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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    If I were Brandon Lowe I'd be quite mad right now.
  2. Jason Ross
    It's April 12th. There's no pressure. I know we all want them to win every game, but these players and coaches have been here before. They know it's April. Even if they lose, it's just noise. This is a team that was largely in the playoffs last year together. They aren't sweating games in April like fans are.
  3. Jason Ross
    You know, scoring runs is more fun than not scoring runs.
  4. Jason Ross
    I lied. I just wanted to sound cool to fit in. I'm still watching. Home runs are fun.
  5. Jason Ross
    Mowing the lawn took a bit longer than expected. Turned the game on to check the score. Turned the game right off. That's enough baseball for me today.
  6. Jason Ross
    Harvey to the IL. Cubs recall...uh...Charlie Barnes. As someone who knows a pretty fair deal about the Cubs, I had no idea who the horsefeathers Charles Barnes was,
  7. Jason Ross
    Walking Happ to get to Seiya "I'm not a fan of swinging early in the count" feels like an unforced error with a guy who can't throw strikes.
  8. Jason Ross
    Baez has made a career out of that.
  9. Jason Ross
    Hahaha. Pitchers suck at throwing to 1b.
  10. Jason Ross
    Caleb. Buddy. No.
  11. Jason Ross
    Damnit. I sincerely wouldn't have swung. That guy couldn't throw 3 strikes in 7 pitches at that stage.
  12. Jason Ross
    Breggy! Oh yeah.
  13. Jason Ross
    Bat speed is one of the fastest statistics to stabilize. For context, "stabilize" means to do exactly what you're saying: it takes out randomness or a small number of events causing things to be thrown off. For things like strikeout rate, that is over 125 plate appearances! Some take a long time. Bat speed stabilizes in under 10 swings. That's why people talk about it; because the sample is stable very quickly. https://jrod20033.substack.com/p/understanding-bat-speed-how-early
  14. Jason Ross
    We have a bad habit of grouping things and ignoring others when it comes to baseball. Particularly, I think we're predisposed to negative beliefs about our players or our team. For example "we are so inconsistent", "we can't hit with runners on and less than two outs" or about a player being "hot and cold". It creates a situation where it acts like every other team or player isn't. Pete had some mechanical inconsistencies last year at the end of the year that caused him to get out front of the ball too much. That's a normal happening. Freddie Freeman had a long stretch where he had a 60 wRC+ last year between great play. He's nevermore than hot stretches. But he won't be a 70 wRC+ hitter outside of cold ones. Pete Crow-Armstrong was a 115 wRC+ hitter last year. His wOBA was .321 and his xwOBA was a .323. I think that's a fair guess as to where he finishes this year. When's that going to happen? As with anything, it's more likely a player becomes who they should be every day than what they aren't. So, I think sooner rather than later he'll start being the Pete we know better. Players have rough starts to the season. We're barely into the season. He will be fine.
  15. Jason Ross
    Yeah that's a general feel. One thing that came across my feed this morning is that since the implementation of ABS walk rate is up in Triple-A and MLB by around a percent. So I'll say that I still expect normal, swing heavy Nico come around and his walk rate to be a single digit. But if you told me he walked like 7.5% or 8% vs 6% at the year end? Id buy it.
  16. Jason Ross
    In an article from 2010 (so, dated, but I'd assume the information still rings true) walk rate stabilizes as a statistic around 120 PAs. Which for a data point is pretty large; many will stabilize in half that or less. https://share.google/DV55TDeixbH5Lszii
  17. Jason Ross
    Interesting phrasing...
  18. Jason Ross
    Giolito looks pretty cooked. Ignore the ERA for a moment from last year: - K% was down from 25% to 19% - o-contact% up 10% - 3% swinging strike down - contact% up 5% - Stuff+ down to 92 from 97 To recap: hitters swung less (because they're hunting pitches), made more contact when they did swing, made more contact on chase pitches, stopped striking out, and his pitch shape really sucked. Not good. There's a reason he's a free agent in April. If he wants a full-on MiLB deal with some sort of an opt-out by May-15th to show he's got something in Iowa? Sure. But beyond that, there shouldn't be any rush to offer him a spot. Rea and Assad are probably just as good, Wiggins is probably not *too* far away, and Connor Noland is probably fine for a spot start or Ben Brown if you need them. With how much time it'll take for Gio to ramp up (say, 3-4 weeks) i's probably not far off from when Boyd would be around coming back.
  19. Jason Ross
    His plate presence is great. You can see where the Cubs were impressed. His behavior at the plate is not of a prep kid.
  20. Jason Ross
    We kid but if there's a positive he entered today with the second best xwOBA of any Cub in the lineup tonight. He's hitting the ball legitimately well.
  21. Jason Ross
    Englert sucks.
  22. Jason Ross
    Won't know 'till they get in.
  23. Jason Ross
    Not yet. Worst case is a full TJS. Best case now is a brace like Steele. The former is out all year in 2026 and most of 2027. Best case? We'll have him mostly next year.
  24. Jason Ross
    Feel free to join us live. We're reacting to Horton, and previewing the game tonight.
  25. Jason Ross
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