Jason Ross
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Yeah, Verdugo has moved into "backpocket/dark horse" for 2024 category for me. He's a tad old, but nothing crazy at 22. He's a premium position player (though probably moves). He's got good contact rates and showing XBH power. Put him in Tennessee, maybe these last 2 months were a "light switch" and we'll see if the Cubs get a free prospect out of thin air that no one had on their bingo card. Worst case, it's just another pop-up prospect. It remains the most likely outcome, sadly. But hey, weirder things have happened and there's been at least some love thrown Verdugo's way in the past, so it's not insane.
- 8 replies
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- pete crow armstrong
- matt mervis
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The first full week in September is also the last full week of Minor League Baseball to cover for the Chicago Cubs. South Bend has been eliminated, Tennessee punched their ticket, while Myrtle Beach and Iowa continue their seasons. Who finished the year strongly in South Bend? Who's headed to Tennessee? Let's recap the week with another session of hot or not. Iowa Cubs, AAA (2-4) Iowa has been in some rut over the last few weeks. Perhaps it's due to a handful of call-ups, but the Iowa Cubs last won a series in an early August set against the Omaha Storm Chasers. Iowa is now just .500 in the second half of the season after finishing with the second-best record in the first half. 🔥Pete Crow-Armstrong: 166 wRC+, 26.9% K%, 3.8% BB%, 2HR, 1 2B, 1 3B: A pretty strong week from Pete Crow-Armstrong all around. We can be a little nitpicky, as the walks still aren't great, and the K% is still a bit high (though down from recent results), but I'm willing to let that go in exchange for the easy power on display. Crow-Armstrong hit a grand slam as a part of a four-hit effort on Sunday. This may be the last MiLB update on PCA, as it was reported that he will be called up to Chicago on Monday. How much do we think we'll see of him? 🔥Matt Mervis: 154 wRC+, 20.8% K%, 20% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B: How the Cubs handle the first base position this offseason will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow, in my opinion. With two upcoming free agents in Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario, who could handle the position, and internally, Matt Mervis, who's done nothing but hit AAA pitching, the Cubs have plenty of internal options (and a host of external as well). Mervis has done everything right since being sent back to Iowa. Do the Cubs give an earnest look at Matt Mervis again? Is he trade bait? Plenty of exciting Cubs baseball remains, but this winter will be quite interesting on the prospect front. 🥶Ben Brown: 2 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 3 R, 3 ER: Well, that's not ideal. Ben Brown struggled with control this week as he works back from a lat injury that sidled him for most of August. Most of the "awful" numbers come from an outing in which Ben Brown walked three and gave up three earned, all while only getting a single out on August 6th, but even his more recent outing wasn't particularly great in that outing. Brown only got a single strikeout in just under two innings. Let's hope it's rust. 🥶Brennen Davis: -.14 wRC+, 33.3% K%, 4.4% BB%: Brennen Davis has had a few flash moments of quality at the plate since returning but has not had a great run overall. He's still at just 30 PAs in AAA, so it's not time to panic yet, but with only two weeks left in the AAA season, Davis' ability to finish the year strong is rapidly running out. Tennessee Smokies, AA (2-4) On the surface, a two-win week would offer little to celebrate. Still, a two-win week was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Smokies, as it represented just enough to clinch a playoff birth on tap before the playoffs is a last home series against Rocket City and, hopefully, a chance to get some reinforcements (more on this later) a bit of time to settle in before the playoffs. 🔥Brandon Birdsell: 5IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Great start for the 2022 mid-round selection. Brandon Birdsell was a nice find for the Cubs out of Texas Tech at the time of the draft and has moved fairly quickly. I still wonder if Birdsell has enough juice to remain as an MLB starting option, if he'll be more of a Keegan Thompson swing-man, or if he'll be organizational up/down depth, but regardless, any of those outcomes will be useful from a 5th round selection. With only a handful of Tennessee starts, we may see him remain there at the start of 2024, but I expect he'll be on the MLB radar for spot starts come summer. 🔥Matt Shaw: 122 wRC+. 21.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 2 HR, 2 2B: Don't let the .200 batting average fool you. Matt Shaw had another good week in Tennessee. We constantly asked, "Is Matt Shaw too good for South Bend?" and we might have to ask the same about Tennessee. He remains imposing in his first run in the professional ranks. Earlier this week, when asked who he tries to emulate, Matt Shaw mentioned that he tries to play like Dustin Pedroia, and frankly, the skillset matches up. 🥶Cole Roederer: 8 wRC+, 41% K%, 0% BB%: There was a time when Cole Roederer was a strong candidate for MiLB Comeback Player of the Year in the Cubs system, but his season has taken a sharp decline over the last two months. The K's are too frequent, and when he's not hitting home runs, he's not bringing enough value. His swing will always remain one of the prettiest you'll see around, but the results aren't there. 🥶Pablo Aliendo: 54 wRC+, 20% K%, 20% BB%, 1 3B: Pablo Aliendo was another player who started very strong but has had a rough last 30 days. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting just .156 with a 77 wRC+, and this last week isn't helping the cause. He's still got a nice 110 wRC+ for an AA catcher, so Aliendo isn't entirely off the radar, but for a breakout prospect, you'd like to see a stronger finish. South Bend Cubs, High A (5-1) South Bend may have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they certainly didn't let anything bring them down this week. The Cubs won 5 of 6 against Quad Cities, highlighted by a whopping 26-run effort on Wednesday. Many South Bend Cubs will likely get promoted to Tennessee for their playoff push. Moises Ballesteros has already reportedly gotten called up, and I'd bet to see Kevin Alcantara go up as well (and a few others to boot). 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 304 wRC+, 13.6% K%, 13.6% BB%, 1 HR, 4 2b: There really may not have been a player in the entirety of the MiLB who had a better week than Kevin Alcantara did. In what may have been his last week in high-A, Alcantara took no prisoners, hitting over .500, barely striking out, and picking up five extra-base hits. In weeks like this, you remember what kind of upside Kevin has. 🔥Moises Ballesteros: 190 wRC+, 4.5% K%, 13.6% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B: No, I didn't transpose his walk and strikeout numbers; Moises Ballesteros only struck out a single time this week, compared to three walks. Yes, this also means "Big Mo" hit more extra-base hits than strikeouts. Look for Mo in the Tennessee section starting next week as he helps the Smokies hopefully capture a Southern League title. 