Jason Ross

Yeah, Hoskins would be an interesting stop-gap at 1b this offseason. I'd like the Cubs at some point to stop with the constant barrage of stop-gaps/reclamations and start to settle in a bit more at some positions, but I'm also fine with the Cubs playing stop-gap at 1b if it means they go out and bring in some more long-term options (or a Juan Soto with the hope that they extend him long term) via trade.

If you all need a fun baseball savant page, might I interest you in Brenton Doyle, winner of the gold glove (rightfully so) in the NL for the CF position. Doyle finished with a +19 DRS in CF, and a +16 in OAA. He also finished dead last in the league with a 43 wRC+ and a 35% K%. His Baseball Savant page is absolutely wild.

I can't remember the documentary/video and it was a while ago, but I had watched something about gold glove voting/award voting (along these lines) and basically there are people who barely watch these guys who vote and pick mainly on reputation. Now, that was a handful of years ago, so I'm not entirely sure that's the way it is so much any more. Probably helped Happ that last year he won the GG in winning this year. Thankfully, with the addition of things like baseball savant, and DRS, I think most of the voting (or at least the nomination process) is set up that the 3 (or so) best fielders get nominated, which should stop from egregious gold glove winners of past. But yeah, I too wonder how these things go down. We see some of the ridiculous voting when it comes to HoF every year.

Yeah, and realistically, he probably shouldn't have won this year. NL LF'ers were pretty bad as a whole, as only three finished with +DRS. Happ's DRS was tied with Reynolds for 2nd at a +2 behind Eddie Rosario's +3. Happ's OAA was significantly worse than Rosario's but made up for it with a much better arm. Splitting the difference, Rosario was probably the wee-better choice. The reality is, any of the AL runner-ups would have been a more deserving winner if they were in the NL. With that said, congrats to Happ, Swanson and Hoerner. All put in significant work this year, enjoy the night!

A strange and winding route through life and baseball brought BJ Murray to the Chicago Cubs. Murray's MLB journey may still have a few twists and turns left. Where does Murray fit into the Cubs' long-term plans? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review B.J. Murray entered the 2023 season as a prospect who had already shown that perhaps MLB teams slept on the Bahamian in the 2021 draft. A 15th-round selection out of Florida Atlantic University, Murray had a great season in two stops, Myrtle Beach and South Bend, in 2022. Posting a wRC+ over 150 in the former and nearly 130 in the latter, Murray showed a strong nose for contact and approach. If there was some polish to put on Murray, it was the lack of game power shown, hitting eight home runs over the course of roughly 90 games. Murray was a college draftee, and you'd have hoped someone like him would have put up a few more home runs on paper. The 2022 season was good enough that BJ Murray was even given a roster spot on the Bahamian World Baseball Classic. 2023 B.J., however, took that personally once he reached Tennessee this year. Murray earned the AA promotion and started the season well, but he wasn't blowing anyone away with his first few months. Through June 30th. Murray had posted a solid, if unspectacular, wRC+ of 118 in Tennessee with a K-rate over 25%. In a reoccurring theme about Tennessee players, it's important to note that during this period, Tennessee and the Southern League were experimenting with a new pre-tacked baseball. The result was a league-wide increase of almost 3% in strikeout rates, and baseballs that behaved as if they were whiffle balls. Once the pre-tacked ball was shelved, however, Murray came to life. From July 1st through the rest of the season. Murray lowered his K% to 22.1% (or about 3%, the league average K% jump, mind you) and posted a .221 ISO with improved power, which was good for a 139 wRC+. Basically, after the baseball was switched, Murray turned into one of the better hitters in Tennessee and the Southern League in general. Much like any hitter, there were spurts up and down, but it was a nice second half for the young third baseman. Murray's season was good enough to represent the Chicago Cubs mid-season at the Future game alongside a pretty special prospect named Pete Crow-Armstrong. Overall, it's hard to find many complaints about how the season finished for Murray. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's a foregone conclusion that Murray will start in Iowa in 2024. He has done everything he needed to Tennessee. Murray, as well, will be 24 years old, so he'll be age-appropriate for Iowa as well. What interests me about Murray is how the Cubs handle him positionally. Looking at the Cubs as an organization, first base and third base are the two positions where the Cubs have open paths for early prospect contribution. Murray has spent most of his career at third base and it will be interesting to follow how the Cubs handle him defensively because Matt Shaw will also be around the same level as Murray, and many assume Shaw (the more highly-rated prospect by the industry) will have a future at that position as well. So where does Murray go? Is he an option at first base? Matt Mervis may get another shot at the MLB level at position, which would open up Murray to playing first at Iowa. Is Murray the preferred option internally at third? In that case, do the Cubs continue playing Shaw in the middle infield, two positions locked down at the parent club for the foreseeable future? Murray hasn't been known for his glove to date, so there are many things on the table. I can also see him used as trade bait this offseason if the Cubs decide to make some splashy moves and prefer Matt Shaw as the third baseman of the future over Murray; if you're a team making a trade with the Cubs, Murray could offer interesting value as a second trade piece who hit well last year in AA and probably isn't too far off. Murray could find himself on an MLB roster mid-season next year if things break right for him, either with the Cubs or elsewhere. Being 24 and starting in Iowa, especially without any current entrenched player at his historic position, Murray could provide a bat for the Cubs if he gets off to a hot start, and the Cubs must address the position meaningfully. He could also find himself on the path as a DH or first baseman A conservative ETA is a 2024 September call-up, but a more aggressive timeline could see him getting PAs in Chicago (or another organization) by June 15th. Whether he's traded to get MLB-ready players or adding value to the Cubs himself, this represents another big scouting win for the Cubs. View full article

