Jason Ross

We gotta stop doing this every time the game doesn't go perfectly. Good teams, good offenses, have bad games. They have multiple bad games in a row. They lose series to bad teams. This happens to them all. Every. Single. One. Of. Them. Beyond that, baseball is a game where you have a near infinite amount of data points that you can manipulate to your whim. If you want a doom-boner, you don't have to look far; just slice up the game into a single, very pedantic data point and you'll find something. Let's not over-engineer a simple problem. The Cubs have been one of the best teams against the best pitchers in baseball offensively. They've been one of the best team offensively against the worst pitchers. They've scored the second most runs on the season. They literally lead the league in wRC+. They're a good offense.

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images The end of the 2025 season—and specifically the playoffs—was an ugly stretch for Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga. The affable lefty was pounded in his last two starts of the season and then rocked in the playoffs by the arch-rival Milwaukee Brewers. Imanaga started the season as the team's co-ace; he ended it by being passed over for a do-or-die start in Game 5 of the NLDS. The culprit in this demise was Imagana's propensity to give up the long ball at the wrong time. Sadly, that's cropped up again this year, as he's given up 29 homers already. Figuring out how to work around these is key as the team begins to look beyond the regular season (while continuing to pursue the Brewers in the NL Central). Sometimes, however, we have a bad habit of focusing on just the home runs. Imanaga's most recent start against the crosstown White Sox is a great example of this. The home run Randal Grichuk hit in the top of the fourth was the talk of social media; it defined his start for many people. Grichuk has made life hell for lefties for more than a decade, sporting a career 121 wRC+ against southpaws. Despite being 35 years old now, he's shown no signs of slowing down, posting a 161 wRC+ on the year against them. A left-handed pitcher with home run issues giving up a bomb to a guy who crushes lefties is not a wild outcome. What you may have missed, however, is that Imanaga had a great start minus that outcome. Not only did he strike out 10 hitters, but he induced 20 whiffs on 40 swings. The fastball velocity sat at 91.5 MPH—an important metric for Imanaga, who struggles significantly when the velocity dips below 91. The splitter was especially good, as it notched an 80% whiff rate when the Sox swung at it that night. That came against the offense with the 7th-best wRC+ against lefties this season. With Imanaga, there will be some home runs given up, but he has shown time and time again that despite that, he can dominate. Outside the 29 homers, Imanaga has had another fine season. He has a 3.77 ERA in 143 innings. With all of the injuries, he's been a rock in the rotation, taking the ball every turn and delivering as many quality starts (11) as the next two Cubs on the leaderboard (Matthew Boyd, 6; Colin Rea, 5). The underlying data assure us that the results aren't fluky; his xERA is 3.81 and his xFIP is 3.85. He's a fine mid-rotation starter. That said, the Cubs shouldn't enter the postseason having forgotten what happened last year, either. That Grichuk home run felt inevitable because it was an obviously bad matchup for Imanaga. But the worst part about that home run was the walk that preceded it. The Cubs lefty can survive a solo shot or two, but he cannot survive three-run blasts. Walks aren't generally an issue for him, but they will happen from time to time, and that's when things get a little scary. Walk the guy before a lefty-masher, and what seemed like a clean inning could turn into two runs. As you enter the playoffs, you're far more likely to face lineups that will force Imanaga into those exact uncomfortable situations. That will (rightfully) make most Cubs fans uneasy, The margin for error is razor-thin in the playoffs, and Imanaga lives on a razor's edge already. To mitigate the risk he presents, the Cubs should shield him from the third time through the batting order. The first time batters see him in a game, Imanaga has a 3.33 xFIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate. The second time he sees hitters, he has a 3.55 xFIP and a 25.3 K%. Once he gets to a third time, his xFIP jumps to 5.67 and his K-rate drops to a measly 12.6%. As a pitcher who really relies on two pitches as his primary options (fastball/splitter), it makes sense that he struggles the third time through. As often as the Cubs can avoid this, they should. With