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Jason Ross

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  1. While not impossible, this also feels a bit, video-gamey. Christopher Morel has already shown that he can't really relied on to play the OF, despite having many of the necessary characteristics (athleticism, strong arm), which many believe is a very easy switch to make (I disagree with this belief myself, just saying it's something I know is out there). The Cubs didn't trust him to play 3b despite the athleticism and the arm. I'm not so sure he can just play 1b, or, really, if it's a great idea. His bat isn't so good you have to force it into 1b. So far, in his career, Morel is a 114 wRC+ hitter, where as league 1b put up a 108 wRC+. He's a bit better then the average, but then you're teaching him a new position with little fall back options on the roster. It feels a bit square-peg-round-hole. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels less than optimal too. Secondly, moving Happ, a positive fielder, to 1b, to put Soto into LF, a negative defender, to get Morel, a slightly above average DH (league DH 106 wRC+, but these get a bit skewed as players who primarily DH only, usually hit well above that level) feels like a rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul situation. Both outcomes feel like less than the best outcomes the Cubs can have, when it might just make more sense to trade Morel for Soto, use your prospects or remaining funds to fill out positions. Jim Bowden is generally an idiot, but he has Candelario pegged at 2/$15m (total) this offseason. I'm not the biggest Candelario fan, but I think him at 1b makes more sense than either of the above options at that price. We can debate that price and I'm a bit skeptical on it, but it's just one example. Not meaning to tear down your suggestion, only that I'm not sure either are really great routes other than just making due and I think the Juan Soto thing will get done early enough in the offseason (based on reports) that I'd prefer the Cubs to do more than just make due. For me, Morel becomes pretty redundant unless he's an MLB 3b with Juan Soto. Which isn't to say I think he can't be a successful 2b or 3b, but that's really where his athleticism (in theory) should meet the bat ability at a place to maximize his value in totality. Maybe the Padres aren't enthused by Morel and we have to make due, I just don't think we'll be there if Soto gets dealt to the Cubs.
  2. They "can" give him time at 3b, but the Cubs seemed entirely unwilling to do so last year; Morel had just 4 starts and it wasn't like there was a definitively better answer at 3b between Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. There's a potential for that willingness to change, but the Cubs reasoning behind that is unknown to you or me. However if he's not going to be a 3b for the Cubs, then what's the point of keeping him after a Soto trade? He picked up 100 innings at 2b last year, and it isn't like the Cubs don't have multiple other options in Nick Madrigal, Luis Vazquez, and currently on a mid-June/early July ETA, Matt Shaw. DH will be completely monopolized by Happ, Suzuki and Soto. The amount of playing time and opportunities will be pretty limited. He's a terrible OF'er, and a worse CF'er (the one position there may be realistic time, because whomever isn't taking DH between Soto/Happ/Suzuki will be in the corners) and the Cubs have players like Alexander Canario and the potential return of Mike Tauchman who will provide plenty of options at those positions outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The amount of time available in the OF is next to nothing. So the entire equation comes down to "Do the Cubs think he's a 3b?" If the answer is "no" than I cannot see a world where the Cubs are getting much of anything except 150 PA's from Christopher Morel post-Juan Soto, and that's no where near worth trading from the 2nd tier of prospects (Alcantara-Caissie-Shaw-Ballesteros-Brown, etc) tier to ensure. If the answer is "yes" than you can make an argument that keeping Morel and trading prospects has validity, but again, it's answer neither you nor I can answer. And frankly, we have such limited data on, that we can offer little insight into whether we think he's capable there. That's entirely a "Cubs" question and in the event the Cubs trade Christopher Morel for Juan Soto, or don't and instead trade prospects, we will get our answer.
  3. For all of the questions surrounding Triantos. despite the obvious "small sample caveat" it's nice to hear a solid report on Triantos' defense for once.
  4. A breakdown (using bWAR) of teams net gains/losses via trades since 2012. The Cubs have come out pretty strongly over that time span. Make of it as you wish, but did find the data interesting.
