Jason Ross

I'm all for Gallen. But it has to be a multi-year deal. It sounds like the Cubs would move Taillon in that case per Sharma and Mooney. The benefit of Gallen is both that he's better but also that he'd be there for 2027. I think only one team would consider going one year, and it's Arizona because they won't lose the draft pick (they'd just not receive one). If I were Gallen I wouldn't sign that, however. You can hit FA quicker, but I don't think Arizona is really capable of fixing him.

There's more to it than that. There's a lot of factors. First, he's attached to a QO. Secondly, how much does he improve the rotation? You can't just sign him to a one-year contract, pay a second round pick for a small increase. Everything has to make sense. That isn't to say a 1-year contract couldn't work out, but it's not as simple as "well I think we can improve him so whatever contract". If the Cubs behaved like a team, year-in-and-year-out that didn't care about this stuff we could have a different discussion. But I think this goes beyond "if" it simply makes the rotation better. It has to make it better in the magnitude that also accepts the loss of a QO for one year if that's the case.

His second half was more of a mechanical issue than anything else. He got too out front of the baseball, causing him either to crush the ball a bit foul or jam himself when he let the ball travel further. His point of contact got too far in front of the plate and his front foot a little long. With bat tracking data we can begin to determine issues. I wouldn't chalk it up to either variance or a concerning trend; players get out of mechanical sync from time to time. PCA has always been willing to work with his mechanics so I'm not concerned from that aspect. It wasn't just bad luck his mechanics got off, but it's not really a trend we should super worry about as like, the new norm. Very fixable and he's always worked on tweaking that aspect of his game. If there was a positive, his strikeout rate dipped second half. Instead I think we have to accept PCA is likely a streaky hitter who works on vibes and emotions and that's just kind of who he is. He will have times where he can simply carry a team and others where he's going to get off and struggle for a long stretch.

An important update from a former Cub:

His sample size was 66 PAs; let's not read much into that. Most of his data is just barely at "stabilization" at that point; it's so few PAs we should essentially ignore it. I'd say the same if had an 80 wRC+, to be fair. Also if you do want to really use his wRC+, than you can't ignore that his xwOBA was .40 points below his wOBA. You could point out that in that sample size expected data isn't very useful, but that's kind of the overall point; very little is useful in that small of a sample especially for a rookie. Again it's better to just take this sample size as what it is; so small it's not really worth it to try to project out from it. I don't hate Ballesteros at all, a rookie putting up a 120 wRC+ is a good rookie season here. Only three rookies with at least 300 PAs eclipsed a 125 wRC+ last year; Nick Kurtz, Daylen Lile and Roman Anthony so let's understand how impressive a 120 wRC+ would be. Let's not forget either, he had a 121 wRC+ in Iowa in a far larger sample. We should expect struggles to a degree; so giving him a 120 wRC+ next year is basically ignoring any drop off against a major increase in pitch quality. Ballesteros doesn't hit enough home runs to really think he's realistically going to make the jump to MLB and go beyond a 120 wRC+ in a meaningful way.

