Jason Ross

I did not. Never advocated and demanded it. I expected it because I thought it was an easy change; much easier to fire a coach than an entire team. I'm also a fan of new ideas where/when you can. But I was also careful to mention I didn't think it was a necessity, just that I can see why you'd do it. Whether you like him or not, whether you believe him or not, the Cubs have turned the keys to the pitching kingdom over to Zombro. And all I really want is to let the team see that out. There's just no reason for half measures. He either is the dude or he isn't and I'm a big fan of finding that out in 2027. If he wanted a new pitching coach...so be it. If he didn't (which I would assume he didn't) so be that.

Think we're just in "transfer window" mode. This is around when teams change coaching staffs and front offices generally. The Cubs hired Counsell on November 7th, as an example, in 2023. This feels like the right time to make those choices.

I thought he would be an easy fall guy and a place for Zombro to insert someone he wanted. I'd take this as Zombro and Hottovy work well together and that the Cubs generally don't blame Hottovy. I think that's fine; injuries aren't his fault and the young players on the farm are Zombro anyways. New ideas can be good, but a good working relationship is all I care about. The Cubs are kind of all in on Zombro so whomever he thinks is best is fine with me. We might as well let him cook.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Entering the 2026 season, there was little clarity on the future of longtime starting second baseman Nico Hoerner. After being drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the first round of the 2018 draft, he's become a mainstay of the Wrigley Field infield. His most recent extension (signed in 2024), which bought out his arbitration years, was set to expire at the end of the season and it was hard to tell if the team would look to extend another one of their infielders. Over the last two years his name had even come up in trade rumors, and while those don't seem to have gone far, it highlights that his future was at the very least in some doubt at. Things changed on March 29, when the then-28-year-old signed a six year, $141 million dollar extension to keep him in the Windy City for the bulk of his career. Immediately, Hoerner responded with one of the best months of his career, posting a sterling .291/.370/.449 line (good for a 130 wRC+) through April. It looked like he had unlocked a new gear, flashing some added power to go along with his Gold Glove defense. On May 6, things were going so well that the Chicago Sun-Times called him the "MVP" of the young season. Things hit a snag, however, as Hoerner went into a prolonged slump for much of the rest of the first half, finishing with a wRC+ that was below 80 at the All-Star Break. While he found some more juice in the second half, the overall numbers never fully rebounded, resulting in the worst full-season offensive year of his career. So, what went wrong? And more importantly, should the Cubs (and you) be concerned? First off, I think if we asked Hoerner about his 2026 season, he would be the first to tell you that it wasn't good enough. He admitted as much on July 24th this year; "I haven't produced," the second baseman said in an interview for MLB.com. "I haven't helped the team score runs." If he pulled up his own FanGraphs' page, he may even point you to his 74 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, or his 76 wRC+ in high-leverage as proof. But I think it's also important to remember that Hoerner is the ultimate competitor; he's not going to give himself a break regardless. I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that his standards for himself are so high that they're next-to-impossible to live up to. It's very hard to get to the highest levels of this sport, even harder to stay, and harder yet to have fully earned a $141 million dollar extension. Being ultra competitive is certainly one way to push yourself to get there, and more importantly, to stay there. But let me give everyone a moment of relief: The Cubs' Gold Glove second baseman was essentially the same guy in 2026 as he was in 2025 when he posted a 110 wRC+ and had a career high 4.8 fWAR. Below you'll see a chart comparing his two seasons and they are shockingly similar. In fact, his expected wOBA are identical between the two seasons. The two places that really stand out are his batting average and his BABIP. His batting average was 33 points lower from year to year, which is likely due to his BABIP being 38 points lower. Your first reaction may be to think that there is a reason for his BABIP dropping, which is exactly what you should think in instances like this. If a hitter is suddenly making worse contact, you can expect less balls to find their way down safely, and looking for that data will help to tell us whether this is simply luck or earned. However, that expected data is trying to tell us something that a deeper dive into his overall profile confirms: we should probably relax. Nico Hoerner's demise does not appear to be upon us. One place we can see this is simply in his expected batting average. Despite hitting .263 on the year, his expected batting average was .297. Much like the second baseman's xwOBA, it's literally identical to his actual batting average the season before. And the reason why is clear when we compare his overall profile from 2026 to years past: there's almost nothing separating him. He is a shockingly consistent player. So, what's the cause for the sharp difference in what we should have expected and what happened? It's most likely just a combination of balls finding gloves and bad variance. "Bad luck" can be a tough sell to some, but in this case, I'm not seeing any massive red flags moving forward. That's not to say that it was all perfect; anecdotally, we all remember really ugly plate appearances, times in which he probably could have (and should have) done better in a specific moment, or even weeks where it just wasn't clicking. But those are all normal ebbs and flows for any MLB player. When you take a 500-foot look at his season, zooming all the way out he looks just fine. He made about the same amount of contact, swung at the same amount of strikes, and hit the ball about as well as he's ever hit them. That isn't to say there aren't areas of improvement that can help him moving forward, though. One thing you can usually count on Hoerner to do is hit fastballs really well. Last year; not so much. Both in terms of actual production (.268 wOBA) and theoretical production (.319 xwOBA), he wasn't "right." A dive under the hood shows that he's just getting under the ball far too often on fastballs and is popping them up a bit too often. Pop-ups are akin to an automatic out, as much as a strikeout is in almost every case. He had 61 cases of making "poor/under" contact on four-seams last year which was third-most in the league. This is an area of his game he can clean up. Despite the struggles offensively, Hoerner remains an excellent defender, posting a +4 in DRS and a +9 OAA at second. While his DRS was a bit low compared to 2025, his OAA was exactly what it was in 2024 and I'm inclined to believe OAA over DRS anyway. He was not nearly as good at shortstop, but that's to be expected as he rounds out his 20s; his arm was never really strong enough for the position to begin with, though he did fill in for the injured Swanson admirably down the stretch. Baserunning-wise, he was yet again a positive force on the bases. He stole a few less bases, but this is mostly due to being on base less on the year. He still provided the team with nearly +4 runs of baserunning value according to Fangraphs, while his sprint speed stayed relatively the same as it's been. Eventually he'll slow down here, but there seems to be nothing imminent suggesting a decline in this phase of his game. Final Grade: C+ Ultimately, it's a little tricky to grade Hoerner's season on the whole. Regardless of the processes, he didn't provide a ton of offensive value for a good deal of the year. And while it's almost assuredly that bad variance is the primary culprit, it doesn't retroactively put runs on the board, either. Defensively, he was generally as good as ever and remains a positive on the bases, so despite the 88 wRC+, he was still worth 2.8 fWAR (which allowed him to finish tied for 10th in the league at his position) in total. So, while it may be hard to give a fair grade for 2026, I remain confident in him moving forward, remain happy with the extension, and expect he'll be much more like the guy he was between 2023-25. View full article

