Jason Ross

On the PCA extension: this is a fine deal. For the Cubs it creates cost-certainty through arb-years and not forcing the two sides to have to bicker year-over-year. Because it kicks in during the 2027 and he's days away from his 24th-birthday, this will take him through free agency years one and two, and to age 30 (effectively). That feels like a good place for a player like Pete. I love Pete, but as he is today, he's heavily reliant on his legs. We should expect that to be a fall-off skill earlier in his career than other builds, and we also know that swing speed dips around age-32. This is a good sweet spot, IMO.

Very much this. Teams who don't want to spend will always find ways not to spend. The Coyotes routinely found players who were effectively retired, who the other team would still pay, but would take on their cap hit to get to the floor. We should expect the Pirates, Reds, and others who tend to refuse to spend to find whatever loophole they can. I'm in favor of a cap/floor situation only if it's based on % of revenue and that % is around the NFL level (like it can't be so heavily skewed to the owners that it makes it moot). However for that to work, MLB would have to give up their anti-trust exemption and open the books in a legitimate way. Which, let's be real...it ain't happening. Beyond that, MLB and other leagues run about the same levels of parity. Right now the Dodgers are a bit of a runaway train, but the NFL had the Patriots hegemony with a cap/floor. And yes, teams like the Pirates feel like they never try, but the Browns have been destitute forever.

Yeah I'm expecting it will be a 2026 start date. With as many arb years as they have to buy out still, it should keep the AAV reasonable. Nightengale suggested he'd be the 2nd highest paid AAV player, but I assume either: 1. He means by the end of the deal his yearly salary will bet between Swanson and Bregman but wasn't suggesting his AAV was higher than Swanson's $23m or 2. He forgot Swanson existed (which would be very Bob like) and was talking about AAV, but that he'll come in as an AAV under $23m If he is truly at a $23m -$25m AAV than I think it would have to kick in 2027, but I think it probably won't be close to that.

Internally it depends on how they start it. They can start the contract tomorrow, or at the end of the year; it's based on language. It may be difficult to start it today with the LT and if the AAV pushed the Cubs over the 2nd line, it could have implications.

Feels all like the correct choices. Ben Brown as a reliever feels like a good space for him right now. Having him stretched is fun, but he can do some time in the BP and then stretch out if we really have to. Assuming with Rea and Assad and Steele on the way back, there would be time to make it happen. But he's just a dynamic arm due to his stuff so I'd rather utilize it than have him as a break-in-case-of-emergency.

The team just signed Alex Bregman, I don't think we necessarily need to worry about how the team will handle money. Ask yourself this: what's the worst FA signing the Cubs have made since Hoyer came about? I'm pretty sure it's Trey Mancini. And we can't really be worried about them cheaping out three months after signing Bregman, can we? Like, if you want to say "I don't think the team will give Skubal the biggest contract a SP has ever gotten" I think that's a fair thing to say (even if I don't think it's fair for the Cubs to act that way). But Hoyer generally spends the money he's given on players who contribute, and did just drop $150m on a modern deferral type deal, so I don't have a ton of worry that they'll punt a position of need when they have the funds.

It's possible! Though I think with any "internal prospect heavy" rotation, I think it's somewhat unlikely. This is asking for perfect health across the board with five arms who have had their fair share of injuries, and two of those players have yet to establish themselves at the MLB. It'd be fun, but it's probably more likely that there is at least one free agent add and one of Brown or Wiggins isn't in there.

Shapewise, yes. However it's very inconsistent in how well he locates it. He has a tendency to leave it in some bad spots. So while I think the pitch looks like a plus pitch, the inconsistent nature of it has it as a "eh...IDK" yet. The fastball I'm much more confident in with the outlier shape and velo, coupled with what looks like better location this spring. The slider has good shape, but not outlier special shape, and spotty control, even this spring...so less confident.

I'd like to see his secondaries improve, but if he's filling up the upper third with that fastball, he's going to be good. You can survive with decent/mediocre secondaries if you offer a beastly fastball. What will happen is that as players look to stay away from getting beat on that upper third pitch, they'll be more willing to chase those other pitches. It'd be best if his secondaries kept getting better, but if he can be a decent strike thrower with the fastball, he'll settle in, even if the other pitchers are merely "fine".

