Minor League Recap: Stretch Run for the Minors Begins

I never really tried to understand why so many late 20s MiLB pitchers float around - other than to fill MiLB rosters - until Kilian this year. If I were like…the A’s, Angels, or even Tigers since they’re pushing Turnbull out…he’d be interesting still. I’d be less interested in his performance this year than like the improvements in velo, overall mix, strength and conditioning, mechanics, good health, and general aptitude and feel considering where he was out of college. I missed all the HRs in that last start but saw a guy who keeps working on and improving his delivery and overall conditioning…A JAG by crude evaluation but one with good timing and luck finding an org taking on all kinds of projects at the time in a league and sport increasingly about optimize, burn, and turn rather than actual long term player development 

Kilian has a lot of the same issues in his build that other SP's we've previously discussed. He's a command over pitch guy, and he was able to out command hitters at lower levels. As he's progressed, and especially come to the MLB, he doesn't have a single pitch that's great. The fastball velocity isn't really all that new, it's more of a return than anything (he sat 96-98mph pretty consistently prior). It's just not a good fastball; velocity alone will be hit at the highest levels. He tinkered with a change up that failed and a spike curve that didn't really end up as a quality chase pitch. 

For him to really have any staying power, I think someone would have to get him to learn a new pitch. The Cubs have had a ton of pitching wins on that front, so while it's not impossible, if it's not happening here-and-now, it feels like it wont. I wish the best for Caleb, he's certainly struggled, worked hard to get back to what he was around June 2022, but I haven't personally seen much progress beyond that. I'd love nothing more than for him to develop a chase pitch, but I'm not confident it'll happen. His current ability fits into that traditional "up/down" org guy. I think he could be useful for a start here or there, maybe he finds run as a long relief option down the road, but he's pretty replacement level all things considered.

28 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Kilian has a lot of the same issues in his build that other SP's we've previously discussed. He's a command over pitch guy, and he was able to out command hitters at lower levels. As he's progressed, and especially come to the MLB, he doesn't have a single pitch that's great. The fastball velocity isn't really all that new, it's more of a return than anything (he sat 96-98mph pretty consistently prior). It's just not a good fastball; velocity alone will be hit at the highest levels. He tinkered with a change up that failed and a spike curve that didn't really end up as a quality chase pitch. 

For him to really have any staying power, I think someone would have to get him to learn a new pitch. The Cubs have had a ton of pitching wins on that front, so while it's not impossible, if it's not happening here-and-now, it feels like it wont. I wish the best for Caleb, he's certainly struggled, worked hard to get back to what he was around June 2022, but I haven't personally seen much progress beyond that. I'd love nothing more than for him to develop a chase pitch, but I'm not confident it'll happen.

I see this as an oversimplification:

- Command is good! It’s way more rare than stuff, much harder to improve or gain too, as is a healthy arm at 26

- He didn’t just beat up low minors hitters, which he kinda had to do to be relevant at all and was done in a way that’s more promising than most.  Also rocked socks in the AFL and hasn’t exactly embarrassed himself in Iowa

- I’d say more a new org would have to glue together the mix the Cubs have been working on - the three fastballs, the curves, the change - rather than put together a whole new act out of thin air 

Basically his work with the Cubs makes him more of a mass appeal guy than he wouldacouldashoulda been, gives him a fighting change in the wider league. *That’s* what an org building a true player development reputation - rather than the basic focus on ML optimize, burn, and turn - is ultimately aiming for to perpetually widen the pool of available talent 

Edit: Maybe the more apt comparison is guys like Justin Germano and Colin Rea? Its an organizational step up in talent when the today version of those guys is 94-96 with upper 90s in the backpocket 

I think the real story with Kilian is not so much that he's a command pitcher who didn't have enough stuff for higher levels(though that is not necessarily untrue), it's that he's a command pitcher *who lost his command*.  If anything he (and to some extent Taillon) are data points that pitch labbing guys is not a process without potential downsides, because even if his stuff is still not noteworthy he has added velo and tinkered with his pitches in other ways since the trade.

I don't want to make it seem bad to be a command guy, having command over your stuff is a good hurdle to clear, especially young. But I also think good command, at low levels can mask mediocre pitch mixes, and it's something to note. Kilian is someone who, I feel, had some pretty razor thin margins to succeed: his command was his calling card, and he was doing so on a very mediocre pitch mix. Even when his command was on point, looking back, he probably profiled as a BORP because there wasn't any pitch he threw that generated chase or profiled as more than MLB average (lots of 45's with maybe a 50 grade cut). Transmorgrified makes a solid point that highlights that too, in that he's not someone who could see any loss of command. 

I'm more than willing to admit I probably got too high on Kilian coming out of Arizona Fall League action than I should have. I remember, just a bit after the deadline, watching a bunch of his pitching from SF and being concerned with his breaking stuff and how he generated K's from it, and this should have been a bit more of a red flag than it was at the time. I grow myself. 

For his sake, I really still hope he can find something. I'm always on "team prospect" and wish they all succeed. But I also try to be realistic on their chances. As of today, my hopes for Kilian being above "org up/down" is not particularly high.

38 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the real story with Kilian is not so much that he's a command pitcher who didn't have enough stuff for higher levels(though that is not necessarily untrue), it's that he's a command pitcher *who lost his command*.  If anything he (and to some extent Taillon) are data points that pitch labbing guys is not a process without potential downsides, because even if his stuff is still not noteworthy he has added velo and tinkered with his pitches in other ways since the trade.

