Jason Ross

Two weeks ago saw the South Bend Cubs season come to an end. Last week, it was Myrtle Beach who's season came to a halt. With only two teams left playing, Iowa finishing up the regular season and Tennessee in the playoffs, did two become one? Or are there two teams still playing into this week? Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs, AAA (3-3) Sadly, two did become one, with Iowa missing out on the AAA playoffs, ending their 2023 season. The week started strong, winning three more games, until they hit a speed bump and dropped the final three. It's hard to blame Iowa for the late-season struggles, as injuries to Ben Brown and call-ups of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario, Luke Little, and Jordan Wicks left the team pretty shorthanded. That said, it's a good problem, and I hope this will be a recurring problem. Matt Mervis: 143 wRC+, 21.7% K%, 21.7 BB%, 2 HR, 1 2B: Mervis finished the season on a high note in Iowa. After his demotion, all Mervis did was hit, putting up a 131 wRC+ over the final three-plus months of the season. Mervis has clearly shown that he's too good for AAA and deserves to be on an MLB roster to show if he can stick at that level or if he's a "AAAA" player. Whether or not that MLB chance will come with Chicago in 2024 has yet to be determined. For his sake, I hope he can take his AAA success and find MLB success. Ben Brown: 1.2 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 5 R, 5 ER: Yeesh. Control issues abound for Ben Brown, who has not looked comfortable since returning from a lat injury. Rust? Residual pain/discomfort from the injury? Just a bad few games? Hard to tell. A good offseason, rest, some tweaking, and hopefully, Ben Brown returns next season in form. A healthy Ben Brown, and one who was controlling his pitches, would have been a nice BP addition to the Cubs in 2023, but hopefully, he can make an impact in 2024. Just remember that a few poor outings at the end of the season don't erase all of the good. Brennen Davis: 34 wRC+, 11.8% K%, 5.9% BB%: Early season Brennen Davis returned this week, making a lot of contact, almost all of it being weak. Is this better than K-happy Davis? I can't tell because it's just a different side of the same coin: that of an unproductive hitter. That's two lost seasons in a row for Davis. He's not completely gone as a prospect, but this offseason will be very important for him, and he must put in some heavy work. There must be a middle ground between Brennen Davis, the K-machine who displays plus power, and Brennen Davis, the contact machine with zero ability to hit the ball hard, right? Caleb Kilian: 5.1 IP, 8 K, 1 BB, 6 R, 5 ER: I'm just at a loss with Kilian right now. The K's are really good, and it's been nice to see the velocity back to what it was at the start of 2022, but despite the strikeouts, he gave up a lot of contact. This is the third time in his last six outings that he got hammered when he came into the zone. Is a permanent switch to the bullpen in the cards? I've never been a big believer in his pitch mix in the BP, but this season has been pretty poor, up and down, for Kilian. I still think some value can be had out of him, but I don't know what it is. Tennessee Smokies, AA - Moving on to the Championship In stark contrast to the Iowa Cubs, the Tennessee Smokies have only received helpful reinforcements, and the results show. Tennessee was able to dispatch the Chattanooga lookouts in their best-of-three series and is now just a single win away from being crowned league champions. However, they'll have to do so on the road, playing Pensacola on Tuesday and Wednesday. Game 1 vs. Chattanooga: Win, 3-1: Surprise, surprise, but Cade Horton took the mound for the Smokies in their most important game of the season, and it should be no surprise that Horton was dominant. Horton went five, striking out seven and giving up nary a run. The Smokies got on the board in the third inning with three runs, provided by a BJ Murray single, an Owen Caissie double, and a Hayden McGeary fielder's choice, and they never looked back. The only blemish was a 6th inning from Zac Leigh (though the blame should be placed on the feet of Porter Hodge, who only got one out, hitting a batter and giving up two other singles). Leigh battled, struck out the next hitter, and finished with a popout to strand the bases loaded. Riley Martin and Hunter Bigge closed the affair, and Tennessee took game 1. Game 2 vs Chattanooga: Win, 5-1: Walker Powell took the mound and, much like Cade Horton the night before, was given an early multiple-run-lead, this time, from a three-run shot off of Kevin Alcantara (his only hit of the night). Powell gave up a run in the bottom of the second but ended the night with six strikeouts. The bullpen took over, with Frankie Scalzo Jr., Riley Martin, and Hunter Bigge finishing the job. With the win, the Smokies moved onto the Championship series against Pensacola with relative ease. Game 1 vs. Pensacola: Win, 8-4: Today was more about the bats than the previous wins, but much like the first two playoff games, the Smokies got off to a smoldering start. By the end of the third, the Smokies were up 7-1 behind RBI knocks from BJ Murray, Hayden McGeary, Ezequiel Pagan, and Kevin Alcantara. Pablo Aliendo also took a bases-loaded hit by pitch, and the Smokies never looked back. Brandon Birdsell threw five strong, striking out five and surrendering only one. The usual suspects of Porter Hodge, Frankie Scalzo Jr., Riley Martin, and Hunter Bigge closed out the game, though they did give up a few runs on an HR given up by Bigge. One more win and the Smokies wrap up their seasons as Champions of the Southern League. View full article