🔥James Triantos: 151 wRC+, 0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 1 3B: I also didn't mess up any numbers for James Triantos before you asked. James was able to avoid striking out all week, much like the aforementioned Moises Ballesteros. I'm unsure if he'll get the bump to Tennessee right now or if his season will be over. Regardless, his season in High-A will end with a cumulative 115 wRC+ and a miniscule K% of 10.6%. I still need to see more extra-base hits and power, but his bat-to-ball skill is unrivaled right now. 🔥Luis Verdugo: 327 wRC+, 11.1% K%, 14.8% BB%, 2 HR, 5 2b: Talk about a late-season breakout for Luis Verdugo! Since July 1st, Verdugo has a 162 wRC+, a K% of 12.1%, has hit seven home runs with 16 doubles, and has looked like a different hitter. He's been a mainstay of the "hot" category, and there's some helium here for a 23-year-old who will be in Tennessee to start next season. He remains Rule 5 eligible, but I don't think he'll be picked. Keep an eye on him as a sleeper in 2024 to make the Cubs if these last two months were a light switch and something's changed. 😟Michael Arias: 2.1 IP, 5 K, 5 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Michael Arias came out of Sunday's game with an apparent injury. Prior to being hurt, Arias was kind of all over the place, with five strikeouts and five walks, but the concern here is the injury. Arias had a great season, all things considered, so I'm a little worried that it could all be undone with a bad injury. Let's hope he's healthy, can get some good work over the offseason, and then go full bore next year. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (4-2) The Myrtle Beach Pelicans finished off their last week of the regular season, winning four of six at home against Columbia, capping off their regular season on a high note. Hopefully, the momentum will carry them into the week, as they play three games (if necessary) against Charleston, the first on the road and the last two at home. 🔥Jackson Ferris: 5 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Fresh off one of his worst starts on the season, Jackson Ferris bounced back with five strong innings. Throwing 56 innings in his first season as a professional, Ferris finished with a K/9 over 12 and a 3.60 xFIP on the season. If there's some polish, it's on being more deliberate and consistent in the zone. He's just 19; there's some funk there, and the arrow is pointing in the right direction. 🔥Brian Kalmer: 271 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3 HR, 2 2B: I have no idea if Brian Kalmer will continue to be this good in the future, but the present is really fun. He's also learning, as his K%, which used to be in the "danger zone," has dropped to 20%. I have no complaints about his first stint. His age says we should expect him to be better than Low-A, but he literally finishes with a WRC+ of 200, and I'm not entirely sure that's just age. 🔥Jonathon Long: 127 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 9.1% BB%, 2 HR, 1 2B: Again, ignore the .200 batting average Jonathon Long had and focus on the .371 wOBA and the 127 wRC+. Like Brian Kalmer, Long is probably too old and good for Myrtle Beach, but they also put up eye-popping numbers. Kalmer has overshadowed him, but that has less to do with Long and more with Kalmer. 🔥Drew Gray; 3 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Drew Gray has been lights out recently, with 22 strikeouts in just ten innings. The Tommy John surgery seems quite successful, and the young left-handed pitcher finished 2023 off wonderfully. I wonder if he'll start in Myrtle for a month like Cade Horton to protect his arm or just go straight to South Bend? 🥶Luis Rujano: 1 IP, 1 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: Not a super strong finish for Luis Rujano, but a great season nonetheless. He's made himself interesting enough that an early season 2024 call-up to South Bend, or even a South Bend start, is on the table. Either way, for a pitcher who reportedly only had a fastball this time last year, he's had a wonderful season. I've got some hopes that Rujano can eventually end up in an MLB rotation. View full article
- 8 replies
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- pete crow armstrong
- matt mervis
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Iowa Cubs, AAA (2-4) Iowa has been in some rut over the last few weeks. Perhaps it's due to a handful of call-ups, but the Iowa Cubs last won a series in an early August set against the Omaha Storm Chasers. Iowa is now just .500 in the second half of the season after finishing with the second-best record in the first half. 🔥Pete Crow-Armstrong: 166 wRC+, 26.9% K%, 3.8% BB%, 2HR, 1 2B, 1 3B: A pretty strong week from Pete Crow-Armstrong all around. We can be a little nitpicky, as the walks still aren't great, and the K% is still a bit high (though down from recent results), but I'm willing to let that go in exchange for the easy power on display. Crow-Armstrong hit a grand slam as a part of a four-hit effort on Sunday. This may be the last MiLB update on PCA, as it was reported that he will be called up to Chicago on Monday. How much do we think we'll see of him? 🔥Matt Mervis: 154 wRC+, 20.8% K%, 20% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B: How the Cubs handle the first base position this offseason will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow, in my opinion. With two upcoming free agents in Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario, who could handle the position, and internally, Matt Mervis, who's done nothing but hit AAA pitching, the Cubs have plenty of internal options (and a host of external as well). Mervis has done everything right since being sent back to Iowa. Do the Cubs give an earnest look at Matt Mervis again? Is he trade bait? Plenty of exciting Cubs baseball remains, but this winter will be quite interesting on the prospect front. 🥶Ben Brown: 2 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 3 R, 3 ER: Well, that's not ideal. Ben Brown struggled with control this week as he works back from a lat injury that sidled him for most of August. Most of the "awful" numbers come from an outing in which Ben Brown walked three and gave up three earned, all while only getting a single out on August 6th, but even his more recent outing wasn't particularly great in that outing. Brown only got a single strikeout in just under two innings. Let's hope it's rust. 🥶Brennen Davis: -.14 wRC+, 33.3% K%, 4.4% BB%: Brennen Davis has had a few flash moments of quality at the plate since returning but has not had a great run overall. He's still at just 30 PAs in AAA, so it's not time to panic yet, but with only two weeks left in the AAA season, Davis' ability to finish the year strong is rapidly running out. Tennessee Smokies, AA (2-4) On the surface, a two-win week would offer little to celebrate. Still, a two-win week was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Smokies, as it represented just enough to clinch a playoff birth on tap before the playoffs is a last home series against Rocket City and, hopefully, a chance to get some reinforcements (more on this later) a bit of time to settle in before the playoffs. 