or some righteous ass, but just because I think most of the time when we see a statistic and hate it, it's just because it doesn't match our world view (i.e. the sky is falling because of the bullpen) versus it being a bad statistic.
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"If 'ifs and buts' were candy and nuts..." Your entire post history has mostly come down to "what is actually happening/happened" versus "what is maybe happening in the future". The Cubs should trade PCA because of (insert some random Chicken Little sky-is-falling thing in the future)" I'd rather be the Brewers because (insert prediction of the future). It's very easy to make hot-take predictions about things in the future, friend. When cornered on an opinion, this is what you run to. But when happens if the Brewers don't win a World Series this year? Are we just going to pivot to them winning it...next year?
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- craig counsell
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Wiggins isn't ready. Velo isn't right and despite the better run of games in which he hasn't been scored on, he hasn't looked particularly good. From a pure "eye-test" standpoint, Shelby Miller looks closer to really helping and he has been bombed on a few of his goes. But the stuff looks sharp, I think it's more of a "shaking off a years' worth of rust" with him and could click any time. Wiggins just doesn't look entirely right and I wouldn't mess with that in September.
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Hard to tell. The hope is "yes" but we're probably in the baby-steps of that process. Tyler Zombro is on year-two in the organization, but really his first real year of having authority outside of "a guy in the room". He was heavily invested in the draft this year where the Cubs took 15 arms. Pitchers, however, rarely get run their draft year (to lessen the load) so we haven't seen most of these guys. We have seen a few of them pop up and they look promising! That's well before winter workouts, labs, etc. really work on their changes. Cade Townsend is self-reporting throwing two mph faster with lowered arm slot, too. But we also probably won't see the fruits of this for a few years. A few drafts. Most of these players will not develop and it's the nature of the beast. But I can say that it felt like a different type of draft with who they went after and I'd imagine that is heavily due to Zombro. For the orgs sake, they really should hope this is the guy. I can tell you the Cubs weren't the only organization interested in giving him a lot of runway, and is why he was promoted so quickly.
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Sports can do that to you. They can make a good day great, and a bad day terrible. But I enjoy being invested for the sense of community. Just my two cents but the baseball community, here, PSD, and elsewhere that I have been able to cultivate and be apart of has been really fun. And if sometimes I have to get annoyed because some human I've never met let another human I've never met hit the ball very, very far...feels like a small price to pay. That said I have learned never to get overly upset any more. Young me was more emotionally invested on every pitch. Generally speaking it happens very few and far between now. All things in moderation.
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The thought of 2am Denny's now a days gives me heartburn no Tums could control.
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I have cats. I only get to hug those idiots on their terms. (Those terms are always at 2am, when I am dead asleep and they think it's breakfast time. It is, in fact, not breakfast time at 2am. Ever.)
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Ya'll know me real well. I rarely get frustrated, if ever, at baseball. I enjoy to get excited, and stow away the anger and the negative feelings. It's just so rarely worth them. But tonight? Tonight I am frustrated.
