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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    That's a good way to look at it. No one is going to jump the top-2 regardless (I really like AJ Garcia and there is no way I'm putting him above the tier-2 guys you listed). I do think there's a good chance that the Cubs find savings to draft a big bonus-baby in the the fourth round (maybe the fifth to give them a day to shop) but even then it's a prep guy (almost assuredly) and even then you're still at a guy that probably deserves to be in the Kepley/Wing cat, and would need to rocketship himself up next year.
  2. Jason Ross
    Joe Doyle has the Cubs taking Cade Townshend. Mentions Daniel Jackson. He's always a good one to listen to. A few years ago he had the Cubs on Cade Horton before most else.
  3. Jason Ross
    I feel the most confident predicting college bat with 1.23. I like Jackson a bit more than Rose, but you can also blame me for being a Louisville-hater (which I am). When I cut through my hatred of all things red-and-black, Rose has tools the Cubs would like and his ability to potentially play CF is something the team has targeted as an under-the-radar type. Maybe AJ Gracia drops, but I think they want to save slot and Rose and Jackson probably save some.
  4. Jason Ross
    The same argument can be used for why you can't make a trade. If we are worried about teams entering the fray, we have to wait for some of the floating around teams to drop out. The Twins just added a reliever today via trade. Teams are going to either have to decide to drop out or the Cubs to pay for it. So they're a bit damned either way. If they can make a trade now great. But it really might take a few weeks.
  5. Jason Ross
    Certainly risky. In that situation I guess you have to really lean on your pre-draft work; relationships with players/agents, that your pre-draft deals are solid and that you can float kids down. I do think that if you go "broad spectrum" and look to sign one of those 16 pitchers who you could throw $2m at and just didn't really give a horsefeathers which lottery ticket you end up with that you probably get one in the 4th. That's be a lot of teams saving a lot of money to detail all 16. But it's probably a bit trickier if you "Vontae Mack no matter what" it about a particular one. As an aside that's like the third or fourth time this week I made a Draft Day reference (terrible movie, guilty pleasure of mine) and I sincerely want Jed to call someone a "pancake eating mother horsefeathers" come deadline when they trade for a starting pitcher.
  6. Jason Ross
    Probably won't happen until August, so don't get your hopes up. As much as the Twins aren't good, even at 46-48 they're two games back of the White Sox who also, just aren't very good, and are in first place. The AL is terrible but it's letting under .500 teams fart around relevancy and they're just not selling until the last moment or they go on ten game streak of dropping eight of them. If you want an early deadline deal it's basically: Royals, Angels, Orioles, Mets, Rockies, Giants as your shopping spots as I think all of these teams are way out of it and probably aren't going to convince themselves they're getting back in. Boston probably belongs here but I don't think they're going to throw in the towel mentally yet, same with the Padres. It will also allow these teams to ask for significant overpays. Your fringe teams like the Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Nationals (as examples) will be happy to float along for a few weeks to see if they can have the opposite of the situation above with the Twins; a good eight of ten run that puts them in buying positions. As for the Cubs, they're probably going to wait a few weeks too. They'll let the Angels or the Giants get a little more uncomfortable to hope for a Detmers or Webb trade, allow Taillon, Palencia and maybe Cabrera get back up and running and then assess.
  7. Jason Ross
    Curious that he mentioned $2m for some HS arms. The number "$2m for someone in the fourth round" was something I've seen specifically mentioned as what the Cubs are looking to stash away early.
  8. Jason Ross
    I have a hard time thinking they will take three position players. That said, I do think there's merit to the idea that the Cubs are going to go under-under-under early to save big bucks for someone a bit later. This isn't the first place I've seen that posited.
  9. Jason Ross
    Gracia is probably my favorite "if he's there, you just take him" pick. I just don't think he's going to be there, but a combination of a pitcher-run and just over thinking could leave him at 23. Run to the podium.
  10. Jason Ross
    Ah, a perfect, no issue, low pressure, scoreless inning.
  11. Jason Ross
    Not the worst send. Required a really well executed play.
  12. Jason Ross
    A good reminder that last year Pedro Ramirez was barely a top-10 prospect organizationally and had zero PA's above Double-A and Matt Shaw, while he had a promising run of games in the second half, had a 93 wRC+ on the year. It's easy with hindsight to see Cade Horton blowing out his arm, Steele's slow recovery, Ramirez's breakout today and Bregman's poor start in Chicago and yell this from the rooftops, but it's not so clear cut. None of this is saying that Bregman has been good, that the Cubs' did enough to address the pitching last year, or anything, only that posts like these ignore how people would have probably felt had the Cubs left 3b open to not block Pedro Ramirez in January.