🔥Brandon Birdsell: 5IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Great start for the 2022 mid-round selection. Brandon Birdsell was a nice find for the Cubs out of Texas Tech at the time of the draft and has moved fairly quickly. I still wonder if Birdsell has enough juice to remain as an MLB starting option, if he'll be more of a Keegan Thompson swing-man, or if he'll be organizational up/down depth, but regardless, any of those outcomes will be useful from a 5th round selection. With only a handful of Tennessee starts, we may see him remain there at the start of 2024, but I expect he'll be on the MLB radar for spot starts come summer. 🔥Matt Shaw: 122 wRC+. 21.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 2 HR, 2 2B: Don't let the .200 batting average fool you. Matt Shaw had another good week in Tennessee. We constantly asked, "Is Matt Shaw too good for South Bend?" and we might have to ask the same about Tennessee. He remains imposing in his first run in the professional ranks. Earlier this week, when asked who he tries to emulate, Matt Shaw mentioned that he tries to play like Dustin Pedroia, and frankly, the skillset matches up. 🥶Cole Roederer: 8 wRC+, 41% K%, 0% BB%: There was a time when Cole Roederer was a strong candidate for MiLB Comeback Player of the Year in the Cubs system, but his season has taken a sharp decline over the last two months. The K's are too frequent, and when he's not hitting home runs, he's not bringing enough value. His swing will always remain one of the prettiest you'll see around, but the results aren't there. 🥶Pablo Aliendo: 54 wRC+, 20% K%, 20% BB%, 1 3B: Pablo Aliendo was another player who started very strong but has had a rough last 30 days. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting just .156 with a 77 wRC+, and this last week isn't helping the cause. He's still got a nice 110 wRC+ for an AA catcher, so Aliendo isn't entirely off the radar, but for a breakout prospect, you'd like to see a stronger finish. South Bend Cubs, High A (5-1) South Bend may have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they certainly didn't let anything bring them down this week. The Cubs won 5 of 6 against Quad Cities, highlighted by a whopping 26-run effort on Wednesday. Many South Bend Cubs will likely get promoted to Tennessee for their playoff push. Moises Ballesteros has already reportedly gotten called up, and I'd bet to see Kevin Alcantara go up as well (and a few others to boot). 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 304 wRC+, 13.6% K%, 13.6% BB%, 1 HR, 4 2b: There really may not have been a player in the entirety of the MiLB who had a better week than Kevin Alcantara did. In what may have been his last week in high-A, Alcantara took no prisoners, hitting over .500, barely striking out, and picking up five extra-base hits. In weeks like this, you remember what kind of upside Kevin has. 🔥Moises Ballesteros: 190 wRC+, 4.5% K%, 13.6% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B: No, I didn't transpose his walk and strikeout numbers; Moises Ballesteros only struck out a single time this week, compared to three walks. Yes, this also means "Big Mo" hit more extra-base hits than strikeouts. Look for Mo in the Tennessee section starting next week as he helps the Smokies hopefully capture a Southern League title. 🔥James Triantos: 151 wRC+, 0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 1 3B: I also didn't mess up any numbers for James Triantos before you asked. James was able to avoid striking out all week, much like the aforementioned Moises Ballesteros. I'm unsure if he'll get the bump to Tennessee right now or if his season will be over. Regardless, his season in High-A will end with a cumulative 115 wRC+ and a miniscule K% of 10.6%. I still need to see more extra-base hits and power, but his bat-to-ball skill is unrivaled right now. 🔥Luis Verdugo: 327 wRC+, 11.1% K%, 14.8% BB%, 2 HR, 5 2b: Talk about a late-season breakout for Luis Verdugo! Since July 1st, Verdugo has a 162 wRC+, a K% of 12.1%, has hit seven home runs with 16 doubles, and has looked like a different hitter. He's been a mainstay of the "hot" category, and there's some helium here for a 23-year-old who will be in Tennessee to start next season. He remains Rule 5 eligible, but I don't think he'll be picked. Keep an eye on him as a sleeper in 2024 to make the Cubs if these last two months were a light switch and something's changed. 😟Michael Arias: 2.1 IP, 5 K, 5 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Michael Arias came out of Sunday's game with an apparent injury. Prior to being hurt, Arias was kind of all over the place, with five strikeouts and five walks, but the concern here is the injury. Arias had a great season, all things considered, so I'm a little worried that it could all be undone with a bad injury. Let's hope he's healthy, can get some good work over the offseason, and then go full bore next year. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (4-2) The Myrtle Beach Pelicans finished off their last week of the regular season, winning four of six at home against Columbia, capping off their regular season on a high note. Hopefully, the momentum will carry them into the week, as they play three games (if necessary) against Charleston, the first on the road and the last two at home. 🔥Jackson Ferris: 5 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Fresh off one of his worst starts on the season, Jackson Ferris bounced back with five strong innings. Throwing 56 innings in his first season as a professional, Ferris finished with a K/9 over 12 and a 3.60 xFIP on the season. If there's some polish, it's on being more deliberate and consistent in the zone. He's just 19; there's some funk there, and the arrow is pointing in the right direction. 🔥Brian Kalmer: 271 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3 HR, 2 2B: I have no idea if Brian Kalmer will continue to be this good in the future, but the present is really fun. He's also learning, as his K%, which used to be in the "danger zone," has dropped to 20%. I have no complaints about his first stint. His age says we should expect him to be better than Low-A, but he literally finishes with a WRC+ of 200, and I'm not entirely sure that's just age. 🔥Jonathon Long: 127 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 9.1% BB%, 2 HR, 1 2B: Again, ignore the .200 batting average Jonathon Long had and focus on the .371 wOBA and the 127 wRC+. Like Brian Kalmer, Long is probably too old and good for Myrtle Beach, but they also put up eye-popping numbers. Kalmer has overshadowed him, but that has less to do with Long and more with Kalmer. 🔥Drew Gray; 3 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Drew Gray has been lights out recently, with 22 strikeouts in just ten innings. The Tommy John surgery seems quite successful, and the young left-handed pitcher finished 2023 off wonderfully. I wonder if he'll start in Myrtle for a month like Cade Horton to protect his arm or just go straight to South Bend? 🥶Luis Rujano: 1 IP, 1 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: Not a super strong finish for Luis Rujano, but a great season nonetheless. He's made himself interesting enough that an early season 2024 call-up to South Bend, or even a South Bend start, is on the table. Either way, for a pitcher who reportedly only had a fastball this time last year, he's had a wonderful season. I've got some hopes that Rujano can eventually end up in an MLB rotation.