Guys aren't on pitch counts either. Teams are tracking far more intricate details than PC or IP. We have that as crude approximations but they're tracking fatigue. This includes: How many pitches in an inning? How many high-stress pitches in an inning? How many high-stress pitches in a game? And all sorts of other things. These teams aren't just counting pitches, they're tracking the minutia of each pitch; data we just don't have. The best you and I can do is boil this down to a rough PC or a rough IP limit. But as with all data, we're working with Duplo while the baseball world is working with intricate Legos.

Can't be too mad as a Cub fan. Palencia looked like a monster. And as a personal aside, I wrote this in an article a month ago. So, I'm giving myself some back-apts:

Counsell said it's minor in nature, he won't be shut down from baseball yet. Giving it the weekend and then deciding on IL. PCL strain.

I'm a full believer that if you leave a game's outcome up to the ref/ump's decision, than the ultimate blame relies with your team. I don't fault Perdomo; he did everything correct - he fouled out pitch after pitch and worked a walk. But as a team, the DR had the tying run on third base more than once, and you had plenty of opportunity to get him home and that's your fault.

Correct. With that said, Wiggins has been throwing strikes with the fastball this spring and seems to have found that pitch even more than he had. We very well may need to adjust our expectations. MLB teams aren't using innings as a measure. I also expect that we see players more often wearing trackers like we see soccer players wearing. But you and I don't have that data so as of today, we can crudely us IP as a guess.

If it makes you feel better, I totally think Perdomo got hosed. The DR as a team have no one to blame but themselves for scoring one run, but I'd have lit that umo up if I were Perdomo.

So, that call to end the game was really bad. I'm going to start there. I also think some of these guys get a little too high on their own supply with the way they kick people out and grandstand (not last night, but we all have examples). However, I think we're being far too harsh. Let's remember, umpires are making more minute to minute calls than anyone. We're talking 250+ pitches every game for a home plate umpire. Add in check swings. And fiddly rules. With pitches that baffle the mind in how fast they are, and how fast they move, and how much they move. With catchers who are actively attempting to trick them every time. We have technology to fix that terrible call at the end of the game (and in four years we should at least have the ABS challenge in place and a few years of refinement). And that umpire missed that one. Badly. But I don't agree they're the worst; they just have more calls than anyone else. And they're doing a nearly impossible job. And yet some of them only miss one or two calls. In fact, the % of correct calls have been going up for years. I don't think they're nearly as bad as this post makes it out to be. And we're getting better and closer to using that tech to fix these bad calls.

Cade Horton went from 34 IP in 2024 to 147 last year (over split levels). Wiggins had 78 IP last year. I think if you asked the Cubs and got a fully honest answer, they'd tell you they probably didn't want to get to 147 IP last year for Horton but necessity required it. I would think Wiggins is probably in the 120-130 IP range, but the Cubs may push it if they have to.

Yeah, I think there's a real chance it's 80-grade. I try my best to save those types of things, but if he's hitting 98mph and with the IVB he's got, it's an insane pitch.

Big MiLB rule changes coming. Link here to FanGraphs article. Things that specifically affect the Cubs' system include: 1. Starting Pitcher Reentry. In Arizona Complex League, Florida Complex League, and Dominican Summer League games, the starting pitcher will be permitted to re-enter a game after being removed, subject to the following restrictions: Only the starting pitcher may reenter the game after being removed. The removed starting pitcher may only reenter the game at the beginning of the inning following removal and may only reenter the game once. To be eligible for re-entry, the starting pitcher must throw at least 25 pitches in the inning during which he is removed. 2. Check Swing and ABS International League. All games played in the International League will use the ABS Challenge system and follow the same rules that have been adopted at the Major League level for the 2026 season (i.e., each team will start the game with two challenges, successful challenges will be retained, teams will receive an extra challenge if they have no challenges remaining in extra innings, etc.). As noted in the section above, MLB will monitor gameplay and decide if changes to the ABS Challenge system will be tested later in the season. Players in the International League will not be permitted to challenge check-swings, but, beginning with the series that starts on May 5, 2026, umpires will be instructed to call swings/no-swings based on the 45-degree threshold described above. Prior to May 5th, umpires will call check-swings as they have in recent seasons. Positioning of Second Base. To encourage more action on the bases, in the International League second base will be placed entirely within the perimeter of the infield diamond during the second half. This change will decrease the distance between first base and second base, and the distance between second base and third base, by approximately 9”, i.e., double the change achieved by increasing the size of the bases from 15” inches to 18.” MLB will work with the groundskeepers in the International League to move second base prior to the start of the second half of the 2026 season.