As of today, the recent reports on Hendricks are that the Cubs won't explore extension until much later in the offseason. I'd expect him back on 1/$16m.

I'm on the fence. Stroman is a legitimately good SP. It gives the Cubs flexibility, but they have to make something of it, and there's no guarantee they will be able to (not a complaint as it always takes 2 to dance). So I'll hold off judgement until I see how the Cubs come out on the other end. "Bird in the hand..." type thing.

Stroman has officially opted OUT Per Heyman

I think his swing is built for LA and the reality is swings built for LA usually equal swings that struggle with velocity. If you're trying to get a bit under the ball, the higher the ball gets, the harder it is to get under, if that makes sense. So I don't think it has to be a Happ thing for PCA. Honestly, like, Javier Baez-lite without the "swing and the slider that was 20 feet over there" is what I'd be looking for. PCA has a strong bat to ball tool, with a hyper aggressive swing approach (though not like Baez). So I think you're hoping for someone who gets into better counts early, or learns to balance being aggressive early in counts while not being stupid in counts. He's also going to beat out a lot of those balls he tops because of his conservative 70 grade speed which should give him a really high BABIP floor. So I'm envisioning someone who's floor is like a Kevin Kiermaier type of like a .240/.290/.400 with 15-20 home runs and elite defense/base running. If you iron out the approach a bit, get him into good accounts, maybe a .280/.320/.450 guy. That guy is a borderline star. Immature feels like a decent word for him, but I prefer overconfident. I think he's a 21 year old kid who doesn't know what he doesn't know and he needed his ass thoroughly kicked. You can see those things in how he plays and it can make him fearless (you can see this in how he plays defense. He's just so fearless). He needed a bit of humbling at the plate, which is his biggest flaw. I'm excited it happened to him. Overconfident people can take that ass beating two ways; you put your head down and you pout about it, or you get pissed and refuse to feel that away again. I'm hoping very much PCA is the latter.

At this stage, I kind of would be surprised by a Bellinger resign. As a Boras client, I expect he'll wait out the offseason, and I'm not sure the Cubs will wait (with Soto, Alonso available via trade, and as well as the reports from Rogers that the Cubs will be more likely to go into the trade market than FA) that long. I'm a bit on the fence with a Bellinger extension, personally. Paying a premium for a CF to play 1b isn't really the best concept (though the Cubs should be able to afford that) and his BABIP with 2 strikes was basically impossible to repeat. With that said, especially on the 2nd part, he changed his approach so I think he'll be a decent-to-good-2-strike guy. I'm not entirely against it, just that I think it feels like something that I feel is unlikely today. One thing I agree with: PCA needed to get his ass handed to him at a level for a minute. I think his swing will always be an issue getting at high fastballs and I'm not sure they'll really work on that much overall (it was the Cubs who built this swing). What I think he'll need to work on is that approach of his. Pitch recognition, jumping on the right pitches, and avoiding getting into spaces where he can get beat up there often. Perhaps a slight change in 2-strike approach like we saw with Rizzo (like you mentioned!).