their roughed-up rotation leading to an exhausted bullpen, they haven't always been able to shield him from this during the regular season. Instead, they've often asked him to get through that one extra inning, maybe a little too often. The good news for the Cubs is that the rules of the game (figuratively) change in the playoffs. Teams don't use their starters or bullpens the same way they do over the first 162. The Dodgers won a World Series two years ago with two starters, using their bullpen the rest of the time; you can hide deficiencies in interesting ways. Luckily, the North Siders might just be set up perfectly to use Imanaga with these changes. Enter: the Cubs' changing bullpen. Between today and the end of the season, the Cubs' bullpen is likely to see lots of reinforcements. Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, Daniel Palencia, Justin Steele, Hoby Milner and Shelby Miller might all return, building depth and variety for the pen. There are pitchers who may give you some length (two or three innings) and others who give you funky looks. There are pitchers who can attack very specific weaknesses, and others who will blow hitters away with pure stuff. That should allow the Cubs to utilize Imanaga more optimally. You can help Imanaga avoid bad matchups and the third-time through the order penalty by using those options. The Brewers might stack lefty-mashers Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras at the top of their order to face Imanaga as many times as they can. Instead of letting the southpaw take the first inning, they could allow (say) Brown to take the first four or five outs of the game, then turn it over to Imanaga. Because of the sheer amount of trustworthy arms that may return and how teams handle playoff pitching staffs (being far more aggressive with early pulls), Imanaga also wouldn't be asked to go 18+ outs or be forced to see a lineup a third time. It's much more likely he would be asked to get something closer to 12 outs. He could give up a few baserunners and still never see a hitter a third time. Plus, by shortening his usage, you can ameliorate the issue with his fastball velocity. In shorter stints, it's more likely that he can max out the effort on the pitch. He may even be able to get it to the 92-93 MPH area that former Driveline pitching instructor Chris Langin suggested as the threshold Imanaga needs to reach to be at his best. Fans should hope the Cubs need to use four starting pitchers in the playoffs. As a team probably headed for the Wild Card round (FanGraphs gives the Cubs just an 11.1% chance to both win the division and secure a bye), the Cubs would only need a fourth starter in the second round. If the season ended today, recently-acquired starters Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes would start two of the three games in a Wild Card round, leaving a decision to be made by Craig Counsell on whom the third pitcher would be. That debate would come down to Boyd and Imanaga. The team will need both if they move on, but finding a way to get the best out of Imanaga is key. Thankfully, the Cubs are getting healthy (at least, pitching-wise) at the right time, which should allow them to optimize usage of both hurlers. Unlike in 2025, this team looks ready to cover its October innings. In the interim. the Cubs will hope for more starts like Imanaga's against the White Sox. He will be a little more exposed going forward. Even with the rosters expanding, they'll ask him to get through five or six innings in most starts. They'll hope they see more solo bombs than ones with runners on. He'll have to face a few hitters (like Grichuk) who are just bad matchups. And he'll probably be just fine, as he's been most of the season. But when the playoffs happen, they'll be able to try different things. Piggybacking might be an option. Openers might be an option. In a way, Imanaga is the Cubs' glass cannon. The traditional glass-cannon arm is someone who's wonderful when healthy, but who rarely are. Imanaga isn't a big injury risk, but he tends to "break" in the ways described here: giving up home runs, diminished velocity and seeing the order a third time. He can be a hitter's nightmare when everything is working, but he has some serious flaws. Maybe the right term for him is Plexiglass Cannon, instead. He's not as breakable as many hurlers in the traditional sense, but pressure and repeated exposure can still crack him. Deploying Imanaga may take a deft hand, a strong bullpen and knowing when to pull him, but if you get it right, this Plexiglass cannon can be a real weapon. View full article

Think it'll be a piggy-back. Peterson "will be involved" according to Counsell.