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images And then there were two. North Side Baseball's rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Chicago Cubs' farm system (as voted on by our writers) has reached second place, this year featuring starting pitcher Jaxon Wiggins. Be sure to check out all of our previous installments in the series here: Prospects #20-16 Prospects #15-11 Prospect #10 - James Triantos Prospect #9 - Josiah Hartshorn Prospect #8 - Kane Kepley Prospect #7 - Pedro Ramirez Prospect #6 - Ethan Conrad Prospect #5 - Jonathon Long Prospect #4 - Kevin Alcantara Prospect #3 - Jefferson Rojas #3 - Jaxon Wiggins (Iowa Cubs) Jaxon Wiggins was once a controversial draft pick; the Cubs selected the pitcher out of Arkansas in the second round of the 2023 Amateur Draft. The reason people were skeptical at the time was that Wiggins had missed the previous year due to Tommy John surgery, and despite some encouraging reports before he went down in the fall league, his numbers while at college were never good. Since then, Wiggins has exploded through the Cubs' system, and his 2025 season saw the right handed pitcher move from High-A South Bend to Iowa by the end of the year. There was a mysterious shutdown around the trade deadline in which Wiggins took time off (either for injury or rest, it's not entirely clear), but the year was excellent for the former second-round pick. Through all three levels, he posted a 2.19 ERA and a 3.29 xFIP. Better yet, he struck out 31% of batters faced and kept his walks in check, walking 11.5% of hitters. He only logged 78 innings, so you'd like to have seen a little more length out of him, but it was an encouraging year. What to like: The first thing that stands out in Wiggins' profile is that his fastball is already flashing very special characteristics. Capable of running it up to triple digits, and sitting comfortably at 96-98 mph with ease, it's not just a hard fastball — it has great shape too. The heater that the Cubs' prospect features has some of the best induced vertical break (IVB) around. IVB helps us understand the effects, or in this case, the lack of effect, gravity has on a specific pitch. Wiggins' fastball has the ability to cut through the air and not have gravity drag it down. Wiggins' IVB of 19.1 is about the same level as Shota Imanaga's fastball, except he throws it much harder. While I hesitate to say it's an 80-grade offering, this is a pitch that is going to make Wiggins very hard to hit when he gets it up in the zone. A knock on Wiggins coming out of college and into the draft was his inability to throw enough strikes. Baseball America's draft profile mentions his "erratic control." Well, Wiggins has quieted those concerns, showing improved control en route to manageable walk totals. While he looked rusty at times in Iowa coming off a long layoff, he seems to have continued to work on that aspect in the offseason. As Matt Trueblood wrote about recently, his fastball command has been very good this spring while in camp with the Cubs. This is great news for his development; limiting free passes is always a good thing for a pitcher. What to work on: As with all pitchers, availability matters and Wiggins hasn't always been available. Whether it's the TJS he had in college or the timeout he took last year, ensuring that their prized pitching prospect remains on the mound is big priority for the organization. The Cubs have done well over the years keeping players relatively healthy, and with depth at the MLB level, the Cubs shouldn't have to push him along too fast. In the event of an early injury, the team can turn to Colin Rea or Javier Assad with confidence and Justin Steele seems to be well ahead of schedule, too. This will allow Wiggins to build strength on his own timeline. Once he clears all bars of health and continues to build innings, his secondaries are still more of a work-in-progress than his fastball is. As Matt explained in his article, while the fastball command is making progress, the other offerings still need some refinement in the zone. He has a curveball and a changeup that both flash upside, but he hasn't dialed in the location entirely. His command isn't as erratic as it once was, but it'd be best for his starting pitching prospects if he could improve this further. What's next: Jaxon Wiggins is going to head to Iowa to start the year and will undoubtedly be the pitcher to watch, not only in Triple-A, but in the entire system. The upside here is immense; think a Nick Pivetta who throws 98 mph. He has the makings and foundations of a top-of-the-rotation guy, but with enough warts that he may not get there. Ensuring that the endurance, stamina, health and control of his secondaries progress will help make sure that he gets as close to his optimal outcome as possible. It feels very likely that as long as he's healthy, he's going to make his debut in Chicago sometime in 2026. While we'd all love to see him as a starting option, the Cubs have a ton of depth built up this year, so he may make his initial appearances out of the bullpen. That's okay; depth is a good thing, and this will allow the Cubs to control his innings while not having to put him on a leash. If the North Siders are as good as we hope, they could even get him some late-season starts if they're running away with the division in that case. And with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Jameson Taillon all possible departures at the end of the year, a 2027 rotation spot seems prime for the taking. The Cubs don't need to rush Wiggins, and that's a good thing. There's still many outcomes for their top-ranked-arm, but so far, he's clearing hurdles and showing he's a capable learner. There is some major upside with the 24-year-old, something the team is sorely lacking down on the farm, so there's probably some undue pressure on him to lead the line and break out fully this year. That's a tough bill to live up to, but he has so far shown he's up to the task. View full article