Acquired from the Oakland Athletics for Andrew Chafin, Daniel Palencia has made a name hitting triple digits on the gun and made his MLB debut. Can Daniel Palencia make enough waves to be an important part of the 2024 Cubs? 2023 Season Review Daniel Palencia's 2023 is similar to our #16 ranked prospect, Luke Little. Much like Little, Palencia entered the 2023 season as a member of the starting rotation. Making five starts in Tennessee, Palencia had some ups and downs in his first 15 innings. While being able to hit triple digits on the gun, Daniel struggled with walks, and most of his starts would last three or fewer innings. May 5th would mark his last start and appearance in Tennessee, as the Cubs would shift Palencia to the bullpen and immediately call him up to Iowa. The change to the bullpen helped push Palencia's timetable well ahead of where it was. Even with some control issues, a reliever who can easily hit 100mph is useful in many teams' bullpens. While Palencia's ERA in Iowa would sit just south of 8.00, the stuff Palencia showed and improving accuracy made Palencia attractive for a mid-season callup. He took off in mid-June, striking out 11 hitters to only two walks over his final six innings. This would lead to his call-up to the Chicago Cubs in early July. Looking at Palencia's overall numbers, I think it would be fair to be a little "whelmed" by the data in his first taste of the major leagues. Palencia saw 28 innings over 27 appearances, being used more and more by the end of the season. Struggling, especially at first, his first 11 innings were rough, to say the least. Striking out less than a hitter per inning and walking 6 per 9/IP, Palencia was wild and struggled with strike-throwing. Many of the feelings surrounding Palencia come with these first 11 innings playing a big part because, over his last 17 1/3 innings, Palencia struck out 11 per 9/IP, cut his walk rate in half, and posted a stellar 3.23 xFIP. This was mostly over his second stint with the team, and he seemed... more comfortable. By the end of the year, he was one of the more reliable relievers the Cubs had on the roster. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Daniel Palencia should start with the Chicago Cubs in 2024, barring an offseason injury or mechanical issue rearing its head. Finishing with an average fastball over 98mph and an extension in the 92nd percentile, Palencia offers velocity in a bullpen that hasn't offered a lot of that in the recent past. Also, looking at his last 17 innings, Palencia began to settle in as a reliable reliever. There needs to be more than 17 innings to suggest he will continue that, and we know relievers can be volatile. Still, it's enough for me that Palencia should be given medium-leverage situations with the hope that he can become a reliable high-leverage arm throughout 2024. There's still some polish to look at for Palencia, however. Despite the velocity and the K/9, his chase rate was in the bottom 30th percentile, so increasing the swing and miss outside of the zone from Palencia would be great. It'll be interesting to see how the Cubs handle his pitch mix; he mixed in a handful of curveballs, sinkers, and changeups throughout the season and is trying to figure out how he's going to either pair that down or ramp up the usage of a specific pitch (for, example, his changeup to keep lefties honest) will be interesting. Those are the types of things that would help solidify Palencia as a true leverage reliever. Much like Luke Little, Daniel Palencia could survive with a few more walks than others, but he'll need to keep that in check. Ultimately, this is an excellent outcome from the Andrew Chafin trade. The Cubs turned a waiver claim in Chafin into a potentially controllable, leverage reliever. This is a scouting win for the Cubs. View full article

Man, Estrada just can't catch a break with injuries. He had closer stuff at the end of 2022. Wish the best for him.