- 8 comments
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- pete crow armstrong
- matt mervis
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I don't think he'll sit like Canario...but I don't think he'll play much at all. I expect it'll be defense late in games, pinch running, etc, especially after Ross' comments. I would be fine to see him play over Tauchman on a few occasions to begin with, personally (who's been pretty brutal for a while, and I had been kind of waiting for the clock to strike midnight on) and maybe getting more time after. I could also be fine if this means more Bellinger in CF, and Candelario/Madrigal more in the infield. PCA can help the Cubs win games and I hope they use him as such.
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Moisés Ballesteros & James Triantos to AA
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Yes. South Bend is eliminated, and they have no more regular season games, so probably a handful of people will go up. -
I'd guess the Cubs were never overly excited about Greene in AAA; they're pretty good at identifying reclamation arms and they let him go pretty fast. He had decent results, but he gave up a pretty decent amount of base runners against AAA competition. There just isn't much there. Probably also have to fancy their chances he doesn't get claimed. Contending teams are pretty full on their 40-man rosters like the Cubs, and bad teams probably don't care much for a 34-year-old in the twilights of his career. He's a decent fall back option, but I'm not sad to see him only get the single inning.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-5-23
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
2b or 3b. As Tim mentioned, the Cubs made Nick Madrigal, who had a bottom-barrel arm strength% in 2022 into a capable 3b. I would trust that the Cubs could extract that out of Matt Shaw, who, while kind of squatty and not known for his arm, remains pretty athletic overall. He's been playing 3b in the MiLB recently, so I think that's the path he will take unless he proves it's simple untenable. -
That's really the best possible outcome for this. No IL stint, no loss of Alzolay or Leiter...just the loss of a shell of a Shane Greene.
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Yeah nice to see Little progress. Koen Moreno is suddenly pitching well in Myrtle Beach. Granted, he's 22, and had a length of injury issues, so who knows there, but there's some hope that 2020 won't be a full loss. Weird draft all around; the have 2 top-100 prospects from the 2020 draft...both selected by other teams yet almost entirely developed by the Cubs.
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I was more or less comparing Little to the other options the Cubs have currently who can be called up, less so than the Cubs loss (or whomever is going down). I agree, Boxberger is cooked. I'd rather the Cubs gamble a bit on someone like Luke Little who may/may not have some walk issues versus someone who offers whatever "veteran"-ness that Boxberger or the ilk would bring to a playoff race. Little presents an imperfect solution to a question (as does Palencia, frankly), but one I'd rather take than some of the other imperfect answers presented. If there's positives for Little, it's that his walk issues have gotten better as he's moved to the BP, and even better as he's moved up a level. There's also something in that you just can't teach 99mph on the surface, and even less from a LHP. Part of that also may be a personal bias, too, which I have to admit is possible. I've spent entirely more time with Luke Little and Daniel Palencia than someone like Brad Boxberger or a bunch of other guys over the last few years, and probably more time than most would have considering the limitations of watching a MiLB stream. Part of why I'd rather roll with those guys is for me, they're probably the devil I know,
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-5-23
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
From my eye; he's just mashing everything in the zone...and he's making contact with most everything out side of it. His bat control is really, really good. He also swings, a ton. So he's kind of in Nico Hoerner territory. Hoerner is bottom 30% in chase rate, but 99% in whiff rate. I'd like to see Shaw knock some of that out, because he'll probably do much better if he starts swinging at good strikes instead of, well, anything. The positive thing is that when Shaw gets into 2 strike counts, he really dials back the leg kick, while maintaining power (I.E. 2 strike triple Sunday afternoon I highlighted in the weekly recap). My fear is that better pitchers will exploit Shaw, not so much on 2 strike counts, but early in the count with chase pitches designed to get him to roll over. We saw these issues when the league realized that Frank Schwindel would swing at anything thrown his way. Not saying Shaw=Schwindel, just that my fear is that could be Shaw's fatal flaw if he doesn't work on some things and be a bit more selective. -
The walks are certainly going to be a bit of a concern, but I think for now, having these guys in the bullpen is probably their best bet moving forward. I'd far rather watch the Cubs sink or swim with Luke Little or Daniel Palencia than, say, Brad Boxberger. They'll have to make choices, and I guess I'm on the side of "give me the better stuff and hope he can throw strikes for a month".
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Big fan of Luke Little.
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I would guess that the organization would explain something about Canario being someone who has game-changing power and they'd like to have that option off the bench. In the grand scheme of things, a week, or two weeks, of missed AAA PA's won't really change his trajectory. With that said, I agree, and I wonder what the idea is here. It's probably still a bit better for Canario to keep playing, and making up for missed time. I'm not sure I'd have him on the MLB roster right now. I also don't think he should be starting right now. We'll see, he will probably hit a pinch hit home run tonight because I said what I said, and I'll look real dumb. If there's one benefit, Alexander is cashing an MLB paycheck currently, so I'm sure he's not complaining.
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I'm not really sure he's an MLB pitcher even when he's filling up the zone, personally. You're not wrong that players like Dillon Maples had all the stuff in the world but couldn't throw strikes and he's a version of the extreme. Caleb Kilian, when he's "right" is on the other side; I'm not sure he has a single pitch that's truly 50 grade (though there enough people who think he has a 50 grade cutter, so benefit of the doubt would give him one), so he can fill up the strike zone, but MLB hitters are going to hit it. Eventually, MLB hitters will BABIP you to death if you don't get them to swing and miss. It's really hard to succeed as an MLB pitcher if you cannot generate whiffs, much like it's very hard to succeed as an MLB pitcher if you don't throw strikes. It requires elite-command, and while I think Kilian is good there, I elite is very rare. That's not to say we can't find anecdotal evidence to suggest otherwise; Miles Mikolas has a sub 6 K/9 and has been worth 2 wins, while Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader are among the league leaders for both fWAR and BB/9 for relievers. It's only to say, barring extremes, a balance of control and stuff is required. Kilian, in my humble opinion, probably just doesn't have the stuff even if his command is on point. MLB hitters are just really, really horsefeathers good. Those "good balls" are really the issue here; he doesn't have anything that makes hitters expand their zone and chase, just like his fastball/cutter combo isn't a super great combination to generate whiffs in the zone. He's attempted to add two pitches since coming to Chicago, neither have had the desired effect to the date. Unless he can add something new to the arsenal (sweeper?) or really learn how to implement his change-up/curve-ball (the two pitches he's attempted to add) to generate those out-of-zone-whiffs, I'm not sure he'll transcend where he's at.