Haha, don't think the name, think the production. A 3+ win 3b is a good thing! And that's not entirely his ceiling, but more along the lines of a reasonable outcome. He doesn't really have 20 home run power as of today, he isn't a speed demon and isn't a star defender, though at 3b should be fine. It's going to be hard to find wins with a profile of Rojas beyond three wins. If he adds some pop, for example, we can start talking about reasonable outcomes that stretch beyond that, but he isn't a slam dunk top-100 type right now and expecting more than that today feels more "rose colored glasses" than objectivity, if we are being honest with ourselves.

Image courtesy of © Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images North Side Baseball's top-20 Chicago Cubs prospects list for the 2026 season is nearing it's conclusion. Today, we'll be focusing on our bronze medalist, Jefferson Rojas. Be sure to check out all of our previous installments in the series here: Prospects #20-16 Prospects #15-11 Prospect #10 - James Triantos Prospect #9 - Josiah Hartshorn Prospect #8 - Kane Kepley Prospect #7 - Pedro Ramirez Prospect #6 - Ethan Conrad Prospect #5 - Jonathon Long Prospect #4 - Kevin Alcantara #3 - Jefferson Rojas (Tennessee Smokies, Double-A) Jefferson Rojas feels like he has always been on the precipice of a breakout without ever truly busting through the glass ceiling, and 2025 had a similar vibe. At first, it looked like perhaps we were seeing the coming out party we had all hoped for, as Rojas was an absolute monster at High-A South Bend. Over 299 plate appearances, the Cubs' prospect slashed .278/.379/.492, which was 45% above average. This showed significant development for the 20-year-old, who somewhat struggled with an 88 wRC+ over his first 419 PA's at the same level the year prior. Things derailed when Rojas got to Tennessee however, which really limited the idea that he truly had broken through. Going homer-less in his first 172 plate appearances, Rojas looked a bit outmatched at Double-A. Much like his first go at High-A, these were productive struggles for a player who was younger than league average, but still, if you were hoping that the year was going to be all sunshine and rainbows, his first look at a higher level likely dampened that outlook. What to like: First off, Rojas has always been very young for his level of competition. Getting to High-A by age 19 and Double-A by age 20 puts him on a much quicker pace than most of his peers. Ethan Conrad, our sixth-ranked prospect, was playing at Wake Forrest at 20 years old, which is a step-below the level of competition in Double-A. Rojas has been cutting his teeth against some really quality opponents. As a player, Rojas has shown a pretty solid ability to keep his strikeouts in check while keeping his walks up. Even struggling in Tennessee last year, the shortstop didn't eclipse a 20% strikeout rate and maintained an 11.6% walk rate. Rojas has a pretty good approach at the plate that maximizes his contact ability without getting so aggressive that he still isn't getting on base. So, despite his 58 wRC+ in Double-A, he maintained an OBP nearly .100 points above his batting average. Rojas, outside of Tennessee, showed improved power last year. His 11 home runs in just under 300 PA's was a career high at any level, and his .214 ISO was double that of his last go at High-A as well. This is great news for his future; hitting the ball with authority is never a bad thing. But it's also good because it shows adaptability; yes, he struggled when he was 19 at High-A, but then he came back out and destroyed the level. If you're worried about him heading into Double-A because of his poor first look, this gives you reason to believe he'll overcome that small setback. What to work on: As much as I want to chalk up his struggles at Double-A to just the idea of productive struggles, a 58 wRC+ is