Jason Ross

A cue to sell? No, not exactly. But the equation is quite different as well than being 3.5 back on Monday (or better) and may cause the Cubs to far more seriously explore moving Stroman before losing him for nothing versus the alternative which is then a clear sign to be more aggressive. Especially if we are living in a sellers market.

Yeah, I'm re-working my pre-season top-X right now (waiting till post deadline to settle). I think he's around the James Triantos-s of the system for me. He gets a boost for being in AAA and really only needing a strong 250 PA sample size and health to be on the MLB radar while getting a drop in the risk considering how bad the last 2 seasons have been. So that's like the 11-20 range or so. I think FG's dropping him to the mid-40's is just ridiculous (and I say this as someone who's been a Logenhagen fan, but this feels like a hot-take that just doesn't land for me), though he deserves a drop. I think the first line of your post is a pretty decent way to describe it (I like it, and I'm probably going to steal it later!). My expectations of how likely he is to reach his ceiling is fading, but I still think there's a player there who can reappear if bad luck disappears and allows some positive development to occur.

I wouldn't sell tonight. Come Monday night, the Cubs could conceivably be 5.5 games back again. I think the Cubs will likely have to go down to then to determine what to do. At 5.5, the ask is still pretty big and I think the equation becomes far more difficult. Not saying that happens, but I think the Cubs ultimate choice will really be made with where they are in the next 2 days. From a fan standpoint, it'd be a lot more fun if they're 4 games back.

Yeah he does have a back issue now, but it's what the back issue is, isn't really known. We know he has "something" with his back right now, but the only back issue he could have reoccurring would be the stress fracture he had in the AFL (the other "back" issue was less an issue with his back and actually to with his vascular system. It just so happened the vascular issue was around his back. Think like sciatica type of a thing. But everything I can find is that's not a reoccurring issue once it's fixed). This may be the first reoccurring issue, or it might not. Until we know, I hesitate to call it reoccurring to be fair to Davis.

Thanks JD! I really appreciate it. I try to be really patient with prospects and I think looking at Steele and Alzolay and maybe Amaya, that patience, while a hard thing to have, is important. Davis might bottom out, but I want to give him as much leeway as possible. He seems like a dedicated kind of dude. I want to root for him