  5. This is just spitballing on Morel; I think it's fair to say that the jury is way out on Morel overall. Going back to his MiLB days, the scouting report on Christopher Morel was always positive on his defensive ability. We know his arm strength is really high, he's in the 99th percentile there. His athleticism is very high, he's an 81st percentile for his sprint speed, as well as being a positive on the base paths. He hasn't really shown much aptitude at CF, which has really hurt his defensive value as an MLB player, and he's always been an infielder. The Cubs seemed unwilling to play him at 3b last year and he's blocked at 2b with Hoerner (logging around 100 innings here). Why the Cubs refuse to play him at 3b is something no one can answer (though I suspect it's his arm slot when he throws, but that's just a guess). If you're "high" on Morel, you probably see someone highly athletic, who posted a 119 wRC+ in 425 PA's last year and a career 114 wRC+ over 850 in his career who's more than athletic enough (in theory) to either handle 2b or 3b, though with his throwing angle I think you'd have to probably see a 2b as of today. There's something with staying at a consistent position as well that should make him settle in a bit. He probably wouldn't really need to improve; his 119 wRC+ last year would make him the 7th best offensive 2b. Brandon Drury (114 wRC+ last season) finished with a 2.5 fWAR, logged a -1 DRS in 700 innings at 2b (-4 in 500 innings at 3b), and was a negative runner. Even if Morel was a -2 or -3 DRS 2b, with his positive base running, you're looking at the profile of a 2.5 fWAR player. Even if he's streaky, that's going to be a valuable 5 years of a 2b before he hits FA. That's not to say this is exactly what he is, just that if you're a Morel-fan, that's probably what you'd see. I can't offer any personal opinions on his defense; all we have are his MiLB scouting reports (which are always a bit shaky at best) and some basic observations from his savant data. Nor is that to say I'd stop from trading him for Soto; quite the opposite (just so you don't think I'm disagreeing with you). Only that I can see where some teams are high on him. I can also see from a Cub perspective, if you don't think he's a capable 3b, why he might be a bit "blocked" at his best position and you would feel like maybe moving him would make sense.
  6. Yeah, I'm a big Bryan Smith fan.
  7. The plyer you trade (Christopher Morel) would be immediately replaced with his successor (Juan Soto) while also retaining the vast majority of your prospect capital (where you'd ideally be looking to trade from). Pete Alonso would likely sacrifice more from the prospect capital (assuming the Cubs aren't trading a player like Morel in this deal) leaving less to trade from in a subsequent trade. The addition of Christopher Morel saves prospect capital for a second trade. At the same time, Juan Soto roughly has been worth the same amount of fWAR as Alonso+Morel has been in the past. This is my reasoning. Cuzi, I'm not looking to change your mind on a topic I don't feel has an "answer". You asked my opinion on whether or not the best version of the Cubs in 2024 has Juan Soto on it. In my opinion, that answer is yes. That question has so many variables, and variables we have no idea if we're even on agreement on (like, how much does my "best version" get to spend?). I took the question in a very loose, and hypothetical way, as if to mean "in your best case scenario in the offseason, is Juan Soto on the Cubs?" Maybe you meant it a different way. Or maybe your "best" version of the Cubs has different parameters than mine. But that's my answer in the way I have understood the question.
  8. Yes, I understand your argument. My argument is that the best version of the 2024 Cubs includes the best realistic player the Cubs can acquire. Pete Alonso and Christopher Morel may offer more wiggle room, but I've got the better player. Historically, Soto averages somewhere between 4-5.5 fWAR with peaks at 7 per year. Alonso between 3-4 with peaks at mid-4s. The difference between values is around what Morel was worth last year. Pete Alonso is not free, and will also be required to be traded for, though at a lower cost. I expect the cost difference between whatever else is needed to push over the Soto trade over the line with Morel headlining will be less than the total cost of Alonso. So option 1 retains more trade value to make a 2nd splash trade. I think you can work within that space with a lot of ability to continue to fill out the team. I don't think Pete Alonso is a bad plan; so please don't get that twisted. I think you can lay out a successful offseason using Pete Alonso as the traded player, and one which would result in a good 2024 season for the Cubs on paper. But I'll remain in the camp that the best version of the Chicago Cubs in 2024 has Juan Soto apart of it.