Image courtesy of © Zachary BonDurant-Imagn Images The World Baseball Classic is upon us once again! The last WBC made the event a true global sensation among fans, with some really epic moments (Mike Trout vs. Shohei Ohtani, anyone?) and some introductions to future stars to come to Major League Baseball (like Shota Imanaga and Munataki Murakami). As the nations gear up for the beginning of the sixth iteration of the Classic, we're here to break down how to watch it, and who from the Chicago Cubs will take part in the event. How to watch: If you're interested in solely the games played by the United States team, you'll be in luck (provided you have access), as all games featuring the team will be played on FOX. Not only will FOX host all of the Pool B games involving Team USA, but they will also be the home of the quarterfinals and the championship game, regardless of who's playing in those games. If you'd like to experience the entire tournament, you'll be bouncing around a little more. Between FOX Sports, FS1 and even Tubi, the WBC has many different streaming homes for individual games. You can get a full breakdown on MLB.com by using this link. Which Cubs are set to play in the World Baseball Classic? Matthew Boyd, SP - USA What a cool honor for Matthew Boyd, who has to be riding quite high. Signed to what seemed like an underwhelming two-year pact last offseason, the left-handed pitcher has seen quite the career rebirth over the last 365 days: making the All-Star team in 2025, pitching like the Cubs' rock in the playoffs, and now being selected to wear the red, white and blue. Whether Boyd gets a start or is used as a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen (as the Cleveland Guardians used the hurler in the 2024 season at times) will have to be seen, but he's going to pitch a few important innings. It's a testament to how hard he's worked and a reminder of how many injuries he's had to endure to get here. Alex Bregman, 3B - USA It's very likely that Alex Bregman will start multiple games for Team USA in the tournament and be a key contributor in the lineup. While it's a bit of a bummer that our first look at the team's new star third baseman will be in a pinestripe-less version of red-white-and-blue, this is a good sneak peak as to what we can expect. It's going to be fun to see one of the best players on the roster be a member of the Cubs over the next half-decade. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF - USA I wonder if Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be a starter, or simply a weapon off the bench to best utilize his glove and speed. Regardless, he's going to bring an air of excitement when he gets into any game. Sure, the young outfielder may strike out, but he's capable of creating pure electricity on the baseball field. While it's unlikely that he's going to carry the team in any capacity, it wouldn't be surprising if he ended up being a memorable and vital member of the roster. Seiya Suzuki, OF - Japan Seiya Suzuki won't be the most notable Japanese hitter on the roster, with the looming shadow of Ohtani looming over every moment Samurai Japan is on the field, but he should provide important protection for the Japanese superstar. Whether he's hitting just in front of or just behind him, Suzuki should be a mainstay in the Japanese lineup. With Japan offering one of the deepest rosters as well as being the defending champions, there's a good chance that Suzuki will meet his teammates in the quarterfinals or the championship game, setting up a pretty fun competition between them. Unlike in 2023, though, the Cubs' outfielder will not be joined by Shota Imanaga on the roster, who instead will stick with the Cubs in Arizona. (Suzuki himself missed out last time, due to an oblique strain. He's surely excited to get to participate this time around.) Jameson Taillon, SP - Canada Jameson Taillon has dual citizenship due to his parents, and while he likely wasn't going to crack a stacked American roster, he will be one of the best pitchers on the Canadian roster. Taillon has been a steady player for the Cubs, and getting a chance to shine on the world stage like this will be great for him entering the final year of his current deal with the North Siders. It's likely Team Canada will feature a few former Cubs as well, with Owen Caissie and Michael Soroka both having Canadian citizenship. That makes the Canadians a fun secondary watch for Cubs fans. Daniel Palencia, RP - Venezuela Daniel Palencia started the year in Triple-A Iowa, but finished the season as the Cubs' de facto fireman in the playoffs, being tasked with coming in to get the most important parts of the lineup (especially in the three-game-set with San Diego during the Wild Card series). He has used a great 2025 season to spingboard to being the favorite for saves in Chicago, and an important part of the Venezuelan bullpen. This will be a deep team, with other MLB stars such as Salvador Perez, Ronald Acuña Jr, and Maikel García all set to join Palencia. It wouldn't be that crazy if Venezuela ended up winning the whole thing, and it may just be the Cubs' relief ace recording the final outs. Historically, Team Venezuela has underachieved in the tournament, and they're desperate to change that this time. BJ Murray Jr., INF - Great Britain While BJ Murray Jr. isn't the biggest of names on this list, the Cubs farmhand will represent Team Great Britain during the Classic. Born in the Bahamas, Murray holds British citizenship. The British lineup isn't very deep, so even though Murray hasn't been on the upswing in the minor leagues, he should feature some for the team. Maybe a good showing will lead into a breakout season for the once-promising late-round pick. (Here's hoping the Brits also make a good showing, by outfitting the team with better uniforms this time.) Other players who may play: Not all rosters have been announced yet, but it's likely that Javier Assad will make Team México (also known as Novena Méxicana (the Mexican Nine)). Assad pitched for his native country in 2023, which boosted his career with the Cubs as the pitcher showed increased velocity in an impressive run. While Assad missed much of 2025, a good step to getting back to his previous form would be having a nice start (or two) during the WBC. Do you think these players are good selections to their respective rosters? Is someone missing? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

I am of the belief that yes, he can still learn how to catch even if he's the primary DH. They practice and the team has said that there is intrinsic value of their young players being with the MLB club. Game reps will always beat practice reps, but I believe the biggest issue standing in Ballesteros way, especially with ABS coming, is footwork and balls in the dirt (his arm is pretty decent in terms of strength). And I do believe there is real value with working with Carson Kelly (91st percentile in Statcast blocking) on a day to day basis. On top of that, the Brewers would, in an off-season, magically transform a horsefeathers defensive catcher into a better one by OD. Now, I'll hold off on suggesting the Cubs have the same fairy dust, but an off-season of work this year, another one next year, coupled with a day to day tutoring of Kelly, and likely some game reps behind the plate in 2026 (I expect he should see maybe 10-30 games? Let's see how health between he, Amaya and Kelly and his bat work) should provide plenty of development ability. He doesn't really need to be a catcher in 2026 outside of some curated games. You're really thinking 2027 and beyond with that aspect of his game and I think there is plenty of time to get there.