I'll be honest and say I really don't care much about the 19 PA's at the MLB level. They were spread around a bunch of games and you had a 21 year old kid who was likely really trying to impress during important games and being a hero. The 30% K% in Iowa is a little concerning, but it's hard to tell what it really is. His first 15 games he had a 21.9% K%. His next 13 games he had a 41.7% K%, and this was coupled with a lot of poor contact. His final 6 games he was back down to a 26% K%, and he was killing the baseball. Was it a bad 13 games? He had 13 game stretches that sucked in AA, too (31.4% K% from June 21st - July 6th, as an example) and we know they didn't really mean much in the grand scheme. Was it AAA exploiting him? It's one of those things I'd trust the Cubs to decide on. Partly why I'm on the fence with where I think he needs to be. What I do entirely agree upon is that a lot of this should be decided upon based on the offseason. It's why I think today I'd put it at like 60/40 him making the team, but that 40% is a very real outcome. It's just too early for me to call it. I also admit part of this is likely biased; I spend far too much time with the MiLB teams so I know my inherent biases.

I'm on the fence. I can buy an argument that Pete Crow-Armstrong has a few things to work on at the plate. He's hyper aggressive and he does struggle on fastballs up (his swing plane is always going to struggle there). On the other hand, I don't think these are things he can't work on at the MLB level, and his defense and base running should offer such a stable floor for value. Conversely, I'm just not a fan of Tauchman. He was pretty punchless over his last 150-160 PAs, and I kind of expect that hitter to continue based on his past and his baseball savant page. The Cubs might be able to be okay with that kind of a player for a few months, but at the same time, it's that kind of a player (Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhart, Smyly),the "floor" players who ultimately hurt the Cubs in the first part of the season. Tauchman has a lot of the same issues and I'd prefer not seeing a repeat.

The one arm I'm convinced will make the BP is actually Palencia. A little foreshadowing for tomorrow's #15 prospect, but Palencia's last 17.2 IP last year were near lights out. I'd like to see Little make the BP as I think he's an absolute weapon, but if Hughes is back to form, you can make an argument he'll take the spot. But I think what Palencia does (100mph off the right side) is something we just don't have without him. Alzolay, Merryweather...are nice RHP arms, but Palencia is just a different beast with what he offers stuff wise. I think he's got an inside track at a spot. Agree with @Bertzon PCA: I think it's 60/40 he's on the MLB roster. There are some offseason outcomes where I can see him being traded (though I think it's unlikely) and some where he goes back to Iowa, but I think he'll likely take CF considering the options we don't have there. The Cubs love defense up the middle and PCA offers such an impressively high floor. Basically, he can suck offensively and still speed-and-d his way to 2 wins in CF. Varsho had an 85 wRC+ last season and finished with a 2.1 fWAR based on his defense and baserunning and that feels like a "worse case 2023" for PCA barring health.

Yeah, I think it's very likely he's a reliever. With how little he's pitched, I can see a world where he takes larger than expected steps forward as a starter if given the chance, but I think it's pretty unlikely. Any value the Cubs get out of Arias is a real win considering what he was, so I'm fine with either outcome; reliever or starter.

Yeah he's got funk to him. I think we'll probably always see a walk total in the 4.5 (ish) range because it's a bit hard to repeat. Thankfully, he's a high GB% profile, and with the powerful stuff and extension, his propensity to get K's and double plays (should) in theory help to negate that. He might be someone who you kind of struggle to want to bring into a jam that was already created, more so using him to start innings fresh, as well.