Damnit. I knew it was seven. I have no idea why I decided in that post suddenly it was nine. I think "September 9th" was on my brain and went too quickly. Either that or I simply cannot count. My math teacher's throughout the years would definitely point to this fact as the issue.

ZiPs has Assad being worth 0.1 fWAR the rest of the year in 22 innings. They have Rea worth 0.2 fWAR in 30 IP. Let's assume those IP are correct. Even if you think the difference between the two is a gulf, there is just two P in baseball between 20 and 30 IP who has put up a full win; Samy Natera Jr and Josh Hader. So unless you're assuming that Javier Assad is going to turn into Josh Hader, you're looking around probably the best case scenario being like fractional wins; the difference between .2 fWAR and .4 or .5 fWAR. And that...feels rich even at that. The point I'm making is the difference is incredibly minimal. We can anecdotally point to a game here or there or whatever, but anecdotes are just that; anecdotes. Data tells us that it's not a major difference. The Cubs are 4.5 games back and while fractional things might matter, they don't matter so much that you begin DFA'ing players when you can option players. The division is not going to be decided whether or not the Cubs option Assad for 11 days. The most likely scenario is that the division is decided between August 31st and September 9th when the Cubs and the Brewers play seven times. And in six of those games, they have expanded rosters so Assad would be here anyways.

Me too. Especially because he's been much better against RHP this year. You can use him as a super charged guy to get RHP out. Like Ferguson but...better.

I think we're well overrating Javier Assad if we think the Cubs are significantly better on the field with Assad in the bullpen or in Iowa. I like Assad, but let's be real about how long relief works; you use them in games where you're already losing. Now, that isn't to say there isn't value there; if you follow the podcast you'll hear me talk about the "designated loser" pretty often, the concept of keeping the game close when you're behind to allow your offense to catch up. We saw it last night! But I'm not sure Assad is a massive, game changing upgrade on Rea, and there's a reason that when you're behind it's still unlikely to come back to win. Anecdotally it helps, but let's not over value this too much, either. The point is that the Cubs can have their cake (depth) and eat it too (Assad will be used). If the Cubs had DFA'd Aaron Civale a few days ago to keep Assad, then who's coming up for Cabrera? We can't ignore this aspect. I want to make it clear: I like Javier Assad. The Cubs have needed Assad this year. But I also think the Cubs need Colin Rea right now. And they need depth. We saw what May looked like when we were scraping at the very bottom of the barrel. Cabrera is on the IL with a blister. Last night Guasman had a weird cramp which, let's be real, we all probably held our breath a little on. Clay Holmes spent time on the 60-day this year. Matthew Boyd has plenty of injury history. As much as we want to just forget May and say "it won't happen again", it's pitching and it can happen again. The division is almost assuredly not going to be decided by whether or not Assad is in Iowa versus Chicago if everyone is healthy. But it may be decided by the Cubs' deciding that depth doesn't matter all of a sudden. We finally have depth - let's not throw it away because we're impatient.

Florintino sits around 90mph and can run to the low 90's. The run is good, but the velo isn't. I used the sub-90 thing to kind of remind us about Hendricks, not about Florintino as much. I just think we need to stop relying on a comp of a player that just isn't a modern comp any more. What Hendricks did was awesome. But he's an extreme outlier.

Things have happened, yes, but I think the context about why they happened is important. First, Hendricks had an amazing changeup and was a command artist. He also played 10-15 years ago; right before the velocity wars started. Today, Bailey Ober and Martin Perez are the only two SP who average under 90 mph (with 100 IP). There were 23 in 2016, a decade ago. He also got a massive amount of groundballs; he got 57% groundouts at Double-A and his best years had him overing around 47-50% at MLB! Florintno is a decent groundball guy around 44% on the full season but hasn't shown that level yet. I think we just need to put Kyle Hendricks in a box. We all know what he did but the likelihood Florintino, or frankly, any SP is going to be such a massive outlier in today's game is just so damn unlikely. And that isn't to bash Florintino or say he can't succeed. The shape of his fastball gives me some hope that you can mold him into something. I just think we need to retire the "Well Kyle Hendricks did it!" argument I see so often when we talk about someone who doesn't have the velo. There's so much more that went into Hendrick's game. Ultimately, I think using it both makes us overlook some flaws in prospects while diminishing what made Hendricks so damn good that I think it's unfair to all involved.

