Jason Ross

AAA has been filled more and more with talent. But actually, the guys I am worried about exploiting approach issues are the guys who have existed in MLB organizations because they're crafty, hard workers, who win on the margins. That's who beats guys with approach. I think Matt Shaw can hit stuff. What I don't know is if Matt Shaw can learn how to decide when to swing. Just because it's a strike doesn't mean you need to swing. Just because it's 1-0 doesn't mean you have to swing. Matt Shaw has to learn what a good strike is. It's why I think AAA is where he'll face that issue. It's why someone like Davis has struggled in AAA to a large degree. There's velo in AA, but guys in AAA know how to get the fastball up at the hands. Their command is better. They are more developed.

I don' believe the Cubs are trading Nico Hoerner anytime shortly, and certainly not in the middle of next season. The Cubs are seemingly aiming high on their wishlist this offseason, and I'm getting a feeling that they're at least looking to be good, and not just "maybe good". Teams who are looking to be good rarely trade controllable assets who put up 3+ fWAR mid-season. The team also, seemingly, adores middle-field defense, and Hoerner shines there. I can see an argument that the Cubs may need to make choices next offseason, but right now, the Cubs aren't acting like a team who will be dealing him in July. That leaves 3b. The Cubs have had recent success with Madrigal to 3b, and Matt Shaw is athletic enough to handle the position in theory. How the translation would work is not something I can predict outside of suggestion, but we do know that upon reaching Tennessee, Shaw starting getting time at 3b. I don't think it's a coincidence. The path to playing time with the Cubs right now goes through 3b, not 2b. An injury to Nico Hoerner can change the math here. Lots of variables. But I do think Shaw would be on a track to play 3b moreso than a track to play 2b in 2024.

Yeah I tend to sit on the fence with how quick Shaw will promote. I don't think he'll struggle in Tennessee, personally and expect he won't stick there long, either. I'm guessing if things go well and he remains healthy, that he'll make his debut in Iowa by early-mid-May (the Cubs like to move some pitchers around in early May, and I could see him being apart of this type of movement). Iowa will be the kicker for his approach questions. I think there is a difference in the PCA and the Matt Shaw equations, however, which changes the timeline. PCA had Cody Bellinger and a hot Mike Tauchmann to contend with. I'm not sure Matt Shaw is going to have that contention. Madrigal doesn't have a "get super hot" profile to him (and even when he's "hot" it's likely a lot of ugly hits) and Patrick Wisdom tends to struggle if given bulk-work (he seemed to do much better with curated and planned PA's in the 2nd half of last year versus his "Babe Ruth for 1 week, useless for 2 months" version). I think Shaw's biggest contention may come from BJ Murray and not the Cubs current MLB roster. In that vein, Matt Shaw on a "Kyle Schwarber" type of a route to the MLB, where he saw no more than 58 games at any level, promoted in early July for the playoff push, seems pretty possible. All of that changes if the Cubs bring in a player capable of filling 3b. To a lesser degree, Jeimer Candelario could fill the "Cody Bellinger" roll of "could play one position or another" if they brought him back. But I've got a sneaking feeling the Cubs won't be adding much to 3b in FA or via trade currently.

Good thing with the Cubs, and *knock on wood*, is that they baby their MilB arms, hard. There plenty of limits for pitchers to hit and they yank them pretty hard. Throw more than ~30 some pitches in an inning? You're done. Throw 5 IP? Hit the shower. I know many people don't like this style and would prefer arms to go longer, but the Cubs have generally avoided major injuries throughout their system and I think the way they handle their arms is part of it. Would it be cool to see guys all ready to go 6+? Maybe, But I'd rather have an arm ready to throw 5 IP than missing the next 18 months because of TJS.

I'll give Madrigal some credit for a minute: regardless of motion/etc, Madrigal put in hard work over the offseason and did something I thought was comical; he became an above average fielding 3b. He increased his arm strength into the 46%, he posted elite OAA range and finished with a +8 DRS (which adds arm into the equation). It's 500+ innings and it's not enough data to make definitive statements...but if he can be that kind of a defensive 3b...I'm both happily shocked and glad to be wrong.

Doubt it. Unlike last year, the Cubs don't really have a group of 40-man choices to make. Perlaza elected for FA, Vazquez was added, the rest are either okay to be picked, or highly unlikely to be picked. Cubs won't add-40 men guys with the offseason I (think/ihope) they'll have to eat spots.