Well, the Cubs are 17th probably due to how much time Patrick Wisdom has played there. Patrick Wisdom has been a -5 DRS at 3b. A better example for what you're suggesting about arm, is to look at Nick Madrigal at 3b, and Madrigal alone. Nick Madrigal has an arm in the 46%. This represents a significant upgrade over his time at 2b. Whether this is mechanical, physical, added strength, just being healthy, I cannot speak to it, but whatever the reason, the Cubs have shown an ability to drag extra value via arm out of Madrigal in some way. Despite having a >50% arm rating, in 560 innings, Madrigal has put up a +7 DRS. This is why I think it's unfair to show the Cubs are 17th in whatever you want; Patrick Wisdom is really bad there and he drags things down. It's not a large enough sample size defensively for me to say "Nick Madrigal is a gold-glove type at 3b" but it's enough to suggest that he's actually...pretty decent over there despite the less than stellar arm. In a similar vein, the Cubs extracted excellent defensive value from Nico Hoerner at SS for a season, a position I also did not believe he had the arm for. There's pattern for success. What does this mean for Shaw? He's a highly athletic player who's arm and range just won't be good enough at SS, but very well could find himself in the Nick Madrigal/Nico Hoerner camp of "The Cubs were able to extract value out of the arm". I expect the Cubs will prioritize Shaw over Murray as well, at 3b. Murray can play 1b, where as the other positions Shaw can play (2b, OF) are all solved currently, and probably long term. Maybe an injury will change the math there in 2024, but Shaw at 3b and Murray as a 1b/DH is probably your best bet to give both routes to the MLB next season. So far, in AA, they don't seem to have done that, but I think some of that is the makeup of the roster. They don't have a SS or a 2b that's so good they need to play, and the Cubs already have McGeary at 1b there. When push comes to shove, my guess is that Shaw will be the chosen 3b over Murray as a "path to the MLB" is concerned. We'll see, it's a guess. None of this is a knock on Murray as a prospect, but just attempting to guess where the Cubs will go with that.