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I don't want to make it seem bad to be a command guy, having command over your stuff is a good hurdle to clear, especially young. But I also think good command, at low levels can mask mediocre pitch mixes, and it's something to note. Kilian is someone who, I feel, had some pretty razor thin margins to succeed: his command was his calling card, and he was doing so on a very mediocre pitch mix. Even when his command was on point, looking back, he probably profiled as a BORP because there wasn't any pitch he threw that generated chase or profiled as more than MLB average (lots of 45's with maybe a 50 grade cut). Transmorgrified makes a solid point that highlights that too, in that he's not someone who could see any loss of command. I'm more than willing to admit I probably got too high on Kilian coming out of Arizona Fall League action than I should have. I remember, just a bit after the deadline, watching a bunch of his pitching from SF and being concerned with his breaking stuff and how he generated K's from it, and this should have been a bit more of a red flag than it was at the time. I grow myself. For his sake, I really still hope he can find something. I'm always on "team prospect" and wish they all succeed. But I also try to be realistic on their chances. As of today, my hopes for Kilian being above "org up/down" is not particularly high.
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Kilian has a lot of the same issues in his build that other SP's we've previously discussed. He's a command over pitch guy, and he was able to out command hitters at lower levels. As he's progressed, and especially come to the MLB, he doesn't have a single pitch that's great. The fastball velocity isn't really all that new, it's more of a return than anything (he sat 96-98mph pretty consistently prior). It's just not a good fastball; velocity alone will be hit at the highest levels. He tinkered with a change up that failed and a spike curve that didn't really end up as a quality chase pitch. For him to really have any staying power, I think someone would have to get him to learn a new pitch. The Cubs have had a ton of pitching wins on that front, so while it's not impossible, if it's not happening here-and-now, it feels like it wont. I wish the best for Caleb, he's certainly struggled, worked hard to get back to what he was around June 2022, but I haven't personally seen much progress beyond that. I'd love nothing more than for him to develop a chase pitch, but I'm not confident it'll happen. His current ability fits into that traditional "up/down" org guy. I think he could be useful for a start here or there, maybe he finds run as a long relief option down the road, but he's pretty replacement level all things considered.
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We're down to just a few weeks left of minor league baseball. The South Bend Cubs will see their season end in just a few days, while teams like the Tennessee Smokies will extend into a (hopefully lengthy) playoff run. Who's fueling these teams in their last days? Who's struggling headed into the winter break? Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports - Caleb Kilian Pictured Contrary to popular belief, neither Yonathan Perlaza nor Luke Little turned into dust when they weren't selected for big-league promotions on Sept. 1. There might yet be transactions ahead that affect the parent club. Still, there are also prospects with plenty at stake down the stretch. Iowa Cubs, AAA (2-4) Despite the Iowa Cubs' talent, they just cannot get anything going, as they dropped another series, this time to the Toledo Mud Hens. The Cubs enter this week against bottom dwellers, the Omaha Storm Chasers, with first place still in striking distance. A big week could secure Iowa their second straight first-place finish. 🔥Ben Brown: 1 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Ben Brown earns a "hot" for simply being on the field and looking healthy after the injury scare he faced a month ago. Lat injuries can linger (it was a lat that cost Adbert Alzolay all of his 2019 season), so seeing a healthy and energized Brown was great. It's also big because he could, in theory, help the playoff push and win a bullpen role with the parent club. 🔥Brennen Davis: 139 wRC+, 39% K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR, 2 2B: Glad to see the power come back for Brennen Davis. There were a bunch of strikeouts and no walks, which is not ideal. We didn't see Davis hit for any authority early this season. With some hope, Davis will find the mid-ground between contact quantity and contact quality. There's still a player there, I think. 🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 51 wRC+, 41.4% K%, 6.9% BB%, 1 2B: Maybe I was a little premature with Pete Crow-Armstrong, claiming he'd make it to Chicago this season. Iowa seems to be attacking his aggressive nature right now (which isn't developmentally bad). It may be that Crow-Armstrong just finishes up in Triple-A instead of sitting on an MLB bench, but I still think we might see his speed and defense before the year's over. 🥶Caleb Kilian: 4.1 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 7 R, 7 ER: Fresh off of being my MiLB pitcher of the month, Caleb Kilian laid an egg in Iowa. Kilian gave up four home runs. While the walks remained in check, getting lit up like that won't ingratiate him with the front office as they try to patch the bullpen in Chicago. Tennessee Smokies, AA (0-6) That is not an ideal week for the Tennessee Smokies, who went winless at home against the Biloxi Shuckers. Despite the awful week, Tennessee remains in first place. I suspect reinforcements from the Cubs High-A affiliate, South Bend, will be arriving soon, as South Bend's season will not be extending into the playoffs. A 6 game set on the road against the Mississippi Braves looms and should be a good pallet cleanser for the team. Mississippi has the second-worst record in the league. 🔥Matt Shaw: 137 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 1 2B, 1 3B: Surface numbers for Matt Shaw since getting to AA Tennessee have been good, and he's continuing to hit everything he makes contact with. Shaw has seen a slight uptick in strikeouts since getting to Tennessee, which might not be bad. Shaw does need to learn how to curtain his aggressive nature. With that said, Shaw hit his fourth professional triple Sunday night and displayed a much-protracted leg kick (which he does with two strikes) 🔥Cade Horton: 5 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 3 R, 2 ER: Cade Horton continues to carve up the minor leagues. This probably wasn't his "best" start, but if these are his "weak" starts, then I think that says everything you need to know about how good he is. Horton struggled for a moment early but seemed to get his feet back under himself and closed out strong. He and Matt Shaw (the last two first-round picks) should make their debuts in 2024. 🔥Owen Caissie: 193 wRC+, 8% K%, 28% BB%, 2 2B: It's pretty hard to put up a near 200 wRC+ line in a week without hitting a single home run, but Owen Caissie managed to do it. While he had a good month of August, it wasn't a great month, but this is more like it for Mr. Caissie. The strikeouts were non-existent, and he walked a ton. End the season strong, and it will make for an incredibly exciting start for Owen Caissie in Iowa for 2024. 