When the 2022 draft concluded, many were left a little bummed out with the Cubs selection of Cade Horton at the top of the draft. But Horton's selection allowed the Cubs enough money to get Jackson Ferris. How did Ferris' first season turn out? Image courtesy of Jackson Ferris 2023 Season Review Jackson Ferris entered the 2022 draft with enough hype and helium that some mocked him for going to teams in the late first round. As Ferris "slid" down the board, it became more apparent that it was because a team higher in the draft had saved just enough slot money in their war chest to get the prized pitcher to fall to them in the second. That team was the Chicago Cubs. A left-handed pitcher who already stood 6'4", there was lots of projection in Ferris' body. It was easy to look at the lanky lefty on draft day and assume a team could unlock some added velocity, work with his breaking pitches, and create a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation style stuff on the backend. Part of the issue, however, lay in the mechanics. A bit of "funk" comes with this kind of a pick, and learning how to create consistency was going to be part of the problem. 2023 saw the Cubs somewhat aggressively pushing Ferris to Myrtle Beach. One of the top-lefties in the last class, this was aggressive, but probably where he belonged (and did he show he belonged!). As discussed previously, Myrtle Beach is a good place for pitchers in general, but it takes work for a 19-year-old pitcher at any level. It was clear, however, that the left-handed hurler would be good from his first turn on the mound, striking out seven and walking only one over three shutout innings. This foreshadowed things to come, as Ferris would finish striking out well over a hitter per inning throughout his 56 innings. More impressively, he surrendered only a single home run all season (and it took until August), likely due to his strong ground ball rate. The season wasn't all perfect peaches and rainbows for Ferris, as he saw a high walk rate of five hitters per nine innings pitched. There was a 20-inning stretch between July 26th and August 31st (his penultimate start), which saw the pitcher walk 17 hitters across just 20 innings. This downside comes with a pitcher with a lot of "funk" in his delivery. It's also what comes with the territory of a 19-year-old kid making his first foray into professional baseball. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA I fully expect the Cubs will give Jackson Ferris the bump to South Bend. Regardless of the walk rate, 2023 was a wonderful season for the young arm. Ferris is just too good for low-A, and his struggles are more with himself than with kids at that level. South Bend is not so pitcher-friendly and should give another level of competition. As we move forward, I expect the Cubs to work specifically on adding velocity and working on his mechanics. Over the last few years, few organizations have done a better job unlocking pitcher's velocity like the Chicago Cubs, so this is likely a place of emphasis. Standing well over six feet tall, Ferris offers tons of extension on top of his impressive velocity (sitting 92-95 mph usually and the ability to touch a few mph higher). If the Cubs can coax this average up a little to the 94-96 mph range, they'll have an arm around the top of the leaderboard for left-handed starting pitchers league-wide. The mechanics will be the biggest sticking point. The good thing about a "funky" delivery is that it can keep hitters uncomfortable in the box and makes pitch-tracking harder. However, this comes at the cost of consistency, and working on ensuring that the consistency improves will likely be important moving forward. Jackson's stuff is good enough to stand on its own, so the Cubs may want to clean up his delivery a bit. Regarding an ETA, we're still a few years off from seeing Jackson Ferris in Chicago. A full year across levels in South Bend and Tennessee is still lying in front of him, but he seems like the kind of arm who could be a quick mover if he can hone his control. There's legitimate top-of-the-rotation stuff and ceiling in Ferris's arm. With all starters comes every caveat of "Can he stay healthy?" so there will be a bit of luck involved here, too. Overall, he's a name that could pop up as a top-100 name in mid-2024, and by the end of the season, he could have the kind of stuff to force his way near the top 50. View full article

I wouldn't. Based on the signaling from the rumors, the Cubs seem to be prioritizing other positions than 3b this offseason, and even seem looking for a new home for Christopher Morel (who, I guess, in theory could be a 3b, but the Cubs don't appear to think he is). They'll need someone to play there, and while I'd expect Nick Madrigal gets the nod most days, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni will probably get games there too as primary backups, at least until someone like Shaw or Murray proves ready. All of this can change between today and 5 months from now, but I just wouldn't assume Wisdom gets the NT.

It depends. I think there's a world where Madrigal is the primary 3b and the Cubs are still pretty fine. For example, I think the Rangers were a good enough team, but they weren't a juggernaut. They had Leody Tavares pick up 143 games in CF with a 98 wRC+ and was worth 2.3 fWAR. Madrigal can probably batting average and defense his way to close to 2 fWAR. I'm not advocating for him at 3b, but I think they *can* get away with him there. They'll probably have to for half if not more of the season barring something unforseen right now, as I don't think the Cubs will go in for Chapman based on what we've heard so far they're looking for this offseason, and outside of him, I can't find a readily available 3b upgrade (maybe Candelario, but I'm not sure I buy him as a 3b much longer. He's not good defensively).

