Jason Ross

Ahhhh that makes sense!

I'll say this...all of those predictions would track. They're not crazy. That said, unless it's coming from Passan or Rosenthal or someone like that...I'm just going to ride the wave here on Ohtani. I don't think we'll see much from small fish here.

He is followed by Craig Mish, who's the pre-emptive Blue Jays beat writer. Also followed by La Canfora, mostly NFL past though. With that said, I doubt any one has an idea of who it's down between. That seems pretty hard to know with how little leaks we're going to get on this.

Yeah tomorrow would make sense if this goes down before the meetings. Figure people are traveling and getting ready to travel on Saturday with the meetings kicking off Sunday evening.

A Yamamoto doomsday scenario for New York baseball exists in which Shohei Ohtani chooses a team other than the Dodgers — semi-informed gossip about that scenario is rampant this week in baseball circles — leaving Los Angeles with hundreds of millions of dollars to lavish on Yamamoto - Andy Martino, NY Post

I think we have to remember that there's a reason teams run on advanced metrics now a days. It's hard to fathom a run saved=a run earned with how many more offensive opportunities players seemingly have but strong analytical teams who generally overplay their talent levels are doing so with much of this as a basis. Teams like Milwaukee and Cleveland have made livings on strong defensive teams (obviously with strong pitching, as well, it's not just defense) with much poorer offenses. Regardless of whether the Cubs play half of their games in Wrigley Field, defense remains a factor (I also think the "easy" of Wrigley Field gets over blown). I don't think t's a coincidence that the Cubs have a "type" when it comes to players up the middle (athletic and strong defensively). They are also aware of their field and how it functions. PCA has to hit some but he doesn't have to really hit that well. He can't be Brenton Doyle horsefeathers with the bat of like, a 43 wRC+ (but then again, almost no one is Brenton Doyle bad with the bat). But a .230/.280/.390 line matches Varsho's and he was worth 2 fWAR because of his speed/defense. If Pete Crow-Armstrong hits, even CF league average (98 wRC+) we're talking about a 3.5 win player. If he's a 110 wRC+ hitter, he's 4.5 win player. As long as he can avoid being epically awful, he's pretty much a lock to be useful. It might not be a "pretty" kind of fun at the plate, but his usefulness will remain.

Oh, for sure. It's always the risk with the young, brash, hotshot like PCA. He's just cocky enough to where the importance of the situation may just not occur to him so he just goes out and is an absolute monster, or, he gets exposed like he did. I'm hoping it's a good moment for him to learn.

I would assume Bichette could handle 3b. His arm strength isn't particularly strong, but neither is Swanson, Hoerner, or Madrigal and all three have been +DRS players at traditionally "strong armed" positions with both the Cubs and other teams. He's been a pretty neutral, or slightly +DRS player at SS over his career (except for the -16 in 2022, but that feels like a weird outlier based on his other data). I think he's a square peg, square hole for the Cubs in that he's a good player, with control. With all that said...the Blue Jays aren't trading him. Recent reports refuted they're interested in moving him and I don't see the motivation. I don't see the Cubs matching up well with them either. So I think if there's a square peg, round hole area it's these things. We aren't getting him.

Yeah, PCA is a blast. In many ways, I could see him being a Cubs-version of Ryan Braun (hopefully without the steroid scandal!). That guy who's really good for the Cubs but if you're anyone else, you really kind of hate that jerk. He's loud. He' fun. I think getting his ass kicked for a few weeks in the MLB will be good for him...he needed a little humbling. I think a Kevin Keirmaier kind of career sounds like a good "mid-ground" for what he can become. He'll hit 20 home runs, provide excellent defense and every so often put up 4 wins.

One of the reasons why people believe the Rangers may be out on Ohtani is just this reason (per Rosenthal).