On paper, it's probably a very good thing. I think in practice, what it actually does is going to be less than what people think it will. The new CBA is probably going to come with an IFA draft in some fashion. We can debate the good/bad of that in terms of a moral stand point, but it's something I fully expect the owners want and the players to budge on. What that does to IFA scouting is probably going to be a decent change. Having someone from an organization who's been pretty good at IFA scouting is a good start, but as we've seen with the MLB draft, there's a game-within-the-game aspect of it. I'd expect something like that in an IFA draft. How good Miller, or anyone, is at that part is going to be unknown.

Count me way out on Duran. 2024 was excellent and 2025 was mostly good, but the drop from '24 to '25 was already there. His approach numbers have also got to hell; and they were never good. 2024 is the clear outlier. He's now over 30 and appears to be capable of causing headaches for organizations. LF is not like SS or C where you look at the available options and think "is it worth it for me to deal with a headache?" because there are plenty of players who won't be headaches and are also risky profiles. In other words, outside of 2024, he was basically "Ian Happ" at the plate posting wRC+ of 122 in 2023 and 113 in 2025 with good LF defense. He's very platoon dependent as well, posting a 115 wRC+ against RHP over his career and a 71 vs LHP. I think the Cubs can find a different reclamation that I'd feel more comfortable with both on the field and off of it.

