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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    I think it's pretty unlikely the Cubs will trade PCA regardless of what they do with Bellinger. We'll see, but there hasn't been a single rumor concerning the Cubs moving PCA. Maybe it's something really have kept quiet, but there doesn't seem to be much out there to make you think they'll deal them. This is a team who talks consistently about not blocking prospects, loves defense (especially at premium positions) and loves players who run the bases well. I don't want to make it seem impossible, but it seems like a false equivilency to say that the options are "sign Bellinger and trade PCA" or "sign Montgomery". I think the Cubs are far more likely to sign Bellinger and keep PCA by having Bellinger take CF for 1-3 months and then moving him to 1b than trading PCA for an arm. We'll see what they do. I have no idea what they're going to do. And that's not saying it's not a valid option or the Cubs shouldn't consider trading him, only that I think the Cubs are very unlikely to do so. But I think there are more options than the ones you laid out, and why people are concerned about Bellinger, his position and his batted ball.
  2. Jason Ross
    Of course there's risk with any contract. With Bellinger him playing CF though is a primary reason you'd be interested in him for 8 years. His bat at 1b is iffy with his batted ball. So you're either talking the risk of him sticking at a premium position or the risk with his batted ball data and offense at a less premium position. It doesnt mean you dont sign him, but it does mean people are going to rightly point our these factors, too.
  3. Jason Ross
    I would say it's fair to question Bellinger long term in CF. He's 28, and we know defense does tend to fall off around the early 30s traditionally. It doesn't mean he will, but anyone questioning how long he will last there is pretty fair. It isn't like Bellinger hasn't had his fair share of injuries, even if they haven't been leg injuries, which likely adds questions here on his durability.
  4. Jason Ross
    Bobby Hill for the Cubs. Bellhorn for the Dodgers, for me. Both finished .3%. Not awful.
  5. Jason Ross
    This helped me greatly on Immaculate Grid today. Though...not the obvious box.
  6. Jason Ross
  7. Jason Ross
    Garver to Mariners. 2/$24m
  8. Jason Ross
    His xData is really good. His ISO got better from 2022 (when he had a 130 wRC+) and his xWOBA remained a very good .350. Awesome K:BB. His LA got a really big bump, too. His BABIP dropped .50 points, and his hard hit numbers got worse, however. His Savant page in 2022 was impressive as hell, and while there's plenty of excellent stuff in his 2023, there were those issues and his Savant page looks worse too. There's probably a small tweak needed to get him back to where he was. But there's also plenty underlying where you can see Vinnie P putting up 130 wRC+ with excellent plate approaches for the next 5 years of control. If you feel like you're capable of making that tweak, there aren't many DH/1b who have the combination of approach, power, and control that Pasquatino offers.
  9. Jason Ross
    Positives of living in Lexington: Bourbon is readily available. Negatives of living in Lexington: Kentucky is still Kentucky.
  10. Jason Ross
    Yeah, real bummer with how Trace does things. But it's only 90 days between purchases on specific brands. So if they drop Blantons on Thursday and Taylor Friday, you can get one of each. The rub is getting the right days! Each distillery has a few different rules. Make sure if you're doing Trace that you get tickets early. It's free but they fill up (so people can get drops). Sadly Turkey probably won't be up and running yet...they're recovering from a fire. Loved Woodford, really good tour.
  11. Jason Ross
    Speaking as both a Kentuckian and someone who was just at Trace yesterday...EH Taylor is a fine choice (sadly, missed their recent EH Taylor drop by one day. Yesterday was a Blanton's day...which...is good but I'd rather the Taylor, myself).
  12. Jason Ross
    I don't think he'll spend $200m on Bellinger, either. But I don't really know any team is going to spend $200m on Bellinger. Boras may want that, but that doesn't mean someone will. We aren't the only people concerned with the batted ball data, and if we know, teams know. I think the Cubs would spend $160m on Bellinger. And I think that's on the table as we wait this out.
  13. Jason Ross
    On the first end, we did, but I have a lot of questions about that. The Cubs did a lot of run scoring in blowout games, and how much that should truly count, I think, is debatable. Looking up and down the roster, I don't see a 90 win team last year like RD suggests. And PECTOA projections have the Cubs currently sitting at like 78 wins with the current roster; I don't think the Cubs have last 12 wins, for example. PECOTA has it's own issues, but general point. I think the amount the Cubs under performed is a bit over stated. On the second, I really don't know. I think people overrate how bad Ross was (I think he was as good/bad as any manager normally would be). I think people overstate how much Counsell will add at times. But I do think he'll make some difference. I'm just not confident enough to suggest a win-number. Even if it's just on the margins, it's a good thing.
  14. Jason Ross
    As much as I've been frustrated with the Cubs lack of agency...yeah of course. It might not be sexy, but trade for Bieber, add a Chapman/Bellinger, add a Hoskins/Belt, and a RP? The Cubs are paper division champions with the possibility of 4+ top-10 prospects (PCA, Horton, Brown, Caissie, Shaw are your most likely candidates) capable of helping at the MLB level at some point. Can add a tradable asset or two at the deadline, too. I've been vocal about my concerns with the Cubs. But I don't think that's a particularly crazy offseason for anyone to hope for and it probably puts the Cubs right on that doorstep. It's not even an offseason I love. But hey, the path is there.
