Jason Ross

Agreed. This feels about finished up. Probably why we're seeing Soto moving now, why Yamamoto is moving a bit now, and why yesterday the Cubs seemed to be more and more on the "outs".

Per Morosi: Ohtani will decide before the end of the weekend.

Morosi keeps pushing that. He's on an island, however. I'd love the Cubs to be in on Yamamoto. But Mooney and Sharma seem to think that's a pretty good no-go (and they're going to be closer to the Cubs) as well, Hoyer's comments on Yamamoto were nice, but not overly glowing. Maybe he's playing it coy, doesn't want to let the cat out of the bag. But just further pushes Morosi on that island for me.

This is Seidler's thread. And while Seidler may be a bit higher on Thorpe than some others, no one was talking like this on Wicks. I say this as a Wicks guy, myself.

I've seen slight bump in velo. Jarred Steidler of BA says his changeup is the best offspeed pitch in the entire MiLB and that he's probably too low on their list at 42. Seems really big on him. So I'd say a significant step up from Wicks who was never getting this kind of love. Lower than Horton, IMO. But that's probably the closest we have to Thorpe.

I mean, significantly worse overall. Thorpe is good, but is like "top-40" prospect good. James Woods is "top-10" prospect good on his own. Michael King is interesting, but he's over 28 and has 9 starts under his belt (though lots of relief appearances). Other prosects are likely to be fine, but not phenomenal. Overall, though, it's a lot for one year of Soto and better than I'd have expected by far if it ends up being those two and prospects.

Yeah. my issue is more in that the Cubs better players would be consistently rolling over and having to fill them in. I'm overall fine with having to always add things; should probably be the norm in today's game. The Cubs are already replacing their best hitter from last year in Bellinger (and while I think there's some smoke and mirrors in Bellingers wRC+, it's unlikely anyone the Cubs add matches that level) and their 2nd best SP (when healthy). I'm not really certain Hoskins gets two guaranteed years, and what I expect is that it'll be a "paper" 2 years (like a Conforto-type opt out situation where it's only going to be multiple years if Hoskins isn't good). So with a Glasnow/Hoskins offseason, you're probably replacing, in 2025, your most talented SP (though Steele may out fWAR him by health, perhaps) and maybe your best hitter again. It becomes a trying task. If they go with Belt as well, it could be 2 of your 4 best hitters, or so, as well. It'd be nice to see the Cubs a bit more...settled at the top of the list. As right now it seems as though this is the second offseason in a row that the Cubs are in a pretty decent need of "impactful star types" and will instead fill out a team of one year players, secondary guys and what not. Part of it what's available, which I can understand. But the Cubs also can't continue to do this, IMO, every offseason. I'm all for not blocking prospects with non-premium players, but it'd really be nice for the Cubs to get a truly damn premium player for once (Swanson, while I think is better than I suspected, remains a bit lower than premium for me, still. He's a good player, but doesn't rise to that level. I can understand if someone feels that he does, however). I've said it a few times, and I'll repeat: I also understand part of this is just, initial, disappointment of once again missing out on Ohtani, missing out out on Soto, sitting out on Yamamoto.

Thorpe is much closer to Horton.

Per Heyman and Jack Curray of YES Network: Soto trade to Yankees "likely"

I would hope they would, but I don't trust this team to not, either. With the amount of one year deals that seem likely would roll off next year ($25m in Glasnow, probably $16-$18m in Hoskins, probably another contract or two well, also Hendricks..) and the prospect crew the Cubs have who will likely be ready in the next 12 months to take some of these spots (Horton, Brown, Shaw, Caissie, PCA, Alcantara)...it feels like a perfect storm for a reset. Especially when you listen to Hawkins comments about not blocking prospects...with the only "longer term" option being the slightly cheaper, slightly safer, slightly lower upside Shoto Imanaga being the one player who will be here next year from the offseason. I can admit, I may be being a bit defeatest, but it feels like the Cubs are getting a bit stuck in "second tier offseason" limbo here to an extent. At least personally, it feels like we're barreling towards a third offseason in a row where the Cubs will be truly lacking "elite, impactful long term talent" while having, in theory, lots of money and prospects to spend. I do hope this changes; just because we're missing on, what seems like Ohtani, likely missing on Soto and likely sitting out on Yamamoto, doesn't mean the Cubs can't pull in some talent that might be off the radar and available in a trade that could really shake this up.

Yeah, Thorpe is a dude. If it's true Thorpe goes, that's a heavy price. I love Soto, but I wouldn't trade Horton for a year of him.

I will also say this: I'm a little concerned right now with how the Cubs plan on going over the LT this season. I think we all know the goal will be to reset that number as soon as possible (for better or worse, that's how the Cubs do things). If the team is going to miss on Ohtani (which seems increasingly likely) and will sit out on Yamamoto, it feels likely the Cubs will do so with a host of short term, one year things. Hoskins, Glasnow, maybe Belt, etc, causing all of these spots to once again, need replacing 365 days from today. They will likely struggle to replace these players if they're going to boogey-man the LT next offseason, and while a healthy bump in payroll is likely the only way to improve on an 83 win season with the holes they have, it's a little disconcerting if they're once again having to play the "fill out the roster a bunch" game with more limitations. It feels a little too dependent on every prospect the Cubs have hitting. And I say this as "the prospect guy". I love PCA, Horton, Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, etc. But some of these guys aren't going to be good enough.

