Jason Ross

We have just competed the month of August, the dog days one might say. The temperatures are high and player energy can be very low. But find out below which Cubs hitting prospects stayed strong throughout the month. Image courtesy of Lindsay Coward, Tennessee Smokies August is always a fun month for minor leaguers: the most recent draft class gets added to rosters, many players get mid-season promotions to accommodate them, and others make their final push to be a September call-up. Who in the Cubs system took full advantage of their month of August? Honorable Mentions: Owen Caissie (Tennessee Smokies, AA) 143 wRC+, 29.8% K%, 14.9% BB%, 3 HR, 5 2B Owen Caissie put together another strong month in August, on the heels of being named Cubs MiLB Hitter of the Month in July. You could argue he belongs a bit higher, but I'm going to continue to knock him for the rise in strikeouts again, as a strikeout rate under 30% is just too high. Matt Mervis, (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 116 wRC+, 29.6% K%, 14.9$ BB%, 8 HR, 4 2B Matt Mervis continues to crush AAA pitching, and it shouldn't be surprising. He hit eight home runs on the month, but the strikeout rate has been creeping up, as he sat just under 30%. Mervis remains in an awkward position in that he probably is too good to be in AAA, but the Cubs are not in a spot to give him a longer look. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 104 wRC+, 26.5% K%, 12% BB%, 4 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B Pete Crow-Armstrong got a bump to AAA, and I'd expect he'll end up in Chicago when the rosters expand at some point. That's two jumps in just over month of action, and that, at the very least, deserves an honorable mention. PCA is a wonderful prospect, with a floor that will almost assuredly make him a useful MLB player; be excited. Number 5: Jefferson Rojas (Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A) 112 wRC+, 25% K%, 8.3% BB%, 3 HR, 4 2B This is an 18 year old. I think it's incredibly important to remember, he's just 18, and he's having these kinds of months in a pretty difficult environment. Rojas has a rocket ship strapped to his back right now, and he's blasting up lists right now. Rojas has been on some "just-missed" top-100 lists for good reason. I'm fascinated to see how he continues down the road, but there's a good chance he's a special prospect just one year from today. Number 4: Luis Verdugo (South Bend, High-A) 189 wRC+, 8,9% K%, 12.5% BB%, 3 HR, 4 2B Hello there Luis Verdugo! Entering the month of August, Verdugo had done very little on the season, carrying a sub 90 wRC+ as a 22 year old in South Bend. Verdugo has popped up on some sleeper lists prior to the season, and it's great to see him jump like this. It's probably a little too late to suggest that he's fully "clicked" as a prospect, but it will give him a shot to finish the year strong in South Bend and enter 2023 as an appropriately aged prospect in Tennessee. File this name away for next season as I think he might continue to pop up on "sleeper lists". Number 3: Brian Kalmer (Myrtle Beach, Low-A) 189 wRC+, 23%K% 10% BB%, 7 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B Brian Kalmer, an 18th round selection in the 2023 draft, has made himself a quick name to watch in Myrtle Beach very quickly. Hitting seven home runs in a tough hitting environment will get you noticed very quickly and as of August 28th, Kalmer had the seventh best OPS of 2023 draft picks. The numbers he's put up are eye-popping, but they probably should be when we consider that Kalmer is already 23 years old and was a senior at Gonzaga. I'm hesitant to get too excited, as he's striking out around once per game (23 strikeouts in 22 games) which is a red flag for the future, but let's enjoy his output regardless. Just a little foreshadowing, but Kalmer won't be the only name from the 2023 draft on this list. Number 2: Alexander Canario (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 135 wRC+, 31.7% K%, 7.7% BB%, 7 HR, 10 2B Alexander Canario was absolutely on fire this month, hitting seven home runs, and nine doubles, for a whopping 16 extra base hits. This is important, as Canario is fresh off injuries that could have damaged his power output. The only knock on him this month is that the swing and miss has remained, as he's racked up an equally whopping 32 strikeouts over that span as well. I remain concerned that that he just won't hit the baseball enough at the next level, but players like Patrick Wisdom have proven that even with high strikeout totals, some offensive value can be had if you just hit the ever loving crap out of the baseball when you do hit the ball. This is the kind of month that puts you on the roster bubble for September, and already being a member of the 40-man, Canario will likely make his MLB debut shortly. Number 1: Matt Shaw (South Bend Cubs and Tennessee Smokies, High-A and AA) 180 wRC+, 13.1% K%, 4% BB%, 4 HR, 5 2B, 3 3B What a start for Matt Shaw in South Bend. I'm not sure it's possible to show you're just too good for a level any fast than Matt Shaw has done. There's polish to be had, still, as he hasn't be challenged enough to show how his hyper-aggressive nature will play against advanced pitching. He hit multiple home runs to the opposite field, he's stolen bases, he's made a ton of contact and he's already (reportedly) earned a spot in the Arizona Fall League. Matt Shaw is mirroring Nico Hoerner's path to the MLB and has squarely put himself on the radar to make his debut in 2024. This is back-to-back years that the Cubs have had amazing initial success with their draft picks. View full article