I'm fine losing Banner. Not to say he probably didn't have important roles, but secondary people leaving gives the organization a good chance to add new, fresh ideas. Carter Hawkins could go in the same way and would feel the same (there are some out there who I know cannot stand Hawkins so take that for what it's worth, too). Kantrovitz I'd sing a different tune. He's kind of "the guy" in many ways. I'd be very bummed to see the org need to replace him.

Yeah Ricketts sucks. I think all of the owners suck, to be fair, in one way or another. The Dodgers spend money but did so in what looks like a way that hides revenues. The Pirates steal revenue sharing. The Cubs don't act like a big market. And they all exploit kids in IFA.

I think we have to work from a very simple premise: neither side is doing anything altruistic or out of the goodness of their heart. When we can accept that, we can likely accept that any cap and floor concept proposed by the owners is not going to be paying players more. The only way that is going to happen is with outside forces and open, public knowledge of what revenues are there. The only way we can get open books is by dropping their anti-trust laws, laws that none of the other sports have, that also have a cap/floor. The reason an NFL salary cap works is that it is percentage based, and revenue streams are clear. If there is no loss of anti-trust, and to be very clear the MLB ownership has not proposed that in any shape or form, than any salary cap and floor in any discussion will not result in players making more money. How much money those teams actually make would be impossible to determine. Teams would hide things and cook books because they wouldn't be required to share their information. I can accept the cap/floor argument if the anti-trust is gone and they do it like the NFL. Open books, and a fair percentage split is fine. But anything short of that is not going to help players and we should know that. The numbers we throw around don't interest me much; they're just random hypotheticals made up by people looking for fairness. The owners are not looking for fairness; they are looking for profits. I also don't trust teams to not circumvent them. NHL teams have for 15+ years traded players who are effectively retired to make their "salary floor". They cooked weird long contracts (like signing 37 year olds to nine year deals) to spread out LT while front loading the actual pay. It allowed them to dump the cap number on a small market who then would reap the benefit of the "floor" while paying them the actual salary of "league minimum" while they stayed at home, effectively retired for half a decade. MLB teams will find a loop hole. They are already doing that with revenue sharing and where that money goes; both on the top end (Dodgers) and the bottom end (Pirates). Beyond that, the number of players a roster in a particular sport has is immaterial and we're moving goal posts. The point is that the salary cap has not created any more or less parity in those sports. It hasn't stopped a "clear best team". That is sports.

It really does. There's a lot of soft-skill stuff that seems to be what the Cubs look for. A lot of times they aren't just losing for the baseball player, but the person, too. That isn't to say the Cubs are solely unique in that, but they do appear to really put a good deal on clubhouse fits, personality and the man attached to the glove. Taima feels like his personality fits that. And I think that NPB pipeline thing matters a lot here. Unlike Sato (who I'm currently in the thrawls of a deep dive of right now), Taira feels much more Cub-like. And while I don't believe there is an NPB mandate, I doubt the Cubs want to lose both Japanese stars in one offseason with no replacement. If we're picking the available options, Taira is the guy there. (I'll also add another reason I don't think they'd do Sato is because the Hanshin Tigers have another OF'er who the Cubs probably would salivate over and think they'll be in on him when they post him in a year or so named Shota Morishita).

St. Louis pizza is gross. It uses provel cheese. Blech.

The only way a salary cap and a floor will increase pay for players is if the MLB drops it's Anti-Trust protections like the NFL and have open and public revenue. The Dodgers are already finding ways to shirk and skirt sharing revenue from their broadcast stream. The Cubs can claim "biblical losses" because they hide gameday revenue and classify things on and off the books for their benefit. All teams do this. Here's the rub: as long as the Anti-Trust is in place, anything would be an utter sham set by owners. And if you think owners are suggesting they lose this, or that they're trying to implement a floor/cap that would in any way be fair or benefit players, I have a bridge to sell you. Beyond that there is study after study that suggest MLB does not have a parity problem compared to other sports. If you're worried about the Dodgers, let me introduce you to the Patriots and the Chiefs. Or the Florida Panthers. The OKC Thunder. All sports have hegemons. But in total parity, the MLB is just fine compared to others with a cap and a floor. As Bertz said, the Dodgers spending *so* much more is probably a bit of an issue. But there are ways to solve that beyond lazy caps and floors the owners want.

