Jason Ross

Appreciate the kind words on the features. I agree, the system has come a long way. This isn't a system stocked with pitchability and safe players. We're very upside driven. We haven't even seen some of our biggest "tools" guys yet. Nazier Mule is coming off TJS and is a two way player (though almost assuredly a P long term) and I really like Jaxson Wiggins more than others (he's got a bit of similarities to how the Cubs got in on Horton on the "ground floor"), JP Wheat, as well, is another recent TJS guy the Cubs have. There's a few really fun pitchers the Cubs should start seeing.

I'm not sure it was out of character. The walk rates weren't bad in AA, but the work with the fastball was still needed. His fastball placement has always been a bit of a concern. I think AAA hitters were just better at not getting dominated by it like AA hitters were.

Yeah, I had said in another thread that it's probably really easy today to want to move someone like Brown over Wicks (who I really like!) because Wicks impacts the 2024 Cubs in a more concrete and obvious way. But the stuff is so good here that in a single years' time, if the control gets improved...singing a different song there wouldn't be very surprising. The upside is huge with Brown. It's just hard to be confident in it.

Ending his year with an injury, it'd be easy to forget the highlights of Ben Brown's 2023 season. Ben Brown's 2024 is one of the more interesting to explore. Will the tall hurler be in the Chicago Cubs rotation? Will he be a leverage reliever? Or will he be in another organization entirely? Image courtesy of Ben Brown 2023 Season Review Acquired from the Phillies for reliever David Robertson, Ben Brown wasn't a name many were familiar with at the 2022 deadline. With many upset at the Cubs' lack of movement on catcher Willson Contreras, the acquisition of Brown was somewhat under the radar. However, by the end of 2022, Brown had begun to turn heads. Finishing with 31 innings in his new organization in which Brown struck out over 12 per nine innings and limiting his walks, there were high expectations for him in 2023. Perhaps no prospect had a better start to the year than Brown. Over his first 30 innings, the righty would strike out an impressive 47 hitters, walking 11 and surrendering only two earned runs. His five-inning, ten-strikeout effort on May 10th, just his second turn on the mound in newly promoted Iowa, was one of his highlights of the season. At this point, it seemed not if but when Brown would be added to the Cubs' roster, with many seeing Brown as a potential impact leverage reliever to help the stretch run or even make a few starts. Enthusiasm would be halted on May 16th as Ben Brown showed flaws in his game. Giving up seven runs in just four innings, Brown's poor outing began to highlight a recurring theme for the pitcher: his spotty fastball command. Throughout the rest of the year, Brown's highlights were nothing short of spectacular, and his lowlights nothing short of dreadful. On May 27th and June 14th, Brown would strike out 11 hitters each game, limiting walks to just two. Following up each start, almost immediately, on June 2nd and June 25th, would see the right-handed fireballer surrendering six runs, as he struggled with walks in each outing (five in the first and three in less than a single inning pitched in the second). When Brown was on, his plus-plus curveball would be on feature. A big aspect of work the Cubs put in on Brown this year was separating his slider from his curveball. It wouldn't be the craziest thing for one to give Brown a 70 grade on his curveball. It's that good. The slider has come a long way, and these pitches generate ugly swings and misses out of the zone. When Brown was off, his fastball command would wane, both in and out of the zone. At times, you could tell Brown was forcing his fastball in the zone, resulting in poorly placed pitches and lots and lots of contact. After Ben Brown's start on July 30th, it was revealed that he had a lat strain and would end up missing the month of August. Coupled with the fastball command issues, Brown was never added to the Cubs 26-man roster. Upon returning, his command failed him fairly often, as he issued 11 free passes in just a little over six innings. It's hard to glean a lot from these innings, as Brown was not used as a traditional starter and only lasted one or two innings. There was likely rust in play here, and because of that, it's tough to tell the reasoning behind the walks. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It would be disappointing if Ben Brown didn't reach the majors in 2024. Even if his fastball command remains spotty, Brown has leverage reliever stuff that should help any bullpen in baseball. However, where Ben Brown ultimately ends up, in the rotation or the bullpen, will largely be determined by that fastball command. When Brown has his fastball, he is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type. Hitting the high 90s with those elite breaking balls, it's very difficult for opposing hitters to touch the man. When he doesn't, however, Brown is quite hittable. How the Cubs fix these issues and create a more consistent pitcher will be key to his development. However, there is a good chance that the lanky righty doesn't stay in the Cubs organization. The Cubs look likely to make at least one, or possibly more, trades to impact the parent team this offseason, and Ben Brown will likely be a name bandied about. As the Cubs are poised to keep high-end-prospect Cade Horton, others such as Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Brown will be names teams like the San Diego Padres should have interest in, for example, in a Juan Soto trade. It would be easy to see Brown as an acceptable loss because of how his 2023 ended, but we can't forget how it began. Brown has real upside, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him go on to have a career at the top of a rotation, regardless of the inherent risk. View full article