It still feels a little like the twilight zone when speaking about the Cubs and their pitching developments. More so for the month of August, as one of the Cubs best prospects was hurt, and there were still tons of pitchers who had great months. But who had the greatest month of them all? Which of the Cubs vaunted pitching prospects claimed Starting Pitcher of the Month? Image courtesy of Lindsay Coward, Tennessee Smokies Honorable Mentions: Shane Greene (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 2.16 ERA, 10.8 K/9 : Shane Green is an MLB veteran, so he should be able to carve up AAA in theory, but he's also working on reinventing himself on the mound as the sun sets on his career. He's pitched well enough that he will almost assuredly pitch with the Cubs in the month of September, either as an opener or as a veteran in the bullpen. Brody McCullough, (South Bend Cubs, High-A) 2.16 ERA, 8.1 K/9: Brody McCullough has been a fun find in the 2022 draft for the Cubs out of the 10th round. Initially I thought he would be destined for the bullpen, but he's managed to stick as a starting pitching option through the season. South Bend hasn't been eliminated at the time of writing this article, but will be shortly. This impacts someone like McCullough, as Tennessee's season will extend into the playoffs, and they could use some arms. Expect to see him called up for a playoff push in Tennessee with how well he's pitched. Luis Rujano (Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A) 2.25 ERA, 8.4 K/9: Another 2022 draftee, Luis Rujano has really impressed me this year. The book on Rujano on draft day was that of a pitcher who had a fastball but little-to-nothing-else. Seemingly a quick learner, Rujano has already hit the ground running in Myrtle Beach, striking out nearly a hitter per inning, and having his walk total trend down. Number 5: Koen Moreno (Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A) 2.04 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 11.7 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 Koen Moreno has taken a bit longer to get his feet under him as a prospect, but August marks a potential turning point in his career for a host of reasons. Koen Moreno struck out over a hitter per inning in August, but more importantly, saw his leash on the mound get longer, as threw four innings in a start on the 15th, and most recently, went five innings on the 29th. He's certainly old for Myrtle Beach at the age of 22, but he finally looks healthy, and maybe there's a player here down the road. Number 4: Jordan Wicks (Iowa Cubs, AAA) 2.45 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9: Jordan Wicks clocks in at number 4 on this list, partly because he had a great month, but also partly because I want to reward him for his big promotion. Wicks had wonderful control this month in Iowa, walking only four compared to 15 strikeouts. None of this even takes into his account his scintillating MLB debut, in which he struck out nine in just five innings. It will be interesting to see how he manages pitching on five days of rest, if he can force his way into the MLB playoff rotation (if there is an MLB playoff rotation) and what he will do against teams other than the scuffling Pirates, but it was certainly a month to remember for Jordan Wicks. Number 3: Caleb Kilian (Iowa Cubs, AAA): I'm still not entirely sure if Caleb Kilian has enough juice to pitch against MLB hitters, but it's good to see him get his footing back in Iowa. The fastball velocity has been up for a bit, and he's at least looking more like the guy he was early in 2022. It was really hard to watch someone who's calling card was throwing strikes looking flabbergasted on the mound and unable to find the strike zone. In the month of Iowa, Kilian walked just two hitters in 16+ innings. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kilian earn a spot start in September if an injury happens, or possibly even added to the bullpen. Number 2: Jackson Ferris (Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A) Jackson Ferris really could have won this award and I hemmed and hawed over this one for a while until settling on the eventual winner. Ferris has been as good as he could have been this season, and he's ending the season the right way. Ferris' stuff is just too good for Myrtle Beach today, as he continues to strikeout hitters at will. If there's one thing that ultimately held him back from being this month's Starting Pitcher of the Month, it's the walks. Ferris still walked nine hitters in 16 innings on the mound and that will have to get polished up as he moves up. With that said, he was drafted out of prep school, and this is his first season, so it's okay to just enjoy the ride. Number 1: Cade Horton (Tennessee Smokies, AA) Cade Horton is a bad man. I'll expand on that, but that's the simple way of explaining his month. Even when he struggles for a hot minute, Horton still comes out smelling like roses. Case in point; his most recent start. Horton seemed to struggle a bit to start the second inning, he surrendered a two hits to start the inning, then followed those hits with an iffy past ball, resulting in a run scoring on the hits, and a runner on third with no outs. He finished the inning with a strikeout, a ground out (scoring another run) and a strikeout. The only other hit he allowed the rest of the game was to super-prospect Jackson Chourio, After Chourio, not a single base runner reached base, and finished the night with seven strikeouts, one walk, and giving up two earned runs in five innings. Cade Horton is steamrolling his way to Chicago, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him up as soon as June, 2024. Congratulations to Cade Horton. How do you feel about our rankings? How would you rank them? View full article