  9. The best version of the Chicago Cubs in 2024, IMO, includes Juan Soto. Yes. I'm not convinced Jose Ramirez is realistically available, and think Juan Soto is better than Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger...etc. Acquiring Juan Soto for someone like Morel + not-top-9 prospects would allow for a lot of wiggle room elsewhere via trade. The only other player I think who could be better is Ohtani, but I'm not convinced he's a realistic target. We'll have to see there. He should be a target, but coming from Jesse Rogers, the Cubs big acquisitions, according to him, are likely via trade.
  10. I don't think the Cubs will pull a "stunt" as I cannot imagine Jed Hoyer would just give away Christopher Morel to sell more tickets for Tom Ricketts. I also don't think the rumors are stunts, there's too much smoke for me to think the Cubs don't have some legitimate interest outside of "just rile the fans up for a hot minute". Not saying I think it's going down the way the rumors may suggest, just that I think this is some level past "make fans happy, leak some Soto stuff". I do have questions about their ability to identify useful MLB helpers and upgrades (just about every "raise the floor" player tanked last year and while they've been good at BP arm acquisitions, they've kind of failed at every reclamation project that wasn't Bellinger on the offensive side), questions about Tom Ricketts ability and willingness to spend, etc. But I think the Cubs using Morel to trade for a stunt feels like doomsday fan conspiracy stuff. If the Cubs wanted to pull stunts, they'd bring back old fan favorites or stuff like that, and this just doesn't fit that. Hoyer, if anything, has been conversative when it comes to trades. Giving up 5 years of a useful player just to sell some tickets for the owner feels out of his wheelhouse. Because of that, I'm not worried about an actual stunt here. I do believe there's some legitimacy and earnestness here. Between Alonso and Soto, you could make an argument for Alonso and spreading out the $10m, but I'm a little hesitant to worry much about $10m extra. On the free market, that's little over an extra win purchasing power and I'm not sure that's worth the difference between Alonso and Soto (which historically has been 2-3 fWAR or so). In the end, I'm still hoping for Juan Soto over Pete Alonso. I think both are about as likely to extend as the other (both are Scott Boras) once a trade happens, but I'm more confident in the Cubs paying for Juan Soto than Pete Alonso, as well based on his age. And I like that the idea of Soto would allow the Cubs to still make a 2nd trade with prospect capital (though how likely that is comes down to concerns about Hoyer's aggressivity. I'd feel better about him being aggressive if he made a trade for Juan Soto, so it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, too). Not to say I can't see where a Pete Alonso argument makes sense, just my feelings and opinions on it.
  11. Not every move needs to be a min-max situation, and we have to accept that efficiency, while great, cannot always be achieved at it's highest level. The reality of efficiency is that it's way easier to achieve on low-cost acquisitions, and it's next to impossible to achieve when it comes to elite talent. Why? There's just so many cheap options to snatch up easily, and so very few elite talents. It creates a supply-and-demand market that creates inefficient outcome; either via trade or by FA signing. I don't disagree, I hated the Mancini, the Barnhart and the Smyly deals last year. I still do; I think they were significantly bad bets at "raising" the floor with players who statistically had red flags abound. I also don't think they have much to do with Juan Soto. Christopher Morel may represent an "inefficient" trade at the end, but not so ridiculous that it's not worth the cost of entry. Unless he's going to be a 3b, he's likely to continue to return around 1.5-2.0 fWAR or so value at DH unless he takes a big step forward offensively. So that's, what, 10 fWAR over 5 years? Juan Soto should return 5 of that in one. I'd actually say the two are very equal to each other, actually, when we consider the spread. For example, 5 fWAR in one season is much better than 2.5 fWAR over 2 years. @Bertzdid a really good job highlighting, as well, just how much better offensively Juan Soto is than Christopher Morel. They're magnitudes apart. Just because the Cubs trade Morel for Soto (and likely some extra prospect) doesn't mean that they can't/won't continue to upgrade or still won't trade those same prospects for other players. It doesn't mean on Opening Day Morel would have still been the "third" best hitter on the Cubs. None of these things are mutually exclusive. If you can get Juan Soto for a (mostly) headlined Christopher Morel package, you should probably do it unless you're truly a believer of Christopher Morel being successful at 3b.
