Chicago Cubs 2026 Top 20 Prospects, No. 2: Jaxon Wiggins

I'll be interested to see how the FB grades out against big leaguers.  It's 70 grade velocity, but also has premium shape/movement on top of that.  So does that make it an 80 grade pitch and allow him to just spam it 55-60% of the time?

I feel pretty confident in Jaxon on a per-inning basis.  The question is going to be how many innings can we get out of him.  The question is unfortunately relevant both from a health standpoint and a role standpoint.

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'll be interested to see how the FB grades out against big leaguers.  It's 70 grade velocity, but also has premium shape/movement on top of that.  So does that make it an 80 grade pitch and allow him to just spam it 55-60% of the time?

I feel pretty confident in Jaxon on a per-inning basis.  The question is going to be how many innings can we get out of him.  The question is unfortunately relevant both from a health standpoint and a role standpoint.

Yeah, I think there's a real chance it's 80-grade. I try my best to save those types of things, but if he's hitting 98mph and with the IVB he's got, it's an insane pitch. 

What kind of innings limit do we expect? 120?

Just now, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

What kind of innings limit do we expect? 120?

Cade Horton went from 34 IP in 2024 to 147 last year (over split levels). Wiggins had 78 IP last year. I think if you asked the Cubs and got a fully honest answer, they'd tell you they probably didn't want to get to 147 IP last year for Horton but necessity required it. I would think Wiggins is probably in the 120-130 IP range, but the Cubs may push it if they have to. 

There was an anecdote from the first week or so of ST, I think from Mooney?  But basically a bunch of young pitchers threw the football around after practice one day and Hottovy had to adjust their throwing schedules for the next day or three to account for it.

The team with the benefit of their wearables now is able to get hyper detailed on workload/fatigue/etc.  So I think IP jumps are a cruder measure than they have to limit themselves to these days.

That said we don't have anything better on the outside.  I'd guess 140-150 innings like they got out of Horton is probably a good benchmark though?

- I think we had more reason to be worried about Horton at this time last year than we do Wiggins right now.  But like Jason said the team probably would have preferred to dial him back a bit

- On that last point, I know Wiggins went MIA for a month in the middle of last season, but it sounds like he was throwing the whole time.  He was kept out of formal games that would show up on a Baseball-Reference page but he was still building inninhs

- It's anecdata at best but increasingly it feels like the league will let anyone go into that 130-150 IP range.  Guys coming back from major injury, young guys, reliever to starter converts, etc.  It kind of doesn't matter if you're able to stay healthy *in that season* teams seem increasingly unlikely to set a ceiling much lower than 150

10 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Cade Horton went from 34 IP in 2024 to 147 last year (over split levels). Wiggins had 78 IP last year. I think if you asked the Cubs and got a fully honest answer, they'd tell you they probably didn't want to get to 147 IP last year for Horton but necessity required it. I would think Wiggins is probably in the 120-130 IP range, but the Cubs may push it if they have to. 

As Bertz just noted, innings is a cruder measure than than they have to limit themselves to these days.  

But just to use the innings, Horton was a strike thrower, Wiggins is not.  So I don't think Horton's innings are necessarily very indicative of what Wiggins might do.  Seems like Horton had a bunch of games where he was getting through 5 innings on 65 pitches, or 6 innings on 78 pitches or whatever. Some of that was intentional; they knew they wanted to limit his work both on season and in individual games.  So having him intentionally throw strikes and pitch to contact, I think that was a way to get more innings out of him without exceeding the his workload restrictions.  

Kinda guessing that Wiggins will need more pitches per inning.  

4 hours ago, craig said:

As Bertz just noted, innings is a cruder measure than than they have to limit themselves to these days.  

But just to use the innings, Horton was a strike thrower, Wiggins is not.  So I don't think Horton's innings are necessarily very indicative of what Wiggins might do.  Seems like Horton had a bunch of games where he was getting through 5 innings on 65 pitches, or 6 innings on 78 pitches or whatever. Some of that was intentional; they knew they wanted to limit his work both on season and in individual games.  So having him intentionally throw strikes and pitch to contact, I think that was a way to get more innings out of him without exceeding the his workload restrictions.  

Kinda guessing that Wiggins will need more pitches per inning.  

Correct. With that said, Wiggins has been throwing strikes with the fastball this spring and seems to have found that pitch even more than he had. We very well may need to adjust our expectations. 

MLB teams aren't using innings as a measure. I also expect that we see players more often wearing trackers like we see soccer players wearing. But you and I don't have that data so as of today, we can crudely us IP as a guess. 

On 3/17/2026 at 4:27 AM, Jason Ross said:

...With that said, Wiggins has been throwing strikes with the fastball this spring and seems to have found that pitch even more than he had. We very well may need to adjust our expectations....