I still think there's a guy there for Cabrera. I do think 2026 has been a rough year for him; whatever they're working on him with hasn't taken. But the Cubs have already said he's coming back in a relief position, so not sure Assad will be cleaning up much there.

Welcome to NSBB. It's a numbers game. You might not like that, but it is. He has options, others don't. Post deadline, the Cubs have next to no options to acquire more pitching. So to keep that depth for when players get hurt, they have to be creative. Assad is a fine long-man out of the bullpen. Maybe even a good one. But he also is the best option the Cubs may have if a rash of injuries hit the rotation and keeping him stretched out, while also preserving their depth required. It's a bummer for him, but we can probably take a step back and realize the club isn't run by idiots and that there is a rational and logical reason behind it.

For Kevin Gausman,

That'll be a fun 1-2 someday. I hope.

FV > Ranking. Every time. Fully agreed here. I'm at a point where I'd almost slide Ayers up a spot based on how high the Cubs are on him, they just seem to really like him which makes me question my own view, but that's probably a fair guess.

Sure thing! Glad to share the generals, though I'll refrain from a few specifics as I don't think it's my place. The Cubs don't think he's a shortstop defensively. And I think if we're being honest with ourselves we all knew that. What surprised me was what they thought of the bat; they don't like him offensively off of SS where the bar would be higher. One thing in specific was that his barrel just isn't very malleable. Layman's terms is that he isn't great at adapting his swing to meet the ball with the barrel all over the zone and they think that will limit him. If he isn't a SS then the bat has to carry the profile. The Cubs have concerns about the bat which isn't a great sign and the Cubs know Rojas probably better than anyone. And based on how they've done with trades and promotions, they haven't whiffed a ton on prospect evals over the last five years. Beyond that, the Cubs were very willing to trade him at the deadline, and far less willing to trade others. Owen Ayers was definitely a hot name and the Cubs were very "hands-off" with him as they handled other teams. Clearly they weren't so with Rojas moving him for two rentals. While I cannot confirm, I suspect the Cubs offered Rojas to the Blue Jays for Soriano, as well.

This is a very good summary of where I am with him, too. My hope is that we're seeing rust. But the reality is, he doesn't look good or right as of now. I had Townsend above those two, but when I ranked them, Conrad was struggling a little (it was right at the start of his hot run and then promotion) and Kepley had been just promoted. So that was my argument at the time. Crazy how a few weeks can change some math.

I'm going to give credit where credit is due: Greg has mentioned a few times he needs that kick change. And he's spot on. Get that dude a changeup to attack lefties.

Yeah, I think two things are happening at the same time: 1. I think many people are slow to promote Ayers based largely on his age. To a degree I can get that. Recent history has Matt Mervis emblazoned in our brain. Five years ago I think I was too high on Mervis myself. I didn't have some of his swing data initially, I didn't have TJstats and his fangraphs page made him much rosier than I think the underlying data did. The Cubs saw that and were hesitant into 2023 to turn the keys over and they were proven right. I think fans incorrectly think Ayers is under the same umbrella. The age-25 thing, for me at least, has become more of the reason he's not a top-25 prospect, but isn't holding me back from putting him in a 50-75 range (where I think he deserves to be in the big picture). Where I think they're especially wrong is that 1b is just an incredibly high bar to clear whereas catcher is an incredibly low bar to clear. Even if he doesn't hit well, he can still be a good hitting catcher. After a bump in league data last year, catchers are back to a paltry 90 wRC+ on the year. 2. I think you nailed the tiny-new-toy. I ranked Cade Townsend over Jaxon Wiggins right now, but that's mostly because Wiggins has been MIA in some fashion for nearly a year and when we have seen him he's a rusty mess. I probably wouldn't bat an eye on the upside question between the two, but I think Cade probably gets a nudge simply because we haven't seen him yet? And I wouldn't fault anyone for pointing out Wiggins was really good last year and I'm falling a bit into that trap myself. Probably a fair critique.