  15. Jason Ross
    They don't. But the Ohtani contract is also, for all intents and purposes, one of a kind. We have only seen a handful of 10+ year contracts to begin with. And then at that, no one has ever deferred 97% of his contract to 10-20 years down the road. Unlike any other, this is a contract that looks one way, but acts very differently. Yamamoto will get paid more in year 1 of his contract than Ohtani will in the first 10 years of his. Granted, there's a reason for that, and Ohtani is easily the most marketable human being in the sport right now, so he'll be fine.
  16. Jason Ross
    They'll pay him $700m net. But because of deferrals and time, when we factor in how long he'll wait to get that money (including inflation) he'll get what would be the equivalent of $460m.
  17. Jason Ross
    Which is fair point. But they didn't have a waitlist before Ohtani and Yamamoto signed in LA. I was very careful in the post you quoted in that I said "we can debate the Cubs actions..." I think the Chicago Cubs have done themselves a disservice by acting the way they have. But the Cubs decided, on their own, to create this situation. If the Cubs want to put forward mediocre products year over year, they'll get mediocre attendance. Ohtani signing in LA didn't make the Cubs waitlist drop. The Cubs did that. If the Cubs put forward a team capable of winning 88+ games next year...I'm sure they'll be just fine.
  18. Jason Ross
    Sure. It's an imperfect study, I don't want to suggest it's flawless. But what's more imperfect? Looking at the correlation of actual data or just saying "well, ticket prices will go up because of spending because I think so?" This comes back a lot of the time to things like when we use defensive metrics when evaluating a baseball player. Just because something is imperfect, does not make it invalid in the face of a competing argument based on feelings. The cost of baseball games is likely, partially effected by spending. But it's not so heavily correlated it's a worry here. End result, Ohtani getting paid isn't a bad thing, nor does it matter to me. Glad the best baseball player we've ever seen in our life got paid like it.
  19. Jason Ross
    Which is fair, and your choice, I don't want to suggest your individual choice can't be effected. But here's the thing: someone else will buy those tickets so while I think your personal agency here matters, it's an anecdote, not a trend.I don't think baseball will have any long term effects. Now, we can debate how the Cubs actions will effect things, but as long as the Cubs put out a team who can win 85 games...they'll be fine. And baseball itself will be fine. If other teams take the John Fisher route with Oakland...well things will be bad. But they were doing that before Ohtani and Yamamoto anyways.
  20. Jason Ross
  21. Jason Ross
    To the first point: You can suggest whatever you want about spending. The data suggests player contracts and team ticket prices remain independent of each other. There's just nothing to suggest the two are connected outside of what you want to believe. You can certainly have your belief, but data says something else. I'll side with the data. To the second point: who gives a horsefeathers? I don't. As stated, data suggests ticket prices won't go up. If the Dodgers can afford this kind of a deal, other teams can too. Let Ohtani get paid. Good for Ohtani. Good for the Dodgers.
  22. Jason Ross
    That's not a bad thing. Baseball players getting paid more is a good thing for baseball. And before we go into the economics of attending baseball games ("but games and tickets will be more expensive"), plenty of studies have shown that spending on payroll has little effect on the cost of a baseball game and that these two are largely independent of each other.
  23. Jason Ross
    We're talking about baseball. The owners, the contract, the structure of professional baseball. We're not talking about a baseball game but it's December 22nd, there isn't a baseball game. If this isn't "talking about baseball" than every post between October and April shouldn't count, either. But I'm not interested in arguing semantics as to what talking about "baseball" is. The point is, this won't ruin anything. Baseball will continue steaming ahead the same way it was before.
  24. Jason Ross
    I'll say this: I don't think the Dodgers have so much more in their war chest that they're the only team capable of signing Yamamoto. Which is why I chose to say a "bit". It' a little underselling, but at the same time, I think more teams should be acting the way the Dodgers are, too.
  25. Jason Ross
    On the topic of "is this bad for baseball" I'll say "nope, not at all". This isn't the first team to flex financial muscle and become the defacto best team (the 90's Yankees were essentially this same thing). The other 29 fanbases now have a collective "bad guy" to root against. The Dodgers in the playoffs will bring in huge audiences as everyone wants to see someone knock them off. And when some team likely does (not because they're better, but the reality is the field wins more than a single team) everyone will celebrate that team across the sport. What the Mets did last year didn't ruin baseball. The Dodgers this year won't ruin baseball. And it's bringing conversation. Look at what we're doing...it's before 10am on the east coast, the Cubs still haven't signed a single 40-man-guy and we're having baseball discourse. This isn't unique to us either, I'm sure. Red Sox forums, Mets forums, probably all doing the same. And once OD roles around, we'll all forget and get into Cub mode anyways. Baseball will be fine. Good for the Dodgers. Wish the Cubs were more like the Dodgers.
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