Jason Ross

Wicks just hasn't been super economical lately. The whiffs are up but he's now working through a bit of strike throwing. Young pitchers...I guess. Damn.

Bummer. That 3-2 pitch was real good. Behind the plate umpire has been *real* good. There's been plenty of games we have played that's a strikeout. Julio makes you pay.

Murray...on my cold list.

Busch with a double. Really, really like him.

All I'm saying is this: Koen Moreno: on my cold list. Ballesteros: on my cold list Who you want to do well next week, good sir? I'm taking requests.

If that's the case, then he's robbing Peter to pay Paul (though there's nothing but speculation there). The reality is, at 91-92 mph with less spin, he's likely going to be hit real hard. Throwing more hittable strikes isn't a recipe for success. He already had a weirdly homogenous arsenal between fastball, slider and cutter. With lower velocity and less spin/tilt from the cutter, he's in no-mans-land with the differentiation of pitches. As a Cub fan I'm rooting for him, but nothing he's doing is a recipe for MLB success currently.

His velo drop is combined with a spin rate and tilt rate loss. That's not normal. We usually see these major drops preceding injury, or simply, decline.

He's. Still. 18.

Think Gomes messed up a wee bit that inning. Can't believe there wasn't a single changeup tossed with 2 strikes to Urias. That change played well to Raliegh (RHH). Still, on Wicks to not hit him; not an excuse.

Yeah, there seems to be a slight uptick in velo here from Wicks. Had been sitting 92-94 (though much more 93 than 94) previously and now seems to sit 92-95 and more regularly in the 94 spot

In his defense...that's the first batter he's hit since he's come up. Damn.

Two down. Let's strand 'em.

Great job on Raleigh! back to back beautiful changeups.

Early trouble for Wicks.

I'll take an 11-1 Cubs victory, please.

I'm sure the folks in Chicago know everything x100 over me. I'd guess this is a temporary few day thing and they're hoping as much as we are hoping that Keegan is only needed to be used in mop up duty based on game flow. He's someone you can easily return to Iowa in a few days while keeping a "break glass in emergency" starter in Wesneski ready. The drop off from Wes to Keegan right now probably isn't huge considering the mop up nature he will likely serve and the lack of important moments he would see. And then he becomes a pretty clear DFA guy if he tanks (replaceable by a CJ Edwards?). Or a simple shuttle to Iowa guy if he's not horrid.

Well...if you didn't see my article today on his struggles...it's prescient now 😆 But for real, I hope he does well. He's had some struggles and I'd love to see him succeed.

Yeah, Keegan. I'd add Riley into the 12% would with the other "non-40-man" group. Keegan is on the 40-man, and you could make the argument that he'd come up, eat a few innings this weekend and then immediately get DFA'd opening up another 40-man for like an Edwards after if you really wanted to keep Wesneski down in Triple-A to stay stretched out. But I think Keegan is toasted right now. Wrote about him in an article on the front page. Velo is down. Spin is down. He's fixed his release point issues which I think caused his walk problems, but the stuff is just so down. Whether it's an injury or decline, not entirely sure, but I don't trust him at all right now.

Yep. I'd handicap it at: 70% Wesneski 15% Thompson 12% McWilliams/Pannone/Edwards group 3% Hodge