  12. Oh I didn't think you meant it that way! Just was expanding on it. You're right, they do have a bit of a type early, and they have one later. A good observation.
  13. I think there are some things we can see in common, with that said, for a third-round-college type, that's not a bad profile. College players with above average and weighty tools in the 3rd round are either limited (for example, a plus-power grade in third usually comes with a negative hit tool, or perhaps DH level defensive concerns) or jack-of-all-trade types. The Cubs seem to be excited to pick the hitting-forward college players in rounds 11-20 (Murray, McGeary, Bowser, Kalmer) and are having early success with that pattern. I'll admit, I wasn't the biggest Josh Rivera fan, but I can see what the Cubs like. There did seem some real step forwards for Rivera in the SEC. If you get anything out of Rivera as a pro, that's a win for a 3rd rounder.
  14. Entering 2023, many didn't have Rivera pegged as a third-round selection. After a strong year with the Florida Gators, how does Rivera fit into the Cubs' long-term plans? Image courtesy of © Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Headed into the 2023 draft cycle, Josh Rivera, an infielder with the Florida Gators, wasn't on anyone's draft board as a possible top-100 selection. A 22-year-old junior this season, Rivera had posted fine, albeit unimpressive, lines over the course of two full SEC campaigns already. Since his freshman year, Rivera had posted a .704 OPS as a freshman (redshirt) in 2021 in a more limited role and a .780 OPS as a full-time sophomore (redshirt). From his freshman to his sophomore year, improvement was seen, though not in a big enough way for people to expect the type of 2023 season Rivera would have. This year was a breakout season in almost every way for the Gator. Rivera managed to lower his strikeouts for a second full season in a row and increase his walk total to the point where Rivera walked more than he struck out. The biggest change was his power output. In 2022, Rivera hit nine home runs compared to the whopping 19 he would power out in 2023. Not only did he make more contact, the quality of contact was better, and this is seen in a steep rise in BABIP. While we often see BABIP as a "luck" category, when assessing young players who may be "too good" for their levels, a high BABIP can signal being on a higher plane physically and talent-wise, so seeing Rivera improve is a good thing. All of this resulted in a third-round selection from the Cubs. Since jumping to the professional ranks, Rivera has had a good amount of success in limited action. He went straight from the Complex League to the Cubs High-A affiliate, the South Bend Cubs. While his initial start with the South Bend Cubs started slowly, he began hitting his stride over the last few weeks. In his final 52 PAs, Rivera posted a .346 batting average and a 173 wRC+. He hit both his home runs during that stretch and six of his eight doubles. While it's a small sample size, he ended the season on a high note. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Josh Rivera will probably go right back where his 2023 ended, with the South Bend Cubs. Having just over 100 PAs there, and only 50+ of them any good, he'll probably spend April to June in South Bend unless he absolutely crushes it and forces an early June bump. Rivera just turned 23 years ago as of the writing of this article, so age-wise, he'll be a smidge older than you'd want out of a South Bend Cub, but he'll hopefully move quickly. One of the questions with Rivera is where he'll end up defensively. He's not a small guy, as he's already listed at 6'2", 215 lbs. I don't see the body of a shortstop in Rivera long-term, and he's probably more of a third baseman down the road. That's going to put more pressure on the bat. Swing-wise, I would like to know if some work will have to be done down the road to shorten the hand path. He tends to have some extra hand movement (from down to up) that can be cut out. There seems to be a solid launch angle approach, so hitting the ball into the air shouldn't be much of an issue. As a ceiling, Rivera has MLB upside. I don't think we'll see a star-turn, but he might not need that. For Rivera, I see a "jack of all trades, master of none" type of build currently. Someone who has a bunch of grades that sit in the 45-50 range, but that's not a particularly "bad" thing, especially if you're familiar with the second half of the old saying (..."better to be than a master of one"). He could offer 2.5 fWAR upside as a starting 3B, or maybe he'll be more of a rotational bench player capable of filling in a few places. That's good organizational depth; players like Rivera are great glue types. For his ETA, an aggressive 2024 would put him on a path to see action in late 2025, but maybe more of an early 2026 type of prospect. View full article