I think it's likely Nick Madrigal will be the opening day 3b. The Cubs won't be able to solve all of their issues and will likely have to make concessions. They seem to be aiming big at DH, and appear to be interested in a 1b. They seem to be interested in a SP and they don't seem to believe much in Morel playing 3b. I think 3b is much more of a "back burner" position in this offseason. Not to suggest it's impossible or they 100% wont, but the Cubs have decent-to-below average ready-made at the 3b right now and multiple prospects who will be close to the MLB come mid-season. Then add in Counsell's past. He ran out Jace Peterson, a defense-first-low-offense 3b in Milwaukee in 2022, so there's some basis in a Nick Madrigal type in our new manager's recent past preferences. End result, I think Madrigal is the most likely OD 3b as of now. Things can change, but I'm assuming that if the Cubs could accomplish Plan A this offseason, that Madrigal would be the starter at 3b in late-March (and him being replaced by Shaw or Murray come mid-June).

Canario? He has 17 PA's at the MLB level. Over the last 2 seasons, only three left fielders have been worth more fWAR than Ian Happ in the MLB. It feels very unfair to claim a player who has 17 PA's in his entire MLB career is somehow better than a 3.5 fWAR LF'er already. The jury is entirely out on Alexander Canario. I'm not sure his ceiling is even above a 3,5 fWAR OF'er, personally. Which isn't to say he can't reach it, but I think we have to be fair to both Canario in terms of our expectations, and Happ who's a pretty good player.

Yeah, I tend to agree with Tom here; the Cubs have a LF'er who's been worth 7 fWAR the last 2 seasons combined and realistically, very consistent. He's posted 120 and 118 wRC+'s, been healthy and provided above average defense in LF. I think Canario is interesting, but his strikeout issues are caution to pause. Canario might be a 3.5 fWAR LF'er but there's significant risk. Time for the Cubs to win now. I won't shed tears if the Cubs trade Canario and turn him into another useful MLB player.

Probably starts making a few teams less desirable. Maybe a team like SF is less interesting to Ohtani now, but could make a team like, the Yankees, more enticing. I'll say this: almost all of the news I've heard this offseason helps the Cubs. That the Cubs are aggressive. That the Cubs are willing to spend. That he may not want a super-long term contract and might prefer shorter term. That geography doesn't matter as many thought. If you wanted the news cycle to match up with giving you hope the Cubs could make this happen, than it's pretty much everything you'd ask for. We'll see where we go from here, but it's hard not to have legitimate hope, however fleeting it may be, that the Cubs could be in on this at the end.

Probably time to start keeping all Ohtani news in one place. Per Morosi: Ohtani is more concerned with quality of team over geography

A winter league injury to Alexander Canario's foot and shoulder put his 2023 season in doubt. The powerful outfielder made his MLB debut last season without letting it derail him. What does Canario's path in 2024 hold? Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review As the 2022 season came to a close, few prospects had more end-of-the-season helium than Alexander Canario. Showing improved plate discipline and contact ability, not only did many believe Canario was on the path to an early season 2023 call-up, but others believed his 2022 was a key cog in how the Cubs handled their entire offseason. Instead, in late October, as the outfielder was legging out a ground ball in the Dominican Winter League, he slipped on the bag, fracturing his ankle and injuring his shoulder. Many were concerned his entire 2023 was over. Despite the injury, Canario worked hard over the offseason rehabbing and got back on the field by mid-June. Short rehab stints in the Arizona Complex League and South Bend came with mixed results, but they didn't stop him from finally returning to Iowa on July 14th. In somewhat of a mixed-bag season in Iowa, the electric hitter showed what makes him so much fun and why people hesitate about his bright future. One fear people had was that the shoulder injury would significantly sap the power out of his bat for the season while he rebuilt strength. The good news is that even though it wasn't immediately shown, this concern would be alleviated by the end of his time in Iowa. In just 36 games, Canario hit eight home runs and 12 doubles, punctuated by a 14-game span that saw him to the bulk of his work, whacking 13 of these extra-base hits alone (six home runs and seven doubles) during that period alone. It took a bit, but the power was back, and Canario was teeing off on Triple-A pitching. This power output came with some questions. In 2022, Canario struck out around 19% of the time, a massive improvement over the near 30% rates he had been hovering at during his lower-level stints. In 2023, the strikeouts returned, as he posted a 28% strikeout rate in Iowa. Even during his 14-game span, which saw those 13 extra-base hits, Canario still struck out 30% of the time. Between August 4th and August 30th (his last game in Iowa), Alexander struck out in every game he played. Hitters who strike out over 30% of the time have a much harder path to success, so seeing Canario revert to being a higher strikeout hitter was problematic. Something that looked like it had been solved the year prior was rearing its ugly head again. Regardless of the strikeouts, the Cubs promoted the outfielder to the MLB team at the start of September. Blocked by a red-hot Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ at the corners, and with Mike Tauchmann and Cody Bellinger playing center field, little playing time was available. In a short stint, Canario saw 17 PAs in Chicago, much like this 2023 season: a mixed bag. Hitting his first career major league home run in dramatic style (an absolute bomb of a grand slam) but striking out eight times, the good and the bad were both on display. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA As of writing this, Alexander Canario is out of options, meaning he must be on an MLB roster come Opening Day. There remains a chance that Major League Baseball will award the Cubs an extra option due to the injury suffered, which would allow the Cubs (or another team) to keep him in AAA if they wanted, but it has yet to be decided. That said, if he isn't given that option year, it makes the 2024 outlook for him in Chicago easier. In a perfect world, sitting a 23/24-year-old outfielder on the bench for much of the season isn't a comforting idea, as you'd prefer him playing somewhere. The Cubs, however, have most of the same roadblocks in place for Canario they did at the end of the 2023 campaign, though they are potentially swapping Bellinger for Pete Crow-Armstrong. DH is also murky, with Christopher Morel being the incumbent at the position and the Cubs being linked consistently with Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, who would likely slot into that space. Ultimately, a trade may make the most sense for the Cubs and Canario. It wouldn't be a trade you'd be excited to make, but if another team values him as a starting corner outfielder, then the Cubs will have the opportunity to turn him into a player they may use more. As a primary corner outfielder or a designated hitter, he's in a challenging space. You have to scramble a few eggs to make an omelet, and the Cubs will have to make a few hard decisions on interesting prospects this offseason. Obviously, this could change if an extra option year is granted, but we'll have to wait and see if that occurs. There's a future where Canario turns into a starting MLB outfielder, and the upside of being a 30+ home run hitter is real. How the Cubs navigate the powerful slugger will be something to monitor over the offseason. Will he be a 4th outfielder? Will he be dealt? Will he get another option and get a chance to work in Iowa? We'll have to see. View full article