Looks like Wicks pitched relatively well again. Had to miss it because of work, glad he's continuing on fairly strong.

Not sure Canario will find a lot of initial success, but I'm really excited to see him regardless. There's lightning in a bottle type stuff in his bat.

I actually think the Cubs will avoid having those players play more. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think they'll try to hide some of these guys a bit more. A strong AFL performance may convince a team to snag them up, versus being more likely to sneak them through the draft.

Credit for them for using their space in the order.

Nope. It's just one order. Put in as many claims as you want, the order only changes if teams W-L record changes. Claims don't move the order.

Oh the boo was that they didn't make their way to Chicago (not that I expected it)...not about Cleveland. Cleveland getting them was the "yay" part. That's a best-case-Cubs-scenario, really, if we didn't get them. Good bet for Cleveland...just money, might as well.

Booo. But not direct competition...so yay.

I don't hate Luis Devers, but he falls in a similar category as someone who I think has one good pitch (his changeup) but outside of that has a host of 45/50 pitches with 50 command who basically out-commanded hitters at lower levels. This year he got hurt and it just hasn't worked for him since then. I'm on the fence about him, as I still think there's an outside chance his one good pitch+command could maybe get you a bottom of the rotation arm, but think he's probably in that same group of "up/down org" guys if he can get right, but if he's never going to get healthy enough than it just won't happen. I'll be happy if he can find it again, wouldn't be shocked if he can't (that's pitchers for ya).

I think he got some attention post trade in the Cubs system, certainly. Probably also important to note that the Rangers system around that time was pretty highly regarded, while winning the Cubs MiLB SP of the Year was a much lower bar to clear (also probably worth noting, MiLB pitcher of the year doesn't always mean great prospect at the next level. Sometimes the guys who win these awards aren't great prospects, but guys who had great years, but also fair to point out Hendricks won that award). So a probably a little of column A in that it was hard to stand out in the Rangers system and a bit of column B that the Cubs system was much easier for him to stand out. Regardless of that, I'm happy to have him. He's been a great guy to have in the organization the last decade.

Kyle Hendricks was not a well regarded prospect. His numbers looked good but no one really believed his high 80's fastball was ever going to play at the MLB level. Whether or not it would be how the 2012 Cubs would describe it, most felt as though Hendricks was nothing more than a throw-in to Villanueva. Source

Well, Marge Schott hasn't been able to approve anything for about 20 years now! The Reds penny pinch with the best of them regardless of Schott's involvement or not with the Reds, but I would think the Reds will very likely throw a waiver claim in on someone like Giolito. $1.9m is pretty cheap for the Reds in the overall scheme of things and the Reds have basically every contract off the books sans Hunter Greene next year. No better way to shrug your shoulders and say "well we tried" than a one month gamble so that they can pinch their precious pennies in FA next year (many around here are very much hopeful they will be active in the winter with how little money they are spending and the backlash will probably be pretty widespread when they dont). I'd be more than happy to see them pass on Gio, though, because their pitching is just atrocious right now.