Yeah, for Wiggins each pitch is a big deal.  But *IF* his fastball is both so good that he can afford to throw it a lot without guys sitting on it and killing it; and *IF* he can throw it for strikes a lot, to control counts; and *IF* he can even start to locate it pretty well, command not just control, it's way easier to succeed.  Building around one premier pitch that you can both throw a lot and throw for strikes just helps everything.  Can't get K's without getting to two strikes, obviously, and slider and change work way better as K pitches when guys chase with two strikes.  

Very optimistic, it would be so fun if he can throw enough strikes and locate well enough to stay excellent as a starter.

On 3/16/2026 at 1:58 PM, Jason Ross said:

Cade Horton went from 34 IP in 2024 to 147 last year (over split levels). Wiggins had 78 IP last year. I think if you asked the Cubs and got a fully honest answer, they'd tell you they probably didn't want to get to 147 IP last year for Horton but necessity required it. I would think Wiggins is probably in the 120-130 IP range, but the Cubs may push it if they have to. 

Guys are on pitch counts not innings limits these days.  Horton was very efficient, not a lot of Ks, BBs, or baserunners, so 147 ip isn't as bad as it seems.

We should all start quoting annual total pitch counts more, and stat sites should put those stats more front and center.

I'm a bit worried about his secondaries because they looked mediocre this spring.

Interested to see how the fb plays in mlb, looks pretty beastly.  Didn't know about his IVB, nice find.

I remember the biggest thing that made me hate the pick when he was drafted was that he couldnt throw strikes. The stuff looked dominant but he was wild. The strides that he has made in that department are very encouraging to the point where I see at least a number 3 starter but I'm pretty optimistic that he is going to keep improving this season and will considerably raise his ceiling. The secondaries clearly need some work but man, this guy just looks like a TOR starter. Having Wiggins, Horton and Cabrera potentially anchoring our rotation for the next few years is exciting.

5 hours ago, JBears79 said:

I remember the biggest thing that made me hate the pick when he was drafted was that he couldnt throw strikes. The stuff looked dominant but he was wild. The strides that he has made in that department are very encouraging to the point where I see at least a number 3 starter but I'm pretty optimistic that he is going to keep improving this season and will considerably raise his ceiling. The secondaries clearly need some work but man, this guy just looks like a TOR starter. Having Wiggins, Horton and Cabrera potentially anchoring our rotation for the next few years is exciting.

*If all three are healthy for extended periods of time.

19 hours ago, Stratos said:

Guys are on pitch counts not innings limits these days.  Horton was very efficient, not a lot of Ks, BBs, or baserunners, so 147 ip isn't as bad as it seems.

We should all start quoting annual total pitch counts more, and stat sites should put those stats more front and center.

Guys aren't on pitch counts either. Teams are tracking far more intricate details than PC or IP. We have that as crude approximations but they're tracking fatigue. This includes:

• How many pitches in an inning?
• How many high-stress pitches in an inning?
• How many high-stress pitches in a game?

And all sorts of other things. These teams aren't just counting pitches, they're tracking the minutia of each pitch; data we just don't have. The best you and I can do is boil this down to a rough PC or a rough IP limit. But as with all data, we're working with Duplo while the baseball world is working with intricate Legos.

19 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'm a bit worried about his secondaries because they looked mediocre this spring.

Interested to see how the fb plays in mlb, looks pretty beastly.  Didn't know about his IVB, nice find.

I'd like to see his secondaries improve, but if he's filling up the upper third with that fastball, he's going to be good. You can survive with decent/mediocre secondaries if you offer a beastly fastball. What will happen is that as players look to stay away from getting beat on that upper third pitch, they'll be more willing to chase those other pitches. 

It'd be best if his secondaries kept getting better, but if he can be a decent strike thrower with the fastball, he'll settle in, even if the other pitchers are merely "fine". 

I thought his slider was supposed to be above average.

7 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I thought his slider was supposed to be above average.

Shapewise, yes. However it's very inconsistent in how well he locates it. He has a tendency to leave it in some bad spots. So while I think the pitch looks like a plus pitch, the inconsistent nature of it has it as a "eh...IDK" yet. The fastball I'm much more confident in with the outlier shape and velo, coupled with what looks like better location this spring. The slider has good shape, but not outlier special shape, and spotty control, even this spring...so less confident.

40 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Shapewise, yes. However it's very inconsistent in how well he locates it. He has a tendency to leave it in some bad spots. So while I think the pitch looks like a plus pitch, the inconsistent nature of it has it as a "eh...IDK" yet. The fastball I'm much more confident in with the outlier shape and velo, coupled with what looks like better location this spring. The slider has good shape, but not outlier special shape, and spotty control, even this spring...so less confident.

What are the chances that the starting 5 in 2027 consists of Horton, Cabrera, Steele, Brown and Wiggins with Boyd, Tailon and Shota coming off the books? Obviously that’s contingent on Brown polishing his secondary pitches+command as well as Wiggins.