The extension was wild to me, too. He's such a beast when it comes to data and bettering himself. Sincerely, I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone "max out" as much as this dude; he does more with less. He has consistently bet on himself. This didn't really need to be in the article, but he told the Lions in 2023 he wouldn't resign unless they made him a starter and they balked at first because they didn't believe in him. He works so hard to be the best he can. It's easy to come away after spending 5-6 hours in constant research of someone as impressed, but man I really like Kaira. I love his YouTube. I love how he just keeps doing. There are some flaws there but if there's someone who's going to bust his ass to be the best he can, this dude is that. Truly, I keep going back to his youtube and trying to learn more from him. And yeah, I do think this is a near perfect fit for him and the Cubs. There's a real need and I'm 100% sure Taira knows the Cubs have a defense for him.

I wouldn't say it's guile. He was leading the NPB in K% and his fastball can hit 99mph. He isn't going to show up and Jacob Misiorowski his way into a fastball-bully, but whiffs and strikeouts come in many ways. Shota Imanaga managed to be a whiff merchant at 91mph. Taira is a sum-of-the parts, though. He's got good stuff that plays up because he's absolutely maximizing his body and delivery. He gets a lot of ground balls because he knew his defense; he speaks about this on his Youtube. He knew who his infield was and he used it. He has 7 pitches and becomes a different beast against RHP and LHP. I wouldn't expect Taira to be a TORP or an ace type, but he feels like a really solid Robin to a Batman. The walks will probably limit the ceiling but the groundballs and mindset likely raise the floor.

