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Jason Ross
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2023 Season Review As the 2022 season came to a close, few prospects had more end-of-the-season helium than Alexander Canario. Showing improved plate discipline and contact ability, not only did many believe Canario was on the path to an early season 2023 call-up, but others believed his 2022 was a key cog in how the Cubs handled their entire offseason. Instead, in late October, as the outfielder was legging out a ground ball in the Dominican Winter League, he slipped on the bag, fracturing his ankle and injuring his shoulder. Many were concerned his entire 2023 was over. Despite the injury, Canario worked hard over the offseason rehabbing and got back on the field by mid-June. Short rehab stints in the Arizona Complex League and South Bend came with mixed results, but they didn't stop him from finally returning to Iowa on July 14th. In somewhat of a mixed-bag season in Iowa, the electric hitter showed what makes him so much fun and why people hesitate about his bright future. One fear people had was that the shoulder injury would significantly sap the power out of his bat for the season while he rebuilt strength. The good news is that even though it wasn't immediately shown, this concern would be alleviated by the end of his time in Iowa. In just 36 games, Canario hit eight home runs and 12 doubles, punctuated by a 14-game span that saw him to the bulk of his work, whacking 13 of these extra-base hits alone (six home runs and seven doubles) during that period alone. It took a bit, but the power was back, and Canario was teeing off on Triple-A pitching. This power output came with some questions. In 2022, Canario struck out around 19% of the time, a massive improvement over the near 30% rates he had been hovering at during his lower-level stints. In 2023, the strikeouts returned, as he posted a 28% strikeout rate in Iowa. Even during his 14-game span, which saw those 13 extra-base hits, Canario still struck out 30% of the time. Between August 4th and August 30th (his last game in Iowa), Alexander struck out in every game he played. Hitters who strike out over 30% of the time have a much harder path to success, so seeing Canario revert to being a higher strikeout hitter was problematic. Something that looked like it had been solved the year prior was rearing its ugly head again. Regardless of the strikeouts, the Cubs promoted the outfielder to the MLB team at the start of September. Blocked by a red-hot Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ at the corners, and with Mike Tauchmann and Cody Bellinger playing center field, little playing time was available. In a short stint, Canario saw 17 PAs in Chicago, much like this 2023 season: a mixed bag. Hitting his first career major league home run in dramatic style (an absolute bomb of a grand slam) but striking out eight times, the good and the bad were both on display. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA As of writing this, Alexander Canario is out of options, meaning he must be on an MLB roster come Opening Day. There remains a chance that Major League Baseball will award the Cubs an extra option due to the injury suffered, which would allow the Cubs (or another team) to keep him in AAA if they wanted, but it has yet to be decided. That said, if he isn't given that option year, it makes the 2024 outlook for him in Chicago easier. In a perfect world, sitting a 23/24-year-old outfielder on the bench for much of the season isn't a comforting idea, as you'd prefer him playing somewhere. The Cubs, however, have most of the same roadblocks in place for Canario they did at the end of the 2023 campaign, though they are potentially swapping Bellinger for Pete Crow-Armstrong. DH is also murky, with Christopher Morel being the incumbent at the position and the Cubs being linked consistently with Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, who would likely slot into that space. Ultimately, a trade may make the most sense for the Cubs and Canario. It wouldn't be a trade you'd be excited to make, but if another team values him as a starting corner outfielder, then the Cubs will have the opportunity to turn him into a player they may use more. As a primary corner outfielder or a designated hitter, he's in a challenging space. You have to scramble a few eggs to make an omelet, and the Cubs will have to make a few hard decisions on interesting prospects this offseason. Obviously, this could change if an extra option year is granted, but we'll have to wait and see if that occurs. There's a future where Canario turns into a starting MLB outfielder, and the upside of being a 30+ home run hitter is real. How the Cubs navigate the powerful slugger will be something to monitor over the offseason. Will he be a 4th outfielder? Will he be dealt? Will he get another option and get a chance to work in Iowa? We'll have to see. -
My guess is it's prospect pedigree. I agree, Chase Strumpf is a nothing burger to me. He's org depth. There's some glove and power there, and maybe some day he pops up for a 50 game run on a bad team as a 26th guy...but he can go. In the end, there's not a name on this list I'd protect. If a team thinks Aliendo or Franklin can survive on an MLB roster all year, have it. Arias is too green for someone to stash and "phantom injury" (he needs innings not rest). I think everyone on here is either unpickable, or okay to go. Vazquez was the one I'd have worried about (and I'd have considered Perlaza if he wasn't a free agent). But that's about it for the time being.