  15. 2023 Season Review Headed into the 2023 draft cycle, Josh Rivera, an infielder with the Florida Gators, wasn't on anyone's draft board as a possible top-100 selection. A 22-year-old junior this season, Rivera had posted fine, albeit unimpressive, lines over the course of two full SEC campaigns already. Since his freshman year, Rivera had posted a .704 OPS as a freshman (redshirt) in 2021 in a more limited role and a .780 OPS as a full-time sophomore (redshirt). From his freshman to his sophomore year, improvement was seen, though not in a big enough way for people to expect the type of 2023 season Rivera would have. This year was a breakout season in almost every way for the Gator. Rivera managed to lower his strikeouts for a second full season in a row and increase his walk total to the point where Rivera walked more than he struck out. The biggest change was his power output. In 2022, Rivera hit nine home runs compared to the whopping 19 he would power out in 2023. Not only did he make more contact, the quality of contact was better, and this is seen in a steep rise in BABIP. While we often see BABIP as a "luck" category, when assessing young players who may be "too good" for their levels, a high BABIP can signal being on a higher plane physically and talent-wise, so seeing Rivera improve is a good thing. All of this resulted in a third-round selection from the Cubs. Since jumping to the professional ranks, Rivera has had a good amount of success in limited action. He went straight from the Complex League to the Cubs High-A affiliate, the South Bend Cubs. While his initial start with the South Bend Cubs started slowly, he began hitting his stride over the last few weeks. In his final 52 PAs, Rivera posted a .346 batting average and a 173 wRC+. He hit both his home runs during that stretch and six of his eight doubles. While it's a small sample size, he ended the season on a high note. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Josh Rivera will probably go right back where his 2023 ended, with the South Bend Cubs. Having just over 100 PAs there, and only 50+ of them any good, he'll probably spend April to June in South Bend unless he absolutely crushes it and forces an early June bump. Rivera just turned 23 years ago as of the writing of this article, so age-wise, he'll be a smidge older than you'd want out of a South Bend Cub, but he'll hopefully move quickly. One of the questions with Rivera is where he'll end up defensively. He's not a small guy, as he's already listed at 6'2", 215 lbs. I don't see the body of a shortstop in Rivera long-term, and he's probably more of a third baseman down the road. That's going to put more pressure on the bat. Swing-wise, I would like to know if some work will have to be done down the road to shorten the hand path. He tends to have some extra hand movement (from down to up) that can be cut out. There seems to be a solid launch angle approach, so hitting the ball into the air shouldn't be much of an issue. As a ceiling, Rivera has MLB upside. I don't think we'll see a star-turn, but he might not need that. For Rivera, I see a "jack of all trades, master of none" type of build currently. Someone who has a bunch of grades that sit in the 45-50 range, but that's not a particularly "bad" thing, especially if you're familiar with the second half of the old saying (..."better to be than a master of one"). He could offer 2.5 fWAR upside as a starting 3B, or maybe he'll be more of a rotational bench player capable of filling in a few places. That's good organizational depth; players like Rivera are great glue types. For his ETA, an aggressive 2024 would put him on a path to see action in late 2025, but maybe more of an early 2026 type of prospect.
  16. Cool video of Triantos pulling a Baez on a ball in the dirt from the AFL:
  17. I'm a "process over results" kind of guy when it comes to MiLB players, myself. I think it's really easy to look at the numbers and go "ah horsefeathers me running" and write kids off, or say they had a bad season. There are times when teams care little about the raw results and more about the things they're tinkering on, working on, and want to see that come out more. My hope, especially in the 2nd half, is that this is the case, that the Cubs are happy with progress we can't see in his wRC+, or his batting average or whatever. That they challenged him to work counts differently, do things that may be a bit "awkward" for him and it started to pay off in small ways. There's so many tools with Hernandez. There's so many (unfair, probably) expectations. I really hope his approach change in the 2nd half is a sign that he's finally seeing things better, the game is slowing down.