Sadly, South Bend's season has been over for a while, but Iowa, Tennessee, and Myrtle Beach entered the week with things to play for. How'd Myrtle Beaches' first playoff series go? Tennessee saw a handful of reinforcements make their way to them; how did each of them do? Find out this week in our recap! Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Iowa Cubs, AAA (5-1) It's good to see Iowa have a great week for once. Not only did Pete Crow-Armstrong get his much-anticipated promotion, Iowa rattled off five straight wins. The Cubs had been struggling recently, but a home set against St. Paul seemed to be the cure. Iowa has one last regular season series on the road. 🔥Matt Mervis: 20% K%, 4% BB%, 1 HR, 4 2b: Another week for Mervis on the hot list. He was better than others, as his K% wasn't touching 30% like it had been. He also hit his 20th home run of the AAA season, hitting a monster shot to left-center field. 🔥Jeremiah Estrada: 2 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Estrada is working his way back from injury. A reliever with some of the highest-end stuff in the system pre-season, Estrada has battled injury throughout the season. There's still hope he can rediscover the fun velocity/slider combination that made him a possible high-leverage reliever, but he'll be competing with many young BP arms next season. Don't entirely count him out. 🔥Luis Vazquez: 103 wRC+, 25% K%, 10 BB%: 1 2b: Vazquez hit .313, so while there wasn't a lot of power production, I'm giving him the fire emoji. I wonder what will happen with Vazquez entering next season. He's got enough skill to make an MLB roster, and his glove gives him a nice floor. A Jose Iglesias type of journeyman bat-to-ball skill with a plus glove can't be ruled out. But does he get a chance in Chicago? I could see him being moved in a trade this offseason for a team with an opening up the middle as a cheap, effective 3rd piece in a trade. 🥶Brennen Davis: 16 wRC+, 31.6% K%, 10.5% BB%: Man, it's been hard to watch Davis this year. He's either making a ton of weak contact or swinging and missing. Even in a strong week for Iowa, Davis doesn't look right. I'm not entirely abandoning ship. He's had no consistent baseball for years at this point, but he's waiving a lot of really major red flags on his own. Maybe a strong week, a strong winter, and we'll see old Davis. Or maybe there's no more old-Davis in there anymore. Tennessee Smokes, AA (5-1) Tennessee got a lot of help this week, with players like Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and James Triantos all added to an excellent team. The results are evident. The Smokies took 5 of 6, and each of the aforementioned players played a role in their success. Tennessee's playoffs begin this week against the Chattanooga Lookouts in a best-of-three-set. 🔥James Triantos: 119 wrC+, 15.4% K%, 7.7BB%, 1 2B: That's how you make yourself noticed in AA. James Triantos showed zero issues in his first three games in handling AA pitching, making a lot of contact, and overall, being the same Triantos we've known. I'm glad to see him hit the ground running, and hopefully, 2024 will continue that upward trend. 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 130 wRC+, 33.3% K%, 14.3% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2b: It's probably going to be a bit rocky with the strikeouts for a bit for Kevin Alcantara, but that's not crazy considering his jump. He's a long-levered hitter, and as he moves up, pitchers will attack up more and more with velocity. The good news is he's hitting for power and taking walks, so that we can accept the strikeouts for now. There's a shot Alcantara could be on pace to make his MLB debut next year if things progress quickly; however, it is probably more likely he won't be up until 2025. 🔥B.J. Murray : 215 wRC+, 10% K%, 20% BB%, 1 HR, 5 2b: A pretty ho-hum week for BJ Murray, with a .375 batting average, five XBH, doubling his walk total from his strikeout total. What a season Murray has had, and he's remaining a standout even after the Cubs brought up a handful of interesting prospects throughout the year. 🥶Kohl Franklin: 4IP 7 K, 0 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: This is such an odd line for Kohl Franklin. Normally, Kohl Franklin blowups are walk-related, but Kohl Franklin struck out seven in four innings while walking none. Instead, Franklin got pounded in the zone, giving up four extra-base hits and two home runs. It's good not to walk people, but forcing meatballs into the zone doesn't work out. Myrtle Beach, Low-A (1-2) Myrtle Beach had a short week as their playoffs began (sadly ended) this week. Nothing is to take away from their excellent season. Many great prospects started in Myrtle Beach, only to end up in South Bend or even higher. 2023 draft pick Zyhir Hope also made his professional debut above Arizona this week. With the system's depth, I'm excited about the fun players coming through. 👎Game 1: Loss, 2-1: Game 1 was a close affair, started by Jackson Ferris. Sadly, Ferris (4.2 IP, 3 K, 3 BB, 2 ER) didn't have his sharpest stuff in his most important turn in the rotation, and the Pelicans got down early. None of the Pelicans star players had big games today. Brian Kalmer, Jonathon Long, Jefferson Rojas, and Cristian Hernandez were all held hitless, with the only run coming from a Brendon Bateman single. Credit goes to the Pelicans bullpen, led by Koen Moreno, who kept the score close. 👍Game 2: Win, 3-0: Game 2 was much better for Myrtle Beach, who could stabilize themselves behind standout Drew Gray. Gray struck out six while walking three, and Pedro Ramirez hit a solo home run in the bottom of the fourth. From there, Jefferson Rojas added two singles, while Brian Kalmer and Jonathon Long both hit doubles, and the bullpen was able to lock things down. Kevin Valdez finished with four innings on the mound, striking out a whopping nine hitters. 👎Game 3: Loss, 18-4: Well, that sucks. At home, and staked to an early two-run lead compliments from an RBI single off the bad of Pedro Ramirez and a double play from Brian Kalmer, starting pitcher Marino Santy couldn't hold the lead. Santy gave up seven runs while walking three in just two innings. His defense didn't help him much, but Santy was poor overall. By then, the wheels had fallen off the wagon, and the game was simply never in doubt. View full article