never a good thing on it's own. I'm willing to consider context, but for a prospect who defensively isn't likely to stick at shortstop (which I'll explore more later), he's going to have to hit better than that in 2026. Defensively, Rojas probably won't stick long term at short. As Baseball America describes in his scouting report, Rojas has "average hands and footwork". This probably will not be enough to allow him to stick at a premium position as he begins to fill out as an adult. While this isn't an immediate disqualifier, it means that his bat will have to do more talking to ensure he can stick at a position like third base down the line. The biggest knock on Rojas might be that there isn't a standout tool in his bag. He has a good hit tool, shows the ability to hit double-digit home runs, and he's probably going to be fine at either second or third, but there isn't anything that wows you. Not every player needs a carrying tool, but it can be a concern that without one, he could just be a "jack-of-all-trades" type. It means that he can't really have one aspect dip too far away from average, but so far, this hasn't been an issue, thankfully. What's next: Jefferson Rojas will go back to Double-A and look to improve on his first go at the level. There's reason to be optimistic that last year will be of the "speed bump" variety in Tennessee. First, Rojas showed marked improvement from year one to year two at High-A and repeating that should shock no one. More importantly, however, Rojas has been killing the baseball in spring training. While I'm not in the "spring statistics are meaningful" camp myself, I do think there's reason to believe in this data; he's changed his pre-pitch set up for the better. Compare below a home run he hit this spring to the video posted above. Notice that he is less upright and that his hands have more separation from his body before he launches into his swing. This seems to have loosened him up a bit and given him extra whip through the zone. He's also made most of his hard contact against players who have sniffed MLB relevancy; for someone like Alex Bregman, that would be meaningless, but for someone who hasn't yet seen Triple-A, we can't ignore that fact. A successful year for Rojas likely sees him rocket through Double-A like he did in South Bend last year and end up in Iowa. There's little in the way of blocking him at that level on the infield, so he could continue to get reps at short even if he's unlikely to be a solution for the big-league Cubs there. I also wouldn't be surprised if the roller coaster experience continues; kill the level you repeat, struggle against the newest competition. Getting to Iowa by age 21`, regardless of his outcomes against Triple-A pitching, would put him on track to break through with the Cubs by his 22nd birthday, which is no small feat. Longer term, he probably fits comfortably as a third baseman with 15 (or so) home runs in his bat while also making a good deal of contact. While not a 1:1 comparison, former Cub Zach McKinstry's 2025 campaign feels like a good outcome for Jefferson: a 3.2 fWAR season that was built with a 112 wRC+, 12 home runs, 9% walk rate, and a 21.7% strikeout rate. What do you think of Jefferson Rojas? Are you optimistic about his mechanical changes? What do you think his upside is? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Yeah, I wish we could see Conrad right now, but I'm okay with them being careful. Shoulders are iffy and I'd prefer to avoid a Mathis situation here. My hope is that he's in SB once things warm up. I suspect he'll be in Myrtle to start, and I bet playing 1b/DH more than we'd like, but for his health, they'll do it. If by mid-May or so he's playing OF and in High-A I'll be happy. I do think his bat is super advanced, so he can probably be slow played and still speed through it, but i thought the same with Cole Mathis, so what do I know?