There’s no debate; the last two years and change for Brennen Davis have been no-good, downright bad, disappointing, awful…frankly they’re any synonym for “bad” pops into your brain. Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports Brennen Davis's performances have been filled with strikeout issues, multiple injuries, disappointing results, and weak contact…and this is quite the fall from his position of grace exiting the futures game in 2021. The easy thing to do would be to look at the sub 70 wRC+ he’s put up in his two seasons at AAA and write him off as prospect attrition and that he’s a lost cause. With that said, I’m not writing Davis off yet, and I’d recommend you not, either. Why is that? Let me give you three reasons… Reason #1: Look at the current MLB roster The Cubs have done a great job with “dead” prospects in recent years; Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay, and Miguel Amaya are three players who have been written off multiple times, and all three are playing roles in MLB. Steele toiled away for nearly a decade, battled injury, battled the belief he was only a multi-inning reliever, only to turn into what is arguably the best starting pitcher on the roster today and a well-deserved All-Star appearance. Adbert Alzolay battled an abdominal injury that cost him a full season only to come back in 2021, proceeded to get rocked by LHH in 2021, and was written off by many only to turn into the most reliable bullpen arm on the Chicago Cubs currently. Miguel Amaya battled the belief that his bat wasn’t good enough (despite being well underage for his levels) and essentially lost over two years of development to Tommy John Surgery to become the 2nd best catching option on the Cubs and arguably the Cubs' best option as the future of the catcher’s position. So who’s to say that two bad seasons and injuries will be why Brennen Davis cannot resurrect himself? Davis is 23 today; it took Steele until the age of 27, it took Alzolay until age 28, and Amaya until age 24 (and the reality is he probably won’t be 25 until we know what he really is)...time remains for him to turn into something. The Cubs have had successes with prospects in their second and third lives. Davis may be on his second or even his very own third life, but there’s a precedent that the Cubs can work through injury and developmental disappointment to get there. Reason #2: He’s adaptable Prospect development is not linear. As much as it’d be perfect for prospects to get better steadily, one step forward each day, we know that’s not the case. Development can come in bunches, and sometimes players take steps back before moving ahead. Thankfully, Davis has shown a unique ability to be adaptable. When drafted, the general belief was that Brennen Davis was toolsy but largely a work in progress. His scouting report from Baseball America at the time of the draft read that he would need “two years” in Arizona before seeing A ball. And yet, Davis met and exceeded all expectations, tearing through the MiLB for his first few seasons resulting in that multi-home run performance in 2021 in the Futures Game. He worked on his swing and barrel control, and the resulting hitter was impressive. His best tool was seemingly his ability to hit for power the opposite way, showing it off multiple times on increasingly larger stages. That would change, however. Entering 2023, the book was pretty different on Davis; his long levers and lanky size were starting to work against him; the K% had ballooned to over 30% in AA and bordering 30% in AAA (a frightening concept as K% and contact rates are among the best correlators to MLB success). However, with some work and cleaning up his chase rate (especially elevated fastballs), Davis saw his K% drop to 18.7% this season, which virtually mirrored his K% during his 200 PA stint in A ball in 2019. Yes, it’s easy to look at the >70 wRC+, but there was ability in the process of bat-to-ball; there should be reason to believe he can find the middle ground between bat-to-ball and damage. Going back to Baseball America well, BA wrote in 2022, “He’s a fast learner who makes quick adjustments and controls the strike zone.” The adaptability is certainly there, and the learning may be fast when it happens. He’s already shown the ability to take his K% and contact issues to heart; who’s to say he can’t work on the quality of contact, too? Reason #3: Bad luck has some part in this On the one hand, this is a damning question, but on the other, there’s reason to think it can point to the injuries as somewhat “flukey” and out of his control. His health issues are certainly frustrating but seem in part to bad luck. Can we blame Davis, for example, for having a nerve issue in the back? Or being hit in the face or on the hand and breaking a finger? None of these issues are recurring or should be things that hold him back moving forward in theory. Perhaps we can blame an overzealous Davis for the stress fracture, pushing too hard to return, but even that shows a player dedicated to his craft. All of this raises the question of how healthy Brennen Davis has been when we’ve seen him. And how has that affected his numbers? It’s hard to separate the injury and the poor results in many ways. Davis may be fast learning, but it’s hard to learn if you’re not playing. As well, it’s hard to blame Davis for the loss of development during the 2020 pandemic-lost season. Davis did “play” and practice with the Cubs, but I’m not sure he didn’t suffer from the lack of an actual, real season. The quotes out of the Cubs’ camp at the time were glowing, but it’s hard to put much stock into that. Some people have bad luck, but bad luck often runs its course, just like good luck. We could also rattle off injuries and bad luck in the previous cases of Steele, Amaya, and Alzolay. Injuries are annoying, they’ve claimed many a previous prospect, but sometimes, bad luck injuries stop happening. So what does it all mean? No one is saying Davis shouldn’t currently have some dark clouds hanging over his prospect star. No one is saying to rank him as the #2 prospect in the system behind Pete Crow-Armstrong (I don’t have him as #2 in my personal rankings). But perhaps, we can all have a little patience. The upside of Davis was always that of a starting OF’er with strong barrel control, impressive bat speed, and raw power. There was an almost universal belief that the ceiling of Davis stretched to the point where he could become an All-Star caliber OF’er. While I certainly believe the last few years have made it less likely for Brennen Davis to become the all-star OF’er he was predicted to become, it doesn’t mean he can’t. Brennen Davis may return in 2023, and he may not, but in either scenario, he'll still only be 24 when the AAA season kicks off next year. I don’t know what Davis will become, but I’m not willing to simply give up on him, and I certainly hope you don’t, either. Hearing Davis having a bounce-back season in AAA in 2024 wouldn’t be among the craziest things you could predict. View full article

Just needed a winner to rope me back in! I've watched considerably more MiLB.TV than MLB.TV since 2021 for sure.