I'll handicap Matt Shaw as the most likely. I say this as a pretty strong Caissie supporter (among the largest), but I think, as we stand today organizationally, Shaw is probably going to be the quickest riser. I think Caissie will struggle for a few months in Iowa, much like he has both in South Bend, and Tennessee before getting it together around the June/July mark. The Cubs have a few others who an fill in during injury at COF and DH, so I'm not sure he'll have a clear path, at least in 2024, even with an injury. However, 3b doesn't seem to have a real in-house option, and while they certainly can fulfill that position outside of the organization pre-2024, today they still have a pretty clear path. Add in Matt Shaw's ability to get bat to baseball, and his easy power, and he's got a lot of the markers of someone who could be in Iowa come May 15th next year and at that point, would be "next up" at 3b if someone falters or someone gets hurt. BJ Murray is the only other in house prospect at 3b, and the reports on the defense aren't entirely promising. Considering the Cubs affinity for strong defenders he might not be a strong consideration there.

I refuse to believe Pfaadt is a real name.

Different body types, but Hope reminds me a bit of Brennen Davis in some ways. Highly athletic HS OF'er, has power, more toolsy than finished on draft day, but also moving faster than people thought. They'll assuredly prove to be different types of players in the long run, but just an observation.

On one hand, I'm excited. That's exciting. On the other hand, I live in the Eastern time zone, this game is in the Mountain time zone, and I have to work tomorrow. I request hardship and need the MLB to move the start time up at least an hour.

I'm in the school of being slow with prospect ranking unless there's just a major change in something. I'll say that I think it was silly to drop Alcantara based off a month or two of PA's, but I'd be similarly careful of a prospect who's having a nice two months. There are times in which above-and-beyond performance, or some sort of talent jump/decline requires an introspective re-eval, but generally speaking, I like a cautious and patient approach to re-ranking. In the end, I think this all just comes down to me really hating prospect ranking the traditional #1-100 way anyways, but now isn't the time for me to go on an "old-man-yells-at-cloud" style rant, so I'll just leave it at that.

Not surprised the Cubs are interested. Good pitcher, exciting upside, right age.

I don't think it's just the rain, but the colder climate as well. But like I said, we'll see! I just wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get the MB treatment like Horton, and it won't be because the Cubs don't think he's "not ready" but just being overly careful. The Cubs love to be cautious with MiLB arms (which isn't a bad thing; Wicks is proving with the Cubs that caution in the MiLB doesn't necessarily equate to being unable to throw more, or more often).

For me, I'd categorize it as a "polish" and not a "worry". The good news is that regardless of the current K numbers, Wicks is doing two things that are incredibly important: 1. He's not walking hitters. 2. He's got a 48.5% GB% What's really great is that he's showing that command we all had known he had. I'm not convinced he's going to keep a >2.00 BB/9, but a ~2.5 BB/9 is probably on the table as a best-case-outcome. The GB% should be expected. Fangraphs did a study in 2019 looking at what metrics correlate most to MLB data, and GB% was one of the highest for pitchers. That should make sense as a pitcher's pitch mix doesn't magically change when they jump a level. Wicks, a very strong change up, a good cut fastball, and a decent curve, all of which should induce GB's. So far, he's been a GB machine, printing GBs and he's consistently shown the ability to get 45-47% ground ball rates in the MiLB. For comparison, a 47% GB% would be 13th best of any qualified SP in the MLB today. If we start to see the O-swing% turn into more K's, then I think Jordan Wicks is going to be a very good pitcher, and likely a traditional "FIP beater" profile. If some of the above changes, I'd be a bit more worried about the strikeouts, but for now, it's just a place to polish up. Even as is, Wicks is carrying himself far more than just a rookie on the mound. I think part of it might be tunneling, I think part of it is just Wicks settling in. As you stated, the o-swing% is really good right now, so he's doing something right. It could just be a sequencing thing, or just something that will round into form with a larger sample.