🥶Kohl Franklin: 2 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 5 R, 5 ER: Kohl Franklin's line this week was pretty similar to Caleb Kilian's line: he didn't walk a lot, but the home run ball killed him. Franklin hasn't had a very strong run of late, and while I still believe in him down the road, he might make a switch to the bullpen at some point in the near future in his career (mirroring players like Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, and Porter Hodge). Big stuff remains here, but I'm not sure it'll happen for him in the rotation. 🥶B.J. Murray: -41 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 0 BB%, 1 2B: Not a good showing for many this week in Tennessee, as I guess that's what happens when you go winless, and BJ Murray was no exception. Thankfully for Murray, his entire season has been so good it's easy to ignore weeks like this as nothing to worry about. Murray has done a great job of making a name for himself this season and is recently off a 135 wRC+ month of August. Move along, and don't worry. South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) This will be the second to last week for the South Bend Cubs, who will miss out on the playoffs for the 2023 season. The Fort Wayne TinCaps took 5 of 6 in South Bend's last road trip, and the Cubs' last homestand of the season will begin Tuesday against Quad Cities. Expect a handful of the "fun" Cubs prospects to make their way to Tennessee to help the playoff push shortly. 🔥Michael Arias: 4IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: In a week that was kind of hard to find "hot" performances, Michael Arias put up one of his best starts in quite some time. Facing only one over the minimum, Arias shut down Fort Wayne pretty well, with his only blemish a home run. I hope for Arias' sake he finishes next week strong, as this has been a nice breakout season for someone just learning how to get professional hitters out. 🥶Moises Ballesteros: 80 wRC+, 29.4% K%, 0% BB%, 1 2B: Moises Ballesteros has struggled a bit lately, and that's okay. He's moved incredibly quickly, and his season line is still fantastic overall for someone his age. There probably needs to be some more home run power in his bat if he's going to become a true DH threat, but again, with his age, this has been a fun season. I wonder if the Cubs will promote him to AA, even with the late-season skids. 🥶Kevin Alcantara: 93 wRC+, 23.8% K%, 19% BB%: This isn't the worst line of all time, but I'm throwing him on the "cold" list for the lack of power he's shown since returning to the South Bend lineup. Kevin Alcantara has only one double and one home run (both hit in the same game), which isn't enough. I'd like to see Kevin Alcantara tap into the power a bit more. It's not terrible, but it's not good, either. 🥶James Triantos: 56 wRC+, 28.6% K%, 0% BB%: Uncharacteristically high strikeouts plagued James Triantos this week. James Triantos didn't strike out once last week, so it's forgivable. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs develop Triantos and where he eventually ends. It's another successful season for the 2021 2nd-round draft pick. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-3) The Pelicans had multiple games this week disrupted due to weather while visiting the Charleston River Dogs, the divisional leaders. Myrtle Beach, winners of their division in the first half, has already wrapped up a playoff spot, but it would be great for them to finish off strongly as they will play the River Dogs in a three three-game playoff set in two weeks. The Columbia Fireflies, currently in second place, come to town for the Pelicans' last homestand of the regular season. 🔥Drew Gray: 3 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Drew Gray had perhaps the best start of his career this weekend, as he struck out 7 of the ten batters he faced. Drew Gray has had a pretty lovely bounceback season from Tommy John surgery, with walks being his only Achilles' heel. As we move forward, it will be important to see if the control is an issue with rust or if it's something more sinister, but for now, enjoy the kind of arm talent Gray has for what it is. 🔥Koen Moreno: 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Koen Moreno is probably a bit too old for Myrtle Beach at age 22, but he's had such a rocky go of it that I'm just happy to succeed anywhere. He's more polished than he's ever been, and there's probably enough here to dream of him having some MLB ability in him. The 2020 draft hasn't always been kind for the Cubs, but extracting some value from former 5th-round pick Koen Moreno would be great. 🥶Jackson Ferris: 3 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 4 R, 4 ER: Over the course of the season, Jackson Ferris has done a really good job of avoiding blow-ups, but it was bound to happen. He's still working on being more consistent and avoiding walks, which got him in trouble this week. The learning process and these kinds of hiccups can be good building blocks. 🥶Jefferson Rojas: 19 wRC+, 42.1% K%, 0% BB%: Jefferson Rojas has featured so often in the "hot" category that, like many making uncharacteristic appearances on the "not" list, it's something that can be largely ignored as a blip on the radar. Lots of strikeouts is not something that Rojas has dealt with up until this point, and it hopefully will just be a rough, bad, no-good week for Jefferson. View full article
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Contrary to popular belief, neither Yonathan Perlaza nor Luke Little turned into dust when they weren't selected for big-league promotions on Sept. 1. There might yet be transactions ahead that affect the parent club. Still, there are also prospects with plenty at stake down the stretch. Iowa Cubs, AAA (2-4) Despite the Iowa Cubs' talent, they just cannot get anything going, as they dropped another series, this time to the Toledo Mud Hens. The Cubs enter this week against bottom dwellers, the Omaha Storm Chasers, with first place still in striking distance. A big week could secure Iowa their second straight first-place finish. 🔥Ben Brown: 1 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Ben Brown earns a "hot" for simply being on the field and looking healthy after the injury scare he faced a month ago. Lat injuries can linger (it was a lat that cost Adbert Alzolay all of his 2019 season), so seeing a healthy and energized Brown was great. It's also big because he could, in theory, help the playoff push and win a bullpen role with the parent club. 🔥Brennen Davis: 139 wRC+, 39% K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR, 2 2B: Glad to see the power come back for Brennen Davis. There were a bunch of strikeouts and no walks, which is not ideal. We didn't see Davis hit for any authority early this season. With some hope, Davis will find the mid-ground between contact quantity and contact quality. There's still a player there, I think. 🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 51 wRC+, 41.4% K%, 6.9% BB%, 1 2B: Maybe I was a little premature with Pete Crow-Armstrong, claiming he'd make it to Chicago this season. Iowa seems to be attacking his aggressive nature right now (which isn't developmentally bad). It may be that Crow-Armstrong just finishes up in Triple-A instead of sitting on an MLB bench, but I still think we might see his speed and defense before the year's over. 🥶Caleb Kilian: 4.1 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 7 R, 7 ER: Fresh off of being my MiLB pitcher of the month, Caleb Kilian laid an egg in Iowa. Kilian gave up four home runs. While the walks remained in check, getting lit up like that won't ingratiate him with the front office as they try to patch the bullpen in Chicago. Tennessee Smokies, AA (0-6) That is not an ideal week for the Tennessee Smokies, who went winless at home against the Biloxi Shuckers. Despite the awful week, Tennessee remains in first place. I suspect reinforcements from the Cubs High-A affiliate, South Bend, will be arriving soon, as South Bend's season will not be extending into the playoffs. A 6 game set on the road against the Mississippi Braves looms and should be a good pallet cleanser for the team. Mississippi has the second-worst record in the league. 