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Coming up through the MiLB, he's had over 1,000 innings at the position, and likely far more practice over there as well. Whatever is in the data, the scouting, the internals...the Cubs just don't seem to like. They had a pretty easy hole for Morel to fill at 3b last year and he got 5 games there. I've read a few places that people question his arm slot when he throws, and that it doesn't really work well for 3b, so it could be that, but I think there might be a bit more to it as well. Morel, a highly athletic runner, just sucks in the OF. There seems to be a disconnect there between his reaction time, route running, etc and his natural athleticism, and I wonder if the same is true at 3b. 2b allows for a bit easier of a time, enough to perhaps make up for that lack of instinctual reaction.
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Yeah, I think the likelihood for Caissie is that the path to playing time isn't in RF (though one injury post-July this summer and any time before 2026 may highly change the equation for a while) with the Cubs. I'm all for getting him time at 1b. I just don't want to "move" him there yet. There's value in having him continue to refine his skills in RF for the time being (in case of that injury).
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I mean, your point has been his OF abilities to a degree, though. You've called him "slow" and brought up his FG defense scouting report. That's his current defense. But where do I play him right now? In RF. He's 21 years old. Having him get experience and get better there is a real thing still. The Cubs will have injuries at RF or in LF sometime. He's not MLB ready today and likely won't be until the end of next year if at all (I love Caissie but I expect him to have a rough introduction for a bit in AAA). Where do I play him in 2025? Well, again, lots of options. Maybe over that offseason then you move him to 1b for a year or two. Maybe he goes back to RF. There's lots of things that can happen between today and then.
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You do realize how outdated those FG scouting reports tend to be, right? Caissie has received very nice updates on his defense this year. I'll believe those over a scouting report FG probably hasn't updated much.
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Simply spitballing, but it feels like a Morel/young SP swap would make sense in the event the Cubs signed, say, an expensive Japanese DH. It would help fill the hole left behind by Stroman, the Cubs then fill DH with Ohtani, sign Hoskins...bingo, bango...most of your offseason done.
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Per Sharma in The Athletic "it is starting to feel like it would be a big upset if the Cubs dont pull off at least one big trade" this offseason.
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"Shohei Ohtani's highly anticipated free agency might not last that long," ESPN wrote. "A handful of general managers who are expected to be in the market and spoke to ESPN this week were under the impression that Ohtani will choose his next destination relatively quickly, perhaps before the end of the winter meetings, which take place Dec. 4-6 in Nashville, Tennessee." https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/shohei-ohtani-mlb_free-agency-soon/1670812/
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Owen Caissie isn't slow. He's actually pretty athletic for his size. He has greatly improved in RF and reports on him this year are vastly better than the past. The fear with Caissie has never been his current speed. It's what it may look like down the road. As of today there is little reason to take an improving 21 year old RF'er and just move him to 1b before it's needed. A move to 1b could occur, and it probably wouldn't take a ton of time, but as of now, Iowa's OF should be pretty clear, and the Cubs still need long term OF'ers. Suzuki and Happ aren't signed forever, just a few years.
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Yeah, Hoskins makes a lot of sense with the Cubs. Saw a projected 1/$16.5m deal for him, and that feels about right.
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Imanaga is going to be an interesting case. Stuff wise, I've seen some who suggest he's as good, if not a slight bit better than Yamamoto. However, there seems to be a massive disparity between how many home runs the two give up, and getting to the bottom of that disparity feels like it's pretty important. It's above my paygrade, so if the Cubs ultimately decide to go the route of Imanaga, I'll assume they have a plan in place to make sure this isn't a fatal flaw in his game.
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It's hard to pick between those two. For example, is Ohtani on a 10 year contract or is he on a high-AAV-multiple-opt out deal like was suggested? That third player also seems pretty skewed. Alonso is much better than Candelario or a 39 year old Justin Turner, so it feels like #1 is tilted based on just that. Agreed that if you gave me a better option in the 3rd slot from that medium tier, that I'd probably lean group 2 over group 1. Either would be good outcomes or me.
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I would say it's a near 0% chance the Cubs would consider moving him there in any way outside of an "oh horsefeathers, we have an injury and it's an emergency in this game" situation. He's played less than 40 innings in the infield since 2020. He's an OF'er now. Maybe he's a 1b if you really need him there, but he's not a 3b.
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Sounds about right. I've always wondered why so many legitimate people follow the Cat.
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🤣 Ya'll have stumbled down an old Pro Sports Daily rabbit hole with this one.
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Always been my take on it. He maintains a seriously good followers list which is what always throws me. He's got 10+ accounts that follow him that break legitimate Cub news.