I wouldn't let 19 bad plate appearances ruin anything. The best players in the world struggle for 19 PA's, let alone a kid under 22, making his debut during a playoff race. If most players get 4 plate appearances a game, that's like, 5 games. Shohei Ohtani, for example, had 18 PA's where he had a negative wRC+, one hit and struck out 40% of the time. Not saying PCA is anywhere near the player Ohtani is, only that, bad small samples exist for anyone. Sometimes they happen at the start, or in the middle. And many times young kids struggle upon their first few games, especially if they have added pressure. I think if you had doubts on PCA before those first 19 PCA's, you should have them. If you didn't don't trick yourself into extra worry, either, if that makes sense. I'd say the same thing if he hit .700 with 8 home runs in those 19 PA's.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been regarded as the Cubs' top prospect for the last two years. Making his debut in Chicago, and having a successful campaign in Double A and Triple A in 2023, when do we think PCA will permanently roam center in Chicago? And just what kind of a player is the brash center fielder? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Pete Crow-Armstrong entered the season with the hope of many that he may be able to make an impact at the highest level with the Cubs at some point. With strong defense and running, his path to Chicago was fairly clear as long as the bat continued progressing. The good news is that he did just that: he debuted with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. The bad news is that he didn't look particularly comfortable during his short stint with the team. Starting his season in Tennessee, Crow-Armstrong got a hot start in 2023 in his first real taste of the level. The quick-footed PCA, hitting .316 with a 129 wRC+, showed why people were so high on him. However, he showed flaws in his game, such as his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, walking just 3% of the time compared to a strikeout rate of over 22%. It's not that the K's were high, but his free-swinging nature was showing out a bit, causing his walk total to remain too low. Still, the hitter persevered and improved in this area while maintaining a strong offensive output. May saw his walk rate jump to 8% (though a dip in his wRC+ to 96), and a further lowering in his strikeout rate began to show that at least at the Double-A level, the flashy fielder was figuring things out on the other side of the diamond. June saw Crow-Armstrong take off and announce that maybe he was just done with Double A: walking 11% of the time now, posting an ISO north of .230 and with a 149 wRC+. By August 1st, it was time for promotion to the Cubs Triple-A affiliate in Iowa. Iowa started similarly to Tennessee for PCA: a bunch of strikeouts in his first few games and a little walking, striking out seven times in only 18 plate appearances. This kind of struggle wouldn't last long. Pete's next 51 PAs saw him hit three home runs, four doubles, and a triple of a .353 batting average and a 173 wRC+. More importantly? Only ten strikeouts, coupled with nine walks. Crow-Armstrong would hit a few skids here or there, posting a -5 wRC+ from August 20th through the 29th, but finished relatively strongly over his last 11 games (though with increasingly worse strikeout numbers). Looking for a spark, he was called up to the Cubs for the final handful of weeks. Sadly, his call up was not the spark plug the Cubs hoped it may have been. With his electric speed and defense, seeing the brash youngster catch fire wouldn't have been surprising. Instead, over his 19 plate appearances with the Cubs, PCA went hitless, striking out seven times and being caught stealing twice out of four attempts. It was kind of a disappointing run. Frankly, I think it was good for him... 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Where Pete Crow-Armstrong starts will be up for debate over the next few months. As of the writing of this article, the Cubs only have Mike Tauchman ahead of PCA on the center field depth chart. While Tauchman had some initial magic, he struggled to the tune of a sub-90 wRC+ over his last ~170 plate appearances. The Cubs could allow auchman to play "caretaker" of the position for the first month while Pete Crow-Armstrong readjusts in Iowa. There's no rush on PCA, and his first 19 PAs showed that he still probably has something to learn, even if it's simply a little humility. But for someone with as much confidence in himself, as PCA does, it was probably good to get knocked down a bit, as it should force him to reevaluate some of the things he can work on (namely, his plate approach). Craig Counsell's hiring for the managerial position may also affect this choice; Counsell was no stranger to playing rookies in Milwaukee (Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, to name a few) in important roles. He also was fearless in playing defensive first players (such as Turang and Jace Peterson). It wouldn't be crazy to think Counsell's pick would be the defensively near-elite Pete Crow-Armstrong based on his history. The Cubs may also re-sign someone like Cody Bellinger, who won the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year award. While Bellinger would be able to slide over to first base if/when the cocky kid was ready, it would be probable that he would start in center while PCA got some extra time in Iowa. How good is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and why is he in the number one slot? The first reason is his floor. Playing a premium position, providing excellent defense, and being a demon on the bases give PCA one of the easiest paths to two wins I've seen out of a prospect. Dalton Varsho, in 2023, posted an 85 wRC+ (.220/.285/.389 slash) but was still worth 2.1 fWAR because he was a +2.8 on the bases and +18 DRS in CF. Brenton Doyle was the worst-hitting center fielder in baseball with a horrible 43(!!) wRC+ but led the league in DRS for center fielders and was worth a whole win. All the Cubs' top prospect has to do is match Varsho with the bat, and he's a pretty near a lock for two wins. But what's the ceiling? That's a more complicated question. The reality is that there are a lot of outcomes here. If PCA controls the zone with the bat, settles down the approach, and allows the game to come to him just a little more, there's genuinely a 5+ WAR player here. He's got 20+ home run power and the swing to provide it; he has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and combined with the things we know he's good at (speed and defense), he could become a multiple All-Star. But if the approach isn't fixed and lags, that two-win floor might be where he settles in. He's our top prospect because he offers a unique combination of floor and ceiling, but he is not without fault. Regardless, there's a chance that the Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez trade in the summer of 2021 becomes the Mets version of Lou Brock, and while that may not happen, it's really fun to dream it, isn't it? View full article