🔥Matt Shaw: 137 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 1 2B, 1 3B: Surface numbers for Matt Shaw since getting to AA Tennessee have been good, and he's continuing to hit everything he makes contact with. Shaw has seen a slight uptick in strikeouts since getting to Tennessee, which might not be bad. Shaw does need to learn how to curtain his aggressive nature. With that said, Shaw hit his fourth professional triple Sunday night and displayed a much-protracted leg kick (which he does with two strikes) 🔥Cade Horton: 5 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 3 R, 2 ER: Cade Horton continues to carve up the minor leagues. This probably wasn't his "best" start, but if these are his "weak" starts, then I think that says everything you need to know about how good he is. Horton struggled for a moment early but seemed to get his feet back under himself and closed out strong. He and Matt Shaw (the last two first-round picks) should make their debuts in 2024. 🔥Owen Caissie: 193 wRC+, 8% K%, 28% BB%, 2 2B: It's pretty hard to put up a near 200 wRC+ line in a week without hitting a single home run, but Owen Caissie managed to do it. While he had a good month of August, it wasn't a great month, but this is more like it for Mr. Caissie. The strikeouts were non-existent, and he walked a ton. End the season strong, and it will make for an incredibly exciting start for Owen Caissie in Iowa for 2024. 🥶Kohl Franklin: 2 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 5 R, 5 ER: Kohl Franklin's line this week was pretty similar to Caleb Kilian's line: he didn't walk a lot, but the home run ball killed him. Franklin hasn't had a very strong run of late, and while I still believe in him down the road, he might make a switch to the bullpen at some point in the near future in his career (mirroring players like Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, and Porter Hodge). Big stuff remains here, but I'm not sure it'll happen for him in the rotation. 🥶B.J. Murray: -41 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 0 BB%, 1 2B: Not a good showing for many this week in Tennessee, as I guess that's what happens when you go winless, and BJ Murray was no exception. Thankfully for Murray, his entire season has been so good it's easy to ignore weeks like this as nothing to worry about. Murray has done a great job of making a name for himself this season and is recently off a 135 wRC+ month of August. Move along, and don't worry. South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) This will be the second to last week for the South Bend Cubs, who will miss out on the playoffs for the 2023 season. The Fort Wayne TinCaps took 5 of 6 in South Bend's last road trip, and the Cubs' last homestand of the season will begin Tuesday against Quad Cities. Expect a handful of the "fun" Cubs prospects to make their way to Tennessee to help the playoff push shortly. 🔥Michael Arias: 4IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: In a week that was kind of hard to find "hot" performances, Michael Arias put up one of his best starts in quite some time. Facing only one over the minimum, Arias shut down Fort Wayne pretty well, with his only blemish a home run. I hope for Arias' sake he finishes next week strong, as this has been a nice breakout season for someone just learning how to get professional hitters out. 🥶Moises Ballesteros: 80 wRC+, 29.4% K%, 0% BB%, 1 2B: Moises Ballesteros has struggled a bit lately, and that's okay. He's moved incredibly quickly, and his season line is still fantastic overall for someone his age. There probably needs to be some more home run power in his bat if he's going to become a true DH threat, but again, with his age, this has been a fun season. I wonder if the Cubs will promote him to AA, even with the late-season skids. 🥶Kevin Alcantara: 93 wRC+, 23.8% K%, 19% BB%: This isn't the worst line of all time, but I'm throwing him on the "cold" list for the lack of power he's shown since returning to the South Bend lineup. Kevin Alcantara has only one double and one home run (both hit in the same game), which isn't enough. I'd like to see Kevin Alcantara tap into the power a bit more. It's not terrible, but it's not good, either. 🥶James Triantos: 56 wRC+, 28.6% K%, 0% BB%: Uncharacteristically high strikeouts plagued James Triantos this week. James Triantos didn't strike out once last week, so it's forgivable. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs develop Triantos and where he eventually ends. It's another successful season for the 2021 2nd-round draft pick. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-3) The Pelicans had multiple games this week disrupted due to weather while visiting the Charleston River Dogs, the divisional leaders. Myrtle Beach, winners of their division in the first half, has already wrapped up a playoff spot, but it would be great for them to finish off strongly as they will play the River Dogs in a three three-game playoff set in two weeks. The Columbia Fireflies, currently in second place, come to town for the Pelicans' last homestand of the regular season. 🔥Drew Gray: 3 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Drew Gray had perhaps the best start of his career this weekend, as he struck out 7 of the ten batters he faced. Drew Gray has had a pretty lovely bounceback season from Tommy John surgery, with walks being his only Achilles' heel. As we move forward, it will be important to see if the control is an issue with rust or if it's something more sinister, but for now, enjoy the kind of arm talent Gray has for what it is. 🔥Koen Moreno: 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Koen Moreno is probably a bit too old for Myrtle Beach at age 22, but he's had such a rocky go of it that I'm just happy to succeed anywhere. He's more polished than he's ever been, and there's probably enough here to dream of him having some MLB ability in him. The 2020 draft hasn't always been kind for the Cubs, but extracting some value from former 5th-round pick Koen Moreno would be great. 🥶Jackson Ferris: 3 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 4 R, 4 ER: Over the course of the season, Jackson Ferris has done a really good job of avoiding blow-ups, but it was bound to happen. He's still working on being more consistent and avoiding walks, which got him in trouble this week. The learning process and these kinds of hiccups can be good building blocks. 🥶Jefferson Rojas: 19 wRC+, 42.1% K%, 0% BB%: Jefferson Rojas has featured so often in the "hot" category that, like many making uncharacteristic appearances on the "not" list, it's something that can be largely ignored as a blip on the radar. Lots of strikeouts is not something that Rojas has dealt with up until this point, and it hopefully will just be a rough, bad, no-good week for Jefferson.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-3-23
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Good to see him back on a mound. Strong finish and maybe he can get an early 2024 call. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-2-23
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I wonder if the Cubs extend Gray in the last month or keep him at 3IP. I'd like to see him go into the 4th by the end of the season, but we shall see. -
I came out of the 2022 draft, probably higher on Cade Horton than 95% of people. I'm blown away with how good he's been.