I think we are going to have to accept...there will be no leaks here. Also a good way to sus out those who have information and who don't. This likely will be very quiet until the very end.

Haha hey, fair play to be an optimistic person! If it helps, I also believe the Cubs are going to attempt to sign Ohtani to a real honest contract. I just don't believe Ben lol

Ben Devine does not feel like a legitimate source. He's NFL focused, seems to break no news, and keeps his post vague. His profile states "breaking Chicago news" but that hes a teacher. People who break news dont say they break news...they do it. As a fellow teacher, we dont break news (unless its breaking the news to my kids they have homework). I don't doubt the Cubs are putting together an offer based on what we have heard. I also don't doubt Ben Devine is hoping on sounding legit and is not a source worth monitoring.

Both he and Hector Gomez seem to do the same thing. Another way I look at Hector/Mike...they're Spanish speaking Bob Nightengales.

Mike is the Pepsi to Hector Gomez' Coca-Cola. He was banging the drum on the Cubs and Correa last offseason, and while I do think the Cubs courted him, the reality of how close it was seemed to be quite far from Mike Rodriguez's "reporting". Add in how quiet Ohtani's camp is rumored to want this to be, and this feels a bit like Mike trying to jump into this so he can bang a drum at the end of the day if the Cubs sign him.

Hey, I love the conversation. This is why I post on a forum to begin with. My partner does not give two shits about Jordan Wicks home run rate in Tennessee as a 23 year old and whether or not his changeup is going to generate more whiffs. It's either I have these awesome conversations with intelligent like minded individuals on this place or I'll eventually drive her insane debating whether or not Owen Caissie's swing is too loopy to succeed at the MLB level. Thanks for the debates!

Working great here in Lexington, KY, Including battling through my incredibly odd work filter.

I think we have to remember that Amaya basically hadn't played catcher for two years and then spent time as a backup a bunch. Not that he wasn't getting work on the side, but rust probably falls into play. Amaya did score pretty high in framing data, finishing 24th of 65 catchers on baseball savants leaderboards, much higher than Gomes. His blocking data wasn't great, sitting in the bottom third. His pop time was about mid-pack, as well as his arm strength. I think overall he looked like a pretty average defensive catcher last year. With more time back and an offseason of work, it shouldn't be shocking to see improvement, but even if this is what he is, he's fine back there, if not impressive.

I've thought that the Cubs would keep a Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastrobuni rotation at 3b, with Madrigal getting more PA's than the others for a bit. Wisdom would get curated PA's in situations that suit him (more like what we saw from him in the 2nd half. Where I think he can be more useful at the plate) and Mastro will get a bit of run too. At least until the Cubs either have a prospect who's ready to take over or the Cubs address the position at the deadline. Chapman is an interesting case. Batted ball data like barrel%, hard hit%. chase rate, exit velo...all ranked very high. His BABIP was a career high by a pretty decent margin, and his ISO was a career low. He hit a ton of doubles and his HR total fell off. He had a monster April and a Monster July but was basically worthless the rest of the year. I can't tell if I think he's unlucky to have so many doubles, if the power is just dipping a bit turning the HR's into doubles, if his batted ball data is the way to look at it, or to look at how ineffective he was for four months. Glad I don't have to decide on him and that it is someone else's job.

