Jason Ross

wRC+ is there to ignore biases. You have biases and they're clear here. Home runs = value to you. But Pete Crow Armstrong reached base at a .287 clip last year compared to Nico Hoerner who reached base far more often, with a .335 rate. wRC+ is there to take away your blind spots...which you have. We all do, it's not like a "you" thing, but wRC+ says they were both 9% better than league average. PCA does that by hitting a lot of home runs but doesn't get on base a lot. Hoerner doesn't hit home runs, but then gets on base a heck of a lot more. It's cool that Pete hits bombs, but it's really not cool that he gets on base well below league average. What Pete Crow-Armstrong does in year-3 is theoretical. There's no guarantee he gets better. What we can say is that despite Pete Crow-Armstrong out homering Nico Hoerner 41 to 14 over 2024-2025, the only two full years they have both played, Hoerner has been the better hitter. Hoerner's 6 years of free agency are going to be more expensive than PCA's 2 years of FA and 4 years of arbitration because of what you're buying.

Player A: 109 wRC+, 14 OAA Player B: 109 wRC+, 21 OAA These are 2025 numbers. One is Pete, the other is Nico. One cannot be glove first if the other is not.

We use "glove first" as a negative thing, and a "bat-first" player as a positive but wins are wins. Nico Hoerner is a stead 3.5-4 win player. Those sign for around $9-$11m per win.

It very well may be. In fact, it probably will be. But we have to remember that Hoerner is being bought out of 6 years of free agency while PCA was being bought out of four years of arbitration and two of free agency. PCA's arbitration and initial FA years are far more expensive, however, than Hoerner's initial FA years, even when we account for inflation.

On Nico; I'm not sure Id have done this one. In a vacuum, I think it's mostly fine. While I have concerns with defense/speed guys into their 30s, as a 2b, there is probably a little less concern as their is a little less defensive athleticism needed to play the position than say SS. Bat speed dips around 32 or 33 but Hoerner isn't a bat speed guy; I think his offensive profile mostly should age well. But what are they doing with Swanson over the next 3 years? Is the goal to have a 35 year old SS? Is Bregman playing 3b into his mid-to-lat 30s? 2b was a nice landing spot for either of them in the next few years and that's seemingly gone. Or is the plan to effectively swap them? Like is 30 year old Nico going to be the SS for a year or two? It feels like they are boxed in a little defensively while the left side ages out. But hey, big market teams can take some financial risks and if the Cubs want to actually act like a big team, which extending players does suggest they may be more willing to act like moving forward, than I will take a bit of a wait and see approach.

I'm not sure it means anything. They signed Swanson before Shaw was even in the system as an example. The team didn't fire their entire development team or anything. They signed four win players to fill out their infield. That's what big market teams do.

I don't want to take anything away from what Milwaukee has done. They've done more with less than almost anyone and have crushed played dev and drafting. That said, all of the boogeyman Brewer things are the exact things that we said about the Cardinals a decade ago. They seemingly always found pitchers under the couch cushions, had an army of 5'8" infielders and had prospects with massive upsides boiling just under the surface. But eventually that pixie dust wears out. You can't hit 1.000 on your best prospects, and eventually the "if we just wish upon a star on this guy" won't turn that pumpkin into a 4 win player any more. The Brewers are a good organization, they deserve their praise. But the division will always have another good team in it. That's just baseball. And at some point their luck will run out. It's likely that in 2036 that the pixie dust will have transfered from Milwaukee at some point in the next few seasons to another team. The Cubs will always have to overcome other good teams on the way to the top of they are going to win baseball games. As TT said, if all we look at is the best case scenarios everyone seems terrifying. But it's more likely something else occurs. The Cubs should do their thing, spend money like they can and hopefully continue to develop talent like they have recently. And they will be in positions to go to battle with whatever pixie dust teams they have to face in the division (and I say pixie dust teams because I don't foresee any of the other 4 spending big)

I do. I think he's a four-year guy for some team. Him and Seiya are probably the two best OF'er on the market.

They're not counting on a 2025 1st round draft pick who missed most of the year with an injury to speed run MiLB in one year to start in 2027...

6 years

Bring it on. All the dingers.

That's not a bad play from Matt. He made it look awkward but that wind is gnarly

Yeesh, Pete.