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Sadly, the Cubs system is good enough to where good months like Murray and Ramirez can go unlisted. I reserve "honorable mentions" not entirely for "guys who just missed" but for people I think might deserve their mention for a host of reasons; maybe it's a player returning from injury who it's nice to see, or someone who hit a lot of X. I went with PCA simply because it very well may be the last time he can get on this list, Mervis because I wanted to highlight both the HR total but the K% issues, and Caissie because he was the Hitter of the Month for last month. Really, I could mention like 10 guys, but I try to keep the articles concise enough to read in a short sitting!
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August is always a fun month for minor leaguers: the most recent draft class gets added to rosters, many players get mid-season promotions to accommodate them, and others make their final push to be a September call-up. Who in the Cubs system took full advantage of their month of August? Honorable Mentions: Owen Caissie (Tennessee Smokies, AA) 143 wRC+, 29.8% K%, 14.9% BB%, 3 HR, 5 2B Owen Caissie put together another strong month in August, on the heels of being named Cubs MiLB Hitter of the Month in July. You could argue he belongs a bit higher, but I'm going to continue to knock him for the rise in strikeouts again, as a strikeout rate under 30% is just too high. Matt Mervis, (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 116 wRC+, 29.6% K%, 14.9$ BB%, 8 HR, 4 2B Matt Mervis continues to crush AAA pitching, and it shouldn't be surprising. He hit eight home runs on the month, but the strikeout rate has been creeping up, as he sat just under 30%. Mervis remains in an awkward position in that he probably is too good to be in AAA, but the Cubs are not in a spot to give him a longer look. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 104 wRC+, 26.5% K%, 12% BB%, 4 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B Pete Crow-Armstrong got a bump to AAA, and I'd expect he'll end up in Chicago when the rosters expand at some point. That's two jumps in just over month of action, and that, at the very least, deserves an honorable mention. PCA is a wonderful prospect, with a floor that will almost assuredly make him a useful MLB player; be excited. Number 5: Jefferson Rojas (Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A) 112 wRC+, 25% K%, 8.3% BB%, 3 HR, 4 2B This is an 18 year old. I think it's incredibly important to remember, he's just 18, and he's having these kinds of months in a pretty difficult environment. Rojas has a rocket ship strapped to his back right now, and he's blasting up lists right now. Rojas has been on some "just-missed" top-100 lists for good reason. I'm fascinated to see how he continues down the road, but there's a good chance he's a special prospect just one year from today. Number 4: Luis Verdugo (South Bend, High-A) 189 wRC+, 8,9% K%, 12.5% BB%, 3 HR, 4 2B Hello there Luis Verdugo! Entering the month of August, Verdugo had done very little on the season, carrying a sub 90 wRC+ as a 22 year old in South Bend. Verdugo has popped up on some sleeper lists prior to the season, and it's great to see him jump like this. It's probably a little too late to suggest that he's fully "clicked" as a prospect, but it will give him a shot to finish the year strong in South Bend and enter 2023 as an appropriately aged prospect in Tennessee. File this name away for next season as I think he might continue to pop up on "sleeper lists". Number 3: Brian Kalmer (Myrtle Beach, Low-A) 189 wRC+, 23%K% 10% BB%, 7 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B Brian Kalmer, an 18th round selection in the 2023 draft, has made himself a quick name to watch in Myrtle Beach very quickly. Hitting seven home runs in a tough hitting environment will get you noticed very quickly and as of August 28th, Kalmer had the seventh best OPS of 2023 draft picks. The numbers he's put up are eye-popping, but they probably should be when we consider that Kalmer is already 23 years old and was a senior at Gonzaga. I'm hesitant to get too excited, as he's striking out around once per game (23 strikeouts in 22 games) which is a red flag for the future, but let's enjoy his output regardless. Just a little foreshadowing, but Kalmer won't be the only name from the 2023 draft on this list. Number 2: Alexander Canario (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 135 wRC+, 31.7% K%, 7.7% BB%, 7 HR, 10 2B Alexander Canario was absolutely on fire this month, hitting seven home runs, and nine doubles, for a whopping 16 extra base hits. This is important, as Canario is fresh off injuries that could have damaged his power output. The only knock on him this month is that the swing and miss has remained, as he's racked up an equally whopping 32 strikeouts over that span as well. I remain concerned that that he just won't hit the baseball enough at the next level, but players like Patrick Wisdom have proven that even with high strikeout totals, some offensive value can be had if you just hit the ever loving crap out of the baseball when you do hit the ball. This is the kind of month that puts you on the roster bubble for September, and already being a member of the 40-man, Canario will likely make his MLB debut shortly. Number 1: Matt Shaw (South Bend Cubs and Tennessee Smokies, High-A and AA) 180 wRC+, 13.1% K%, 4% BB%, 4 HR, 5 2B, 3 3B What a start for Matt Shaw in South Bend. I'm not sure it's possible to show you're just too good for a level any fast than Matt Shaw has done. There's polish to be had, still, as he hasn't be challenged enough to show how his hyper-aggressive nature will play against advanced pitching. He hit multiple home runs to the opposite field, he's stolen bases, he's made a ton of contact and he's already (reportedly) earned a spot in the Arizona Fall League. Matt Shaw is mirroring Nico Hoerner's path to the MLB and has squarely put himself on the radar to make his debut in 2024. This is back-to-back years that the Cubs have had amazing initial success with their draft picks.
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