Yeah, he's certainly my least favorite of the fill-ins in the booth. He never shuts up.

We'll see. I think he's ready to see South Bend, but the Cubs are really cautious with their arms. Myrtle is much kinder on the weather in April than South Bend. The Cubs kept Cade Horton, a year removed from TJS in Myrtle largely for that reason in April, and Gray is sitting in a similar spot in his return from TJS. Whether or not he's in Myrtle or South Bend to start, I'm sure he'll be in South Bend by May 1st and those ~4 starts probably don't move the needle in either direction for his development. He's had a really nice year and it's good to see the post-draft hype Gray was getting heading into 2022 (and pre-TJS) was founded. He's an exciting arm to have in our system, for sure.

I wonder how much of that becomes fatigue when people rank prospects. Whether it's subconscious or not, the Cubs have had a lot of really fun prospects have some fun seasons (especially early on). Add in the draft, and it almost feels like "Well, we already have a handful of Cubs on our top-100 lists..." and someone like Alcantara gets left off.

I've watched a bunch of SB. I'll also say this; it's really hard to gauge catching defense from MiLB streams if you're sitting at home. If you're lucky they're actually showing a behind-the-pitcher POV, and even then, you're lucky if the stream quality is above "guy with an outdated iPhone and a hotspot". I'll also say it's way too soon to tell for a handful of factors: the first being that in the next few years, I expect some form of automated ball-strike calling system to make its way to the MLB (probably similar to the MiLB "challenge" system we're seeing) which should change the math on pitch framing. The second is that there seems to be a bit of a "catcher revolution" going on defensively league wide, some teams are just...better at it than others. Milwaukee has been a hotbed for basically taking horsefeathers defensive catchers and turning them into pitch framing mavens; they've done it time and time again recently. Eventually, those techniques are going to make their way out into the bigger world. We've seen guys with awkward body types, like Alejandro Kirk, succeed, and I wonder how much of Ballesteros' being a good/bad catcher are people just saying "someone who looks like that can't do that". Defensive scouting of the MiLB is pretty hit and miss. Albert Almora was considered a 60-65 grade fielder and he was blow average. Javy Baez was considered to have to move off SS and he was great. With baseball savant and all of the amazing statcast data we get, MLB defensive metrics are jumping leaps and bounds. Catching has always been behind even the other advanced defensive metrics as a position (UZR, DRS. etc) so I wonder if that's going to change things as well. Long way to go on Big Mo. I'm really excited overall, though. Turn some of those doubles into home runs as he adds strength and experience, and he may hit so well that anything he does behind the plate is just a bonus.

horsefeathers you Cuas. Why has he been allowed to throw 30 pitches?

Well..this has been less than optimal. Please get out of here with the lead.

Sut drives me insane.

Happy to be wrong. Totally agree, PCA in the defense is better. He was pretty nonchalant about grabbing a glove but looking back they did the mid-inning salute so thats probably what I read as nonchalant. He knew he had time

Just by the way he was acting in the dugout, it didn't seem like.he was coming back out. Tauchman PH for Wisdom, so I bet Candy takes 1b and PCA takes the rest of the night off.

That Jordan Wicks guy is a bulldog. Glad to see him succeed.

In a perfect world you'd like a few more swings and misses. But it's a rookie, on the road at Coors and he's starting to get more and more ground balls. All in all, a good 5 innings from Wicks yet again.

That's exciting.