  18. 2023 Season Review Cristian Hernandez was once considered to be a massive international free-agent coup by the Cubs. Despite coming a bit later than anticipated, Hernandez was given a $3m bonus in the winter of 2021. Coming with massive expectations, Hernandez has struggled to hit those lofty comparisons. In my opinion, Hernandez is a great example of why comparisons for 15-year-old kids are so very unfair. How impossible is it for anyone to become the next A-Rod, let alone someone who would be a freshman in high school? Looking at the raw numbers for Hernandez paints a pretty ugly picture of the youngster's time in Myrtle Beach. Posting a wRC+ of 77, a K% over 27%, and hitting just four home runs, it's easy to be highly discouraged by Hernandez. Hernandez is a tall, toolsy, lanky shortstop, and the power was something people touted as plus. Despite this, he's only managed seven home runs outside of the Arizona Complex league in 600 PAs. What seems to be an issue for Hernandez is his barrel control because his swing is quite visually appealing: That goes to show where the limitations are. In the video above, Josh Norris points to how good of a swing Hernandez looks to have, yet the ball doesn't get out. Can he control his lanky body to create the consistent barrel action needed for power? Despite increased contact numbers, posting declining ISO numbers suggests this is a legitimate possibility. There also was a change in approach for Hernandez mid-season. Hernandez's last home run in 2023 came on July 19th. From July 20th through the remainder of the season, his K% dipped to 24% (almost 4% lower than his season average), and his BB% jumped above 10% despite the lack of home runs. He had nine extra-base hits (eight doubles and a triple) over that span, which was a better rate of extra-base hits than the first two-thirds of the year, suggesting that there might be more power coming. There are still issues with things, so it's not all peaches and cream, as he only had an 86 wRC+, coupled with a > .230 batting average. The wRC+ of 86 is better than his season's line of 77, but it's hard to be excited by that, regardless. Another caveat we can add to the argument is that Myrtle Beach is a really hard place to hit. Myrtle Beach isn't the best place for power numbers and tends to be a pitcher's league in total. It's not enough to answer the question of "Where is the power?" but it might be a part of the question. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's hard to tell if the Cubs will promote Hernandez to A+ South Bend or keep him in Myrtle Beach. On merit, he belongs in Myrtle Beach, but on the upside, an argument for being in South Bend is fair. His work over the offseason and the winter will play a large role for the soon-to-be-20-year-old. The Chicago Cubs have been more aggressive in promoting bats than they have on pitchers, so my guess is South Bend will be his home with the possibility of a developmental list return to the Complex League if it doesn't start well. This would also be a similar plan the team took with former IFA-bonus-baby Reginald Preciado. Getting Hernandez outside of Myrtle Beach into South Bend may also help. We shouldn't overstate the downside, he's not a sunk prospect. He's tall, lanky, and the kind of player who could legitimately break out. While it's unfair to compare him to Alex Rodriguez, there's a reason people saw that, and the upside still is there. With an approach change signaled in his last 150 PAs, it could help him find the barrel control he has been missing. Much of this could be growing into his body, maturing, and adding core strength. Hernandez doesn't deserve to be a top-5 prospect in a deep Cub system and may not be the position's future, but he doesn't deserve to be written off, either. All seasons are important, but 2024 feels very important for Hernandez. We're still years away from Hernandez getting on the MLB radar, so his ETA is probably hard to pinpoint, but I think 2026-2027 is around where he's aiming for at this stage.
