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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    Love the confidence in Horton!
  2. Jason Ross
    With the market the way it's at, I'd be shocked to see anyone's value slipping. Once you get past Ohtani, Soto and Yamamoto, this free agent class sucks. Guys like Jordan Montgomery are looking at $140m over 6. Chapman should be fine.
  3. Jason Ross
    I think Ben Brown is far more likely to make a bullpen impact than Horton, personally. Especially if the Cubs get, say, a Glasnow, there will likely be starts available. Hendricks, Steele, Taillon and Glasnow have injury histories, and it's likely they'll go down. I'd expect Horton, who's pretty ready as of now, will be option #1 and kind of think he'll make 10-15+ MLB starts this year. Brown, however, with the more spotty fastball control is less likely ready to start, but also, could be a really fun BP addition post-TDL. Might make a few spot starts, but I think I expect him to make more impact bullpen wise.
  4. Jason Ross
    His last year was pretty weird which has given me a lot of pause. The quality of contact was great, but the home runs fell off. His last 467 PA's saw him post an 84 wRC+ with just a .150 ISO. That's not a small sample size, and the fall of on ISO from where he has been over his career his final five months last year was real. I can't tell why the quality of contact doesn't match the power/results. There doesn't seem to be any less launch or barrels. Could be weird datasets. Could be bad luck with doubles not turning into home runs like they have in the past. Could be he's losing some power on his swings despite the batted ball data. Really weird set of information. I'd be skeptical of Chapman, but can see the appeal. My fear on Chapman is that he fits a lot of what the Cubs have been signing, and he can't be the best new player this offseason. He's a pretty good player with some variance that suggests he could bounce back to being a better hitter than 2023 made him look. There's offseasons the Cubs have where they add Chapman and that's pretty cool! And others...where I'd be a bit bummed.
  5. Jason Ross
    On the Seattle trade; super interesting. I've seen some suggest they're making a run at Soto, but other suggest this is more about crappy ownership. Hard to tell. For a team who needed offense, they've shipped two (positionally) average to slightly above average hitters out and acquired...nothing to help them in that department. If we're talking about a Chapman home, they, too, would make sense.
  6. Jason Ross
    Chapman is almost assuredly going to get over $100m, ya'll. He isn't signing for 2 years.
  7. Jason Ross
    Yeah, I think we're in the end game spot. Probably a little tweaking and moving things around and then deciding. I'm hopeful for a choice in the next few days.
  8. Jason Ross
    Feels like your typical "this is what Boras is going to tell the media" thing without it being actually what he expects to get.
  9. Jason Ross
    I would imagine so.
  10. Jason Ross
    Juan Soto chatter really picking up the last two days.
  11. Jason Ross
  12. Jason Ross
    They've been listed by two separate sources the last 24 hours as highly interested in Yamamoto and as "among the favorites" to sign him. I don't necessarily think Ohtani is the only player they're willing to spend on.
  13. Jason Ross
    I don't think he's reporting anything, just that there were reports he was in SF, but this appears to be wrong.
  14. Jason Ross
  15. Jason Ross
  16. Jason Ross
    It's been reported the Mets, the Mariners, the Rangers and the Red Sox are out. I could see the Yankees, just over the Padres and their silly asks for Juan Soto, jumping back in here. They'd have money and means.
  17. Jason Ross
    Yeah there are probably a lot of moving parts here. I had said in another post well back in the thread that what I expect is that once Ohtani signs that we'll hear he left money on the table. Not really because he did but because when you math out these contracts with options, performance bonuses, etc, one contract may seem to have a larger number, even if it's unlikely he'd have gotten that.
  18. Jason Ross
    I don't disagree with anything you suggest after the first sentence. The Chicago Cubs should be a perennial WS contender. They should spend money. But who are these other legitimate stars they're going to sign this year? There's Ohtani and then Yamamoto, and there's some belief that Yamamoto is more "all-star" quality than "superstar" quality (I'd be very interested in him regardless). If the hope is "sign Yamamoto now and then hope to sign Soto next year", why not just...sign Ohtani now? There' no guarantees we can sign Soto next year, no guarantees he'll hit free agency (as likely as it seems he should, there remains a non zero chance he resigns wherever he ends up). We're a finalist, by all reports for Ohtani. Let's ride this out. Just sign Ohtani. He's two superstars in one. There's no reason the Cubs shouldn't be trying to sign him based on every other word you posted. The idea that the Cubs would be better off spreading it around, I just don't agree. Get the unicorn. Obviously, if we miss on Ohtani and he wants to go elsewhere, then pivot. Go get Yamamoto. Go get Soto (either by trade or sign him next year). I'm not saying don't spend. I'm also saying...get Ohtani when you can.
  19. Jason Ross
    Yeah, I agree with the second part. My guess is that it's a combination of personal impatience, excitement, and nerves. I know I've caught myself getting on the "refresh twitter compulsively" team the last few days.
  20. Jason Ross
    The "he might sign before the WM's" wasn't really random people. It was coming from respected people in the industry. I wouldn't listen to this "dave" guy on twitter, but people like Morosi, and others, suggested it could get done pre-WM. Certainly not the first high prized guy to not sign before the meetings, and if he doesn't sign in the next few days, won't be the first to sign after the meetings. But I also can understand where people thought he might sign before, too.
  21. Jason Ross
    Within the week sounds good to me. That could be Monday, it could be next Saturday.
  22. Jason Ross
    Maybe. But let's look at it this way: let's suggest the Cubs are going to look to add one impactful contract and one major SP in this market (based on budget limits, luxury tax, etc). Glasnow works perfectly with Ohtani; he's not going to be break the bank via trade, and he'll be gone after year one. But if the Cubs lose out on Ohtani, perhaps it makes more sense to put the money into, say, Yamamoto, as the big add and then trade for like, Pete Alonso. Could they in theory trade for Glasnow and sign Yamamoto? Yeah, sure! But I think we know the Cubs probably wouldn't. The Cubs post-Ohtani could have wildly different paths in how they handle the offseason.
  23. Jason Ross
    I would consider Glasnow and Cease impactful, however, and I think both get moved in the next few days. Same with Sonny Gray who's already signed. I think it's important to point out, that there's a secondary market of good, impactful talent that will likely move and these players could be apart of "Ohtani Part 2" for whomever signs him. I understand that there are plenty of players, agents and teams who are going to use the Ohtani secondary market (teams who miss out) as leverage, but not everyone will as was your original message. I'm not trying to be pedantic, only to showcase, that I think a few more good, impactful talents will have new homes regardless of the Ohtani timeline.
  24. Jason Ross
    "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". If you wait every offseason for the next year's star, you'll never have one. It's time for the Cubs to stop collecting a bunch of pretty good players. It's time for the Cubs to start acquiring legitimate stars. Not only is Ohtani a 2024 signing at DH, he represent a 2025 signing of a top-of-the-rotation SP when he returns from TJS. There's really no argument, to me, in not signing Ohtani. $500m is a lot of money. But Ohtani is both a $200m hitter and a $200m pitcher and he's only one roster spot and there's a significant revenue boost for whomever signs him. There's a reason he's getting these offers...he's legitimately worth it.
  25. Jason Ross
    I think most are, but clearly not every one. The Cardinals have inked three starting pitchers including Sonny Gray. I have a feeling the Rays may move Glasnow before Ohtani signs. Dylan Cease seems likely to be traded in the next few days as well. So while I think a good 90% of the market is sitting on Ohtani (just a rough estimate), I think a decent portion of the market will still move.
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