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I've always questioned how legitimate Charles is, but he nailed the Darvish thing. At worst, it's another link to throw on the pile.
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He's been pretty awful in the limited time he's gotten in CF. He's a - 7 DRS in 540 IP there. That'd be among the worst 5 CF'ers in baseball last year defensively, Conversely, I'm not sure the Cubs have a huge hole. They've got PCA who's knocking on the door, and with his defense/speed he's basically a 2 fWAR CF'er today regardless of how he hits. They also have Mike Tauchmann, who I wouldn't really want as a starter, but if they felt PCA needed 2 months in Iowa, they'd probably survive there. He's quite athletic, but just doesn't seem to be a good fit in the OF. He takes pretty awful routes (in his limited time in CF, he's been a highly negative route runner, burst, and reaction time player). Part of that could be simply not playing there much. But part of that is instinctual, as well.
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Yeah, I agree with most here. I think this is a signal the Cubs are definitely going to look to move him, but want to have a fallback if they don't. Strangely enough, he probably would be a decent enough 1b. If he hits like his career line, he'd be a slightly above average 1b, as league average 1b was 108 wRC+ and he's a career 114 wRC+. Last season he hit 119 wRC+ which would have made him the 10th best 1b in the league. Defensively, it'd probably be a bit of a questionmark, as I think 1b is a bit harder to play than "anyone, anytime, whatever" that I think sometimes it's portrayed, but he's athletic enough that you'd have to think he'd figure it mostly out. I think he's probably best served as a 2b and it's okay for the Cubs to admit that. It's also okay for the Cubs to trade players and admit that they have 2 useful 2b and that they have to pick one.
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I both love and hate these articles. I love them because they're cool, but I hate them because I don't have this cool stuff.
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Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees
Jason Ross replied to Bobson Dugnutt's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Kiley McDaniel believes it's over 50/50 that Soto will be traded this winter. Alden Gonzalez says that the perception around the league, regardless of what Preller/Boras say, is that Soto will be dealt. "I don't think they have much of a choice", said one rival GM. The Padres are currently in a dangerous posiiton; they are out of compliance with their debt and have to get back into compliance or the MLB will intervene. While this happens frequently, and it's like the Padres will make that happen, too, they will struggle to do that without trading Soto. ESPN article and link to source From my perspective, it also makes it far more likely the Padres have zero interest in eating any money to get a better deal. That should keep the trade value (which is still Juan Soto, mind you) lower. -
Per Mooney in The Athletic today. "But the Cubs again plan to be involved in Ohtani's process, a league source confirmed"
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Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees
Jason Ross replied to Bobson Dugnutt's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The value is in the draft pick. A supplemental round draft pick nets teams, usually, a 45 FV player. A 45 FV player has surplus value, more so, than say, a 40 FV and less than a 50. Using Hoyer's numbers, he has claimed that surplus value to be around $20m in the past. With inflation, we can assume in his mind that number is more today. Other sites would put that value at different levels, it's not a set number, but it doesn't really matter, what matters is the player has value. If you sign a player to a contract who's attached to a QO, you can effectively say you're spending X in real world dollars, but also spending the value of that 2nd round selection (which, like a supplemental round pick, is worth around a 45 FV player). It's opportunity cost. What @Bertz is trying to say, and in theory I agree with him, if you are a team who's expecting a supplemental pick from a player if he signs elsewhere, than you have an incentive to offer more than you would. In the end you can either re-sign the player or get the pick. So in the example I gave above with Soto, if the Yankees offer $300m, they're really spending $320m in total losses: $300m and the loss of the pick, which is, roughly $20m. If the Cubs offer $300m, they are then not gaining the $20m in value, so they should in theory have incentive to spend an extra $20m because they're going to lose that anyways. The Cubs giving $320m to Soto matches the same cost of the Yankees $300m in this exercise. I'm not sure teams operate in such a fashion, but an argument can be made they should. -
Yeah, I'm probably pretty fine with moving James for the reasons above. There's an outcome where Triantos becomes an Alex Bregman, but I'm okay with letting another team take that gamble. To get there, you've got to get him to likely change his swing path a bit, change his approach at the plate significantly from "all contact-all-the-time" to "it's okay to strikeout if you hit more home runs". That's not a natural thing to do, and K/BB rates are the things that usually stick with players. There's also a worry about high-contact-rate guys like what we saw with Frank Schwindel; Schwindel made contact with most everything, but pitchers knew this too and they used it against him to induce weak contact. If you can get a team to buy into Triantos as a Bregman, that's an awesome outcome in a trade for a former 2nd round pick.