Braves have been the most connected here, but it does say "finalists". Wonder if the Cubs are in any way involved.

If you figure that out...any MLB team in the league would hire you! The prospect game is such a horsefeathers show of hopes and dreams, really. It's weird, you fall in love with these guys and most of them, at best, are the answer to some obscure trivia question.

While not "Cubs" related, think this is important. Does seem as though regardless of any Soto trade, the ultimate goal will be to hit free agency. Maybe that changes, but does seem to back up any of the preconceived notions on Boras clients.

It's really easy to do. I know I'll be refreshing twitter pretty much obsessively next week with the Winter Meetings going on. I'd love to see Ohtani go somewhere before then from a personal standpoint so I can either just be on cloud 9 or accept it's just not going to be a thing.

Oh, Smyly wasn't necessarily "apart" of the rotation, but a guy I expect will make a few starts (and can). I'm not a big Smyly guy (still mad he got a multi-year deal).

Yeah, typical twitter filler stuff for slow news days.

I haven't seen anything to suggest he's very legit. He has some classic hallmarks of being sketchy: pinned tweet bagging about a source break, for example. Now, in his case, his is a little odd in that breaking whatever minor personnel firing isn't a sexy thing to break, which adds a bit on the legitimate side. Chris Cotillo was famously a young kid breaking into journalism who also broke things online and was questioned...he now covers the Red Sox as one of their lead beat writers...so these people are not always fake. With that said, I'm not sure there's much news in there. We knew the Cubs, Dodgers and Blue Jays were in. No one has expected the Red Sox to be a player here. The Rangers remain a team on the periphery from sourcing, so that wouldn't be shocking they dropped out. So whether he's legit or not, this is pretty surface level stuff overall (which leads me to believe it's not?). I'm more inclined to think small sources might hear about teams dropping out (those teams won't care about leaks any more), but the actual signing will almost assuredly only be broken by the biggest of the media guys. Not some random.

Ryan Flaherty, finalist for Padres' managerial job, will be named Cubs' Bench coach. Former Padres bench coach. Per Britt Griroli As an aside, I remember watching the draft in which the Cubs selected Flaherty. I hate that I'm at an age now where players I watch drafted are managing my favorite team. I hate it.

Pagan to the Reds: 2/$16m

Yeah, with Ohtani, there seems to be a lot of different and swaying views out there as to what he wants. We've heard he wants a winner. We've heard he wants to be close to the West Coast. We've heard conflicting reports that he cares less about geography and more about the ballpark. We've heard it's not just money. We've heard he wants little media attention on the meetings... It's a pretty interesting free agent experience. On one hand, he's the biggest MLB free agent since A-Rod, and on the other, it's been basically devoid of any leaks, speculation or anything other than a few "maybes". We won't see many free agent experiences like this one, I don't think.

I'd put this in the same category as Ohtani feels like a forgone conclusion to the Dodgers in that I think it's an easy connection to make (large market + need), but one that we'll have to see play out. If Ohtani ends up in LA, for example, I'd expect the Cubs to seriously pivot there and can largely match anything the Yankees provide if they're encouraged enough. Others as well.

Based on his followers there's a few decent ones in there. Does seem to have been out front on some Mets front office firings? If so that points to something. Hard to tell, as those four teams (minus the Angels) seem to be the four getting the most love right now in the media so kind of low hanging fruit plus his former team and LA rivals. Rangers being out might be notable, and lack of mention of the Giants might be interesting. These smaller sources are always so hard to pinpoint. I'm sure some of them have some people they know and others are just riding coat tails. Some of them are Chris Cotello who ended up being a real journalist and now covers the Red Sox and most are just guys hoping to make it seem legit.