I actually see this as a strength and conditioning thing and why we can’t la la la age and the pandemic in SP and player development right now. Basically Kilian was doomed to hit some kind of wall as a college reliever convert trying to become a ML SP starting at age 24 in the low minors because of the pandemic. Edit: Goal 1 was to get out of the low minors ASAP which he did. The Cubs seem to have focused much more on strength and conditioning the past couple years than outright results, not really upping his innings totals from the draft season but changing whatever they could to get there, and because of his advanced age all that stuff more or less  had to happen in the upper minors to even be seen as a viable prospect let alone a literal brief MLer in ‘22-‘23

Oh doy…Part of why I see Kilian as pretty important/relevant to the story of Rebuild 2.0(:Pandemic?) is the vast majority of meaningful future college pitching prospects are going to have similar issues building up ML arm strength. We may be seeing with Jack Leiter that even a bloodline kid going #2 overall still has to get his weight way up and can look pretty ugly doing it, but also probably he’d rather look like a idiot and be healthy rather than get seriously hurt trying to get ahead of himself as a SP

48 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I actually see this as a strength and conditioning thing and why we can’t la la la age and the pandemic in SP and player development right now. Basically Kilian was doomed to hit some kind of wall as a college reliever convert trying to become a ML SP starting at age 24 in the low minors because of the pandemic. Edit: Goal 1 was to get out of the low minors ASAP which he did. The Cubs seem to have focused much more on strength and conditioning the past couple years than outright results, not really upping his innings totals from the draft season but changing whatever they could to get there, and because of his advanced age all that stuff more or less  had to happen in the upper minors to even be seen as a viable prospect let alone a literal brief MLer in ‘22-‘23

 

I could see something pandemic-related potentially being a lagging factor, but I'm not sure how much I can put on his buildup from draft year.  In 2019 he put up 96 innings in college(100% as an SP), in 2021 it was 100 IP, and 2022(when things went off the rails) was 118.  This year he's at 108 with a couple starts left, I'm not seeing an obvious point where we should have expected him to hit some conditioning wall, and if there is it's pandemic-related and not particularly applicable to others going forward.

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I could see something pandemic-related potentially being a lagging factor, but I'm not sure how much I can put on his buildup from draft year.  In 2019 he put up 96 innings in college(100% as an SP), in 2021 it was 100 IP, and 2022(when things went off the rails) was 118.  This year he's at 108 with a couple starts left, I'm not seeing an obvious point where we should have expected him to hit some conditioning wall, and if there is it's pandemic-related and not particularly applicable to others going forward.

2019: college hitter

2021: low minors hitters

2022-2023: AAA and ML hitters

Others moving forward are going to have to deal with more competition for playing time in the post-pandemic NCAA landscape and then pro roster crunches. That sets up similar strength and conditioning issues for arm and the whole body, more ambiguous role potential, lower workload potential, later starts etc. I'd look for the freak athletes in the mold of Lorenzen, but much potentially cromulent pitchers coming out of college are going to have wonky tracks like this may as well get acclimated now

I don’t get the connections here. Kilian was good when he was filling up the zone. He’s not when he’s throwing balls and can’t make it out of the third inning. He’s never really missed bats, but that’s not necessarily a problem if location is good. Like most kids, he needs to learn to throw good strikes and good balls. How many Cubs pitching prospects have we seen this with? Even good “stuff”guys  like Underwood and Maples can’t make it if they can’t throw strikes. 

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t get the connections here. Kilian was good when he was filling up the zone. He’s not when he’s throwing balls and can’t make it out of the third inning. He’s never really missed bats, but that’s not necessarily a problem if location is good. Like most kids, he needs to learn to throw good strikes and good balls. How many Cubs pitching prospects have we seen this with? Even good “stuff”guys  like Underwood and Maples can’t make it if they can’t throw strikes. 

I'm not really sure he's an MLB pitcher even when he's filling up the zone, personally. You're not wrong that players like Dillon Maples had all the stuff in the world but couldn't throw strikes and he's a version of the extreme. Caleb Kilian, when he's "right" is on the other side; I'm not sure he has a single pitch that's truly 50 grade (though there enough people who think he has a 50 grade cutter, so benefit of the doubt would give him one), so he can fill up the strike zone, but MLB hitters are going to hit it. Eventually, MLB hitters will BABIP you to death if you don't get them to swing and miss. It's really hard to succeed as an MLB pitcher if you cannot generate whiffs, much like it's very hard to succeed as an MLB pitcher if you don't throw strikes. It requires elite-command, and while I think Kilian is good there, I elite is very rare.

That's not to say we can't find anecdotal evidence to suggest otherwise; Miles Mikolas has a sub 6 K/9 and has been worth 2 wins, while Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader are among the league leaders for both fWAR and BB/9 for relievers. It's only to say, barring extremes, a balance of control and stuff is required. Kilian, in my humble opinion, probably just doesn't have the stuff even if his command is on point. MLB hitters are just really, really horsefeathers good.

Those "good balls" are really the issue here; he doesn't have anything that makes hitters expand their zone and chase, just like his fastball/cutter combo isn't a super great combination to generate whiffs in the zone. He's attempted to add two pitches since coming to Chicago, neither have had the desired effect to the date. Unless he can add something new to the arsenal (sweeper?) or really learn how to implement his change-up/curve-ball (the two pitches he's attempted to add) to generate those out-of-zone-whiffs, I'm not sure he'll transcend where he's at. 

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t get the connections here. 

The conversation got locked in on Kilian and the binary of good/bad, stuff/command guy because he and his track was specified, but the actual  commentary in my posts is more generally towards player development. Whether Kilian finds a niche or not here is less relevant to the future of Cubs than the gains he made in the pros to still have ML SP prospects. There’s tremendous Value to the org and league even getting that far as an 8th round pick, is a process worth repeating — and they’ll have to - moving forward