  19. Once billed as the "next Alex Rodriguez," Hernandez struggled in 2022. Did the 2023 season treat Hernandez any better? Image courtesy of Cristian Hernandez 2023 Season Review Cristian Hernandez was once considered to be a massive international free-agent coup by the Cubs. Despite coming a bit later than anticipated, Hernandez was given a $3m bonus in the winter of 2021. Coming with massive expectations, Hernandez has struggled to hit those lofty comparisons. In my opinion, Hernandez is a great example of why comparisons for 15-year-old kids are so very unfair. How impossible is it for anyone to become the next A-Rod, let alone someone who would be a freshman in high school? Looking at the raw numbers for Hernandez paints a pretty ugly picture of the youngster's time in Myrtle Beach. Posting a wRC+ of 77, a K% over 27%, and hitting just four home runs, it's easy to be highly discouraged by Hernandez. Hernandez is a tall, toolsy, lanky shortstop, and the power was something people touted as plus. Despite this, he's only managed seven home runs outside of the Arizona Complex league in 600 PAs. What seems to be an issue for Hernandez is his barrel control because his swing is quite visually appealing: That goes to show where the limitations are. In the video above, Josh Norris points to how good of a swing Hernandez looks to have, yet the ball doesn't get out. Can he control his lanky body to create the consistent barrel action needed for power? Despite increased contact numbers, posting declining ISO numbers suggests this is a legitimate possibility. There also was a change in approach for Hernandez mid-season. Hernandez's last home run in 2023 came on July 19th. From July 20th through the remainder of the season, his K% dipped to 24% (almost 4% lower than his season average), and his BB% jumped above 10% despite the lack of home runs. He had nine extra-base hits (eight doubles and a triple) over that span, which was a better rate of extra-base hits than the first two-thirds of the year, suggesting that there might be more power coming. There are still issues with things, so it's not all peaches and cream, as he only had an 86 wRC+, coupled with a > .230 batting average. The wRC+ of 86 is better than his season's line of 77, but it's hard to be excited by that, regardless. Another caveat we can add to the argument is that Myrtle Beach is a really hard place to hit. Myrtle Beach isn't the best place for power numbers and tends to be a pitcher's league in total. It's not enough to answer the question of "Where is the power?" but it might be a part of the question. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's hard to tell if the Cubs will promote Hernandez to A+ South Bend or keep him in Myrtle Beach. On merit, he belongs in Myrtle Beach, but on the upside, an argument for being in South Bend is fair. His work over the offseason and the winter will play a large role for the soon-to-be-20-year-old. The Chicago Cubs have been more aggressive in promoting bats than they have on pitchers, so my guess is South Bend will be his home with the possibility of a developmental list return to the Complex League if it doesn't start well. This would also be a similar plan the team took with former IFA-bonus-baby Reginald Preciado. Getting Hernandez outside of Myrtle Beach into South Bend may also help. We shouldn't overstate the downside, he's not a sunk prospect. He's tall, lanky, and the kind of player who could legitimately break out. While it's unfair to compare him to Alex Rodriguez, there's a reason people saw that, and the upside still is there. With an approach change signaled in his last 150 PAs, it could help him find the barrel control he has been missing. Much of this could be growing into his body, maturing, and adding core strength. Hernandez doesn't deserve to be a top-5 prospect in a deep Cub system and may not be the position's future, but he doesn't deserve to be written off, either. All seasons are important, but 2024 feels very important for Hernandez. We're still years away from Hernandez getting on the MLB radar, so his ETA is probably hard to pinpoint, but I think 2026-2027 is around where he's aiming for at this stage. View full article
  20. Is Christopher Morel really impacting the MLB roster that much as a (career) 114 wRC+ DH? He was worth 1.4 fWAR last year in 430 PAs. That's not nothing, but the league average DH was a 106 wRC+. This comes down to "Do the Cubs thinks Christopher Morel can play 3b?". They didn't last year. Maybe he needs an offseason to convert his throwing angle, or maybe the Cubs just don't think he can. If the Cubs are going to use him as a DH, you can find slightly above average DHs' pretty readily, and 1.4 fWAR is very replaceable. That's why this math hinges on "can he play 3b?". He has no other path to playing time as of today with the Cub. So for the Cubs, the value of Christopher Morel holds different math than for the Padres if they move Kim to 3b and have Morel play 2b. Or if they believe he can be a 3b. Also, it's not as easy of math as "Candelario + SP = Soto". Soto is one player, one roster spot, one 5 fWAR player. He's a much better player than either of those, and combined, he's still better because it allows another player to bring value to the roster. He also keeps the entire rest of the really good prospects intact, assuming that it's Morel leading, and prospects from the 10-20 range that fill out the trade. You can use that saving to then trade for a cheaper player (monetarily) and not even mess with FA. And while it's not something we should be chasing, he'll recoup a 45 FV prospect in the offseason if he doesn't resign with the QO, so he's not an entire loss. We have to also remember that any trade for Juan Soto has nothing to do with an extension for Juan Soto. When we're trading with the Padres, the thing we get is one year of Juan Soto. It does not change his trade value; there will be no sign-and-trade. The trade doesn't get better or worse value if they end up extending Juan Soto, that contract is it's own value. I think it's important to separate the two concepts. The reason someone like Morel can headline a Juan Soto trade is purely because he's only 1 year of control. The Cubs would have paid Christopher Morel for Juan Soto. But that's the cost of doing business. And at this stage, it's time for the Cubs to start acquiring elite players if the cost isn't insanely prohibitive. I like Christopher Morel, and I think he's got the outlook of a pretty good MLB player. I don't think it's a low cost. I also don't think it's a cost that would prohibit me from getting one of the absolute best hitters in baseball, even if there's risk it's only for one year.