I think they have the worst defense in baseball this year. Not just because of the first inning, but across the board they suck defensively.

Because I assume my life is the Truman Show and I am the main character, I'm having a good morning so far. This can only mean that the Cubs will play and win today.

I won't bank on either, but both have reasonable arguments for why they might not stink, so let's be a bit patient. Carlson has spent years hurt. It messed up his swing and his body. But at 27 years old he isn't at a point age wise where his body is so broken he cant do it any more. The Cubs have liked him for a while and believe he's healthy. He was a good and productive MLB player for a few years. And as a fourth OF you can deploy him as needed. Conforto had good underlying data last year. The bat speed dipped, so if you want to red flag this, I think you can. But there is a reason a smart organization like the Dodgers player him as much as they did in 2025 and it isn't because they are cheap or actively trying to play on hard mode with 8 useful hitters. So while I won't say either are locks to make it a full season as useful players, both have very reasonable reasons as to why they might not suck, so let's maybe give it a bit before we decide they entirely do. Neither will play a ton and if they aren't good, neither seem likely to be kept. The Cubs have young players who could reasonably do their job if it doesn't work out

No. Kingery will be gone and Shaw will then head to the bench as the primary INF backup who also plays OF. I suspect that what will most likely play out is that Shaw and Carlson, not Conforto, will be your primary INF and OF backups.

Thankfully he'll probably barely play. Seiya sounds like he's going to be back pretty quickly and I doubt the team will find many PA's for Mr. Kingery in those 10 days - 2 weeks.

Both made OD.

I'll assume the Neely thing will end up like Arias and Canario as: interesting youths who were DFA'd and never reappear in a meaningful way, but it's a bit surprising after he looked better this spring. Maybe they can sneak him through, though.

On the PCA extension: this is a fine deal. For the Cubs it creates cost-certainty through arb-years and not forcing the two sides to have to bicker year-over-year. Because it kicks in during the 2027 and he's days away from his 24th-birthday, this will take him through free agency years one and two, and to age 30 (effectively). That feels like a good place for a player like Pete. I love Pete, but as he is today, he's heavily reliant on his legs. We should expect that to be a fall-off skill earlier in his career than other builds, and we also know that swing speed dips around age-32. This is a good sweet spot, IMO.

Very much this. Teams who don't want to spend will always find ways not to spend. The Coyotes routinely found players who were effectively retired, who the other team would still pay, but would take on their cap hit to get to the floor. We should expect the Pirates, Reds, and others who tend to refuse to spend to find whatever loophole they can. I'm in favor of a cap/floor situation only if it's based on % of revenue and that % is around the NFL level (like it can't be so heavily skewed to the owners that it makes it moot). However for that to work, MLB would have to give up their anti-trust exemption and open the books in a legitimate way. Which, let's be real...it ain't happening. Beyond that, MLB and other leagues run about the same levels of parity. Right now the Dodgers are a bit of a runaway train, but the NFL had the Patriots hegemony with a cap/floor. And yes, teams like the Pirates feel like they never try, but the Browns have been destitute forever.

Yeah I'm expecting it will be a 2026 start date. With as many arb years as they have to buy out still, it should keep the AAV reasonable. Nightengale suggested he'd be the 2nd highest paid AAV player, but I assume either: 1. He means by the end of the deal his yearly salary will bet between Swanson and Bregman but wasn't suggesting his AAV was higher than Swanson's $23m or 2. He forgot Swanson existed (which would be very Bob like) and was talking about AAV, but that he'll come in as an AAV under $23m If he is truly at a $23m -$25m AAV than I think it would have to kick in 2027, but I think it probably won't be close to that.

Internally it depends on how they start it. They can start the contract tomorrow, or at the end of the year; it's based on language. It may be difficult to start it today with the LT and if the AAV pushed the Cubs over the 2nd line, it could have implications.

Feels all like the correct choices. Ben Brown as a reliever feels like a good space for him right now. Having him stretched is fun, but he can do some time in the BP and then stretch out if we really have to. Assuming with Rea and Assad and Steele on the way back, there would be time to make it happen. But he's just a dynamic arm due to his stuff so I'd rather utilize it than have him as a break-in-case-of-emergency.