The Chicago Cubs have invested heavily in Japanese talent in recent years. It started in February 2018, when the team signed right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish to a six-year deal, making him the first high-prized Japanese star the club had signed since Kosuke Fukudome the decade before. That was after Darvish had already been in the majors for years, so it wasn't the same as when they signed Fukudome before the 2008 season, but it was a marker laid down. Despite trading Darvish after the "biblical" losses of the COVID-19-shortened season, the Cubs kept getting value from him through the 2021-22 offseason. That winter, Darvish helped convince Seiya Suzuki to make Chicago his next destination. In January 2024, the Cubs signed left-handed starter Shota Imanaga as their next Japanese import. Amid those high-profile signings, the Cubs pursued Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki and Tatsuya Imai to varying degrees. Recently, the organization promoted Kenta Namoto to scouting director. It's clear they remain interested in being a destination for players from Japan and are always looking for new talent abroad. This offseason will probably see the departure of the two current Japanese-born players from the team's roster. As reported by The Athletic, the Cubs are "unlikely to win a bidding war for Seiya Suzuki", and with their need for high-upside arms, Shota Imanaga's home run issues are also likely to reduce the team's interest in retaining him. However, with NPB star pitcher Kaira Taima likely to be posted this offseason, the Cubs may not have to wait long to replenish their stores of Japanese talent. But who exactly is Kaira Taima? And why might the Cubs be interested? Kaima Taira - The Positives Kaima Taira finished the 2026 season with the best ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball, at 1.36. If that number feels shockingly low; it is. In fact, it's the fourth lowest ERA ever posted in NPB, behind only two other players whom you may recognize: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Masahiro Tanaka, both of whom went on to significant MLB success. He also finished fifth in pitching WAR, according to NPB Basement, the Japanese equivalent of Statcast and FanGraphs. The first thing that jumps off the page about Taira is his fastball, which looks to be a very good offering, at least based on velocity and location. Sitting roughly 95 MPH on average (with the ability to peak near 100), he pounds the top of the zone with the pitch. Often, Japanese pitchers throw at the knees more than their American counterparts. Imanaga had to shift from throwing his fastball lower to the upper third when he came Stateside. Not Taira: he locates his fastball at the very top of the zone, and locates it well. He generated a ton of whiff on the pitch—much more whiff than we should expect in America, but it was a plus offering for the righty in Japan, even going by MLB standards. Even better is that Taira has a deep arsenal of pitches to pull from. He can attack right-handed hitters with a sweeper-sinker combination off the fastball and left-handed hitters with a cutter-splitter-changeup mix. You can see, above, how he's already varied in his pitch mix. The sweeper, for example, is used far less against lefties, while the changeup disappears against righties. So not only does he have good fastball placement, he is a ready-made thinker on the mound, when it comes to attacking hitters. Taira uses his mix to great effect, striking out nearly a quarter of hitters faced last year. More important than the swing-and-miss in his game, however, is just how many ground balls he generates. In 2026, he managed a ground-ball rate of 49.3%. Keeping the ball on the ground ensures balls don't fly over the fence. They can also turn luck back your way: When someone finds a hole or works a walk (something that tends to be a bit of a bugaboo), having the routine double play in your back pocket is a great way to erase a base runner before they have a chance to score. You don't have to take my word for it, either. The righty is very open with how he views the game. He's a big fan of data and using science to get the most out of his game. It's not surprising, then, to see that he's already ahead of the curve in terms of where he's placing his fastball and how he attacks hitters. Not only is a data-driven pitcher, he is very open with his game, posting YouTube shorts and videos where he discusses his philosophy, offers lessons and explanations on his specific pitches and talks about life in general He's clearly both a student and a teacher of the game, and while this may not be a "hard" skill, soft skills like that can often translate on and off the mound for someone in an entirely new land. It's likely this understanding of the game (and the desire to keep bettering himself) that has led him to get strong reviews for his mechanics. We'll talk more about his frame (and the negatives of it) later, but what he may not have in pure physical tools, he can make up for by being a hard worker who finds success on the margins. One way that he does that is by managing 6'8" of extension as he barrels down the mound at opposing hitters. While this wouldn't be elite extension in the majors, Twins' starting pitcher Joe Ryan also has 6'8" extension and finished in the 89th percentile last year. This will help his fastball play up, beyond pure velocity. Again, if you aren't gifted the physical tools, sometimes you have to find a way around thatm and Taima has found some ways around his limitations. Tread Athletics (the independent player-development facility now-Cubs pitching guru Tyler Zombro helped to found) highlighted his mechanics to show how, despite being a relative short king on the mound, Taira is able to use his legs to get into his fastball. This is another way that he can take the hand he was dealt and use it to his advantage. He's able to use creative mechanics to really get into his physicality and get results. It shouldn't be surprising that a pitcher who has a deep love for understanding the game has managed to get the most out of himself on the mound. Kaima Taira - The Negatives As fun as Taima can be, there are a few elephants in the room that