  21. I think it's important to remember that any trade centering around Christopher Morel for Juan Soto would almost assuredly not be in a vacuum. A trade like that, likely keeps the entire-top-9 prospects intact. At that point, we'd still be in a similar situation where we'd have plenty of prospects to pick-choose-and-move for a 2nd splash move (and for perhaps a more controllable player). I'd be very much in favor of still using the prospect capital retained to make that 2nd trade. The offseason, if they go the Juan Soto route, can't be "Juan Soto and a BP arm" and I'd hope the Cubs saw it the same way (I would assume they would in the theory they traded for a player with only one guaranteed year). It's why I remain very strongly on the side of being totally cool with a Morel for Soto trade. That isn't to discount Morel, I think Morel is a good player, but unless the Cubs are going to have a change of heart when it comes to Morel at 3b, he's pretty blocked. Swapping him for Soto, while also allowing for a 2nd prospect trade would be a really good way to get creative this offseason in changing our players around. I agree, if the Cubs hope is "well, IDK, just trade for a year of Juan Soto and that's basically it", that it's probably better to find a better use for Christopher Morel. This is all under the assumption that the team has slightly higher aims than that.
  22. On one hand, I'm glad the Cubs are doing their due-diligence, that's a good thing. On the other hand, the last thing the rotation needs currently is another low-velocity, maybe-his-secondaries-carry-him BORP-type. He sounds like an option the Cubs should look at if they needed to depth to the bottom. Maybe there's a world where they need to do that this offseason (declining Hendricks option, a trade of Assad/Wicks...etc). But I'd like the Cubs to shoot higher for rotational help.
  23. I wonder how much of this is just Levine's opinion, or if it's wrapped up in his previous comments that the Padres are high on Morel. Is this based on some background noise/knowledge or just Levine's personal beliefs?
  24. Yeah, I think Morel has value for sure (why I think Soto for Morel, or at least those bones makes sense). I'd not be happy to lose Morel, but a Morel-centered-trade is probably in my "best case scenario", as well, when it comes to Juan Soto. I think it likely preserves the vast majority, if not the entirety of the Cubs-top-8-or-9 prospects while upgrading the MLB roster in the interim. I'd have to think the Cubs wouldn't trade Morel-for-Soto without a strong inkling of what it'd take to extend Soto and a strong desire to meet that level. And keeping intact the prospect capital isn't because I'm interested in prospect hording, but instead, I'd also look to make a second splash trade (I'd assume the $30m addition of Soto would take a strong chunk of money available). Whether a SP or another bat, it'd kind of depend on what would happen with Stroman/Hendricks, so I don't have names but that'd be how I'd feel. Whether or not the Cubs would...well...that's on them!
  25. I think a lot of Morel's importance with a Soto trade comes down to where the Cubs see Christopher's home. A trade for Soto likely closes off DH for Morel (as Happ, Suzuki and Soto would probably have to share COF and DH). As of yet, the team has been pretty hesitant to push for him to play at 3b. Obviously the offseason can change this equation, but internally it's hard to tell what they think. If they aren't fans of Morel as a 3b, there might not be a home for both Soto and Morel with the team and I'd guess the Cubs would likely at that point prefer a Morel headline versus a Wicks/Brown/Canario/whatever.
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