Yeah, I don't think Moises Ballesteros as a DH is a particularly amazing player. I think he's got a pathway be a fine DH, primary league DH was at 115 wRC+ last year. Once you drop to a "positional split" DH, it drops to 110 wRC+. Which is why a lot of how you look at him long term has to come down to his ability to catch. Considering we've heard the Cubs are high on Mo, that they reportedly wouldn't add him in deals last deadline (whether that's posturing or whatever, up to the individual) you hope that internally, they see him as someone who can catch 40-60 games at the MLB level. I think a guy like that becomes a far more special player. So that's always my hope. As it pertains just to 2026, my hope is that a Ballesteros vs RHP and Tyler Austin vs LHP is the key. Austin smashed LHP in Japan and even if he's like a 130 wRC+ guy against LHP (still a rosy projection, but down from his 170 wRC+ last year in NPB) you're going to likely be pretty solid at the position season long. It may not necessarily be "Austin starting at DH" (Busch might play against LHP some, it could be that a starter is playing DH but Austin is really drawing in for Ballesteros still, etc) but I kind of put the two together in most scenarios. I think the Cubs should be alright there, and the good news is that Suarez was relatively cheap at the deadline compared to P's last year. I think the Cubs should probably be able to fix the position worst-case-scenario in July, and I think they should be deep enough of a roster to handle a bad DH spot if all of Ballesteros, Austin, Long and Alcantara can't hold the spot down.

In 2026 or in general? In 2026 I think a strong-side platoon DH with a 115-120 wRC+ lead largely by strong BABIP and contact, mixed in with like 15 home runs. Bumps but no extended horrible runs of two-months where he's just terrible. Maybe he catches 10-20 games. Overall? Strong side platoon DH who catches as a 1A/1B situation with early-Freddie-Freeman type hitting. .363 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 18-20 HR. Freeman has never been a batted ball star and Ballesteros doesn't look like one either, so that's why I go with that. I'm not talking prime-Freeman, but those early years from like 2011-2015.

What you're describing is going to result in a likely case of survivor bias. If I picked 10 random hitters, there's a good chance I pick players who had long careers; we think of Scott Rollen a lot more then, Keston Hiura. And by doing that, I will only look at players who had a long career; it will create a data set that is incomplete. But there in lies the issue; after posting a 140 wRC+ in his rookie season, Hiura looked like a player "on the up swing". But young players don't just consistently get better. And before we get further; Hiura was a top-15 prospect in baseball on FanGraphs, well above anywhere Shaw got and he still collapsed. That's the issue. You seem to want to only assume Shaw is going to get better. The MLB is littered with Keston Hiura types; good prospects who failed, he isn't a special story. Hiura's rookie season was head above heels better than Shaw and he bombed. So why can't Shaw? If I compare Shaw to his arc instead of whatever good 3b who played 15 years, it changes things by a massive magnitude. I'm not saying Shaw is Hiura or Rolen or anyone. What I'm saying is that we can't assume the good outcomes for a rookie just because they're the outcomes we want. For the Cubs' sake they should hope Matt Shaw does have a long career but they also cannot assume it. Alex Bregman has had a very good career. We already know that. And he projects to age strongly.

Tyler Austin, the dude from Japan, is the RHH 1b/DH/COF. He cannot and will not log an inning in CF. Kevin Alcantara will be the RHH 4th OFer who will play some in CF and across the field. Shaw has been training in the OF. It's possible he sees time in the OF as well.

I'd probably have him more in the 7-range, but it's a system that isnt super fun right now. But it's par for the course. PCA, Zyhir Hope, Jackson Ferris, Smith, Caissie, Shaw, and Horton have all either been traded or graduated, Wiggins and Ballesteros will likely graduate next year. So it isn't really a terrible outcome. They've gotten pretty good use out of the system. The hope is that with strong drafting and development, another wave with Conrad, Kepley, and some young players bubble up and begin to replace that loss. Tyler Zombro having more influence in the draft room is probably a good thing too. Good teams tend to do this. Bubble up a wave, use or trade them, and then have to create a new wave. If the Cubs are good at this, they should hopefully begin to bubble up a second wave.