My guess is it's prospect pedigree. I agree, Chase Strumpf is a nothing burger to me. He's org depth. There's some glove and power there, and maybe some day he pops up for a 50 game run on a bad team as a 26th guy...but he can go. In the end, there's not a name on this list I'd protect. If a team thinks Aliendo or Franklin can survive on an MLB roster all year, have it. Arias is too green for someone to stash and "phantom injury" (he needs innings not rest). I think everyone on here is either unpickable, or okay to go. Vazquez was the one I'd have worried about (and I'd have considered Perlaza if he wasn't a free agent). But that's about it for the time being.

Coming up through the MiLB, he's had over 1,000 innings at the position, and likely far more practice over there as well. Whatever is in the data, the scouting, the internals...the Cubs just don't seem to like. They had a pretty easy hole for Morel to fill at 3b last year and he got 5 games there. I've read a few places that people question his arm slot when he throws, and that it doesn't really work well for 3b, so it could be that, but I think there might be a bit more to it as well. Morel, a highly athletic runner, just sucks in the OF. There seems to be a disconnect there between his reaction time, route running, etc and his natural athleticism, and I wonder if the same is true at 3b. 2b allows for a bit easier of a time, enough to perhaps make up for that lack of instinctual reaction.

Yeah, I think the likelihood for Caissie is that the path to playing time isn't in RF (though one injury post-July this summer and any time before 2026 may highly change the equation for a while) with the Cubs. I'm all for getting him time at 1b. I just don't want to "move" him there yet. There's value in having him continue to refine his skills in RF for the time being (in case of that injury).

I mean, your point has been his OF abilities to a degree, though. You've called him "slow" and brought up his FG defense scouting report. That's his current defense. But where do I play him right now? In RF. He's 21 years old. Having him get experience and get better there is a real thing still. The Cubs will have injuries at RF or in LF sometime. He's not MLB ready today and likely won't be until the end of next year if at all (I love Caissie but I expect him to have a rough introduction for a bit in AAA). Where do I play him in 2025? Well, again, lots of options. Maybe over that offseason then you move him to 1b for a year or two. Maybe he goes back to RF. There's lots of things that can happen between today and then.

You do realize how outdated those FG scouting reports tend to be, right? Caissie has received very nice updates on his defense this year. I'll believe those over a scouting report FG probably hasn't updated much.

Simply spitballing, but it feels like a Morel/young SP swap would make sense in the event the Cubs signed, say, an expensive Japanese DH. It would help fill the hole left behind by Stroman, the Cubs then fill DH with Ohtani, sign Hoskins...bingo, bango...most of your offseason done.

Per Sharma in The Athletic "it is starting to feel like it would be a big upset if the Cubs dont pull off at least one big trade" this offseason.

"Shohei Ohtani's highly anticipated free agency might not last that long," ESPN wrote. "A handful of general managers who are expected to be in the market and spoke to ESPN this week were under the impression that Ohtani will choose his next destination relatively quickly, perhaps before the end of the winter meetings, which take place Dec. 4-6 in Nashville, Tennessee." https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/shohei-ohtani-mlb_free-agency-soon/1670812/