The 2022 season saw two Cubs pitchers who had struggled with health and consistency break out: Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Armed with new pitches, better stuff and renewed health, both looked like they could play big roles in the Cubs' pitching future. One of those arms became a Cy Young contender; the other has fizzled out. What's wrong with Keegan Thompson? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports The 2022 season saw two Cubs pitchers who had struggled with health and consistency break out: Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Armed with new pitches, better stuff and renewed health, both looked like they could play big roles in the Cubs' pitching future. One of those arms became a Cy Young contender; the other has fizzled out. What's wrong with Keegan Thompson? It wasn't long ago that Keegan Thomson was considered a key part of the Cubs pitching staff. Once a third-round selection out of Auburn, by the summer of 2022, the right-handed pitcher was poised to be a part of the Cubs' long-term future. Thompson was at the forefront of the sweeper revolution; showcasing a slider with far more horizontal than vertical action, and the results began to show it was quite a useful pitch, especially against right-handed batters. The sweeper saw opponents hit just .158 and limited them to a .258 xwOBA. While he did not feature it prominently in 2022, the pitch began to look like a weapon. With a pitch like that, coupled with a cutter-fastball combination, you'd expect that Thompson would remain a viable arm out of the bullpen, at the very least. Yet, less two years later, the 29-year-old looks likely to be a 40-man casualty at some point soon. Entering the 2023 season, Thompson was positioned well to be a multi-inning, high-leverage arm. As a reliever in the prior season, the right-hander had an impressive 30% strikeout rate, to go along with an opponent batting average of .156 and an xFIP of 3.30. Needless to say, these are pretty darn good numbers and someone you would expect to be a weapon in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings of tight baseball games. Despite this, the year did not go well for Thompson. Experiencing a 10% decline in strikeouts, a 5% rise in walk rate, and a 5.44 xFIP, Thompson was sent back to Triple-A. Figuring out where things went wrong is a bit difficult, on the surface. Between '22 and '23, Thompson saw an increase in things such as first strike% and whiff%, as well as a decline in throwing meatballs. These things shouldn't signal a collapse in strikeout or walk rate. More strikes are good, more whiffs are good, fewer meatballs are good. Where the issues began were with the spin, tilt and stuff Thompson had been throwing. Below are the spin and tilt charts from Thompson's 2022 (left) and 2023 (right). Notice how the cutter has shifted. As well, notice the purple (changeup) being almost eliminated from the scatter plot. There was far less overlap of cutter/fastball. One of the biggest issues, as well, is that Thompson's release point got lost from the two seasons. Again, the chart on the left is 2022, and the right, 2023. Notice how in 2022 the release points were all very concentrated. This likely allowed Thompson to hide his pitches more. While on the right, there is a clear gap. If we zoom in further to the 2023 side, you'll notice that the cutter and the fastball seem to be the biggest culprits here. A lack of consistency with a release point could lead to higher walk rates (5% increase) a decline in strike-out rate (10% decline) and hitters hitting better because you're tipping pitches (a massive increase in xFIP). Keegan Thompson would be sent to Triple-A after just 30 innings with the Cubs in 2023 to work on himself and get himself right. Sadly, the results were not positive. A further decline in strikeout and walk rates would occur in Iowa, while seeing his xFIP at the level balloon to over 5.00. The culprit? Continued inconsistencies at the point of pitch release. As the right-hander entered the winter, it looked as though he would likely have to start the season in Iowa again to show improved consistency. For Thompson, a slight lifeline came in the form of the Tampa Bay Rays, as reports were that the Rays were interested in Thompson as a potential piece of the return for starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow. These hopes would be dashed, as the Dodgers acquired the former Ray in a trade later in December, and Thompson would remain with the Cubs. Thus far in 2024, Thompson has fallen further away from the pitcher he once was. With a decline in fastball velocity of 2 miles per hour, Thompson's overall numbers are not looking great. Granted, much of this has to do with his initial outing, in which he surrendered three runs total and one homer, while striking out one in his first inning. He still doesn't appear to be "right" with the decline in stuff. He's barely thrown the sweeper this season in four outings and hasn't thrown a fastball over 94 mph. His Barrel% is over 24%, and the launch angle against him is in the 20s as well. Despite the lack of runs in his last few efforts, guys are hitting him. I don't like writing this eulogy. Keegan Thompson looked, in 2022, like a great story and an early pitch-lab success for a team that had been starved for a homegrown win. Instead, Thompson has struggled with mechanical consistency and a drop in velocity. If there's a silver lining, it's that in the past, the stuff has been good enough to play up, and the Cubs have squeezed juice out of arms. However, if he's going to be giving up this kind of hard contact and with a velocity drop, there doesn't seem to be a lot of time left for Thompson. The Cubs will need some relievers on the main roster, and they'll have to eventually find 40-man slots for guys like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Cade Horton who could all be up later. After we learned Thursday that José Cuas will be optioned to Iowa, there's speculation that Thompson will come up in his stead. Based on what we've seen from him this spring, that doesn't seem likely to solve as many problems as it creates. Unless Thompson turns something around sooner rather than later, he's very unlikely to contribute positively to the bullpen. He might be called up, but it could be just to act as an innings sponge sometime this weekend, with a DFA waiting on the other side so that the team can turn to a reliever with more upside left. View full article

Yeah, McWilliams right now is clearly a stuff-pop-up guy. There are at least a few small positives on the HR front here here: his xHR is actually 3, so he's had a bit of bad luck there. He's also getting over 20% in zone swing and miss (above Triple-A average) and a 37.9% chase rate (way over Triple-A average), and he's not showing signs of being a walk machine. My hope here is that McWilliams has improved/worked on some of his pitches and mechanically, he's working through commanding that kind of stuff that he just hasn't had in his arsenal before as well as working through being a professional pitcher once again. Lottery ticket for sure, but probably worth a monitor. As rough as our BP has been and injuries...McWilliams popping up as a RHP option in the bullpen in June or July doesn't sound super shocking.

Well, I think we have to remember that we have a handful of injuries right now, and it's early in the season when it comes to MiLB players. With Merryweather on the IL. Asad in the rotation, Brown in the rotation...we are on our 4th best replacement BP arm. Before guys like Horton and Arias could realistically be MLB options. I do think you're under selling someone like Hodge though. In 2022 Hodge had a 3.44 xFIP at High-A as a 21 year old. Was borderline pitcher of the year in the minors. Last year he was moved to the pen to fix command and it never got better. This year he's 23 and throwing a lot more strikes. It's early but he's looking like a useful talent. I'm not sure I'd go to him yet...but I wasn't sure I'd go to Brown either.

Thompson would be among the top of my DFA candidates right now. I don't think they will. I'd guess either: 1. Merriweather is 60-IL'd and Edwards/Pannone/McWilliams is added. 2. The Cubs go with the easy call and go Wesneski or Thompson. But I'd expect Wesneski. McWilliams is looking good stuff wise and Kohl was just brought up. Feels like this is Wes territory. 3. They go to Porter Hodge. Hodge has increased his strike rate to 68%, is on thr 40 and has awesome stuff. It'd be a huge jump but Ben Brown was a big jump and he's been mostly successful. Counsell does things a bit different and I could see him liking the stuff there. I find this unlikely right now...but it feels "on the table" as an off the radar thing.

Thompson is a disaster waiting to happen. I've got an article in the can talking about him. His velocity is down. His stuff isn't moving as much. And he's been hit hard even when he hasn't given up runs. I'm really hopeful it isn't.