I think context matters and I want to bring a bit of context to Wicks' numbers. So if we're looking at his career MiLB HR/FB%, he's got excellent HR rates in both A+ and in AAA, where the "high" data point seems to be is in Tennessee. So just factual information here but: 1. In 2022, Wicks surrendered five home runs in AA over eight starts. Four of them came in his first two starts, and one of them came in his remaining six. 2. In 2022 Jordan Wicks surrendered nine home runs in 13 starts in AA. We can interpret this data how we want, but when I see a pitching giving up 90% of his home runs in 2022 in his first two starts at a new level, I don't see an issue; I see growth. I see a pitcher who got a new level of competition and learned. 2023 AA data needs to be given an asterisk for anyone in the Southern League. For Wicks, according to his father he "hated that ball". A command over stuff pitcher likely is going to struggle a bit when you mess with the ball. It isn't shocking then, to see him struggle more with missing spots in that case, which, resulted in higher HR totals, especially if a pitcher "hated" that ball. So while I think in most cases it'd be fair to say "you're just rationalizing data to fit a view point" here, I think the AAA data does a lot of talking here too. Once he returned to a normal, non pre-tacked baseball, the HR's went back down despite an increase in competition. If he was truly getting beat by talent, I think we'd expect to see, at the very least, the HR/FB% remain closer to what he saw in AA, not decline again. And I know you didn't say it was terrible, but I don't think I claimed you did, either. I do think that when we contextualize his blips, there seems to be rationalization for them. He's got the profile of someone who should be able to keep the ball in play. Even if he's got a 13-15% HR/FB%, if he's getting 47% ground balls, it means he's going to give up less fly balls, regardless. 15% of a smaller number equates to a lower number of home runs.

Interesting! I missed that one. Good to see he was in Chicago a bit.

I'd be fine with Morel for Alonso as long as they filled DH with Ohtani or Soto. Once they fill the DH spot, Morel is surplus to requirements. I struggle to see the Cubs using him at 1b, regardless of what positional flexibility they're giving him. So they might as well turn him into something they'll use. On it's own it's a bit weird. Coupled with other moves it makes sense.

This offseason is going to be nuts.

Did Imanaga make it to Chicago? I know Koji Uehara posted online he was in Chicago but hadn't seen Imanaga had made his way to the city.

Rogers posted an article today on a few things, and I think it's worth it to take note of a few things from a source : 1. The Cubs seem fairly confident that had the DH been in the NL in 2017 they would have won Ohtani 2. There seems to be a strange air of confidence coming from the Cubs on their current pursuit of Ohtani. Not that Rogers said that, just from the way it's written. Ohtani camp seemingly wants this quiet, so we'll have to read between the lines. Not saying I'm betting on a win here, just...odd? 3. Morel-for-Alonso tidbit dropped as something that could happen 4. Cody Bellinger does not appear to be coming back. Rogers states that the Cubs won't get into bidding wars for FAs (outside of Ohtani) and that one rival GM said "He's as good as gone".

He's listed at 5"7, 195, so I think Glasser is using his listed height. I haven't measured him, but I've read a few places that he could be as tall as 5"10 today and my guess is he weighs more than 197 today, too.

