Jason Ross

Owners are cheap and would love to save any money they can (I.E. see how they handled the MiLB side of things in 2020). But I also don't think this is just an owner cost cutting move. Players out of HS can earn NIL money now and if you can go to college and get paid, it's a win for these kids in many ways. UK SS Tyler Bell passed up second round money from the Rays to go play in the SEC. He certainly got NIL money and will likely be a 1st round pick meaning he'll double dip.

I don't think they were "desperate" so much as Cabrera does a bunch of what the Cubs like and the swap made sense. We have OF'ers who are young and we need some SP. The Marlins clearly liked Caissie dating back to last year (which I get, I like Caissie too). I think we'll all be fine with the trade when it's all said and done. Edwin Cabrera is fun. Guys who throw 99mph with a 94 mph changeup don't grow on trees.

I love Owen Caissie more than anyone, but "hell of a price tag" was a borderline top-50 prospect, let's pump the brakes, man. Owen Caissie has plenty of swing and miss in his game. And we should know better than to flip out about prospects that get traded and their first month of action. Cabrera is a bit of a risk, but was in a bad pitching org for much of his career. The Marlins are on the right track there right now, and they started to really figure it out last year (also coincides with his best run). So how about we take a deep breath right now. Maybe Caissie is a star and Cabrera sucks. Or maybe Caissie runs a 30% K rate and doesn't figure it out and Cabrera turns into a solid SP. We have no idea. Hot take statements can make you look real silly in the count of a few weeks when we're talking the first weekend and when one of them hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

This is all more fun than the striking out and the weak contact.

Make it three, Pete. Make. It. Three.

Happ sucks.

I've been told Bregman couldn't possibly be good since the Cubs aren't cheating.

Shota has 13 swings and misses and his fastball velo is sitting at 92.3mph on the day, mirroring his 92.5mph in Spring Training. He gave up a home run, but I'm encouraged by the stuff and misses. Those are really good signs.

To be fair to Shota, that pitch (labeled here as 4) is well off the plate.

Sigh. Some weak contact and then Weimer hit a HR on a pitch well below the zone.

That was a good sequence from Shota. And he was hitting 93mph. That's a big deal.

Right, but Bellinger is probably a good example of this. Bellinger over his last three seasons has a 125 wRC+ compared to Pete Alonso's 128 wRC+. I'm using the last three because Bellinger was really bad four years ago, but it also eliminates a 141 wRC+ season from Alonso which increases his wRC+ to 131. Regardless, in those three years, the HR difference is stark: 78 for Bellinger and 118 for Alonso. Bellinger is far more of a defensive asset than Alonso. ZiPS also sees this, giving Alonso a healthy 138 to 121 wRC+ projection in his favor despite their fWAR being very close on that projection. And yet, the difference in AAV between Bellinger (27m per year) and Alonso (31m) is just $4m. If we grade them on similar regression models, the .5 slip each year based on their most recent ZiPS projection for 2026: Pete: 3.8, 3.3, 2.7, 2.2, 1.5 = 13.5 over 5 years = 2.7 fWAR average Cody: 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5 = 16 over 6 years = 2,6 fWAR average These two contracts are very close. Cody got an extra year, but he's a few years younger. However, when we look at the ask of each, Alonso is being asked to average a little more per year, but the difference in AAV is $4m. It's not a massive change. And on total value, it's a difference under $10m. If we were seeing some league wide trend that players who gain value more through their bats, I think these contracts would not be so similar. Bichette probably does not belong in this conversation, however. His contract is an opt-out heavy deal that very likely will be a one or two year deal with the goal to re-hit free agency. We should probably bin that one in a different discussion. Overall, I think we may see slight biases towards home runs and offense, but I don't think there's some league wide trend where similarly valued players are being given significantly larger contracts. A few million AAV might be noticeable here or there, but even at $4m you're talking like the difference between a Hoby Milner.

We like that.

Yeah, I'd really hate his guts if he was a Brewer.

Ian Happ sucks.

Damn. Bregman smoked that.

Dansby is the mansby.

I'm also just a fan of his story. He's been through the absolute ringer injury wise, and he's kept trucking at the toughest position to play in the sport, and one of the toughest in all sports.

Based on the 1st K to James Wood, which was 2 inches over the box, but Wood walked away without even thinking about a challenge? James is a tall man. And then I saw the video replay and it looked right at the top of what I'd assume the zone is. I'd say "no way".

I wasn't that bold, but on the recent NSBB Pod my bold prediction on the year was that by the end of the season Amaya was the 1a to Kelly's 1b and would be the guy starting game 1 of a playoff series. Which isn't even because I think Kelly is going to be bad (I've got 105 ish wRC+?). But I think Amaya is a guy.

Any time! Man, I'm just jazzed to be talking baseball. It's good for the Cubs to be back. And you know, regardless of whether or not we think Hoerner is a scoosh under or overpaid, the good news is that the Cubs are actually spending money. 2-3 months ago the team had very little extended and guaranteed longer term. If they are going to start acting more like a big market, we all win.

Miggy!

It's hard to know how long the infield will keep up their plus-to-elite defense, but when you add in PCA and to a degree, Ian Happ, it's really fun right now with how good the team is defensively.

Cade Horton simply does not horsefeathers around.

Well, BABIP gods smile upon thee today.