I think there's enough data to suggest it's possible. SSS and defensive data is up and down here and there, so I think nothing definitive. But maybe Madrigal can do a Jace Pederson thing at 3b.

Big credit to Madrigal for his work at 3b. I really thought there was no chance he'd work out there defensively. Totally wrong on that front.

Man, close to taking that back. Good job, Gomes.

Bold strategy, Jameson. Let's see if it pays off for you.

He's probably the worst defensive OF'er in baseball as of today when it comes to movement. He's got a 70+ grade arm, but holy horsefeathers he has no idea how to track a flyball. That should have been the dead giveaway.

Same. Even more so when I saw Walker who looked like he had that thing tracked. After the HR it dawned on me how dumb that was, Walker's horrid in the OF. Bottom 1% OAA, bottom 6% OF jump.

Good horsefeathers, Happ.

Cardinals, according to Mozeliak, will not deal Arrenado.

Opps, that was meant to say NYM. It's that Kentucky education of mine shining through again.

I guess I don't get this from anyone's point of view. If you're Texas, why the hell do you want a $43m Scherzer next year if he's not worth $43m this year? If you're Scherzer, are you willing to give up a shot at $43m and a pretty good team just to keep options open? I doubt you're going to do better. And the Mets gets Acuna? What a weird, weird, weird trade.

The one thing I'll say is this: while it hurt the Brewers last year...it doesn't appear to have any hold over effect; they're in first place. That doesn't mean there might not be some under the hood stuff that isn't public knowledge and some grumpiness, but from the outside looking in...they seem fine. They were able to take the prospect from Hader and directly turn him into William Contreras, who's putting up a 3,0 fWAR season and still has 5 years of control. I think any instance the Cubs were to sell, they're out of the playoffs in that case regardless. You could make the argument the 2022 Brewers are a reason to for the 2023 Cubs to sell. Now that would hinge on the Cubs finding a 3 win, controllable player, which isn't easy. In fact, I'd say that, over the emotional damage, is the real kicker.

I think that's a pretty simplistic view for what or what does not make a good prospect. Does Spencer Strider suck because he had a 4.71 ERA in AA (he never seriously pitched in AAA). This isn't saying Ben Brown = Spencer Strider, only that development comes in many facets, and while it's always more fun to see prospects bang away with amazing ERA's or impressive batting averages, many times numbers can hide talent. Ben Brown isn't ready to be apart of an MLB rotation today today. His fastball command is inconsistent and may never become consistent enough (it also, might!). I also think he's a really fun prospect and doesn't suck.

It wasn't a direct apples, to apples, literal, comparison of how often teams win and lose in those sports, instead an example of how fans incorrectly use the transitive property. I recognize the Cardinals recently beat the Diamondbacks. I also recognize that Arizona's in a bit of a dry spell. I wouldn't in any way say it's more impressive to take a series off the Cardinals simply because the Cardinals took a few games off Arizona recently. Arizona is the better team. I also think it's good that the Cubs are beating bad teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, so it's not a dig at the Cubs wins. But I don't think a recent dry spell, or a recent hot spell changes how the two teams should be viewed. Arizona is just better.

It's a seller's market this year so far. Giolito went for more than I thought he would, and that feels like way more than Scherzer should be netting.

Yeah, Alonso is fun. That would certainly change things.

I don't think they're going to sell either. If I was handicapping it, I'd say the most likely thing is that they'll hold Stroman and Bellinger, and maybe add some small something and call it a day. But I think of the 3 forks the Cubs can realistically take, it's my least favorite of the 3. On the first point...I don't think that will happen until the offseason regardless.