Is he a DH? Is he a catcher? If he hits so well, does it even matter? Next up in our exploration of the Cubs' top-20 prospect list is Moises Ballesteros, the Chicago Cubs' 2023 MiLB Hitter of the Year. Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK 2023 Season Review Moises Ballesteros, or "Big Mo," does not look like your typical professional baseball player. Listed as 5'7", 197 lbs on the Tennessee Smokies website, these numbers are outdated. Frankly, he looks more like he belongs on the Chicago Bears as a fullback than he does behind the plate of a Double-A baseball team. Looks can be deceiving, as Ballesteros has proved throughout his MiLB career to date, and he has earned every bit of being named the Cubs MiLB Hitter of the Year in 2023. Ballesteros has received aggressive promotions each year from the Cubs. 2022 saw the 19-year-old catcher spend more than a month in Myrtle Beach at the end of the season, posting a rather impressive 109 wRC+. Starting in 2023, "improvement" was the name of the game, as he lowered his strikeout rate to a miniscule 13%, increased his walk rate, ISO, batting average, on base, slugging, and finished with a 142 wRC+ in a further 56 games. Earning a promotion, "Big Mo" saw 56 games in South Bend that season. While the wRC+ was "only" a 128, this remains incredibly impressive for any catcher, let alone one who couldn't legally buy a beer. Showing impressive bat-to-ball skills, a mature approach allowed him to settle in comfortably despite the further increase in competition. While only hitting six home runs, he did swat 15 doubles during his time, suggesting that with maturity and growth, there is more power in the bat to come. For most players, a mid-season bump would be the only promotion earned, but for many of South Bend's best hitters (James Triantos, Kevin Alcantara, and Matt Shaw), they would get a chance to help AA Tennessee during their playoff run. Despite only posting a 40 wRC+ in 22 PAs, the time spent in Tennessee should suggest where Ballesteros will start in 2024, and he still showed that the impressive bat-to-ball skills were continuing to translate, striking out only three times in a limited run. Defensively, Ballesteros remains a work in progress, but there was some improvement along the way. His receiving skills are getting better and better. While still a bit off from the Major League team, Craig Counsell's hiring should be music to Mo, as Counsell's Brewers team has been the absolute best at taking mediocre framing catchers like Yasmani Grandal, Omar Narvaez and William Contreras and turning them into framing mavens. Counsell may bring over staff who can help the system squeeze the most out of all the catchers, top to bottom. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA The path ahead for Moises Ballesteros lies in Tennessee in 2024. Turning 21 midway through the season, he will be among the youngest hitters in Tennessee. I'm bullish on the bat, regardless of his level. Strong plate approaches are one of the best indicators an MiLB hitter can have for continued success, and you argue his plate approach is the best in the Cubs' system. If there's some room to grow offensively, it's turning those doubles into home runs. The questions for Mo will be the body and the defense. Alejandro Kirk is breaking molds with Toronto about what a catcher should and shouldn't look like, so there is some precedent for awkwardly shaped humans succeeding at that level. Thankfully, the bat is good enough here that a move to first basemen or as a designated hitter won't be the worst thing. This goes back to the offensive "grow"; however, the path to being a successful MLB 1B or DH is much more difficult, and those doubles will have to turn into home runs for that to be a viable path. Regardless, he's one of the most exciting hitters to follow in the Cubs system, and his outlook is quite bright. View full article

I don't think we should worry a lot about his HR/.FB% in under 35 innings yet. He gave up 4 home runs over his last two starts of the season, despite giving up just a single home run in his first 5. His worst start as a major leaguer was his last one, and it's likely that exhaustion was beginning to set in; he didn't make it out of the second. Wicks was on 6 days rest and hadn't gone 5+ innings all year prior to the MLB bump where he went 6+ three separate occasions. It shouldn't be shocking that his barrel% jumped massively his last two starts as well. That last start alone saw him equal his strikes to his ball, and the strikes he threw were not in good spots. I think the kid was probably running on some fumes. When I say he "should" keep the ball in the ballpark, I'm speaking of the repertoire and his batted ball data so far. He throws a heavy dose of fastballs on the hand, changeups at the knees and curveballs. His high GB% should translate to MLB action (GB% has high correlation from AAA to MLB) and his 46.8% GB% in a full season would mark him 10th in the MLB for qualified hitters if he maintained it all season (which, unless his command died, is around what we should expect). We need more savant data before we can make definitives, but in limited time he showed impressive abilities for a rookie to miss barrels, and limit hard hits too. There's still a decent spread on what we can expect him to become. But I think he's got the profile of a pitcher who likely limits HR's, hard hits, and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground. That's FIP-beater profile stuff. One of the pitchers who's 2023 profile was most similar to Wicks? Well, It's Mr, Kyle Hendricks with a .85, the second closest pitcher to Wicks. We need more data before he is one, but he's got the pre-reqs.

I tend to be pretty hesitant to rely much on xData, as there's plenty of weird tidbits and fiddly nonsense in them. That said, just the savant data alone, the quality of contact and the BABIP on Bellinger's 2 strike approach...I'm concerned with Bellinger moving forward. I think some of that is how he handles 2 strikes he's going to get some BABIP luck. But there's also too much for me to think it can continue. Extreme outlier data, like Belli's 2-strike success last year is generally very hard to repeat. Especially if the plan is for Bellinger to spend most of his contract at 1b, a position far more dependent on his bat than CF, I remain fairly luke warm on the prospect of a long term Bellinger contract. Not entirely out, mind you, but there are players I'd much prefer the Cubs spend their money on first.