Totally a fair point! I honestly think the issues with Gallardo go past the data that we have and goes to things like his ceiling with his pitch mix. The best thing about Gallardo is that for a 22 year old (he turns 22 in just a few days), he's pretty polished. His command is better than that of an A+ pitcher and it's probably better than most AA pitchers. I also think his level of polish works against him because I think there's a limited amount of growth between here and what I expect him to be able to achieve. His velocity has seen some gains, but I haven't seen anything to suggest the older reports of a repertoire of 45/50-grade pitches has really changed much (though at seasons end and some re-scouting may change that and it'd be fair to say that's on the table; guys like Zumach and Hess and Smith have access to scouting information and may report that his pitches have improved in run/spin/shape, etc which would clearly change a pitches grade). I think a lot of the issues Killian has had getting over the hump will be the same type of issues Gallardo (Luis Devers is another name in this group) will face; they're able to command middling stuff past MiLB hitters, but they can't out command MLB hitters with that same middling stuff. I'd rather players have good numbers than not, and this isn't to dissuade you from being a Gallardo guy, either, just explaining where I'd put him and why. I'll be more than happy to look back on this post in 2 years and laugh at my stupidity if he proves me wrong as I'd rather be wrong about a prospect I doubt than be right (I'll always root against my opinions if it helps the Cubs).

Yep. While I understand what the Angels are doing remains "legal" in the MLB rulebook, it's pretty ****** overall. The Angels get to play "I'm a cheap-ass" roulette hoping other teams bail them out of luxury tax penalties they created for themselves, while teams like the Reds and the Marlins who played "I'm a cheap-ass" at the deadline when it came to trading prospects, get to win roulette for having a worse record and atoning for their mistakes, by paying nothing but a single month's worth of salary. For people like Lucas Giolito, Randall Grichuk, Reynoldo Lopez, it's great, and from a labor standpoint there's some merit here of guys getting another chance to join a winning team, but from a league standpoint, this is kind of horsefeathers.

I am not a Richard Gallardo fan. I think upside, you're looking at up/down organizational depth. With some luck, maybe you get a decent Adrian Simpson run (not saying he's Adrian Simpson-esque in how he goes about it) or something in there for a 2nd division team. None of that would be horrendous or awful when it comes to an outcome; that's useful, but I don't see an MLB arm with staying power. The velocity jump is somewhat interesting, but nothing he throws really looks like anything more than a 40 or a 45 grade pitch to me. So you've got a lot of average-replacement level pitches with a 50 or maybe a 55 level command. Guys like this generally do well in the lower levels where strike-throwing is more important. As they move up to better competition, swing and miss and chase becomes necessary and I just don't see it with Gallardo. I hope he surprises me and there's something more. But in terms of "guys I like" he probably behind a good handful of names, and a few of those names are players who have had statistically worse seasons, but have upside pitch mixes that could come together. To each their own in the end; anyone who is a Gallardo fan isn't entirely alone on an island, but he's not someone I have high hopes for myself.

Nope. They can claim until their hearts desire.

Don't care how we get it. Ws are Ws.

For anyone unaware of what the Angels are doing here; they're desperately trying to (and will succeed, these players will be claimed) get under the LT. When most of these players get claimed, they will achieve that goal. The reason behind this is because they want to improve their compensation for losing Ohtani; they will get a 2nd round comp pick instead of 4th by successfully getting under the LT.

Nope. Since 2019, revocable is gone. These players will be claimed (and then subsequently awarded to that team) or released.

Take it for what it's worth; Reddit poster claims he's ITK and that PCA has a place in Chicago and will be called up shortly. I think it's just the case of someone trying to act ITK and reading pretty basic tea leaves, but hey, worth a pass on.

Great start.

Based on the recent past, I expect the Cubs to prioritize: 1. Players who have missed time with injury (Canario) 2. Hitters they believe are going to be MLB ready sometime next season (Shaw maybe McGeary?) 3. College hitters who were drafted late (Kalmer/Long?) who they want to see what they have Last year we saw players like Davis, Mervis and Murray get the call to AFL, and I think we'll see similar. I doubt any of the fun arms see any AFL action, the Cubs bubble wrap their pitchers like no other.

Yeah, I'm a bit Rojas fan. There's some real helium behind him, and there's a world where he's a top-50 prospect in 365 days.