  13. Jason Ross
    I'm not super worried about the BABIP. He's pulling the ball a lot with solid to better than solid batted ball data. That's a recipe for running high BABIP (minus the speed). As is being on the older side of things in terms of "a prospect" and being a repeater. That said, I could see him being like Patrick Wisdom (not in player comp, but career arc) where he farts around in Triple-A for years posting good numbers, finally gets a shot to stick around and does so as a useful player for a few years. A Jeimer Candelario-Lite, perhaps?
  14. Jason Ross
    Greg mentioned today in his discord that the feeling he gets is that the Cubs think Jackson sticks at catcher. One thing that I've wrestled with this AM is that the two red flags within DJ's profile are: receiving as a catcher and contact/approach. Internally, the Cubs have done pretty wonderfully recently with working with catcher defense (Amaya has come a long way, Owen Ayers, etc) as well as molding hitters within their best profile both mechanically and approach wise. Many time a pick, especially at 23, is as much about the player as the organizational fit, and the two feel like they fit together well. And to be fair, Roboscout projects DJ as the best hitter in this draft. There are plenty of flaws in that, but it's a fun thought especially considering Andrew Fischer was your top spot last year and that's working out well so far.
  15. Jason Ross
    I'm feeling like we're starting to finally see the smoke on the Cubs' pick. Based on some things I've read in Greg's Discord server, the comments from Broz and Kantrovitz, and now even BA changing from Mason Edwards (who had been a consistent picker) to now, Daniel Jackson, I feel like for the first time all cycle, I think I have a decent guess as to where they'd go. I had predicted gun-to-head yesterday Deitz just because I could see people getting wow'd by the potential upside, but I think today I'd guess it's going to be DJ. This matches up well with comments across the board. And while the Cubs don't normally go with a lot of capital into the catcher's position, I think the power/speed/arm combo here lends you to believe a corner OF bat is more than possible making it a bit more of a "Cubs" hitter profile. He doesn't have to be a catcher due to other circumstances, and because of that, could break that mold.
  16. Jason Ross
    To be fair to Preller, everyone said the same thing about Juan Soto and their eventual trade. Less control is less control, and Leo de Vries was both a shocking send at the time and today, a sunk cost.
  17. Jason Ross
    I'm fine if he wants to pull a Chris Flexen; be useful when the team needed a body until, one day, he just couldn't keep it up any more. Really they need like, 7-8 more good results-appearances before a blow out or two would make him a DFA candidate come the deadline. All of this assuming he doesn't keep getting better, obviously.
  18. Jason Ross
    Not sure how Trent Thornton has kept this up, but hey, keep going buddy.
  19. Jason Ross
    The hope is that he can be more like this more often. He has had such a start-stop nature to his year.
  20. Jason Ross
    Boyd dealing.
  21. Jason Ross
    There also weren't many good rental SP's available. Merril Kelly and the coming off TJS Shane Beiber were all you had. Mize, Gray, Peralta, etc, are all better than anyone there, That doesn't even factor in Skubal. So I do think the SP market will be different. We may not see the controlled ones go, but most of the rental market will have to go. It should help prices a bit.
  22. Jason Ross
    I said this on the podcast last week, but I'll say this: we are getting to a point where the reference point to what Pete Crow-Armstrong is doing right now isn't anyone other than...himself. Like, this is 1:1 type stuff. You can squint and see X or Y, but really? Pete's comp might just be...Pete for a lack of a better way to say it. Once you get in rarified air it's tough to find a comp.
  23. Jason Ross
    As much as I continue to think Hartshorn probably is a little too high and Rojas is probably a little too low, it's impressive that the system entered the year as "one of the least exciting" and in just a few months, and even before the draft has managed to get to essentially "average".
  24. Jason Ross
  25. Jason Ross
    Not saying how I fully feel about Rabe and his future as...I really don't know how I feel about him yet, but I am *strongly* against drafting any relief pitching profile in the first unless it's coming with a clear savings on slot money. I don't think Rabe is coming in that south of slot, so either you like him as a starter or I'm a big pass. I could get behind the younger Wiggins (who has reliever scouting reports) as a good underslot and then spreading the wealth with picks 2, 3 and 4 for prep guys. But at 23 it's too early to be drafting near full slot quick moving relievers. You can find relief guys in the draft up and down. Your first round pick is kind of your best shot at an impact guy. So take someone you like for around slot or go way way under. But if you're sitting on Rabe thinking "yeah probably a reliever" than I'm out as I think that's a poor use of slot.
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