Exactly my thoughts. This is very dependent on the word "payroll" for me.

I don't think it's fair to assume there's "something wrong with Ohtani" because he wants to do things his way and it's not the way others want him to do it. I would also say this secrecy crap isn't being blown out of proportion...pay attention to how the Dodgers have responded to Robert's comments...they don't seem enthused. I think we just have to accept Shohei wants to do this in a different way (honestly, it seems very much like how Seiya Suzuki did it. We all forget how absolutely silent that entire thing was). That's fine.

I think you've got a blind spot here, Tool. Let's not forget, the Cubs went through this same process in the same way (less public because Seiya Suzuki was less of a prize) with Suzuki. Literally zero connections, not even mentioned. Then...boom...Cubs signed him. 3 weeks ago no one even knew the Cubs met with Counsell. They waited it out, snuck in, offered him a literal record deal, and got him. Ohtani's recruitment was always going to be smoke and mirrors. If the goal was "no leaks" than frankly, any report that suggested the Cubs weren't doing much could have been seen as a good thing; it meant they were being secretive. I really want Ohtani here. I get it. I want him bad. But I think we're letting our perceptions and our frustrations of the Cubs in the past creep in with a smoke and mirrors to make us think the Cubs aren't earnest here. In part, the Cubs deserve this to a bit because I think there are times they haven't been. With that said, I do think the Cubs were earnest here. I don't think they went in and lowballed him for the press. They don't get brownie points for that, but I won't hate on them if they lose this one. The Dodgers were always the perceived favorites. I'll be mad about an offseason at the end of the day if they fart around, too. Don't worry about that.

I think we should clarify here: 1. Bob Nightengale said the Cubs were out on Ohtani because they balked at $500m. This has yet to be supported by another claim. Sharma and Mooney said nothing of the sort in their article. The did use the word "pivot" but more in a "this is the contingency plan" kind of way, and not that the Cubs were actively doing that. 2. It does, however, seem the Cubs will pass on the Yamamoto market. It's looking like $300m+ That's from Mooney and Sharma, and those guys are close to the Cubs and very reliable.

This feels like a leap to support a perceived notion that the Cubs are not earnestly involved in the Ohtani sweeps. You're welcome to your views, Tool. I also know you're an intelligent person and deep down, you know just how often Bob Nightengale is just blatantly, and obviously wrong. He's on an island right now that is being supported by no one. I remain skeptical the Cubs will sign Ohtani. I even got a little pessimistic earlier today, started, by Nightengale, myself. But I think logic should dictate that when Nightengale is on an island, we go into those reports with heavy skepticism until someone else reliable supports it. To date, we have Nightengale saying one things, and Sharma, Mooney, Rogers, Heyman, and Levine saying another. At least as of right now. And sure, maybe this time Bob Nightengale has the scoop! But it's far more likely that the 5, far more reliable reporters aren't in the dark here.

He did. Word for word "I wouldn't completely discount Soto. I put him back in the mix...if the Cubs strike out on Ohtani". That's not a "they're out on Ohtani" that's an if. Meaning...they're in at some level. I think Jed is mad because he doesn't want people to think the Cubs are out on Ohtani. Look at the horsefeathers show reactions we have gotten here simply because Bob (on an island) said the Cubs wouldn't go to $500m. The Cubs were already a long shot here, and we knew that. But it's one thing to put a market equivalent contract on the table and lose to the favored Dodgers and it's another to make it seem like the Cubs were so ridiculous they were wasting everyone's time with a contract $50m below what everyone else offered. If the Cubs have been involved in the way, for example, Sharma suggested 2 days ago (he suggested they wouldn't be outbid) and people threw hissy fits thinking they cheaped out...I'd be pissed too, if I were Jed. I don't think the Ohtani camp is really upset at speculation of who's "in". I do think they want their meetings kept quiet (why they might be more upset at things like Roberts).

Where did they say they're out on Ohtani? I just read their article. It does say they're likely not going to go into Yamamoto. I promise you, there's not a word in that article suggesting they're out on Ohtani.

Well, I love you Dfan, but this is also why you don't need to read into articles if you can't read them in full. The entire article is basically this line: "Though the Cubs are always kicking around ideas and thinking through contingency plans, here are some names to consider, based on information from league sources:" It's an article that doesn't say anything about the Cubs and where they stand with Ohtani. It just is looking at other players the Cubs may or may not pursuit.

I don't think Nightengale deserves the benefit of the doubt here. Bruce Levine, Jesse Rogers, and Jon Heyman have all said the Cubs remain involved in Shohei Ohtani currently. Sharma and others have suggested the Cubs would put together very large packages for Ohtani. Nightengale has a rampant history of being wrong and seems to be on an island here. Either, Nightengale suddenly has a reliable, high ranking Cub source, or, it's another case in a long line of "being wrong". It's easy to fall into the "I don't like this reporter because he's providing information I don't want to hear" thing, but this is Bob Nightengale.

This is impressive even for Nightengale.

Might. They were rumored to want to get 2 OF'ers. So likely just one of Bellinger or Soto, but I think that's kind of always what they were shooting for.