need to be factored in before any team signs the enigmatic righty from the Seibu Lions. The first and obvious one is that Taira doesn't look like most starting pitchers. In fact, he'd be essentially a unicorn in Major League Baseball in terms of his body composition. As of 2025, the average height of MLB pitchers was roughly 6'2". Pitchers such as Jacob Misiorowski stand 6'7" or taller. Taira is (generously) listed at 5'8", which would make him one of the shortest hurlers in the league. He also comes in at roughly 220 pounds. This isn't to body shame anyone, but to point out that a pitcher of Taima's size is quite unusual and how that body holds up to the pressures of a full MLB starting load is effectively anyone's guess. With any undersized pitcher, there are real durability questions. Earlier, I mentioned that Taima finished with the best ERA in NPB and the fifth-most WAR; but the reason he wasn't first in both is because he didn't accrue as many innings as other starters. In 2026, 17 NPB starting pitchers threw more innings. Moreover, Taira doesn't have a lot of history as a starter; he's spent most of his time as a reliever with the Lions. He got a chance to start back in 2024, but dealt with a few injuries, forcing him back to the bullpen in 2025. How well he can handle pitching more often in the States is certainly a question mark any team who signs him will have to be okay with. Beyond durability, Taira is not perfect on the mound. One thing that stands out: he's prone to walking hitters. While a 7.9% walk rate is not absurd for MLB, it was high for NPB, as just four pitchers had more walks than the righty. For comparison's sake, Tomoyuki Sugano had a 2.6% walk rate, Imanaga a 4.0%, Yamamoto had a 4.4%, Imai had a 7% rate and Sasaki walked 7.1% of hitters in their final seasons in Japan. Taira walked more than almost any other high-profile Japanese pitcher who's planned a move to the States. This is why it's a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground so often. There are also some questions on his stuff—notably, the shape of his fastball. There just isn't much ride to it. While NPB Basement doesn't provide exact pitch data, it's estimated that the fastball sits at a pretty poor IVB. One of the things that made Imanaga's fastball so special is that he was able to achieve good carry from a low release point. Taira's fastball does not have the same IVB and will effectively "sink" more. The good news, is as Tread Athletics points out, a shorter pitcher and a flat release (both of which are definitely true of Taira) can fight poor IVB, but the pitch on its own doesn't look to have outlier or special shape. Are Kaima Taira and the Chicago Cubs A Good Fit? The Chicago Cubs have had more than their share of pitching problems. Between injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele, under-performance from Edward Cabrera and a lack of ready-to-go pitching depth in the minor leagues, the organization struggled last season on the mound. Despite finishing with the third-worst fWAR of any pitching staff, the Cubs managed to make the playoffs with 89 wins, but they can't rely on out-hitting their opponents every season. On top of being a poor staff on paper, they are also about to lose Matthew Boyd, Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson and Clay Holmes to free agency, less anyone from that group whom they re-sign. The positional need is obvious, but positional need is just one part of this. Stylistically, Taira seems a great fit. He's a pitcher who gets a good number of strikeouts, comes with a ready-made arsenal and would be able to keep the ball on the ground. The Cubs boast one of the best defenses in baseball, and one could argue they have an all-world infield defense, with Gold Glove nominees at second, short and third. It also shouldn't be lost on anyone that Tread Athletics has posted positively about Taira multiple times, either. While I doubt Tyler Zombro is their social media manager, there appears to be overlap between how the Cubs' pitching czar views slinging the baseball and how Taira goes about his game. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to hear that the Cubs are already one of the teams who have been connected to him. From Taira's standpoint, the Chicago Cubs are also a very attractive destination. The NPB star has pitched for the Seibu Lions for the entirety of his career and the Lions have one of the best defenses in Japan. Shortstop Soske Genda is a nine-time winner of Japan's Golden Glove. Genda's double-play partner is Natsuo Takizawa, who is a highlight reel on his own. Taira leaned into his stellar defense, and having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner as replacements wouldn't be lost on the hurler. That doesn't even begin to add in some of the soft stuff the organization seemingly does for their newest members. There's a reason Darvish spoke highly about his time in Chicago; that should make them an even more attractive option than what they offer on the field. Lastly, there's the Scott Boras part of the equation, as the notable super agent is Taira's rep. Jed Hoyer and Boras clearly have a working relationship. Boras represents players such as Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman, both of whom have signed with the Cubs over the last few seasons. This should at least give the two sides a good foundation and understanding of each other before a single number is exchanged. When he is eventually posted, there will be no shortage of suitors for the right-handed pitcher. He will be (much, much, much) cheaper than Tarik Skubal, and with the questions on body size, durability and control, he's more akin in total value to where Imanaga stood two years ago. This will bring many teams to the table initially. But the Cubs can offer a unique situation for the pitcher with their defense, and Taira offers a unique set of skills and some upside to go along with it. It's too early to make any definitive predictions, but it would be surprising if the two weren't in contact this winter, as the Cubs look to shore up a bottom-of-the-barrel pitching staff and Taira looks to find a home in Major League Baseball. It really may be a match made in heaven. View full article