He's got a good bat to ball skills and can play a few positions around the infield at "acceptable" levels. I'd have Kevin Alcantara above him, but he has enough green flags that it's likely he will make an MLB organization and a debut one day. Conrad has higher upside, but barely played in the ACC and has yet to take a professional at bat. Conrad has a lot of theoretical upside, but we thought Cole Mathis coming from a lower level and being very strong with his batted ball data would immediately jump Myrtle Beach and his year was incredibly disappointing. Would it be shocking for Conrad, who has missed almost a full year of baseball come next April, to see him struggle? I really liked the draft pick, but having Pedro above him feels defensible if your giving him a floor benefit. I don't think Pedro Ramirez will ever wow anyone, but sometimes stable bat to ball skills turn into a 2b with a 105 wRC+ and those guys stick around for a while. He seems like more of a "sum of his parts" guy. And if you told me in 10 years the guy was still mulling around MLB, it wouldn't be shocking. Dude was 21 and posted a 122 wRC+ in Double-A. And while I'm a Rojas believer, at age 20 he had a 58 wRC+ at the same level.

Yep. I keep in touch with Yagyu from PSD. He runs SAVERMETRICS the X account that nails all of the amateur signings. He's great in keeping on socials. His tracking of follows helps give me an idea who the Cubs are interested in. They tend to draft players they follow. Example: Eli Lovich was a tip off I got pre-draft a few years ago. That doesn't mean every follow is a draft pick, but there's a connection. So while it doesn't mean they will get both, it is worth a note.

TIFWIW; Tyler Zombro has recently followed both Zac Gallen and Connelly Early on socials. Tracking who the Cubs scouts follow on socials is a way we can get a glimpse into mid to late round picks the Cubs are interested in. It may have use case here.

How would Matthew Boyd or Jameson Taillon benefit from sitting on the IL for the first portion of the season with a phantom arm fatigue injury? Do you think that will make them more attractive in FA to a new team next year? They can't just tell a team "oh yeah totally fake injury!" to a new team and be accused of collusion. A team is going to hold this against two pitchers who have injury histories already. Do you think them not pitching in games (if they have arm fatigue they won't be allowed to pitch in Iowa rehabbing in games, they would have to hang out in Arizona throwing, at best, simulated games) will help the Cubs? What if the phantom injury gets found out? Then what for the Cubs? All of that for one month of resting a guy? This horsefeathers is fantasy land cooked up by people on reddit and social media. Stop falling for this stuff. This isn't how the Cubs are going to operate or these players will operate. They're not going to engage in collusion like this. If they're healthy they will remain on the 26 man roster. They will not start the year off with a fake injury.

Arm fatigue is a real injury. Rehabbing is a real injury. "Put Matthew Boyd on the IL to start the season because we have too many SP's" or "Put Tyler Chatwood into Iowa because his control sucks with a fake injury" is fantasy. Every year we see fantasy scenarios concocted up on places like here, X/Twitter, reddit creating these situations where these players are going to go take a timeout for the sake of the Cubs. Boyd and Taillon are not going to make up fake injuries for the sake of the Cubs as they head into free agency. They're not going to just accept "arm fatigue" if they don't actually have arm fatigue.

"Most logical" doesn't mean "perfect". It means out of what we've seen, it's the most logical. I'd probably have Alcantara a spot or two higher. But we're not seeing Kane Kepley get like, top-5 love, or Alcantara as a top-40 prospect, either. So while it's not exactly how I'd go with it, this is the closest we've seen to a logical, top-10 that doesn't swing too far into shiny new toy syndrome.

McDaniel comes through with what feels like the most logical top-10 I've seen.

Yeah I'm not worried. The Cubs will be fine and will have a plan. They have enough arms with injury histories that they will need the depth at some point. My point with that previous post was to dispell this idea that the Cubs are going to place a healthy pitcher on the IL with some sort of agreement on a phantom injury. These things are fantasy. Boyd or someone may start on the IL, but as of today everyone appears healthy.

He lowered his 4 seam use last year and increased his strike throwing. His new arm angle seems to have fixed that on his own. I do expect that Cubs will tweak the mix, and I wonder if a cutter will be added and his mix will look more like Cade Horton; cutter, changeup, 4 seam to lefties, sinker, slider changeup to RHH.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View full article