So this is our crowd-sourced voting results. My personal rankings can be found here which will also include a very brief reasoning behind it. I also hadn't seen confirmation on Wing's TJS at the moment, so I'd probably have dropped him a spot or two? I have Townsend third and Ayers is my personal number two. However based on the voting numbers, I wasn't able to outweigh the consensus. Reasoning behind Ayers #2 is based very much on how the Cubs view Ayers (from a few conversations I've had with some folks who know much more about how the team views him internally) and how they treated him akin to a top-50 prospect. He's had a great year, the Cubs love him and the data looks promising; I think it all adds up to the second best guy right now. They might be the high-man on the totem here, but based on how teams were asking about him, I don't think they're alone. I think the gap between Ayers and Hartshorn is smaller than the gap between Ayers and Townsend to give further detail. For a little spicy extra tidbit, however; based on a few things post-deadline which opened up my eyes a bit...I probably would have had Rojas in the four spot behind Townsend (or maybe right in front of him as a 3a/3b situation, I haven't super thought about it). And maybe that's reactionary (he was ahead of Hartshorn as recently as the previous voting on my personal list, so it's a stark change and I recognize that), but a few things have set my alarm bells off there and I feel like I have a lot more information today than 30-days ago. To the point where I think the Cubs' probably have a better feel there and I want to default to that feeling.

I also think that's fair, too. And why the down-list is so murky. Like, I wouldn't have Ariel Armas in my top-20, but would certainly have Dylan Blomker in it somewhere but anyone who has it flopped? What am I going to do? I think both are very possible. I think there are probably 20-25 players you could slot into the 11-20 range and I'd have an issue arguing with you. And most of those names (maybe all of them) are in High-A or below. It feels like a system we are not going to gain a lot of clarity on for a year or two, which makes it cloudy, but simultaneously exciting.

First off, welcome to NSBB! Secondly, I whole heartedly agree. I like what is happening in the system and how the Cubs draft. Their misses have been in odd-ball scouting years (2020 and 2021) where the whole baseball world got turned upside down. Beyond that, they have drafted well and have consistently turned MiLB talent into MLB talent in one way (promotions) or another (trade). Really, that's what you ask for. Even more promising is their ability to find talent beyond the top-10 or first-round. They have found prospects in the second round and beyond (no easy feat). The one knock is the pitching development and the team feels like they have solved that with Tyler Zombro. Truly, I feel good where they're going as an organization in how they handle young players. They've shown the ability to draft well. And they're also showing the ability to backfill.

Getting old is a bitch. My old ass passed out with Webb on the mound, two outs and bases loaded (I stupidly got in bed). Missed all the fun.

I think at the MLB level, players aren't just showing up with brand new swing paths on their own whim. It's a bit frustrating, I'm sure. However, I think there's probably an aspect that we're overlooking and they got lucky: they lost Tyler Austin right away and Busch has put up a 108 wRC+ against LHP. That's the sixth best LHH 1b against LHP in baseball. Its allowed them to have an extra bench spot all year and not need a specific "you hit all the lefties" type. Now, there are lots of arguments you could make, such as "that isn't an expensive fix" and I wouldn't disagree. But availability matters, and he's been a fine hitter against both RHP and LHP. He's just not really bad against LHP and gangbusters against RHP like he could be, as well.

Not approach; I think it's specifically the swing. His swing last year was essentially perfected for hitting RHP. Tilt and everything. Geared to hit the types of pitches a RHP would throw a LHH. But LHP attack LHH differently, so you have to angle and tilt a bit differently. And you can't really have a bag of swings; it's one or another.