Two things can be true at the same time: 1. Teams who spend more give themselves a wider birth at winning. This isn't an "at" anyone in particular, but it's pretty basic to think "spending more money is a good thing" as a general rule of thumb. Obviously, you have to do so with some semblance of intelligence, but you get the point. 2. A salary cap will not increase parity. While it's true most of the World Series winning teams have had a higher payroll the sport has not had a parity issue for a while. This year reinforces that even if it goes against the normal run of "teams who spend more win more" that we normally see.

Yeah velocity is definitely a great place to start. I do think that the next "frontier" is going to be big repertoires and ways to keep hitters off tilt. While I doubt velocity will become "easy" we're seeing the barrier for entry to the MLB go beyond just velo. Antoine Kelly would probably have been a dude 15-20 years ago and now he can't find an MLB organization to stick in. Hitters will adapt to just velo. So you have to do something more than just throw hard. It's probably a bit because of my own recency bias, but Kaima Taira feels a bit "next gen" in this. He throws seven different pitches. He's super data driven. In a lesser sense, Janson Junk as well. He doesn't do anything particularly great except throw a lot of different horsefeathers. He's not a star but I'd guess he probably isn't capable of sticking around if he threw four pitches.

Not impossible but I find it incredibly unlikely. If I'm Shota, I'm not signing a one-year deal this offseason. I just finished with the 24th best ERA, I threw 32 times. I had a good chase and whiff numbers. HR's are ugly, but all the underlying data minus fWAR thinks I'm good. And if you're a bWAR deciple it's a 2.0 fWAR; that usually gets multiple years. From a Cubs' perspective, you're well aware of the thin margins he runs. If the walks increase, if the velo drops...there's real concerns. And the reality is that the Cubs are best designed to help pitchers who get the ball on the ground; Shota doesn't. Like, I'm not going to say "it's 0%" but I think he's very unlikely to return. You didn't think he was one of your two best SP last year; he didn't get a playoff start. I'm not sure how much he would have seen in Game 3 either. You probably cannot go into 2027 with him as your 2nd best SP. Or your third.

The draft is definitely different. And it was very much a gamble. This was a draft very much about Tyler Zombro and giving him the types of pitchers he wants. If Zombro is the guy the Cubs think he is, it's likely a class that will produce some of the pitching we want. If Zomrbo isn't, it probably won't be good. But that's what you kind of have to do when you promote someone like Zombro the way they did. Either let him cook, or it's a waste. I doubt it'll be a lateral move though. Because it feels like it either will push the org forward or likely suggest they're just not capable of developing pitching with this regime. For better or worse.

I really liked him too. Sincerely, one of the best personalities around the team. I hope he ends up in like SF or Seattle (even though they have a ton of pitching). Just because I want to see him in a stadium that the home runs die in and he can find a few extra years of success.

In a way it's why I'm rooting for it to end up being Brewers vs whomever. It's really hard for the owners to cry about salary caps when the Rays or the Guardians are playing the Brewers. And as someone who hates the idea of owners getting richer and ruining the sport more than they can, any egg on their face is something I'm in favor of.

I don't know. I kind of hate the Brewers' and their "Oh shucks, no one knows who we are" schtick right now. That annoys the ever loving hell out of me. But I probably don't dislike the Brewers more than the Cardinals and it's just recency bias. I don't usually get too wrapped up in hating anyone or anything any more. And hate fuels views.

Yeah there are a lot of ways we can look at NPB numbers. It's hard to always get a 1:1 on things but things such as groundball rate and fly ball rate, for one, are super consistent. Hell, they're consistent from Triple-A to the MLB too because they deal with a lot of pitch type, mix and shape and those don't really change much (they will as they go from NPB ball to MLB, but outside of that it shouldn't change much). There are others that we should be more wary of. Like, I'll let the cat out of the bag, I like Kaima Taira a good bit after a few hours of video and research but his fastball whiff% isn't going to stick at the MLB level. A 95mph heater in Japan is top of the chart. At the MLB level it's average. There are aspects of it that make it better than average, I think, but I'd be a bit worried about it.