Luke Little put his name on the map when he was filmed in a YouTube short hitting well over 100mph on the gun. Years later, Luke Little, a former 4th-round selection from the ill-fated 2020 draft, made his MLB debut with the Cubs. How does he fit into the grand scheme of things for the 2024 Cubs? Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Entering 2023, Luke Little was still being deployed as a starting pitcher in the Chicago Cubs organization with the hope that one day, he could be a part of the rotation. After four starts in South Bend, however, Luke Little's trajectory was changed rapidly when he was moved to the bullpen, speeding up his ETA and leading him to speed run three levels on his way to pitch in a cup-of-coffee stint with the parent club in September. Looking back, Little's season is a bit strange, as it wasn't as if Luke Little was failing as a starter with South Bend, at least on the surface. After his first four starts, little had a microscopic 0.57 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings. The issue was the seven free passes Little also gave up, and the Cubs decided that the path forward for Little would be in the bullpen. While walks would continue to be an on-and-off issue for Luke Little, they rarely fell into "scary" territory. Only on three outings did Luke Little give up more than two walks, and one was in a two-inning stint. While imperfect, he tended to be able to limit and control the walks, showing improved command as he went. The switch to the bullpen put him on a collision course with the majors and he has sped up his ETA. It's easier to control walks in the bullpen, and as a left-handed pitcher capable of reaching the upper 90s with ease, Little's trajectory shot up like a rocket ship. Always a pitcher who posted high K/9 numbers, Little saw his strikeouts jump to over 16 per 9 innings pitched, just under 2 per inning. He was able to maintain this level at both AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa. He's also posted strong ground ball numbers, reaching 50%+ in Tennessee and over 40% in Iowa (in limited data). This shouldn't be surprising, as he throws two pitches, a fastball, and a sweeper, which should result in ground balls. This is the profile of a power arm out of the bullpen who could see high-leverage action if the walks remain in check. Little was promoted to the Chicago Cubs at the beginning of September and logged just under seven major league innings, striking out 12. Walks remained a slight concern, as Little issued four walks but never had an appearance where he walked more than one. He also continued to get ground balls and looked the part. Luke Little is special on the mound because he's huge, standing at 6"8", and averaged 96.6mph on his fastballs. His size and extension make that roughly 97mph fastball look more like a pitch coming in at roughly 100mph. While there is limited data, Little's extension (where Luke Little releases the ball) is in the 98th percentile of all MLB pitchers. This kind of velocity and stuff can help to mitigate the walks. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA I would be disappointed if Luke Little didn't start 2024 with the Cubs. If you argue that he shouldn't be trusted as the sole left-handed arm in the bullpen or the primary leverage lefty, that's fair. He needs to be on the MLB team because he's already on the 40-man roster and the stuff he has. The stuff is just too good to ignore. I think he should have been given a bit more leash last season, and I hope he gets that leash in 2024. I think Little has a leverage-type upside. Maybe he's not a "closer," but he's someone you can bring in later in the games and go to in important situations. There will always be a question with his walks, but you can survive with walks if you have great stuff in the bullpen. While this is not a comparison or a comp, Devin Williams, Aroldis Chapman, Alexis Diaz, and Josh Hader finished well above four walks per 9 innings pitched (and upwards) and still finished top-10 in reliever fWAR. You can survive with walks if you can strike out hitters at a high level and limit damage done, both of which Luke Little has the profile to do. On top of that, few pitchers have the fastball velocity and the extension on the release Little has. If I have one other question, it comes in the form of wondering how Little's fastball/sweeper will play against right-handers. Is Luke Little someone capable of attacking righties consistently? Or will we see another case of Hayden Wesneski or Adbert Alzolay, where their fastball/slider repertoire caused extreme splits? With that said, it's a question you only get if you give Luke Little a chance, one I hope he gets. View full article

Good walk down memory lane here with you guys!

He has five months. If the Cubs cannot use the 1,300 innings of data they already have on him at 3b in the MiLB over his career, plus 5 months of winter ball, work with coaches, daily ground balls, etc to determine if they think he's got a future at the position in the MLB, than the Cubs are not being run by the right people. You and I need baseball savant data to talk defense. The Chicago Cubs do not. How exactly do you think the Chicago Cubs came to the conclusion that Nick Madrigal could play 3b last offseason?

I think we have to accept that the way the Cubs behavior from 2021-2022 will likely be different over the next few years. If it was 2021, or 2022, I would think that he might try. But Dom Smith isn't young any more, and he's just bad. Even when the Cubs pickup players I think are bad, they're guys who were hovering around league average (for their position) wRC+.

Yeah, I think Juan Soto being traded sounds like a very likely thing. And I'd guess it's something they'd prefer to get done quicker rather than later. It gives them an offseason direction and a plan (probably why we're already getting rumors the Yankees may or may not have talked to the Padres already).