I’d assume they’ll add another arm (Gallen for example) with durability being is a concern.

20 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What are the chances that the starting 5 in 2027 consists of Horton, Cabrera, Steele, Brown and Wiggins with Boyd, Tailon and Shota coming off the books? Obviously that’s contingent on Brown polishing his secondary pitches+command as well as Wiggins.

I’d assume they’ll add another arm (Gallen for example) with durability being is a concern.

It's possible! Though I think with any "internal prospect heavy" rotation, I think it's somewhat unlikely. This is asking for perfect health across the board with five arms who have had their fair share of injuries, and two of those players have yet to establish themselves at the MLB. 

It'd be fun, but it's probably more likely that there is at least one free agent add and one of Brown or Wiggins isn't in there.

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's possible! Though I think with any "internal prospect heavy" rotation, I think it's somewhat unlikely. This is asking for perfect health across the board with five arms who have had their fair share of injuries, and two of those players have yet to establish themselves at the MLB. 

It'd be fun, but it's probably more likely that there is at least one free agent add and one of Brown or Wiggins isn't in there.

More likely than not. But with over $50 million coming off the books it’s nice to have internal solutions.

I had this same fantasy back in 2006 with Rich Hill, Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall complimenting Zambrano. Way different situation right now of course. .

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

More likely than not. But with over $50 million coming off the books it’s nice to have internal solutions.

I had this same fantasy back in 2006 with Rich Hill, Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall complimenting Zambrano. Way different situation right now of course. .

I loved the Guz. 

10 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What are the chances that the starting 5 in 2027 consists of Horton, Cabrera, Steele, Brown and Wiggins with Boyd, Tailon and Shota coming off the books? Obviously that’s contingent on Brown polishing his secondary pitches+command as well as Wiggins.

I’d assume they’ll add another arm (Gallen for example) with durability being is a concern.

I think that's such a fun scenario. 

Heh heh, and I'm the only guy in Cub fan-dom who likes Assad quite a bit; who thinks his success past may be more than fluke luck (3.43 career ERA); and who thinks he's got some potential improvement ahead that still hasn't been fully tapped.  So he might be another low-cost option after the 3 tickets expire.  

Rea is also under club control for next year at $7.5.  

I'm not much of a believer in Wicks, but I know Jason and some posters still have hopes.  Would be fun if his current injury wouldn't last too long, and where by season end we'd actually have hopes reestablished?  But yeah, if you had your 5 names, plus Assad-Rea-Wicks, you could hypothetically enter next season with 8 candidates before either resigning any of Shota/Taillon/Boyd or signing some other FA.  So, could be in good position. 

Shota, Taillon, and Boyd are $57 combined in lux this season.  
 

On 3/19/2026 at 1:26 AM, Stratos said:

I'm a bit worried about his secondaries because they looked mediocre this spring.

Interested to see how the fb plays in mlb, looks pretty beastly.  Didn't know about his IVB, nice find.

True for sure.  As good as his fastball may be, there aren't really many/any good big-leaguers who don't have some good secondaries. He's not going to be a big success unless one or two of his secondaries end up being good.

Really interesting to see how those progress.  

I saw one effective spring outing.  I thought the changeup looked pretty good, in that outing better than the slider to my amateur eyes.  The slider was kinda good, in terms of sharp movement; but it missed so badly in that outing that it didn't tempt.  

I think Wiggins is a smart, dedicated guy and they've talked him an elite athlete.  Maybe he'll never improve secondaries enough, and end up Marmol or Justin Grimm.  But I think it's more likely that he'll work on those pitches and improve the consistency with both change and slider.  Think both will look more controlled and consistent in July than they looked in February.  Pretty optimistic!

16 hours ago, craig said:

True for sure.  As good as his fastball may be, there aren't really many/any good big-leaguers who don't have some good secondaries. He's not going to be a big success unless one or two of his secondaries end up being good.

Really interesting to see how those progress.  

I saw one effective spring outing.  I thought the changeup looked pretty good, in that outing better than the slider to my amateur eyes.  The slider was kinda good, in terms of sharp movement; but it missed so badly in that outing that it didn't tempt.  

I think Wiggins is a smart, dedicated guy and they've talked him an elite athlete.  Maybe he'll never improve secondaries enough, and end up Marmol or Justin Grimm.  But I think it's more likely that he'll work on those pitches and improve the consistency with both change and slider.  Think both will look more controlled and consistent in July than they looked in February.  Pretty optimistic!

 

Marmol’s slurve looked like a frisbee. He could spin the horsefeathers out of it with that low arm slot.
 

When we’re talking about Wiggins secondary pitches are we talking about a lack of variety or simply a lack of movement and command? I’d bet whatever he throws is better than Killians spike curve or he wouldn’t be a top 100 prospect. 

It's command and consistency.  The slider moves plenty enough.